Glencore Share Price Rises into December: Latest GLEN Stock News, Forecasts and 2025

Updated 1 December 2025

Glencore plc (LON: GLEN), one of the world’s largest diversified commodity traders and miners, enters December with its share price trading in the mid‑360p range on the London Stock Exchange, implying a market value of roughly £42 billion. ^[1] Against a backdrop of strong copper prices, heavy coal exposure and an increasingly complex “energy‑transition” portfolio, the stock is drawing renewed attention from both income investors and cyclical traders.

This article pulls together the most important Glencore news, production updates and analyst forecasts available as of 1 December 2025, and outlines the key drivers that could move GLEN in 2025–2026.

Glencore share price today (1 December 2025)

Glencore’s own investor pages show the stock trading around 367p in early dealings on 1 December 2025. ^[2]
MarketBeat data, based on trading on 29 November, shows GLEN opening close to 360p, with a one‑year range of 205p–397.4p and a market cap a touch above £42 billion. ^[3]

Even after a strong rally from its 2024 lows, the share price still sits below its 52‑week high, reflecting investor caution about coal, capex and legal/ESG baggage—but also leaving room for upside if management can turn today’s investments into higher returns.

What Glencore actually does in 2025

Glencore is an Anglo‑Swiss commodities group headquartered in Baar, Switzerland. It combines:

Industrial mining and smelting operations in copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, ferroalloys and coal; and
A massive marketing (trading) division that buys, sells and transports more than 60 commodities worldwide. ^[4]

That dual structure means earnings are driven both by physical production volumes and by trading margins, which tend to spike in volatile markets.

Latest operational news: 2024 production and 2025 rebound

2024: lower metals production, bigger coal footprint

In January 2025, Glencore reported that 2024 production of several key metals declined, including:

Copper down about 6% to roughly 952,000 tonnes, at the bottom of guidance, mainly due to lower grades and mine sequencing.
Thermal coal output slipping to just under 100 million tonnes from 106 million in 2023.
Steelmaking coal surging after the 2024 acquisition of Elk Valley Resources (Teck’s coking‑coal assets), with output rising from 7.5 million tonnes to nearly 20 million tonnes. ^[5]

The mix today is clear: less thermal coal than at the 2022 peak, but more long‑life metallurgical coal, paired with a copper portfolio that is volume‑constrained in the short term but strategically vital for the energy transition.

Q1 2025: guidance intact, coal trimmed

In the First Quarter Production Report 2025 (30 April), CEO Gary Nagle reiterated full‑year production guidance for 2025, except for a roughly 5% cut to energy‑coal guidance after Glencore voluntarily reduced volumes at the Cerrejón mine to help rebalance the coal market. ^[6]

Key points from that Q1 update:

Q1 was expected to be the low point for copper volumes, with a significantly stronger second half as mine sequencing improves at key assets like Collahuasi (Chile), Antamina (Peru), Antapaccay (Peru) and KCC (DRC). ^[7]
Steelmaking and energy coal volumes were already tracking well against guidance. ^[8]
The marketing division was expected to deliver full‑year adjusted EBIT around the middle of its long‑term guidance range of $2.2–3.2 billion per year, assuming volatile but functioning commodity markets. ^[9]

Q3 2025: strong copper bounce, guidance tightened

The Third Quarter 2025 Production Report (29 October) is probably the single most important operational document investors are digesting right now. Nagle highlighted: ^[10]

Copper:
- Own‑sourced copper production 583,500 tonnes year‑to‑date—about 17% below the same period in 2024, mainly thanks to earlier low grades and planned mine sequencing.
- But Q3 copper output was 36% higher than Q2, driven by higher grades at African assets KCC and Mutanda, and at Antamina and Antapaccay. ^[11]
Other metals:
- Cobalt up 8% year‑to‑date to 28,500 tonnes, reflecting strong output from Mutanda.
- Zinc up 10% year‑to‑date to 709,400 tonnes.
- Nickel down 16%, and ferrochrome halved as the company rationalises parts of that portfolio. ^[12]
Coal:
- Steelmaking coal volumes more than doubled year‑on‑year to 24.7 million tonnes, reflecting the consolidation of Elk Valley Resources.
- Energy coal production of 73.5 million tonnes was broadly flat versus 2024. ^[13]

