Glencore plc (LON: GLEN, JSE: GLN, OTC: GLNCY / GLCNF) is back in the spotlight after a busy early December: a fresh analyst upgrade, a new 2026 corporate calendar, and an increasingly copper‑centric strategy — all against a backdrop of labour tensions and production growing pains.
This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analysis on Glencore stock as of 11 December 2025.
Glencore share price snapshot as of 11 December 2025
- On the London Stock Exchange, Glencore recently traded around 380–385p, with MarketBeat citing 383.54p in early trading on 11 December and Glencore’s own investor page showing a prior close near 380.4p on 10 December. [1]
- On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the stock last refreshed around ZAR 86.24 on the morning of 11 December. [2]
- In the US, the main ADR (ticker GLNCY) closed at $10.18 on 10 December, close to its 12‑month high. [3]
- The thinly traded US pink sheet line (GLCNF) ended 10 December at $5.10, up more than 11% over the past two weeks. [4]
UK-focused commentary has noted that Glencore’s London share price is up roughly 25% over the last three months, reflecting renewed investor interest as copper prices stay firm and sentiment improves after a tough 2024. [5]
Today’s top headline: Glencore publishes its 2026 corporate calendar
On 11 December 2025, Glencore released its 2026 corporate calendar, laying out the key dates that will act as catalysts for the stock next year. [6]
The main investor events are:
- 29 January 2026 – Production Report for the 12 months ended 31 December 2025, plus the Resources & Reserves Report
- 18 February 2026 – Preliminary Annual Results 2025
- 30 April 2026 – First Quarter Production Report
- 28 May 2026 – Annual General Meeting
- 29 July 2026 – Half‑Year Production Report
- 5 August 2026 – Half‑Year Results
- 29 October 2026 – Third Quarter Production Report
For shareholders and traders, this calendar effectively maps out when new information risk will hit the tape: annual numbers and reserves in late January and February, then a steady rhythm of production and interim reports through the year.
Fresh 11 December 2025 development: AWU threatens strike at Townsville copper refinery
Balancing that relatively routine corporate calendar is a more worrying operational headline.
On 11 December 2025, Mining Monthly reported that members of the Australian Workers Union (AWU) at Glencore’s North Queensland Copper Refinery in Townsville have instructed the union to begin the protected industrial action process. Union leaders accuse Glencore of betraying the commitment workers showed during tougher times. [7]
Key takeaways:
- The process is at an early stage, but it signals escalating labour tensions at a key copper processing asset.
- Any prolonged industrial action could disrupt refinery output, potentially affecting Glencore’s copper marketing flows and local customer supply.
- The dispute comes shortly after Glencore reorganised parts of its industrial portfolio and cut jobs in other regions (see below), which may be contributing to worker unease.
Investors should treat this as a non‑trivial near‑term risk: not yet material to group‑wide earnings, but emblematic of the social and labour complexity that comes with Glencore’s global footprint.
Analyst focus: Freedom Capital Markets upgrades Glencore to “Buy”
Also today, Freedom Capital Markets upgraded Glencore’s US ADR (GLNCY) from Hold to Buy, explicitly backing the company’s copper‑heavy growth strategy. [8]
Highlights from the note:
- The target price is raised to $13.90 per ADR.
- With GLNCY trading around $10.18, Freedom sees roughly 36% upside from current levels. [9]
- The upgrade is tied directly to Glencore’s Capital Markets Day 2025, where management outlined a path to significantly higher copper production over the next decade. [10]
- The broker argues Glencore is “constructively bullish” on copper thanks to record or near‑record prices and a stronger long‑term price outlook for the metal.
Freedom’s view stands at the bullish end of the spectrum and contrasts with more conservative consensus targets (covered below), but it reinforces the idea that copper is now the core equity story for Glencore.
