Updated December 9, 2025 – All figures in USD; information only, not investment advice.
Key takeaways
- GEV stock closed around $625.30, up about 0.55% on the day, with after‑hours trade pushing close to $668 and keeping shares within sight of their $677.29 52‑week high. [1]
- At its 2025 Investor Update in New York, GE Vernova raised its 2028 revenue target to $52 billion and its adjusted EBITDA margin goal to 20%, well above prior guidance of $45 billion and 14%. [2]
- Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance and issued 2026 guidance for $41–42 billion in revenue and 11–13% adjusted EBITDA margins, citing strong power demand, especially from AI and data‑center loads. [3]
- The board doubled the quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share starting with the Q1 2026 payout and expanded its share‑repurchase authorization to $10 billion from $6 billion. [4]
- Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive with a “Moderate Buy” or “Buy” consensus and 12‑month price targets clustering around $615–$720, implying anywhere from flat to mid‑teens upside depending on the source. [5]
GEV stock price today: how the market is reacting
As of the December 9, 2025 close, GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) finished around $625.30, up roughly 0.55% on the day. The stock traded between $613.20 and $636.88 during regular hours, on volume of just under 3 million shares. [6]
In after‑hours trading, the stock jumped to roughly $668, adding another ~6–7% as investors digested the investor‑day guidance, dividend hike, and larger buyback. [7]
Key snapshot:
- Market cap: about $170 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~102x
- Forward P/E: ~57x
- 52‑week range: $252.25 – $677.29
- Dividend (old run‑rate): $1.00 per share annually (0.16% yield) before today’s increase. [8]
With the new $0.50 quarterly dividend starting in Q1 2026, the annualized payout rises to $2.00 per share. At today’s price, that implies a forward yield of roughly 0.3%, still modest but clearly signaling confidence in future cash flows. [9]
Year‑to‑date, GEV is up close to 90%, making it one of the standout winners of the 2025 “AI‑power infrastructure” theme. [10]
Inside today’s Investor Day: multi‑year guidance raised
At its 2025 Investor Update in New York, GE Vernova laid out a substantially more ambitious financial roadmap through 2028. [11]
Headline numbers
From the company’s updated guidance:
- 2025 guidance (reaffirmed)
- Revenue: $36–37 billion, trending to the high end
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 8–9%
- Free cash flow: $3.5–4.0 billion, raised from a prior $3.0–3.5 billion range. [12]
- 2026 guidance (new)
- Revenue: $41–42 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 11–13%. [13]
- 2028 outlook (raised)
- Revenue: $52 billion, up from a previous $45 billion target
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 20%, up from 14%
- Cumulative free cash flow (2025–2028): $22+ billion, up from a prior “$14+ billion” goal. [14]
Management also expects total backlog to grow from about $135 billion today to roughly $200 billion by year‑end 2028, with the Electrification backlog doubling from $30 billion to $60 billion. [15]
On the generation side, GE Vernova highlighted 18 GW of gas turbine contracts signed quarter‑to‑date, and expects to reach around 80 GW of combined gas turbine slot reservations and backlog by the end of 2025—giving strong visibility into future Power segment revenue. [16]
Segment‑level outlook
The multi‑year segment guidance gives more color on how GE Vernova plans to reach those 2028 targets: [17]
- Power
- 2025: 6–7% organic revenue growth; 14–15% segment EBITDA margin
- 2026: mid‑teens organic revenue growth; 16–18% margin
- 2028: high‑teens revenue CAGR; ~22% margin
- Electrification
- 2025: ~25% organic revenue growth; 14–15% margin
- 2026: ~20% organic revenue growth; 17–19% margin
- 2028: high‑teens revenue CAGR; ~22% margin
- Wind
- 2025–26: revenue down high‑ to low‑double digits with continued segment losses
- 2028: low‑double‑digit revenue decline over the period but positive 6% margin, signaling a gradual turnaround from today’s losses
Critically, Reuters underscored that the 2026 revenue and growth outlook is being driven by surging electricity demand from AI and cryptocurrency data centers, which is fueling orders for turbines and grid equipment in both the Power and Electrification segments. [18]
Dividend doubled and buyback boosted: cash‑return story steps up
