London, Jan 11, 2026, 23:45 GMT — Market closed.
Glencore’s stock surged 9.6% on Friday, hitting its highest mark since July 2024 after the miner confirmed talks with Rio Tinto over a potential merger. The news reignited interest in the deal-driven mining sector, according to Reuters data. (Reuters)
The London-listed miner closed at 452.65 pence, gaining 39.65p for the day, after hitting a peak of 459.0p. Trading volume exceeded 118 million shares, according to London South East data. (Shareprices)
Why it matters now: copper is the hot commodity, pushing major miners to scale up or risk being left behind. “This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating,” said Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global. Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch pegged BHP as the “most likely interloper” should the talks escalate into a broader battle. (Reuters)
Details are still scarce. Late Thursday, the companies indicated they expect an all-share buyout of “some or all” of Glencore by Rio, Reuters reported—a merger idea that’s come up before but never took hold. According to Reuters, Rio Tinto’s market cap stands around $142 billion, while Glencore’s is about $65 billion. (Reuters)
Scepticism hit Rio’s shares almost immediately. In Australia, Rio stock dipped after news of the talks surfaced. Analysts raised doubts about Rio’s appetite for Glencore’s coal assets, given Rio exited coal back in 2018. Bloomberg’s Alon Olsha and Grant Sporre called a “clean, all-asset combination” unlikely. (ABC)
Glencore’s marketing division remains a sticking point. Two sources told Reuters that Rio wants to hold onto Glencore’s commodities trading business—the arm that handles buying, shipping, and selling raw materials—as it aims to expand its own trading operations. But how Glencore’s coal and trading units would fit within Rio is a major question, said Derren Nathan of Hargreaves Lansdown. (Reuters)
Banks are already jockeying for a slice of the fee pool. According to Reuters, advisers on a deal this big could share upwards of $100 million in fees. JPMorgan, which acts as Rio’s corporate broker, appears to be leading the pack. UBS, also a broker to Rio, remains in play, while Citi, thanks to its previous work for Glencore, stays in contention, sources told Reuters. (Reuters)
The rally comes with a warning. These talks are still in the early stages, and big mining deals frequently hit roadblocks around pricing, political hurdles, and regulatory approval. Should negotiations falter, the gains seen in both stocks on Friday could quickly reverse.
Investors now have a firm deadline: Rio must declare by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 whether it will make a formal offer for Glencore or drop the bid, according to UK takeover rules. The Takeover Panel may extend this deadline. Rio added that any merger would probably go through a court-approved scheme of arrangement—a UK procedure requiring both shareholder approval and a court’s blessing. (Riotinto)
