London, Jan 10, 2026, 07:50 GMT — Market closed
- Rio Tinto confirmed preliminary talks on a possible all-share deal involving Glencore
- Glencore’s London-listed shares closed sharply higher on Friday
- Investors are now weighing coal exposure, the value of Glencore’s trading arm and the next takeover deadlines
Glencore (GLEN.L) shares closed up 9.6% on Friday at 452.65 pence after Rio Tinto confirmed preliminary discussions about a possible combination that could include an all-share merger. The stock traded in a 437.9–459.0 pence range and is now sitting near the top end of its recent band as London markets remain shut for the weekend. 1
The revived talks matter because they point to another big swing at consolidation among miners chasing copper and other industrial metals, while trying not to spook shareholders on coal. A combined Rio-Glencore would be valued at about $207 billion and could overtake BHP Group by market value, though analysts have flagged regulatory risk, including potential scrutiny in China given Chinalco’s stake in Rio. 2
Rio has indicated any transaction would likely be an all-share offer — meaning Glencore holders would be paid in Rio stock — and could be executed via a scheme of arrangement, a court-approved takeover process often used in the UK. Under the UK Takeover Code, Rio has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to announce a firm intention to make an offer or to walk away, unless the Takeover Panel agrees to an extension. 3
Copper is the obvious prize. A study by S&P Global this week forecast copper demand rising 50% by 2040 to 42 million metric tons a year, and warned of a supply shortfall of more than 10 million tons annually without a step-up in mining and recycling. 4
There is more to Glencore than mines, and that is part of the appeal. Sources close to the matter said Rio is also drawn to Glencore’s marketing arm — its trading and logistics business — and would look to keep it; Goldman Sachs estimates that unit could be worth $4 billion by 2030. “Just how Glencore’s coal and trading arms fit in with Rio’s business model … are key questions,” Hargreaves Lansdown’s Derren Nathan said. 5
But investors are already arguing about what Rio would have to give up — or pay — to make it work. “Very rarely do the big major miners make very good acquisitions,” Atlas Funds Management chief investment officer Hugh Dive said, as some shareholders questioned the track record on large mining mergers and the handling of Glencore’s coal exposure. 6
The takeover process is also starting to drive filings. The Takeover Panel said anyone interested in 1% or more of relevant securities in Glencore or Rio must make an opening position disclosure by 3:30 p.m. London time on Jan. 22, detailing holdings and short positions, with further dealing disclosures due after trades. 7
For traders, Friday’s high around 459 pence is the first level on the upside, with Thursday’s 413 pence close now a near-term support line if the headlines cool. In the broader mining space, Anglo American shares rose on Friday as a European Commission filing showed its deal with Canada’s Teck Resources is heading toward antitrust clearance in Europe, keeping the sector’s M&A theme alive. 8
Glencore’s next scheduled catalysts include its full-year production report and resources and reserves update on Jan. 29, followed by preliminary annual results on Feb. 18. The nearer deal clock, though, is Feb. 5 — the date Rio must either put a firm offer on the table or step back. 9