Alongside its guidance, GE Vernova’s board took two shareholder‑friendly capital‑allocation steps:
- Quarterly dividend doubled
- New quarterly dividend: $0.50 per share, up from $0.25
- First payment at the new rate: February 2, 2026
- Record date: January 5, 2026. [19]
- Share‑repurchase authorization increased
- Authorization raised to $10 billion, from $6 billion previously
- GE Vernova has already used $3.3 billion of the program as of December 3, 2025. [20]
Commentary across financial media framed these moves as a strong vote of confidence in the company’s free‑cash‑flow trajectory, especially given management’s upgraded projection of at least $22 billion in cumulative FCF from 2025–2028. [21]
For investors, the combination of richer dividends and an enlarged buyback suggests that GE Vernova expects to:
- Maintain an investment‑grade balance sheet, and
- Still have ample cash to invest roughly $10 billion in combined capex and R&D over the 2025–2028 period. [22]
Recent fundamentals: Q3 2025 results underpin the story
Today’s investor‑day numbers build on what was already a strong third quarter of 2025:
- Orders: $14.6 billion, up 55% organically, led by equipment in Power and Electrification
- Revenue: $10.0 billion, up 12% reported and 10% organically
- Adjusted EBITDA: $0.8 billion with an 8.1% margin
- Free cash flow: $0.7 billion for the quarter
- Backlog: grew by $6.6 billion sequentially, with gas‑power equipment backlog and slot reservations rising to 62 GW and Electrification equipment backlog up to roughly $26 billion. [23]
Management has repeatedly stressed that power demand from AI‑driven data centers and grid modernization is a key long‑term tailwind, with electrification orders from hyperscale data‑center customers up significantly versus 2024. TechStock²+1
What Wall Street is saying: GEV stock forecasts and price targets
Analysts came into Investor Day with generally constructive views—and today’s news largely validates the bull case on growth, while keeping the debate alive on valuation.
Consensus ratings
Different platforms show slightly different counts, but they point in the same direction:
- MarketBeat:
- 33 firms cover GEV: 4 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 8 Hold, 2 Sell
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$616. [24]
- StocksGuide:
- 38 analysts in its dataset
- 71% Recommend Buy, 26% Hold, 3% Sell
- Average 2026 price target: about $720, implying ~16% upside from around $622 at the time of the snapshot. [25]
- Public.com / StockAnalysis / Investing.com:
- Public.com: 24 analysts, Buy consensus, average target around $625, effectively flat versus today’s price. [26]
- StockAnalysis: 26 analysts, average target $625.04, again roughly in line with the current quote. [27]
- Investing.com: an average target near $683, with a high estimate around $769 and a low around $420; rating skewed toward Buy with roughly 22 Buy vs 2 Sell calls. [28]
Taken together, the Street broadly likes the business but is split on how much upside is left at today’s valuation. Some houses cluster near the current price, while others see double‑digit upside if GE Vernova delivers on today’s 2028 roadmap.
Earnings expectations
According to multiple data providers:
- Full‑year 2025 EPS expectations are around the $7–8 per‑share range, with a noticeable step‑up expected into 2026 and beyond. [29]
- For Q4 2025, current consensus EPS is roughly $3.0–3.1, with the next earnings report projected for late January 2026—most often cited as around January 28, 2026, though exact dates vary by provider and remain subject to official confirmation. [30]
Institutional flows: big money is still buying GEV
Several institutional ownership updates filed for Q2 have been hitting the tape, and many show continued accumulation:
- State Street Corp increased its stake by about 206,650 shares in Q2, bringing its holdings to roughly 11.1 million shares, or just over 4% of the company, valued near $5.9 billion at the time. [31]
- Investment Management Corp of Ontario boosted its position by 25.5%, buying an additional 8,329 shares to reach 40,993 shares worth about $21.7 million. [32]
- Additional MarketBeat notes in recent weeks show a variety of funds—Brown Advisory, West Family Investments, Silvant Capital and others—either opening or expanding positions, with only a handful of trims disclosed. [33]
The institutional bid reinforces the perception that GE Vernova is becoming a “core holding” in the energy‑transition and AI‑infrastructure baskets, even as some managers worry about valuation risk.