Capital Markets Day 2025: copper becomes the headline act
On 3 December 2025, Glencore hosted its first Capital Markets Day since 2022 in Baar, Switzerland. The event cemented copper’s central role in the group’s future. [11]
Key strategic messages from Glencore’s own statements and subsequent coverage:
- Glencore claims “significant progress” in de‑risking its copper project portfolio and lays out a pathway to produce around 1 million tonnes of copper per year by 2028. [12]
- Longer term, the company is targeting about 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035, which would put it among the world’s largest producers. [13]
- Management expects copper‑equivalent production (i.e., including other metals converted into copper units) to grow at roughly 4% per year between 2026 and 2029, with pure copper output growing nearer 9.4% per year over the same period. [14]
- The growth is anchored in a set of mainly brownfield expansions and restarts, including:
- The Alumbrera restart in Argentina (Q4 2026 restart, first production in H1 2028, with an expected average of around 75,000 tonnes of copper per year plus gold and molybdenum). [15]
- Expansion work at Collahuasi in Chile (joint venture with Anglo American and Mitsui), which boosts long‑term output but constrains near‑term production as development work proceeds. [16]
- Further projects in Argentina, Peru, the DRC and the US, as summarised by Argus Media’s project table. [17]
At the same time, Glencore emphasised that its coal, LNG, power and carbon marketing businesses remain strategically important as the world navigates both current energy needs and the low‑carbon transition. [18]
For equity investors, the upshot is simple: Glencore is leaning hard into copper, betting that demand from electrification, grid expansion and AI‑related infrastructure will keep the metal in structural deficit and support higher prices.
Production and guidance: short‑term headwinds, long‑term ambition
Glencore’s third‑quarter and year‑to‑date production numbers, released on 29 October 2025, illustrate the tension between short‑term operational issues and long‑term growth plans. [19]
From the company’s Q3 production report and Reuters’ summary:
- Own‑sourced copper production in the first nine months of 2025 was 583,500 tonnes, down 17% year‑on‑year, driven largely by lower ore grades and mine sequencing at Collahuasi, Antamina, Antapaccay and KCC. [20]
- However, Q3 copper output alone was 36% higher than Q2, as grades improved at key operations and planned sequencing kicked in. [21]
- Cobalt production was up about 8% versus the comparable 2024 period, mainly thanks to higher grades and volumes at Mutanda. [22]
- Zinc production rose roughly 10%, while nickel output slipped about 9% after adjusting for the Koniambo transition to care and maintenance. [23]
- Ferrochrome production fell sharply (over 50%) as Glencore idled certain South African smelters due to poor margins and power‑related challenges. [24]
- Steelmaking coal production of 24.7 million tonnes reflected the integration of the Elk Valley Resources (EVR) assets acquired in 2024. [25]
On guidance:
- Glencore tightened its 2025 copper guidance to 850,000–875,000 tonnes, down from a previous range whose upper bound was 890,000 tonnes, and now expects to finish at the lower end of that narrowed band. [26]
- Argus reports that 2026 copper guidance has been cut from 930,000 tonnes to 810,000–870,000 tonnes, mainly due to mine plan changes and development work at Collahuasi. [27]
So while the headline long‑term copper targets are aggressive, the near‑term production path is bumpy. This is precisely the backdrop that makes the recent analyst upgrade noteworthy: the bull case is that today’s short‑term constraints sow the seeds of tomorrow’s higher‑margin volume.
Cost cuts and restructuring: 1,000 jobs eliminated
On 3 December 2025, Reuters reported that Glencore has eliminated around 1,000 roles as part of a streamlining of its industrial operating structure. [28]
While details were limited, the move:
- Aligns with management’s push for “accountability and ownership” in operations, as emphasised at Capital Markets Day. [29]
- Should, in theory, improve cost efficiency and margins over time.
- Risks further labour tensions, particularly in regions already grappling with job cuts and power or infrastructure issues (for example, in South African ferrochrome and Australian operations). [30]
Investors should see this as part of a broader portfolio and cost reset, rather than a one‑off event.
