Glencore plc (GLEN) Stock Outlook December 2025: Copper Expansion, Job Cuts and 2026 Price Targets

Glencore plc’s share price has raced back toward its 52‑week highs just as the miner is ripping up its operating structure and doubling down on copper. As of the latest close, Glencore shares trade around 380p on the London Stock Exchange, giving the group a market capitalisation of roughly £44.6bn and putting the price within a whisker of the 52‑week high of 391.35p and well above the 52‑week low of 205p set in April. ^[1]

That means the stock is now more than 80% above its spring trough, yet only about flat over 12 months, a neat summary of how volatile 2025 has been for Glencore shareholders. ^[2]

At the same time, management has:

Mapped out a pathway to nearly double copper production by 2035
Announced the restart of the Alumbrera copper–gold mine in Argentina
Cut about 1,000 jobs in a major operational shake‑up
Tightened near‑term copper guidance while promising long‑term growth

Investors now have to decide whether this is a well‑timed bet on a copper‑hungry future or a very levered way to be wrong about long‑term demand.

Glencore share price in December 2025: back near the top of the range

London Stock Exchange data show Glencore trading at 379.85p, with a one‑year trading range of 205.00p–391.35p and a stated dividend yield of about 2.7%. ^[3]

Price history from Investing.com and Yahoo Finance suggests: ^[4]

A sharp rally in late November and early December, with the stock jumping more than 6% on 3 December alone, coinciding with the company’s Capital Markets Day. ^[5]
A roughly flat total return over the past 12 months, despite that huge rebound from the April low – one of those “roller‑coaster but you ended where you started” years. ^[6]

On a trailing basis, Glencore’s London listing shows negative earnings (P/E around –35), reflecting weak commodity prices earlier in the cycle and one‑off items, while the cash distribution still screens as modestly attractive. ^[7]

In other words: the market is paying up for what Glencore might become more than for what 2025 looked like in the rear‑view mirror.

Capital Markets Day 2025: Glencore rebrands itself as a copper growth story

On 3 December 2025, Glencore used its Capital Markets Day in Baar to push a very clear narrative: this is now a copper‑centric company with a long runway of brownfield expansion. ^[8]

Key points from the presentation and subsequent reporting:

Copper growth targets
- Pathway to ~1.0m tonnes of copper production by 2028
- Plan to reach ~1.1m tonnes in 2029
- Long‑term target of ~1.6m tonnes by 2035, which would place Glencore among the world’s largest copper producers. ^[9]
Near‑term guidance reset
- 2025 copper guidance narrowed to 850,000–875,000 tonnes, with management expecting to land toward the lower end after ore‑grade and operational issues. ^[10]
- 2026 guidance cut to 810,000–870,000 tonnes from a previous 930,000‑tonne figure, mainly because of mine‑plan changes and development work at the Collahuasi operation in Chile. ^[11]
Growth mostly from brownfield expansions – debottlenecking and extensions at existing operations, plus restarts like Alumbrera, rather than huge, risky greenfield megaprojects. ^[12]

The Q3 2025 production report gives some texture behind these numbers. Own‑sourced copper output for the first nine months of the year was down 17% versus 2024, largely due to lower grades and mine sequencing at Collahuasi, Antamina, and South American operations. However, Q3 copper production was 36% higher than Q2, as planned higher‑grade ore came through the system. ^[13]

So the official story is: short‑term pain, long‑term copper gain. Not everyone is convinced that the demand side will play ball, but the strategic pivot is unmistakable.

Alumbrera restart and new copper infrastructure

The Alumbrera mine restart in Argentina is one of the flagship projects in that copper growth pipeline.

From the Capital Markets Day materials and Glencore’s own news release: ^[14]

The mine is expected to restart in Q4 2026, with first production in H1 2028.
Over its initial four‑year restart phase, Alumbrera is expected to produce roughly:
- 75,000 tonnes of copper
- 317,000 ounces of gold
- 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum
The restart is also designed as a stepping stone for the MARA project (Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera), helping keep infrastructure and workforce in place and reducing ramp‑up risk.

Reuters notes that the decision to go ahead was helped by Argentina’s new Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) and stronger copper and gold prices, which improve project economics. ^[15]

On the processing side, Glencore has also signed an initial agreement with Codelco to build a new 1.5m‑tonne‑per‑year copper smelter in Chile’s Antofagasta region. Glencore would build and operate the smelter while Codelco supplies up to 800,000 tonnes of concentrate annually under a long‑term deal, with construction targeted to start around 2030 and operations beginning between 2032 and 2033. ^[16]

Add in talks around a potential copper‑nickel joint venture with Vale in Canada’s Sudbury Basin, a project that industry sources value at $1.6–2.0bn, and you get a picture of a company trying to lock in both new resources and downstream capacity along the copper chain. ^[17]

Balancing this, Glencore is also reported to be planning the closure of its Horne smelter, Canada’s largest copper metal operation, citing high upgrade costs and environmental issues. ^[18]

Put together, the strategy looks like a classic Glencore move: shrink or shut high‑cost legacy assets, expand where the margin and regulatory environment look friendlier, and ensure enough smelting and marketing capacity to keep the trading arm busy.