Crucially, Glencore maintained overall 2025 production guidance but tightened the ranges, and said it now expects full‑year marketing EBIT around the mid‑point of its upgraded $2.3–3.5 billion long‑term range. ^[14]

For copper specifically, third‑party coverage indicates that 2025 copper guidance has been narrowed to roughly 850,000–875,000 tonnes, signalling confidence in a strong H2 recovery. ^[15]

Financial performance: from 2024 earnings to 2025 half‑year results

2024 earnings: profits down, cash still flowing

For 2024, Glencore reported:

Adjusted EBITDA around $14.4 billion, down roughly 16% year‑on‑year as coal and gas prices normalised from the extreme 2022–2023 spike.
Net debt rising to about $11.2 billion, driven largely by the Elk Valley Resources coal acquisition and elevated capex. TS2 Tech+1

Reuters also highlighted that Glencore used the 2024 results to announce a $2.2 billion capital‑return package for shareholders in respect of 2024 earnings: about $1.2 billion of cash distributions and $1.0 billion of share buybacks, after a relatively lean year for payouts in 2023. ^[16]

Against weaker earnings and falling coal prices, some analysts argued that Glencore’s profits had dropped to their lowest level in four years, with coal no longer delivering the windfall margins seen during the energy crisis. ^[17]

H1 2025: lower earnings, higher debt, but H2 skew

Glencore’s 2025 Half‑Year Report (6 August) shows a company in mid‑transition: ^[18]

Adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion in H1 2025, down 14% versus H1 2024.
- Industrial (mining and smelting) EBITDA: $3.8 billion, down 17%.
- Marketing EBIT: $1.4 billion, down 8%. ^[19]
Net debt (including marketing lease liabilities) rising to $14.5 billion, up about $3.2 billion from the end of 2024, after funding:
- $3.2 billion of net capex;
- $1.8 billion of shareholder returns; and
- A $1.1 billion increase in non‑readily marketable inventory linked to commodity pre‑pay and lending deals. ^[20]

Management stressed that 2025 is heavily second‑half‑weighted for copper, with guidance implying roughly a 40%/60% split between H1 and H2, and said they expect healthy cash flow generation and meaningful de‑leveraging in H2 2025, assuming commodity prices hold broadly around current levels. ^[21]

On the cost side, the group’s ongoing portfolio review identified around $1 billion of recurring cost‑saving opportunities, with more than half targeted for delivery by the end of 2025 and the remainder by end‑2026. ^[22]

Capital returns: buybacks, dividends and portfolio moves

2025 capital‑return framework

In February 2025, Glencore laid out a plan to return about $2.2 billion to shareholders in respect of 2024:

Around $1.2 billion of cash distributions (effectively dividends), paid in two $0.05 per‑share tranches in April and August 2025;
A $1 billion buyback programme, on top of the group’s base distribution formula (a fixed $1 billion plus 25% of industrial free cash flow). TS2 Tech

At current share‑price levels, those cash distributions equate to a low‑single‑digit dividend yield, before factoring in the impact of buybacks on per‑share metrics. TS2 Tech

Active $1 billion buyback to February 2026

On 7 July 2025, Glencore formally launched a new $1 billion share‑buyback to be executed by UBS and scheduled to run until the publication of the 2025 annual results (expected February 2026). TS2 Tech

Daily transaction notices on the London Stock Exchange and via South Africa’s SENS service show steady repurchases through October and November, including a JSE announcement dated 1 December 2025 detailing buy‑back activity up to late November. ^[23]

Buybacks of this size—millions of shares a day at recent run rates—both offset Swiss withholding‑tax issues and shrink the share count, potentially amplifying per‑share earnings and distributions if profits stabilise.