Analyst and market views: what the Street is saying about Glencore
London listing (GLEN.L): “Moderate Buy” with modest upside
For the primary London line GLEN.L, data compiled by MarketBeat show: [31]
- Consensus rating:Moderate Buy
- 4 Buy ratings
- 2 Hold ratings
- Average 12‑month price target:391.67p
- High target: 470p
- Low target: 320p
- Based on a recent price of 383.54p, the consensus target implies a modest upside of around 2%.
That is a far more conservative stance than Freedom Capital Markets’ bullish US‑ADR target, and it suggests that many UK‑based analysts are already pricing in a good chunk of the copper growth story — or are wary of cyclical and ESG risks.
US ADR (GLNCY): mixed picture between consensus and fresh upgrade
For the New York‑traded ADR GLNCY, MarketBeat reports the following: [32]
- Consensus rating:Moderate Buy from seven covering firms
- 3 Hold
- 3 Buy
- 1 Strong Buy
- Average 12‑month price target:$9.30
Because GLNCY is currently trading around $10.18, the consensus target actually sits below the market price. [33]
Freedom Capital Markets’ new $13.90 target is therefore well above the existing Street average and may invite further reassessments if others adopt a similarly optimistic view of Glencore’s long‑term copper earnings power. [34]
Technical view (GLCNF): short‑term “buy candidate”
Technical analysis service StockInvest.us currently classifies the pink‑sheet line GLCNF as a “buy candidate”, noting that: [35]
- The share price has risen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, gaining about 11.7% over two weeks.
- Both short‑ and long‑term moving averages are giving bullish signals.
- Based on current trends, their model projects a 13% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability that the price will sit between $5.11 and $5.85.
- Near‑term support is flagged around $5.04, with resistance around $5.12–$5.17; low trading volume is highlighted as a source of increased risk.
This is pure technical pattern analysis, not fundamental research, but it broadly aligns with the idea that the stock is in an uptrend heading into 2026.
Dividends and yield expectations
Dividend expectations play a major role in Glencore’s valuation, especially for income‑oriented UK investors.
- A recent UK equity article observed that after the recent share price rally, Glencore’s forward dividend yield is forecast around 2.1% for 2025, rising to about 2.8% in 2026. [36]
- On the US side, StockInvest’s dividend history for GLCNF shows multiple $0.05‑per‑share payouts declared during 2025, consistent with a modest but recurring cash return profile. [37]
Compared with some other big miners, those yields are not especially high, which suggests investors are paying more for Glencore’s trading franchise and copper optionality than for its immediate cash income.
Valuation: “modest upside” or “deep value”?
Different valuation lenses are producing very different narratives around Glencore right now.
- A recent piece of London‑focused analysis pegged Glencore’s “fair value” around £4.06, versus a cash share price near £3.80, implying only modest upside from current levels on a discounted cash flow basis. [38]
- For London‑listed GLEN.L, the median analyst target (around 392p) also signals low‑single‑digit upside. [39]
- In contrast, Freedom Capital Markets’ $13.90 target for GLNCY implies mid‑thirties percentage upside from the US ADR’s latest close, assuming copper prices stay strong and long‑term project delivery stays on track. [40]
In other words, valuation is bifurcated:
- Cautious models emphasise cyclicality, ESG risks and execution risk on the copper pipeline, and therefore don’t give Glencore full credit for its 2035 ambitions.
- More bullish models treat Glencore as a relatively rare combination of large‑scale copper, strong trading and still‑significant coal cash flows, arguing that this mix should command a higher multiple if the energy transition remains metals‑intensive.
Portfolio moves, M&A and structural changes
Glencore’s equity story is also shaped by ongoing portfolio and strategic moves beyond copper.
Viterra–Bunge deal
Glencore is a key shareholder behind Viterra, the agricultural trader being acquired by Bunge Global SA in an $8.2 billion deal. In mid‑2025 Bunge was reported to be close to securing Chinese antitrust approval, and by July Glencore said that all regulatory closing conditions had been satisfied with the merger expected to close in early July. [41]
The transaction effectively:
- Simplifies Glencore’s exposure to agri‑trading by rolling it into a larger listed entity, and
- Frees up capital and management focus for metals and energy.
