London, January 19, 2026, 08:06 GMT — Regular session
- Glencore shares climbed roughly 0.5% in early London trading, clawing back some of Friday’s losses.
- Investors are weighing the antitrust risks in China alongside the UK takeover timeline as they consider Rio Tinto’s next move.
- Glencore will release its full-year production report for 2025 on Jan. 29, ahead of the earnings announcement set for Feb. 18.
Glencore shares edged up 0.5% to 481.15 pence by 0806 GMT, following a higher open and early fluctuations between 476.70 and 481.95 pence. The stock closed Friday at 478.60 pence. (Google)
Glencore stays in “deal mode” as investors weigh the chances of a tie-up with Rio Tinto—and the challenges that might follow. The calendar is just as important as metal prices in this equation.
China poses a major near-term hurdle. Analysts and lawyers told Reuters that a Rio-Glencore merger would require Beijing’s green light, potentially coupled with demands for asset divestitures due to China’s persistent emphasis on resource security and limiting market concentration. (Reuters)
On Monday, the UK Takeover Panel’s disclosure table once again flagged Glencore as being in an “offer period,” with Rio Tinto listed as the offeror and a deadline set for Feb. 5 at 1700 London time under Rule 2.6. That rule generally requires a bidder to either confirm a firm intention to proceed with an offer or withdraw. (TradingView)
Earlier this month, Rio revealed it had held preliminary talks with Glencore on a potential merger. The plan, as it stands, would see Rio acquiring Glencore through a court-sanctioned “scheme of arrangement,” a typical UK takeover method. However, Rio emphasized there’s no guarantee an offer will be made or what the terms might be. (Rio Tinto)
China has a track record in mining mega-deals. Reuters highlighted that back in 2013, Chinese regulators compelled Glencore to offload its stake in Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine to greenlight its Xstrata takeover. They also imposed a requirement to supply Chinese customers with minimum copper concentrate volumes at set prices for just over seven years. (Reuters)
Before the Glencore talks went public, Reuters reported that Rio had been looking into an asset-for-equity swap designed to reduce Chinalco’s roughly 11% stake, its largest shareholder. Assets like Simandou in Guinea and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia were reportedly on the table. “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” said Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney. (Reuters)
RBC Capital Markets mining analyst Ben Davis suggested a premium of 15% to 30% over Glencore’s early January share price “could get the deal done” and might keep BHP out of the picture. “The deal has momentum,” Davis noted, saying the market expects a firm offer soon. (Mining)
Any deal would shake up the hierarchy among major miners, with copper as the key asset and coal the troublesome one. Rio has already left coal behind, but Glencore still holds onto it. That balance plays a crucial role for shareholders and regulators watching supply concentration.
But a higher share price cuts both ways. If Rio pulls out on Feb. 5, traders will need to shed the deal premium fast. Should China call for significant divestments — or if politics block asset sales — the timeline could stretch and the economics shift.
Glencore plans to share its 2025 full-year production report on Jan. 29, followed by the release of its full-year results on Feb. 18. The company will host a webcast that morning, it announced. (Glencore)
Investors are focused on the Feb. 5 takeover deadline, awaiting any new statements, disclosure filings under the Takeover Code, and clues on Beijing’s stance toward the Rio-Glencore deal.