How today’s news fits the bigger GE Vernova story
GE Vernova is still a relatively young standalone company—spun off from General Electric on April 2, 2024 and listed on the NYSE under ticker GEV. [34]
Its strategy centers on three main segments: [35]
- Power – gas, nuclear, hydro and steam technologies
- Wind – onshore and offshore wind turbines and blades
- Electrification – grid solutions, transformers, power conversion, solar and storage
Over the past year and into early December:
- The company has secured new gas‑turbine and wind orders across Europe (including Romania and Poland)and signed its first onshore wind repower upgrade contract outside the U.S. with Taiwan Power Company, extending turbine life and boosting higher‑margin service revenue. [36]
- It reported record orders and growing backlog in 2024 and 2025, and is also reshaping its portfolio—selling its Proficy industrial‑software unit to TPG for $600 million to focus further on grid software and core hardware. [37]
- Q3 2025 results showed double‑digit revenue growth and expanding margins, particularly in Power and Electrification, even while Wind remains a drag. [38]
Today’s upgraded 2028 outlook essentially codifies what many bullish analysts had already modeled—that GE Vernova could deliver high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual revenue growth with meaningful margin expansion, driven by:
- Rising global electricity demand
- Massive data‑center and AI‑related power needs
- Grid modernization and transmission investment
- A gradual turnaround in wind economics
By raising targets to $52 billion in revenue and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, management is effectively narrowing the gap between Wall Street’s more optimistic forecasts and its own official guidance. [39]
Valuation and risks: what could go wrong from here?
Even fans of the story agree on one thing: GEV is not cheap.
- Trailing P/E is above 100x, with a forward P/E near 57x. [40]
- A TechStock² roundup recently highlighted a PEG ratio around 4.5 and price‑to‑book near 16–17x, levels that clearly embed high expectations. TechStock²
- Short interest remains modest (around 2.5–2.7% of float), suggesting few investors are outright betting against the stock, but also that there’s limited “squeeze” fuel if things go right. TechStock²+1
Key risks that today’s bullish news does not eliminate:
- Execution risk on growth and margins
- Hitting a 20% EBITDA margin by 2028 will require sustained cost discipline, price realization, and continued mix shift toward higher‑margin services and Electrification products—especially while Wind transitions from losses to positive margin. [41]
- Wind segment volatility
- Offshore and onshore wind have been the most problematic parts of the portfolio, with project delays, interest‑rate sensitivity, and European pricing pressure hurting profitability. Even with a 2028 6% margin target, investors will want to see clear evidence of a sustainable turnaround. [42]
- Macro and rate sensitivity
- Capital‑intensive power and grid projects are sensitive to interest rates and policy changes. Several analyses noted that GEV has sold off sharply on days when rate‑cut expectations were pushed out, underscoring the risk that a “higher for longer” rate regime could compress valuation multiples. TechStock²+1
- Valuation downside if expectations reset
- With the stock up around 90% this year, even a modest disappointment—on growth, margins, cash‑flow timing, or wind profitability—could trigger a sharp correction. Recent commentary from Barron’s emphasized how high the stakes were coming into today’s investor day. [43]
Bottom line: what GEV’s big day means for investors
For December 9, 2025, GEV stock today is all about confirmation:
- The long‑term growth and margin story that bulls have been modeling now has official backing from management, with higher 2028 targets and a more detailed segment roadmap. [44]
- The cash‑return profile just improved via a doubled dividend and a larger buyback, supported by upgraded free‑cash‑flow guidance. [45]
- Institutional investors continue to accumulate shares, and most analysts maintain Buy‑leaning ratings, though some see limited upside from here given the premium valuation. [46]
If you’re following the stock, the next big checkpoints after today will likely be:
- The Q4 2025 earnings report in late January 2026, where investors will look for early proof that the 2026 and 2028 targets are achievable. [47]
- Additional data on wind profitability, new repower and grid contracts, and order trends from AI‑driven data‑center customers. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
For now, GE Vernova has delivered what the market wanted to hear: faster growth, higher margins, and more cash back to shareholders. Whether that still justifies paying tech‑like multiples for an industrial energy business is the central question that will drive GEV stock from here.
Important disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or financial advice. It summarizes publicly available information from news outlets, company releases, and market‑data providers as of December 9, 2025, and may omit other relevant reports. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.gevernova.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stocksguide.com, 26. public.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. finance.yahoo.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.gevernova.com, 35. www.gevernova.com, 36. simplywall.st, 37. www.timesunion.com, 38. www.gevernova.com, 39. www.businesswire.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. www.businesswire.com, 42. www.businesswire.com, 43. www.barrons.com, 44. www.businesswire.com, 45. www.businesswire.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. www.marketbeat.com