Century Aluminum stake reduction
Last month, Glencore reduced its stake in Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX), prompting the US smelter’s share price to fall sharply on the day of the announcement. [42]
Analytically, this looks like part of a broader:
- Capital recycling effort into higher‑priority areas such as copper, and
- Exit from some downstream aluminum exposure, while still maintaining supply and offtake relationships.
South African ferrochrome and power issues
Reports from South Africa indicate that the Glencore–Merafe ferrochrome joint venture is idling two smelters, with retrenchments partly attributed to chronic issues at power utility Eskom. [43]
For Glencore, this underscores:
- The operational and political risk attached to certain legacy assets.
- The tension between maintaining optionality in ferroalloys and preserving margins in the face of rising energy costs and carbon pressure.
Sector‑wide M&A chatter
A Reuters Breakingviews column from September suggested that a potential Anglo American–Teck Resources combination could, in time, revive the idea of a mega‑deal involving Glencore and Rio Tinto, though this remains firmly in the realm of sector speculation rather than active negotiations. [44]
The article mainly serves as a reminder that in mining, “big‑bang” consolidation narratives never stray too far from the conversation, especially when balance sheets are healthy and long‑dated copper assets are scarce.
Regulatory and geopolitical context: cobalt, Argentina and climate policy
Three additional strands of news round out the macro backdrop:
- In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the government recently issued cobalt export quotas as an eight‑month export ban comes to an end — a crucial development for Glencore, which is a major producer and trader of cobalt from the country. [45]
- In Argentina, Glencore has applied for two copper projects with combined capex of over $13 billion to be included in a national investment incentive regime, underlining the strategic importance of that country in its long‑term copper roadmap. [46]
- Argentina’s new administration has also signalled a willingness to adjust glacier protection rules to unlock copper mining investment, which could indirectly support Glencore’s project pipeline but may draw environmental scrutiny. [47]
All three themes reinforce the idea that Glencore sits at the intersection of geopolitics, decarbonisation policy and resource nationalism — a position that creates both outsized opportunity and outsized risk.
Key risks for Glencore shareholders
Based on current information as of 11 December 2025, the main risk clusters include:
- Operational and labour risk
- The AWU’s threatened strike in Townsville, plus job cuts and smelter closures in South Africa, point to heightened labour and social risk. [48]
- Project execution and permitting risk
- The copper growth plan leans heavily on complex, long‑dated projects in Chile, Argentina, the DRC and the US, all of which face permitting, infrastructure and community challenges. [49]
- Commodity price and trading risk
- Glencore’s marketing division thrives on volatility, but sudden swings in copper, coal or cobalt prices can still hit mark‑to‑market, working capital and counterparties.
- ESG and policy risk, especially around coal
- Coal remains a major cash generator. That boosts near‑term free cash flow but raises the odds of policy and investor pressure over time, from taxes and windfall measures to financing constraints.
None of these are new, but recent news — particularly labour disputes and guidance cuts — show they remain very live issues for the equity story.
Bottom line: what 11 December 2025 means for Glencore stock
As of 11 December 2025, the Glencore narrative looks like this:
- Today’s “hard” news is relatively incremental: a 2026 corporate calendar that maps out key reporting dates, an AWU‑led escalation in labour tension at the Townsville copper refinery, and a bullish analyst upgrade on the US ADR. [50]
- The bigger story is still the one told on 3 December: a miner‑trader reshaping itself around copper, accepting short‑term production volatility and restructuring pain in exchange for long‑term exposure to the energy transition. [51]
- Valuation remains contested: consensus targets imply only modest upside in London, while some US‑based analysis sees room for much larger gains if copper prices and project delivery cooperate. [52]
For investors and traders tracking Glencore, 11 December 2025 doesn’t deliver a dramatic inflection point — but it locks in the timetable for 2026 disclosures, adds a new data point to the analyst sentiment ledger, and highlights the human and operational complexity behind the company’s push to become a copper powerhouse.
References
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