London, Feb 7, 2026, 07:46 GMT — The market is shut.
- After tumbling earlier on news that Rio Tinto discussions had ended, Glencore shares managed to close Friday a bit higher.
- Clarity on portfolio shifts is top of mind for investors, particularly when it comes to copper-heavy assets.
- Glencore’s next major event: full-year earnings, set for Feb. 18.
Glencore (GLEN.L) ended Friday’s session at 478.1 pence, up 0.6%, clawing back a portion of Thursday’s near 7% tumble that followed the collapse of merger talks with Rio Tinto. Shares swung from 465.7 to 486.7 pence through the day, reflecting traders’ sensitivity to deal chatter. 1
Now that the takeover chatter has faded, focus snaps back to the fundamentals for the miner-trader: metals prices, volumes, returns. With deal talks shelved, investors are left wondering—what does Glencore sell, buy or build from here?
The calendar flips, too. After M&A chatter kicked off the week, earnings season takes over—guidance and cashflow step into the spotlight, while all that hazy talk of “strategic logic” faces a reality check.
On Feb. 5, Rio Tinto said talks with Glencore about a possible merger or business combination had ended, with the company unable to strike a deal that made sense for its shareholders. The announcement, issued under Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code—the so-called “no intention to bid” rule—means Rio can’t come back with an offer unless certain conditions are met, such as board consent or a rival bid appearing. 2
Glencore’s board fired back, arguing the proposed deal would have left Rio with both the chairman and CEO positions, along with an equity split that Glencore claims “significantly undervalued” what it would bring to the table. They also criticized the offer for failing to properly recognize the worth of Glencore’s copper division and its project pipeline. 3
With consolidation on hold, investors are now looking for Glencore to shift toward selling assets. Reuters said the company is likely to unveil a deal to offload its 70% interest in Kazzinc within weeks, with analysts putting the value near $5 billion. Iain Pyle of Aberdeen noted that getting rid of assets “individually” might leave Glencore with a more tightly focused copper and trading operation—one that, in his view, could command a higher valuation. 4
Glencore has staked new ground in the Democratic Republic of Congo, saying on Feb. 3 it signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding—still short of a full agreement—with the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium. The deal on the table: Orion could buy a 40% stake in Glencore’s holdings in Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company. That would put the combined enterprise value around $9 billion, counting debt. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle called it “pleasing” that both Orion and the U.S. government acknowledged Glencore’s place as a key Western supplier of copper and cobalt in the DRC. 5
The immediate issue for the stock: will these processes actually progress past discussion? Investors want details—timelines, pricing, and Glencore’s plans for any proceeds. Another key point: can management maintain the core trading business while overhauling the portfolio?
The flip side? Asset sales might take longer than hoped, valuations may come up short, and politics—particularly in riskier spots—could get messy, narrowing Glencore’s options as merging slips off the table. And let’s not forget: a non-binding agreement can always unravel in due diligence, with no fanfare.
Feb. 18 looms as the next marker, with Glencore set to drop its full-year results and host a UK webcast that morning. The market’s focus: that update, not the merger retrospectives, will probably drive the next move in the stock. 6
