Global AI-PC Market Outlook 2025-2030: Rise of the NPU-Enabled Personal Computer

• AI PCs go mainstream: Annual shipments of AI-enabled PCs are skyrocketing – from ~50 million units in 2024 to forecasts of 100+ million in 2025 – on track to comprise over half of all PC sales by 2026 computerworld.com io-fund.com. Analysts predict that by 2030, virtually every new PC sold will have on-device AI capabilities ghacks.net.
• On-device AI horsepower soars: PC processors now integrate dedicated NPUs (neural processing units) delivering tens of TOPS (trillions of operations per second) for AI tasks. Today’s AI PC chips boast ~40–50 TOPS NPUs (e.g. Qualcomm’s 45 TOPS, Intel ~48, AMD 50) io-fund.com io-fund.com, and this is set to climb each generation through 2030. These AI accelerators enable real-time features like natural language assistance, image generation, and video enhancements without relying on the cloud computerworld.com computerworld.com.
• OEMs and platforms in an AI race: Top PC makers – Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, ASUS, and others – are rapidly rolling out AI-PC models across laptops and desktops. Lenovo and HP lead global PC volume (24.8% and 20.7% market share in Q2 2025) finviz.com, while Apple’s M-series Macs (100% AI-enabled since 2020) form a significant slice of AI PC shipments. Microsoft is driving the ecosystem with Windows 11’s new Copilot AI assistant and “Copilot+” certified PCs, spurring nearly every OEM to offer NPU-equipped models in their premium line-ups blogs.microsoft.com.
• Enterprise demand outpaces consumer: Businesses are embracing AI PCs for productivity and security benefits, spearheading adoption in the next upgrade cycle. Gartner projects 100% of enterprise PC purchases will be AI PCs by end of 2026 io-fund.com, as Windows 10’s 2025 end-of-life forces a refresh and companies see on-device AI as critical for competitive advantage. Consumers are following more slowly – surveys show many users aren’t yet convinced they “need” an AI PC computerworld.com – but as use-cases grow and prices fall, AI features are becoming a standard expectation in consumer PCs too.
• Prices and value balancing out: Early AI PCs command a price premium (roughly 5–15% higher cost than non-AI models) theregister.com, with 2024’s AI notebooks largely in high-end brackets (one-third sold for $2,000+ nielseniq.com). Average selling prices will normalize over time: increased competition, higher volume, and mid-range AI chips are already pushing AI PC prices down nielseniq.com. By late decade, AI hardware will be a default feature rather than a luxury upsell, though manufacturers in 2025 remain eager to tout AI capabilities to boost ASPs.
• AI features become ubiquitous: The “attach rate” of AI-powered features – from enhanced video conferencing to local generative AI assistants – is climbing as NPUs proliferate. Modern collaboration apps use NPUs for noise suppression, eye contact correction, real-time translation, and auto-summary of meetings dell.com dell.com. Windows Studio Effects now runs filters, background blur, and voice focus on NPUs, and Microsoft 365 Copilot can generate content locally when hardware allows computerworld.com. By 2028, virtually all new PCs in use will be running AI-driven functions daily, up from just ~5% of PCs doing so in 2023 computerworld.com. Users benefit from snappier, more private AI responses since data can be processed on the device instead of sent to cloud servers.
• Key milestones and industry moves: 2024 marked a tipping point, with Microsoft launching Windows Copilot (the first OS-level AI assistant on PC) blogs.windows.com and partnering with every major OEM to debut “Copilot+” AI PCs (NPU-boosted devices) in June 2024 blogs.microsoft.com. Intel’s 14th-gen Core Ultra (Meteor Lake) and upcoming Lunar Lake chips introduced built-in AI engines, as did AMD’s Ryzen 7040 series (branded “Ryzen AI”) and Qualcomm’s 8cx Gen3 – all hitting the market by 2024–25. In 2025, AMD unveiled its Ryzen AI 300 series mobile CPUs with a class-leading 50 TOPS NPU to meet Microsoft’s Copilot+ requirements tomshardware.com tomshardware.com, while Intel’s next-gen Core Ultra promised up to 48 TOPS of AI performance io-fund.com. Apple’s silicon roadmap continued apace: the M2 chip’s 15.8 TOPS Neural Engine gave way to the M3 and M4 chips doubling core counts – the M4 offers 38 TOPS on-device AI throughput io-fund.com, supporting Apple’s growing portfolio of local AI features in macOS. Nvidia, not to be left out, is leveraging its powerful GPUs for PC AI workloads and reportedly co-developing an Arm-based PC CPU with MediaTek to debut in 2025 io-fund.com. By 2026–2027, expect new PC platforms (including potential Windows on Arm entrants) to further escalate the NPU arms race, delivering well above 100 TOPS and enabling more advanced local AI (like running sizable language models entirely on a laptop).

AI-Powered PC Shipments Surge (2025–2030 Forecast)

AI PCs – defined by hardware and software optimized for on-device AI – are on a steep adoption curve. Industry analysts are exceedingly bullish on shipment growth through the latter 2020s:

