Key takeaways
- DAX hovers near 24,000, trimming early declines; TecDAX edges up while MDAX slips.
- Zalando jumps after a Q3 sales beat and a new DFB (German FA) partnership; DHL Group tops profit forecasts; Commerzbank falls on a tax-driven profit drop.
- EU antitrust watchdog opens a probe into Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq over alleged coordination in derivatives—Deutsche Börse shares under pressure.
- Germany’s September industrial production rose +1.3% m/m, but missed expectations, tempering sentiment; Bund 10‑year yields hover ~2.67%.
Market at a glance (midday Frankfurt)
- DAX 40: recovered from an early dip and hovered near 24,030, roughly –0.1% around early afternoon as traders absorbed a heavy earnings docket. Intraday ranges clustered just above and below the 24k mark.
- TecDAX: +0.2% around 3,570, outperforming on strength in select tech/health names.
- MDAX: –0.6% near 29,200, lagging on banks and mid‑cap cyclicals.
- Rates: Germany’s 10‑year Bund yield ~2.67% as traders digested softer‑than‑expected output data.
- Backdrop: Europe traded mixed amid nerves around valuations and macro prints, even as Wall Street strength earlier in the week set a constructive tone.
Note: Levels are intraday and may change by the close.
Macro driver: A softer rebound in industry
Fresh from Destatis, industrial production for September rose +1.3% m/m, short of consensus (after a sharp drop in August). Automotive output rebounded, but broader three‑month momentum remains negative, reinforcing a “bumpy bottoming” narrative for German manufacturing. Stocks reacted with cautious relief rather than celebration. destatis.de+1
Big movers in the DAX
Surge: Zalando (+6–10% intraday)
- What happened: Q3 revenue +26.5% to €3.02bn, with GMV +21.6% (or +6.7% pro‑forma), helped by the About You acquisition. The company also unveiled a five‑year partnership with the German Football Association (DFB).
- Why it matters: A cleaner top‑line trajectory and sportswear push lifted sentiment; analysts flagged sales upside even as EBIT was broadly in line.
Strength: DHL Group (Deutsche Post) (+4–6% intraday)
- What happened: EBIT €1.5bn in Q3, above the ~€1.28bn consensus, despite a –2.3% revenue dip; guidance maintained. Management highlighted structural cost gains and pricing.
- Why it matters: Solid execution amid freight softness and trade frictions; investors also noted robust free cash flow trends in the company materials.
Weakness: Commerzbank (–2% to –3%)
- What happened: Q3 net profit €591m (–7.9% y/y), below expectations, as the tax rate jumped to 36% and costs rose. The bank lifted its 2025 net‑interest‑income outlook to €8.2bn and applied for a share buyback up to €600m, but shares fell on the miss.
- Stock move: Commerzbank traded lower; the stock was among the morning’s notable laggards in Frankfurt.
Under pressure: Deutsche Börse (–3% to –4%)
- What happened: The European Commission opened a cartel probe into Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq regarding alleged coordination in the derivatives space (listing, trading, and clearing). Shares fell on the headline.
- Stock move: Deutsche Börse ranked as a DAX underperformer, down roughly –3.8% at midday.
Cross‑currents shaping sentiment
- European equities: Region‑wide indices slipped earlier on valuation jitters and mixed earnings prints; Germany largely tracked the broader drift before paring losses.
- Regulation: Separately, BaFin imposed a record fine (~$52m) on JPMorgan over reporting lapses—adding to a busy regulatory tape that markets are monitoring for knock‑on effects.
- Bonds: The modest bid for Bunds after the output miss kept yields in check near 2.67%, cushioning equity multiples.
Sector snapshot
- E‑commerce & consumer: Zalando led DAX gainers on growth re‑acceleration.
- Logistics: DHL Group outperformed on earnings quality and guidance stickiness.
- Banks & exchanges: Commerzbank slipped on tax‑driven profits; Deutsche Börse fell on the EU probe.
- Tech/health: Broader TecDAX up modestly, aided by selective strength; yesterday’s Siemens Healthineers numbers (slight sales miss) remained a talking point.
What to watch next
- Earnings calendar: Infineon reports next week (Nov 12), followed by Siemens AG (Nov 13)—both potential catalysts for DAX sentiment.
- Macro: Follow‑through from today’s industrial production data and upcoming euro‑area prints for confirmation of a cyclical turn—or lack thereof.
