Glencore Share Price on 2 December 2025: Sudbury Copper Deal, Smelter Cuts and What’s Next for GLEN Stock

Glencore plc (LON: GLEN) enters 2 December 2025 at the centre of several major storylines: a new Canadian copper partnership, deepening pain in its South African ferrochrome business, ongoing ESG and smelter pressures, and an investor base impatient for a clear path to higher copper output and more consistent returns.

Glencore share price today: GLEN around 362p, £42–43bn market value

As the London market closed on 2 December 2025, Glencore’s London‑listed shares were trading around 362p, modestly below Monday’s 364.7p close. Hargreaves Lansdown and the Financial Times show an intraday range of roughly 361.6p–365.3p, with an indicative market capitalisation of about £42–43 billion and a 52‑week range of 205p–397.4p. ^[1]

Price data from the LSE’s own tools show the share at 361.9p at 08:20 GMT on 2 December, about 0.8% below the prior close. ^[2]

The move follows a stronger session on 1 December, when GLEN rose about 1% as UK‑listed miners rallied on growing expectations of US interest‑rate cuts. TradingView highlighted that Glencore also disclosed another transaction involving its own shares that day, reflecting the continuation of its active buyback programme. ^[3]

On most data providers, Glencore currently screens on:

Dividend yield: roughly 2.0–2.1% on trailing declared distributions. ^[4]
Headline P/E: temporarily distorted (and sometimes “n/a”) by non‑cash impairments and volatile coal earnings. TS2 Tech+1

Against that valuation backdrop, 2 December brings a genuinely new development on the copper side.

New on 2 December: Vale–Glencore Sudbury copper partnership

The most concrete new stock‑relevant news on 2 December is a fresh copper growth option in Canada.

Vale Base Metals (VBM) announced that it has signed an agreement with Glencore Canada to jointly evaluate a brownfield copper project in the Sudbury Basin, using Glencore’s existing Nickel Rim South shaft and underground infrastructure. ^[5]

Key details from the Vale release:

Scope: Joint evaluation of underground copper deposits on adjacent Vale and Glencore properties, accessed via a deepened Nickel Rim South shaft and new drifts. ^[6]
Potential JV: Intention to form a 50/50 joint venture once early‑stage work is complete. ^[7]
Scale: Estimated production of about 880,000 tonnes of copper over 21 years, alongside nickel, cobalt, gold, PGMs and other critical minerals. ^[8]
Capex: Indicative US$1.6–2.0 billion capital cost. ^[9]
Timing: Detailed engineering, permitting and consultation in 2026, with a final investment decision (FID) targeted for H1 2027. ^[10]

For investors who have spent the last two years hearing Glencore talk about “getting back to 1Mtpa of copper by 2028” while actual production fell, this is a tangible step that sits neatly inside that narrative. ^[11]

It is, however, still pre‑FID. The economics will depend heavily on copper prices, regulatory timelines in Ontario, and how capital is shared between the partners. For now, the deal mainly reinforces the message that Glencore intends to grow in copper via brownfield and partnership‑heavy projects rather than giant, high‑risk greenfields on its own balance sheet.

Capital Markets Day 2025: a crucial moment for the Glencore story

Glencore is also holding its long‑trailed Capital Markets Day (CMD) in early December 2025, with the company’s own corporate calendar flagging “2025 Capital Markets Day” around 2 December. ^[12]

Investor expectations are high:

A widely cited Citi note ahead of the CMD rates Glencore “Buy” with a 440p price target, pointing to potential 2025 marketing EBIT of around US$3.1 billion, near the top of Glencore’s upgraded guidance range. TS2 Tech
Citi also highlights management’s ambition to reach 1Mtpa of copper by 2028, supported by assets in the DRC and Peru and by projects such as MARA in Argentina. TS2 Tech+1
The CMD is expected to update the market on coal run‑down plans, capex discipline, cost savings and capital‑return policy.

This event matters because large shareholders have become increasingly frustrated with Glencore’s execution and share‑price underperformance. A Bloomberg‑based analysis published in September notes that GLEN shares have fallen about 30% over three years, significantly lagging peers, as copper volumes slipped and coal earnings normalised. ^[13]

The CMD is, in effect, Glencore’s chance to convince investors that its copper growth, coal strategy and trading strength can translate into sustained higher returns, not just episodic windfalls.

