Germany’s blue‑chip DAX 40 index ended the final trading day of November with modest gains, even as fresh data showed inflation rising more than expected and consumers pulling back. A proposed multibillion‑euro takeover by Deutsche Börse and a large defence order for mid‑cap Renk were among the biggest stories shaping the German stock market going into the weekend of 29 November 2025. [1]
DAX 40 Ends November Firmer but the Month Still in the Red
On Friday, 28 November 2025, the German stock market closed slightly higher:
- The Germany Stock Market Index (DE40 / DAX) finished around 23,837 points, up roughly 0.29% on the day – a rise of about 69 points. [2]
- Across Europe, the STOXX 600 gained 0.23%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 added about 0.25% and 0.3%, respectively, capping a strong week and extending the continent’s rally on hopes of imminent U.S. rate cuts. [3]
Despite the positive close on Friday, November remained slightly negative for the DAX, according to index commentary from Frankfurt and MarketScreener: the index staged a strong recovery in the final week, but not quite enough to erase losses from the early‑month sell‑off driven by concerns over an AI‑stock “bubble” and global volatility. [4]
From a longer‑term perspective, however, German equities are still having a strong 2025. A Reuters poll of strategists this week noted that:
- The DAX is up about 17.9% year‑to‑date, putting it among the better‑performing major indices.
- Analysts expect the index to climb another ~9.7% to around 25,500 by the end of 2026, helped by cheaper valuations relative to U.S. markets and anticipated improvements in Europe’s economic backdrop. [5]
That optimism for 2026 sits awkwardly alongside the macro data investors had to digest on 28 November.
Inflation Surprises to the Upside as Consumers Cut Back
Friday’s session in Frankfurt was dominated by a batch of key German data releases, painting a mixed picture for the economy – and by extension, the German stock market outlook:
- Inflation:
- EU‑harmonised consumer prices accelerated to 2.6% year‑on‑year in November, the highest reading since February and above the 2.4% expected by economists.
- Core inflation (excluding food and energy) eased slightly to 2.7% from 2.8%, suggesting underlying price pressures are slowly cooling even as the headline rate ticks up. [6]
- Labour market:
- Seasonally‑adjusted unemployment rose by 1,000 to 2.973 million people, far less than the 5,000 increase forecast, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 6.3%.
- Job vacancies fell to 624,000, about 44,000 fewer than a year earlier, underlining that labour demand is fading even though a sharp deterioration has been avoided so far. [7]
- Retail sales:
- Retail sales dropped 0.3% month‑on‑month in October, confounding expectations for a small rise and reinforcing the narrative of cautious consumers ahead of the Christmas season. [8]
- Import prices:
- Import prices were 1.4% lower than a year earlier in October, continuing a trend of subdued imported inflation, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). [9]
Earlier in the week, the Ifo business climate index fell to 88.1 in November (from 88.4), with the institute warning that companies have “little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon”. [10]
At the same time, consumer sentiment has shown only a modest improvement. A survey by GfK/NIM indicated that the headline consumer sentiment index edged up from −24.1 to −23.2 heading into December, helped by a slight rebound in willingness to buy – but households remain cautious about income prospects and the broader economy. [11]
Implication for markets:
- The data mix – higher‑than‑expected inflation, soft retail sales, and a flat labour market – complicates the picture for the European Central Bank. It reinforces the view that rate cuts in the euro area are still some way off, even as investors increasingly price in U.S. Federal Reserve easing. [12]
- For German equities, it underlines a familiar theme of strong stock performance against a weak domestic economy, a disconnect highlighted earlier this month in analysis showing the DAX approaching record highs despite near‑stagnant GDP growth and only modest disinflation. [13]
Deutsche Börse’s Allfunds Bid Dominates the Corporate Story
The biggest single corporate narrative for the German market going into the 28–29 November weekend is the proposed acquisition of Allfunds Group by Deutsche Börse AG, the Frankfurt‑listed exchange operator and heavyweight DAX constituent.