Restructuring: 1,000 job cuts and a leaner operating model

Alongside the growth narrative came something a lot less cheerful for workers: job cuts.

On 3 December, Reuters reported that Glencore had eliminated about 1,000 roles as part of a streamlined industrial operating structure. ^[19] The Wall Street Journal framed the same move as part of a broader restructuring that cuts headcount while reorienting the portfolio toward copper, with the company still targeting that 1.6‑million‑tonne copper figure for 2035. ^[20]

The Q3 production report also referenced earlier retrenchment processes at Glencore’s ferrochrome and vanadium operations in South Africa, where smelters were suspended due to weak conversion margins. ^[21]

Labour relations are clearly a pressure point:

On 8 December 2025, Australia’s Mining and Energy Union welcomed a Fair Work Commission decision declaring bargaining at Glencore’s Ulan Underground mine “intractable” after almost two years of negotiations and no pay rise since March 2023. ^[22]

The ruling rejected Glencore’s claim that the union had “strategically disengaged” and instead highlighted an “unreasonably long period without agreement or wage movement,” underscoring the risk that aggressive cost discipline intersects with labour disputes.

For shareholders, the near‑term question is whether the cost savings and organisational simplification will outweigh the risk of disruption, regulatory scrutiny and reputational damage.

Climate strategy, coal overhang and ESG pressure

Glencore’s climate story has two very different chapters.

On one side, the company has a formal Climate Action Transition Plan with clear emissions‑reduction targets for its “industrial” (operational and value‑chain) emissions: ^[23]

15% reduction vs 2019 by 2026
25% by 2030
50% by 2035
An ambition of net‑zero industrial CO₂e by 2050, subject to supportive policy

Shareholders have increasingly backed this plan; Reuters reported higher support for Glencore’s climate resolutions at the 2024 AGM. ^[24]

On the other side, the coal business remains large and controversial:

Research from the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) argues that Glencore’s coal portfolio is actually set to grow nearly 30% by 2050, especially after the Elk Valley Resources acquisition, and questions whether the firm can still hit its 2030 targets if those assets are fully included in climate reporting. ^[25]
ACCR also flags water‑contamination issues and long‑dated environmental liabilities at Elk Valley, highlighting potential future capex and legal risk. ^[26]

In short: Glencore wants to be seen as a champion of “transition commodities” like copper, cobalt and nickel, but it is doing so while still carrying a large and, in some scenarios, growing exposure to coal. The tension between those two identities is not lost on ESG‑focused investors.

Macro backdrop: a copper‑hungry world… in theory

The bullish part of the Glencore thesis leans heavily on the broader copper story:

Reports this year have noted record‑high copper futures above $11,400/t on the LME, with prices up around 27% year‑to‑date, driven by tight inventories, supply disruptions and optimism about demand from AI data centres, electrification and grid upgrades. ^[27]
Market research from sources like Argus and IndexBox points to a potential structural copper deficit by the early 2030s if planned mine supply and permitting delays fail to keep up with demand from electrification and green infrastructure. ^[28]

Glencore’s Capital Markets Day leaned hard into this narrative. CEO Gary Nagle explicitly linked the growth in copper demand to AI and the energy transition, arguing that higher prices are needed to incentivise the supply Glencore plans to bring online. ^[29]

Sceptics, including a recent Bloomberg opinion piece, warn that the company is asking investors to take a lot on trust: Glencore has previously guided to around $6.8bn per year in industrial capex for 2025–27, and the new copper targets effectively double‑down on the idea that robust copper demand is a done deal rather than a forecast. ^[30]

If the copper super‑cycle thesis disappoints, those long‑dated projects could look more like an anchor than a sail.

Analyst ratings, price targets and dividend outlook

Consensus view: broadly positive, but not euphoric

Different data providers paint a broadly similar picture: moderately bullish, with limited near‑term upside from today’s price.

MarketBeat (London listing, GLEN)
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 6 analysts in the last 12 months
- Split: 4 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: 391.67p, implying about 3% upside from a reference price near 381p
- Target range: 320p–470p. ^[31]
TradingView (GLEN forecasts)
- 1‑year price target: 405.89p
- Target range: ~317p–476p
- Overall analyst rating summarised as “Buy”, based on 20 ratings over the last three months. ^[32]
US OTC/ADR coverage (GLNCY / GLCNF)
- Fintel‑linked research on the US OTC listing GLNCY shows an average one‑year target of $10.57, about 12.6% below the recent close of $12.10, alongside a Neutral recommendation from JP Morgan Cazenove. ^[33]
- For another OTC line (GLCNF), Fintel data earlier this year showed an average target around $5.29, with a range of roughly $4.35–$6.17. ^[34]

The divergence between London and US views suggests that some analysts see Glencore as fully valued—or even a little stretched—after the recent rally, while others think copper optionality justifies a bit more upside.