Q3 2025 production: copper bounces, ferrochrome collapses

Glencore’s Third Quarter 2025 Production Report (29 October) sets the operational baseline heading into today’s news and this week’s capital‑markets messaging. ^[14]

Headline points from that report:

Copper:
- YTD own‑sourced copper production: 583.5kt, 17% below the comparable 2024 period (705.2kt), largely due to lower grades and recoveries at Collahuasi, Antamina, Antapaccay and KCC. ^[15]
- Q3 copper output was 36% higher quarter‑on‑quarter, as mine sequencing moved into higher‑grade areas at KCC, Mutanda and key South American assets. ^[16]
- Full‑year 2025 copper guidance tightened to 850–875kt (from 850–890kt), implying a heavy Q4 but still signalling confidence in a H2 recovery. ^[17]
Cobalt & zinc:
- Cobalt production YTD: 28.5kt, up 8% year‑on‑year, mainly from higher grades at Mutanda. ^[18]
- Zinc: 709.4kt, up 10%, helped by better grades at Antamina and higher volumes at McArthur River. ^[19]
Nickel:
- YTD production 52.4kt, 16% lower than 2024, reflecting weaker output at INO and Murrin Murrin and the transition of Koniambo to care and maintenance. ^[20]
Coal:
- Steelmaking coal production more than doubled to 24.7Mt, mainly due to the consolidation of Elk Valley Resources (EVR) acquired in 2024. ^[21]
- Energy coal output of 73.5Mt was broadly flat year‑on‑year, with stronger Australian volumes offsetting voluntary cuts at Cerrejón. ^[22]
Ferrochrome:
- Attributable ferrochrome production plunged 51% to 436kt, reflecting earlier suspensions at the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters and maintenance at Lion. ^[23]

Management reiterated that it expects 2025 Marketing Adjusted EBIT to come in around the mid‑point of its US$2.3–3.5 billion long‑term range, underlining the stabilising role of the trading division. ^[24]

In short: Q3 was a welcome operational rebound in copper and a confirmation of coal strength, but also a stark reminder of just how hard Glencore’s ferrochrome and some smelting operations are being hit.

South African ferrochrome: retrenchments and smelter shutdown risk

That ferrochrome pain translated into concrete social and political consequences today.

On 2 December, South African outlet Moneyweb reported that the Glencore–Merafe Chrome Venture will start issuing retrenchment notices after failing to secure workable electricity tariffs from state utility Eskom. The Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters are set to be placed on care and maintenance from 1 January 2026 if no solution is found. ^[25]

Key points from Moneyweb and Miningmx:

The venture historically produced over 30% of South Africa’s chrome exports, with about 2,425 direct jobs and 17,000 indirect jobs now at risk. ^[26]
Nearly half of Glencore’s 22 ferrochrome furnaces in South Africa have already been permanently or temporarily shut in recent years. ^[27]
Industry bodies estimate that South Africa has lost 300,000–350,000 jobs due to the closure of 14 energy‑intensive smelters, with soaring electricity prices – up roughly 800% since 2007 – cited as the primary cause. ^[28]

Glencore’s Q3 production report explicitly linked the 51% drop in ferrochrome output to the suspension of Boshoek and Wonderkop, pending a “sustained recovery in ferrochrome conversion margins.” ^[29]

For GLEN shareholders, the message is double‑edged:

These closures protect margins and reduce cash burn in a structurally challenged subsector.
But they also reinforce perceptions of regulatory and political risk around the group’s South African asset base and highlight how exposed Glencore remains to local infrastructure and tariff regimes.

Smelters and ESG risk: from Canada’s Horne to climate scrutiny

Smelting and ESG issues are not limited to South Africa.