Deal terms and strategic logic
Deutsche Börse has confirmed it is in exclusive talks to acquire Allfunds, a European fund distribution platform headquartered in Madrid and listed in Amsterdam. [14]
Key points:
- The non‑binding proposal being discussed values Allfunds at about €8.80 per share, made up of €4.30 in cash, €4.30 in new Deutsche Börse shares, plus a €0.20 dividend for the current financial year. The structure implies an equity value of roughly €4.7 billion based on pre‑announcement pricing. [15]
- The Financial Times reports that, taking account of the share reaction, the deal is effectively a €5.3 billion transaction – which would be the largest acquisition in Deutsche Börse’s recent history and bigger than its €3.9 billion purchase of Danish software firm SimCorp in 2023. [16]
- Allfunds distributes funds with more than €1.7 trillion in assets, connecting asset managers and banks across Europe’s fragmented investment‑fund landscape. [17]
Market reaction:
- Allfunds shares jumped over 20% on Thursday 27 November, their biggest single‑day move on record. [18]
- Deutsche Börse’s own stock rose nearly 3% to around €228, making it one of the best‑performing large‑cap names and contributing meaningfully to the DAX’s gains into Friday. [19]
Breakingviews commentary at Reuters notes that Deutsche Börse may be better placed than past suitor Euronext to close a deal, given its existing fund‑services platform and scope for cost synergies. Analysts estimate that combining businesses could generate post‑tax operating profit of around €430 million by 2027, roughly matching Allfunds’ cost of capital and supporting the investment case. [20]
Why it matters for the German stock market
For investors in German stocks and the DAX 40:
- The deal would deepen Deutsche Börse’s revenue streams in data and fund services, helping to reduce its dependence on trading volumes and market volatility – a strategic priority for most global exchanges. [21]
- A successful takeover would mark another step in creating a pan‑European platform for fund distribution, potentially strengthening Frankfurt’s role in European capital markets at a time when the EU is pushing for deeper integration. [22]
- In the short term, Deutsche Börse’s outperformance is providing upward pressure on the DAX, partially offsetting weakness in more cyclical and domestically exposed sectors. [23]
Defence Contractor Renk: Big Order, Soft Share Price
Away from the DAX, Renk Group AG, a defence and propulsion specialist listed in the MDAX, delivered one of the day’s more striking headlines on 28 November:
- Renk announced a contract in the high double‑digit million‑euro range to supply spare parts and service packages for military vehicles to an unnamed Eastern European country, with deliveries due to start before year‑end. [24]
However, the share price reaction was muted to negative:
- Despite the sizeable order, Renk’s shares fell around 0.7% intraday, underperforming the broader market. Commentary from dpa‑AFX and MarketScreener highlighted that defence stocks were not in favour on the day, as hopes of progress in Russia‑Ukraine peace talks continued to weigh on the sector. [25]
For German investors, Renk’s move underscores two points:
- Order books in Germany’s defence industry remain robust, aided by higher NATO spending and rearmament in Eastern Europe.
- At the same time, market sentiment toward defence shares has turned more cautious, with prices now reacting as much to geopolitical headlines and peace talk expectations as to fundamental news on contracts or earnings. [26]
Delivery Hero and Other Movers: Headline‑Driven Trading
Another notable German name in Friday’s European session was Delivery Hero, the food‑delivery group now in the MDAX:
- Delivery Hero shares surged about 14.6% after a report that investors are pushing management to consider selling all or parts of the business, prompting speculation about strategic options and potential asset disposals. [27]
Across the broader European market:
- The Basic Resources sector gained around 1.2% on Friday, helped by copper prices hitting record highs, giving a lift to resource‑linked stocks many German investors hold via pan‑European indices and ETFs. [28]
- Banks were the best‑performing sector in November, up more than 4% for the month and enjoying their fifth consecutive monthly rise, as investors rotated from expensive tech stocks into financials with more attractive valuations. [29]
- By contrast, aerospace and defence stocks in Europe fell more than 8% this month, the weakest sector, as expectations of progress in Ukraine peace talks weighed on demand expectations for defence hardware. [30]
For the German stock market, this means:
- Index performance is being increasingly determined by idiosyncratic stories – takeover speculation, activist pressure, or sector‑specific moves – rather than a broad directional macro trend.