Recent broker moves

In July 2025, J.P. Morgan resumed coverage of Glencore with an “overweight” rating and a 360p price target (at the time implying meaningful upside from a depressed share price). ^[35]
By early December, JP Morgan Cazenove was content to rate the ADR “Neutral”, implying that, at least in dollar terms, the easy money might have been made for now. ^[36]

Dividend and cash returns

Analysts quoted in a recent Motley Fool UK article expect Glencore’s forward dividend yield to sit around 2.1% for 2025, rising to roughly 2.8% in 2026, assuming consensus payout forecasts are met. ^[37]

Historically, Glencore has also relied heavily on buybacks as a way to return cash when times are good. Over the last five years, the company says it has announced more than $25bn in shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks. ^[38]

The catch: this is a cyclical, commodity‑driven business. Distributions move with the cycle; they’re not designed to be a smooth, bond‑like stream of cash.

How we got here: a bruising 2025 before the rally

To understand why the recent optimism still sits on a slightly bruised share price, it’s worth rewinding.

AskTraders, writing in July 2025, pointed out that: ^[39]

Glencore shares had rallied more than 40% off their lows, but were still about 37% below levels seen 12 months earlier.
Q1 2025 production figures showed own‑source copper output down around 30% year‑on‑year, badly missing forecasts.
2024 earnings (reported in February 2025) saw EBITDA slide 16% to about $14.4bn, slightly below expectations, even though Glencore announced a $2.2bn capital‑return package (dividends plus buyback).
The company publicly floated the idea of moving its primary listing from London to New York, arguing that the London discount and weak share price failed to reflect the quality of the business.

Those disappointments helped set the stage for the December reset: tighter guidance, a clearer copper growth roadmap, and a willingness to swing the axe on costs.

Key risks for Glencore shareholders

Even fans of the stock have to admit that this is not a low‑drama holding. Some of the biggest risk buckets:

Commodity‑price volatility
Revenues and cash flow swing with copper, coal, zinc, nickel and a host of other commodities. A lot of the 2035 plan only works if copper prices stay robust; a prolonged downturn would squeeze both earnings and capex budgets. ^[40]
Execution risk on copper growth projects
Alumbrera, Collahuasi expansions, and potential Sudbury and Chilean smelter projects all involve heavy multi‑year capex and significant permitting, technical and political risk. Delays, cost overruns or local opposition can erode returns fast. ^[41]
Climate and coal exposure
Glencore’s thermal and metallurgical coal portfolio brings cash but also regulatory, reputational and transition risk. If regulators or investors harden their stance more quickly than the company can adapt, asset values and funding costs could be hit. ^[42]
Labour and social licence
Disputes like the Ulan Underground case—and earlier retrenchments in South Africa—highlight that Glencore operates in communities and jurisdictions where unions, governments and regulators can significantly influence operations and costs. ^[43]
Legal and compliance history
Glencore has previously faced major investigations and settlements over bribery and market‑manipulation allegations. While those specific cases are largely in the rear‑view mirror, any recurrence would be costly both financially and reputationally. ^[44]

For anyone considering the stock, this is not a “forget about it for 20 years” type of holding; it’s closer to a high‑beta play on metals cycles and management’s ability to thread a needle between growth, regulation and politics.

Glencore stock outlook: what the current set‑up implies

Putting all of that together, the December 2025 picture looks something like this:

The share price has rerated sharply off the lows and now sits close to the top of its 12‑month range, with consensus targets suggesting only modest further upside from here in base‑case scenarios. ^[45]
The strategic pivot toward copper is credible and backed by real assets and projects, but the company has also trimmed near‑term guidance, acknowledging that getting to 1.6m tonnes by 2035 involves detours and short‑term pain. ^[46]
Restructuring and job cuts should, in theory, support margins and capital efficiency, yet they come with clear labour‑relations and reputational risks. ^[47]
On ESG and climate, Glencore is promising significant decarbonisation while still leaning heavily on coal cash flows—a balancing act that investors and activists will continue to scrutinise. ^[48]

For investors who believe in a long, robust copper cycle, and who are comfortable with cyclical risk and ESG complexity, Glencore offers leveraged exposure, an active trading arm, and a still‑reasonable yield. For those wary of climate‑policy tightening, labour disputes or a potential copper oversupply later in the decade, the stock may already price in more optimism than they’d like.