In early November, Reuters reported that Glencore is planning to close its Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada’s largest copper metal operation, due to environmental issues and the hundreds of millions of dollars needed for upgrades. Glencore publicly denied that closure was currently being considered, but acknowledged that the operation faces “enormous” financial and regulatory pressures. ^[30]

The Horne complex:

Employs over 1,000 workers across the smelter and the linked Canadian Copper Refinery. ^[31]
Faces a class‑action lawsuit over arsenic emissions, with potential damages claims back to 2020. ^[32]
Plays a critical role in North American copper supply, especially in recycling of e‑scrap. ^[33]

Meanwhile, investors and NGOs continue to scrutinise Glencore’s broader climate strategy and governance. A coalition of shareholders previously urged a vote against the company’s climate progress report, arguing that it lacked transparency and detail on how thermal coal will be run down. ^[34]

The combination of Horne, the South African smelters and historical corruption cases keeps a material ESG discount embedded in Glencore’s valuation – something management will have to address explicitly if it wants US‑style multiples.

Energy‑transition portfolio: Li‑Cycle, Century Aluminum and a Chinese aluminium IPO

Alongside coal and smelter headaches, Glencore is leaning hard into energy‑transition metals and recycling:

Battery recycling: Glencore has acquired Canadian recycler Li‑Cycle out of creditor protection, rebranding it as Glencore Battery Recycling and integrating its North American and European facilities into a circular‑economy platform. TS2 Tech
Century Aluminum selldown: In November, Reuters reported that Glencore reduced its stake in US aluminium producer Century Aluminum from roughly 43% to 33%, selling 9 million shares for around US$272 million after the stock rallied on higher US aluminium tariffs. TS2 Tech
Chinese aluminium smelter IPO: Bloomberg, via Mining.com, reports that Glencore and Hillhouse Investment Management plan to act as cornerstone investors in the Hong Kong IPO of Chuangxin Industries Holdings, an Inner Mongolia aluminium smelter. The IPO could raise about US$700 million, with Chinese aluminium producers currently enjoying strong margins as prices hit three‑year highs. ^[35]

These moves deepen Glencore’s leverage to aluminium and battery materials, complementing its copper, cobalt and nickel portfolio. They also demonstrate a willingness to monetise “over‑earning” positions (as with Century Aluminum) and redeploy capital into new growth or buybacks.

Financial picture: H1 2025 under pressure, H2 weighted, buybacks ongoing

Glencore’s Half‑Year 2025 results painted a company in mid‑transition. ^[36]

Key numbers (H1 2025 vs H1 2024):

Revenue: US$117.4bn, essentially flat year‑on‑year and ahead of consensus around US$105bn. ^[37]
Adjusted EBITDA:US$5.4bn, down 14% and below the US$5.9bn consensus. ^[38]
Adjusted EBIT:US$1.8bn, down 37% and well short of expectations. ^[39]
Industrial EBITDA: US$3.8bn (‑17%), hit by lower coal prices and weaker copper output. ^[40]
Marketing EBIT: US$1.4bn (‑8%), still within the upgraded guidance band. ^[41]
Net debt: Up to US$14.5bn, from roughly US$11.2bn at end‑2024, driven by capex (~US$3.2bn), shareholder returns (~US$1.8bn) and higher working capital tied to trading flows. ^[42]

On capital returns, Glencore has been busy:

In respect of 2024 earnings, the company targeted a US$2.2bn package (about US$1.2bn in cash distributions and US$1bn in buybacks). TS2 Tech
For 2025, announced and ongoing programmes imply total shareholder returns of around US$3.2bn, including a second US$0.05 per‑share distribution and an active US$1bn buyback running through to the publication of the 2025 results (expected February 2026). ^[43]

Daily RNS and SENS notices show steady buyback activity through October and November, including a JSE filing on 1 December summarising repurchases up to late November. TS2 Tech+1

The bull case is that a normalised marketing division plus tighter cost control and copper growth will allow Glencore to sustain substantial capital returns while gradually deleveraging.

Analyst forecasts and GLEN stock ratings as of early December 2025

Across major broker and data platforms, Glencore currently screens as a “Moderate Buy” with modest but positive expected upside.

MarketBeat (LON:GLEN): ^[44]

Consensus rating: Moderate Buy based on 6 analysts – 4 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell.
Average 12‑month price target:388.3p, with a range of 350p–470p.
The average target implies roughly 6–8% upside from current levels in the mid‑360s.

TipRanks (LON:GLEN): TS2 Tech

Around 10 analysts over the last three months: 6 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, also tagged as Moderate Buy.
Average 12‑month target around 389p, with an indicated mid‑teens percentage upside versus the survey’s reference price (about 335p at the time).