Century Aluminum stake cut: monetising an over‑earning asset

In November, Reuters reported that Glencore had cut its stake in US aluminium producer Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) from 43% to about 33%, selling 9 million shares for roughly $272 million after the stock soared around 80% since June, helped by the US decision to double aluminium import tariffs to 50%. ^[24]

Glencore converted preferred stock into ordinary shares at the same time, leaving it with roughly 36 million shares (about 33% of the equity) but freeing up cash from what had become an over‑earning position. ^[25]

For GLEN shareholders, that move underscores management’s willingness to crystallise gains in hot assets and recycle capital into buybacks, debt reduction or new projects.

Strategic deals and energy‑transition exposure

Recent months have seen Glencore deepen its role in the energy transition value chain:

Battery recycling – Glencore has acquired Canadian battery recycler Li‑Cycle out of creditor protection, rebranding the business as Glencore Battery Recycling (GBR) and integrating its North American and European plants into the group’s circular‑economy offering. TS2 Tech
Cobalt and critical metals – The group has backed a cobalt‑focused investment company planning a London listing, reinforcing its role as a key supplier to electric‑vehicle and battery markets. ^[26]
“Green” aluminium – Glencore has taken stakes and offtake positions in low‑carbon aluminium platforms, including as a cornerstone investor in a recent Hong Kong IPO for a vertically integrated producer pitching a more climate‑friendly profile. TS2 Tech+1

Together with its copper, cobalt and nickel mines, these moves keep Glencore at the centre of energy‑transition metals, even as coal remains a major profit contributor.

Politics and smelters: Australia lifeline, Canadian pressure

The company’s smelting footprint has become a political story in its own right:

In Australia, the federal and Queensland governments have pledged up to A$600 million (about $394 million) to keep Glencore’s Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville refinery running for three years, recognising their importance to domestic copper processing and regional employment. ^[27]
In Canada, Glencore’s Horne smelter faces intense pressure over arsenic emissions and potential closure scenarios, including a class‑action lawsuit, even as the company insists it is working on emissions‑reduction plans rather than planning an immediate shutdown. TS2 Tech

For investors, these stories highlight how environmental regulation and government support can simultaneously protect and threaten value in Glencore’s “legacy” industrial assets.

Corporate structure: staying listed in London (for now)

In early 2025, Glencore openly considered moving its primary listing from London to New York, arguing that UK valuations may under‑reward its scale and cash‑generation profile. TS2 Tech+1

By August, however, UK press reported that the company had decided to retain its London listing, at least for now—a modest vote of confidence in the FTSE 100 but also a reminder that listing location remains a live strategic option if the valuation gap with US peers persists. ^[28]

Glencore’s role in Tullow Oil’s debt drama

A more esoteric but important piece of the Glencore puzzle is its role as a financier and marketer:

A recent Financial Times analysis describes how Tullow Oil, saddled with $1.3 billion of senior secured bonds due in six months, is exploring refinancing options while running short of cash.
Glencore sits below those bondholders in the capital structure but holds a $400 million junior loan maturing in 2028 and already markets Tullow’s oil, potentially giving it significant leverage in any restructuring. ^[29]

The episode illustrates how Glencore’s trading and lending relationships can create upside optionality—and risk—beyond its traditional mines and smelters.

Analyst views and GLEN stock forecasts for 2025–2026

Consensus ratings

Across major data providers, Glencore screens as a “Moderate Buy”:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy from 6 analysts (4 buy, 2 hold).
- Average 12‑month price target: 388.33p (range 350p–470p), implying about 8% upside from a reference price of ~360p. ^[30]
TipRanks:
- 10 analysts over the last three months: 6 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell, also labelled Moderate Buy.
- Average 12‑month target: 389p, with a 16% upside versus a last price of 335p at the time of the survey; target range 320p–440p. ^[31]

The overall picture: modest but positive expected upside, with a clear skew towards “buy” recommendations but few truly aggressive targets.

Citi’s take ahead of Capital Markets Day

A widely cited note from Citi ahead of Glencore’s Capital Markets Day (CMD)—scheduled for early December 2025 in London—adds colour to that consensus: ^[32]

Citi rates Glencore a “Buy” with a 440p price target.
The bank expects 2025 marketing EBIT of around $3.1 billion, near the top of Glencore’s own long‑term guidance.
It sees Glencore targeting 1 million tonnes of copper production per year by 2028, supported by African assets and Peru’s Coroccohuayco project.
Citi anticipates that cash distributions will remain steady, with scope for extra buybacks from 2026 as integration synergies from Elk Valley Resources and other deals come through. ^[33]

Investors will be watching the CMD closely for any tweaks to 2025 guidance, updated capex plans, and clarity on coal’s long‑term run‑down path.