- Sector positioning matters: investors overweight banks, exchanges and resource players have enjoyed tailwinds, while those concentrated in defence or certain consumer names are facing headwinds despite Germany’s heavy rearmament plans. [31]
Technical Picture: Year‑End Rally Still Not Convincing
Local technical commentary from Frankfurt stresses that the late‑November rebound in the DAX index has not yet triggered the classic year‑end rally investors look for:
- A recent article on Wallstreet‑online noted that the DAX briefly dipped below a key support zone earlier in November, only to reclaim it intraday – a sign of nervous sentiment rather than a clean breakdown. [32]
- The subsequent upswing into late November has been accompanied by thin trading volumes, partly due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, suggesting limited market breadth and raising questions about how sustainable the move is. [33]
Previous analysis of the DAX’s medium‑term trend shows the index:
- Trading well above its 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages,
- Consolidating in a range roughly between 23,000 and 24,600,
- With strong resistance in the 24,600–25,000 area and key support around 23,000. [34]
In short, the German blue‑chip benchmark is still in an uptrend but stuck in a broad sideways band, with seasonal patterns arguing for a rally, while macro and technical signals urge caution.
Outlook: What 28–29 November Mean for the German Stock Market
As markets head into December with 29 November 2025 falling on a Saturday, investors in German equities face a nuanced environment:
- Macro headwinds persist
- Growth is expected to be only 0.2% in 2025 after two years of contraction, and business confidence has weakened again, according to both Ifo and labour‑market surveys. [35]
- Inflation is slightly above expectations and at a nine‑month high, which keeps the ECB in wait‑and‑see mode and limits immediate support from monetary policy. [36]
- Valuations still favour Europe (and Germany) over the U.S.
- The Reuters poll this week emphasised that European stocks remain meaningfully cheaper than their U.S. counterparts, and many strategists expect European indices – including the DAX – to deliver high single‑digit to low double‑digit gains in 2026. [37]
- Stock‑specific catalysts will likely drive performance
- The fate of Deutsche Börse’s Allfunds bid could significantly reshape the earnings profile of a key DAX constituent and the structure of Europe’s fund‑distribution market. [38]
- Defence and aerospace names like Renk may remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, while consumer‑ and tech‑linked names react strongly to any sign of change in global rate‑cut expectations or AI sentiment. [39]
- Key events to watch next week
Bottom Line
Between 28 and 29 November 2025, the German stock market has had to reconcile solid index gains with uncomfortable fundamentals:
- The DAX 40 is edging higher, supported by global risk appetite and high‑profile corporate moves like Deutsche Börse’s Allfunds push.
- At the same time, inflation, retail sales and labour‑market data remind investors that Germany’s domestic recovery remains fragile, and that earnings growth must increasingly come from global exposure, cost control and structural deals rather than organic local demand.
For now, the market’s message seems to be: cautious confidence. German equities are not pricing in a boom – but they are also not behaving as if Europe’s largest economy is stuck in permanent stagnation. The next weeks of data, deal‑making and geopolitical news will show whether the fragile year‑end optimism can harden into a more durable rally in 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. tradingeconomics.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. in.marketscreener.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.destatis.de, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.equiti.com, 14. www.deutsche-boerse.com, 15. www.deutsche-boerse.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.ft.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ft.com, 22. www.ft.com, 23. finimize.com, 24. www.renk.com, 25. www.onvista.de, 26. www.renk.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.wallstreet-online.de, 33. www.wallstreet-online.de, 34. www.equiti.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.ft.com, 39. www.marketscreener.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com