Selected recent broker actions, as collated by MarketBeat, underline how sentiment has evolved: ^[45]

Morgan Stanley upgraded Glencore to Overweight in February with a 470p target.
Citigroup boosted its target to 380p, maintaining a Buy rating.
Deutsche Bank trimmed its target from 400p to 380p but kept a Buy.
Berenberg remains more cautious with a Hold at 350p.

On US‑listed ADRs (OTC: GLNCY), third‑party sites show similar “Buy/Hold” mixes and price‑target ranges which, once FX and ADR ratios are accounted for, broadly map back to high‑single‑digit to mid‑teens upside versus current London levels. ^[46]

In terms of income, consensus distributions for 2025–2026 suggest a low‑single‑digit cash dividend yield, but a high single‑digit total “capital‑return yield” once buybacks are included – a key part of the GLEN investment case. TS2 Tech+1

Key drivers for GLEN in 2025–2026

Putting the latest news in context, several levers will likely dominate how Glencore performs from here:

Copper volumes and prices
- The Sudbury partnership, DRC assets and South American expansions are central to Glencore’s ambition to get back to 1Mtpa of copper by 2028. ^[47]
- Tight global copper supply and record‑high prices north of US$11,000/t have so far benefited the sector, but Glencore has lagged peers on translating that into volume growth. ^[48]
Coal: cash generator vs climate liability
- Coal was the star performer during the 2022–2023 energy crisis, but weaker prices have dragged recent earnings and heightened investor focus on run‑down plans and political risk. TS2 Tech+1
- How Glencore balances cash‑harvest and decarbonisation will remain a central valuation issue.
Marketing division resilience
- Marketing delivered around US$3.2bn EBIT in 2024 and is tracking toward the mid‑point of US$2.3–3.5bn in 2025 despite more normal commodity prices. TS2 Tech+1
- Persistent volatility in metals and energy is generally good news for traders – provided risk is well‑managed.
Smelter and ferrochrome restructuring
- The Merafe retrenchments and potential Horne closure illustrate how regulation, power tariffs and ESG litigation can force asset closures or heavy capex, with social and political fallout. ^[49]
Balance sheet and capital allocation discipline
- With net debt around US$14.5bn, Glencore is more leveraged than some peers, but still at roughly 1x net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA – manageable if commodity prices hold. ^[50]
- The central question is whether management can hit its US$1bn cost‑saving target, grow copper and recycling, and maintain sizeable buybacks without over‑stretching the balance sheet into a downturn. ^[51]

Outlook: is Glencore stock attractive at 362p?

As of 2 December 2025, the Glencore investment case looks finely balanced:

Positives:
- Leverage to structurally important energy‑transition metals (copper, cobalt, nickel, aluminium, recycling). ^[52]
- A proven, cash‑generative trading division that has repeatedly delivered near the top of guidance through cycles. TS2 Tech+1
- A meaningful capital‑return programme via dividends and buybacks at a mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit yield. TS2 Tech+1
Negatives:
- A history of operational under‑delivery, especially in copper, and an earnings mix still heavily influenced by coal. ^[53]
- Elevated ESG and regulatory risk, from climate strategy votes to smelter emissions litigation and South African power politics. ^[54]
- A balance sheet more geared than some diversified peers, with substantial capex commitments ahead. ^[55]

Consensus targets in the high‑380s to low‑400s suggest moderate upside from today’s 362p level, but with a wide range of views and considerable macro and execution risk attached. ^[56]

For investors, the next few days – with the Capital Markets Day, ongoing buyback disclosures and more detail on projects like Sudbury – are likely to be pivotal in deciding whether Glencore remains a value‑trap or starts to close the gap to its copper‑heavy peers.

References

Anglo American plc (AAL.L) Stock on 2 December 2025: BHP’s Failed Bid, Teck Merger Vote and Copper Rally Reframe the Outlook

NatWest Group Plc (LON: NWG) Stock on 2 December 2025: Stress Test Pass, Buybacks and 2026 Price Targets

GSK plc Stock Today: Q3 Beat, Blenrep Comeback and a New CEO – Full Investor Update for 2 December 2025