Key drivers for GLEN in 2025–2026

1. Copper and other transition metals

With copper prices still elevated and global supply constrained by grades, water and permitting issues, Glencore’s copper portfolio is central to the bull case:

A combination of higher H2 2025 volumes and potentially firmer prices could rebuild margins after a weak first half. ^[34]
Longer‑term, projects like MARA in Argentina and the Coroccohuayco development in Peru underpin aspirations to reach 1 Mtpa of copper by 2028. ^[35]

If copper stays tight, Glencore’s mix of mines, smelters and trading positions it well—but the flip‑side is high sensitivity to a cyclical downturn.

2. Coal: cash cow or climate liability?

Glencore’s decision in 2024 to retain rather than spin off its coal business means it remains a huge player in both thermal and steelmaking coal, even as it pledges net‑zero by 2050. ^[36]

Coal generated outsized profits in 2022–2023, but weaker prices in 2024–2025 have dragged earnings down. ^[37]
The group is now running some thermal‑coal assets down while integrating long‑life coking‑coal mines from Elk Valley. ^[38]

How investors weigh cash‑flow durability against climate and policy risk will remain a central valuation question.

3. Marketing division resilience

Glencore’s marketing (trading) arm has historically smoothed the cycle:

In 2024, marketing EBIT of about $3.2 billion landed near the top of guidance, even as coal prices normalised. ^[39]
For 2025, management expects mid‑range performance in its upgraded $2.3–3.5 billion guidance band, while Citi sees upside to around $3.1 billion. ^[40]

Persistent volatility in metals, coal and energy markets is generally good news for Glencore’s traders, though it can complicate risk management.

4. Balance sheet and capital allocation

By mid‑2025, net debt of $14.5 billion leaves Glencore more leveraged than some diversified peers, but still within management’s comfort zone (net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA a little over 1x). ^[41]

The core debate is whether management can:

Deliver the promised $1 billion cost‑saving programme;
Keep capex under control as it invests in copper, recycling and low‑carbon assets; and
Continue meaningful buybacks and dividends without over‑leveraging into a downturn.

Moves like the Century Aluminum selldown suggest a more disciplined recycling of capital, but the jury is still out on long‑term returns on invested capital, which some third‑party data place below Glencore’s estimated cost of capital. TS2 Tech+1

5. Legal, ESG and governance risk

Finally, Glencore carries a long trail of bribery, corruption and environmental controversies and remains under scrutiny from regulators and NGOs. ^[42]

Recent headlines about smelter emissions, UK audit investigations and ESG fund exposure show that governance risk remains priced into the stock and could resurface in valuation multiples whenever new cases appear. ^[43]

Is Glencore stock a buy now?

From a purely informational standpoint:

Valuation: GLEN trades on a depressed earnings multiple (headline P/E is temporarily negative due to non‑cash impairments), with consensus targets 8–16% above the current share price and a capital‑return yield (dividends plus buybacks) that is competitive with other large miners. ^[44]
Cyclicality: Earnings are highly sensitive to copper, coal and broader commodity prices. A soft landing with strong metals could justify higher multiples; a hard landing or policy shock to coal could hurt both earnings and sentiment. ^[45]
Strategy: Management is doubling down on energy‑transition metals and recycling while managing down thermal coal. Execution—on cost savings, project delivery and ESG remediation—will determine whether that strategy closes the gap between return on capital and cost of capital. ^[46]

For some investors, Glencore is an attractive high‑beta, cash‑returning play on copper and energy‑transition metals. For others, the combination of coal, leverage and legal baggage justifies a permanent discount.

References

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HSBC Holdings Plc Stock on 1 December 2025: AI Partnership With Mistral, Hang Seng Buyout and Dividend Outlook

Glencore Share Price Rises into December: Latest GLEN Stock News, Forecasts and 2025–2026 Outlook