• 2024: The inflection began in 2024 with an estimated 44–54 million AI PCs shipped (roughly 17–18% of total PCs) io-fund.com theregister.com. This was a 165%+ jump over 2023 as multiple vendors released first-generation NPU-equipped models ghacks.net. Canalys reported AI PCs comprised 20% of global PC unit shipments by Q3’24 (about 13.3 million units in that quarter).
• 2025: Momentum accelerates into 2025. Forecasts converge around 100–114 million AI PC shipments in 2025, more than doubling year-on-year io-fund.com ghacks.net. That would be roughly 37–40% of all PCs sold ghacks.net io-fund.com. Gartner’s latest study (Aug 2025) projects 77.8 million AI PCs in 2025 (31% of the market) computerworld.com, but also notes adoption could surpass earlier expectations, given strong commercial demand. Indeed, one Gartner analyst noted about 143 million AI PCs could ship in 2026 (crossing the 50% threshold of sales) if trends hold computerworld.com. IDC likewise expects an inflection in 2025, calling it the true “boom” year of this PC upgrade cycle after an initial spark in late 2024 io-fund.com io-fund.com. In the words of AMD CEO Lisa Su, “we are at the start of a multiyear AI PC cycle… [AI PC is] the most significant innovation that’s come to the PC market in the last 10-plus years” io-fund.com. Her forecast: 2024 was just the beginning, and 2025 would witness the real ramp-up in volume io-fund.com.
• 2026: By 2026, a majority of new PCs are expected to be AI-capable. Intel executives anticipate over 50% of the PC market will be AI PCs in 2026 io-fund.com. Gartner’s analysis concurs, predicting AI PC sales will surpass 50% of total PC shipments by 2026 computerworld.com. In absolute terms, that could mean roughly 140–150 million AI PCs in 2026 (depending on total PC market size). This is the point when AI capability moves from early-adopter feature to baseline checklist item in most PC purchases. Canalys estimates around 55%–70% share in 2026 and continuing to climb io-fund.com. Notably, Microsoft’s next Windows refresh (widely expected around late 2025 or 2026) is poised to center on AI features, which could further spur upgrades io-fund.com.
• 2027–2028: Projections farther out show the trajectory continuing upward but naturally slowing as saturation nears. Canalys sees AI-PC shipments topping 200 million units by 2028, grabbing ~70% of the market io-fund.com. Intel has voiced an even more aggressive outlook: as much as 80% of PCs by 2028 could be AI-equipped io-fund.com. By 2027, the commercial segment in particular will be almost entirely refreshed to AI PCs – nearly 60% of commercial PCs in use are projected to be AI-capable by 2027 io-fund.com. IDC forecasts that by 2028, 94% of all PCs in use will have some level of AI acceleration computerworld.com, effectively making “AI PC” the standard PC. This late-’20s period likely represents the tail end of the rapid growth curve, as the market passes the “early majority” phase and enters full mainstream adoption.
• 2030: Full saturation. According to analysts at Canalys, every PC sold by 2030 will ship with on-board AI hardware (NPUs or similar) ghacks.net. In other words, the term “AI PC” will become redundant – AI capabilities will be as ubiquitous as built-in Wi-Fi or graphics acceleration. Even value-oriented laptops and desktops will include NPUs by this time, though of more modest performance. The installed base of older non-AI PCs will also be largely retired by 2030, given normal replacement cycles. This marks a complete paradigm shift in PC specifications within one decade. As Qualcomm’s CEO Cristiano Amon put it, the advent of the AI PC is “as significant as Windows 95” was to computing io-fund.com, fundamentally changing how we interact with our PCs through on-device intelligence.

It’s worth noting that these rosy forecasts assume that compelling use cases for on-device AI continue to develop. Some industry experts caution there could be speed bumps (e.g. if users don’t see enough everyday benefit to justify upgrades). But so far, investment in AI features by both software and hardware vendors is only intensifying. Real-time language transcription, personal AI assistants, local generative AI image/video tools – these are increasingly part of the standard software bundle on new machines, reinforcing the demand for capable AI hardware inside.

Expert insight: “When the industry is trying to push new AI PCs that come with higher cost at a time when use cases are still being vetted and budgets are tight, that is clearly going to be a challenge. But on-device AI for PCs is inevitable… the impact […] will be positive, even if the inflection point is delayed.” – Ryan Reith, IDC VP idc.com idc.com

In summary, all signs point to a near-certainty that AI-enabled PCs will dominate the latter half of this decade. The consensus of Gartner, IDC, and Canalys is that by 2028–2030 virtually all new PCs will be AI PCs. The exact yearly figures may vary, but the trajectory is clear: AI is set to become a standard feature of PC computing, much like multi-core CPUs or SSD storage did in prior eras.

NPU Performance Tiers: The Evolution of PC AI Hardware (TOPS Race)

At the heart of the AI-PC revolution is specialized silicon: the Neural Processing Unit (NPU) or equivalent AI accelerators embedded in modern CPUs and SoCs. These chips are measured largely by their TOPS (trillions of operations per second) throughput for AI tasks. From 2025 to 2030, we’re observing a rapid climb in NPU performance, as each vendor races to outdo the others and enable more sophisticated on-device AI. Here’s how the landscape looks and where it’s heading:

• Early 2020s Baseline: Apple was a pioneer in bringing NPUs to PCs with its M1 chip (2020) featuring a 16-core Neural Engine capable of 11 TOPS en.wikipedia.org. The M2 (2022) bumped this to ~15.8 TOPS en.wikipedia.org. On the Windows side, NPUs were initially seen in mobile devices (smartphones, tablets) and then small numbers of Arm-based PCs. For instance, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chips for Windows (e.g. 8cx series) had AI engines, but PC adoption was niche until recently. Early PC-focused NPUs (circa 2021–2022) were relatively modest (single-digit TOPS) and mostly in experimental models like Microsoft’s ARM-based Surface Pro X.
• 2023–2024: First Gen AI PC Chips: This period saw mainstream x86 vendors introduce on-die AI accelerators:
  • Intel Meteor Lake (Core 14th Gen) – launched late 2023, it was Intel’s first client CPU with a built-in NPU (branded a VPU, derived from Movidius technology). While Intel didn’t tout TOPS publicly for Meteor Lake’s VPU, its successor gives a clue: Intel’s Lunar Lake (Core Ultra 15th Gen, expected 2025) is said to offer up to 48 TOPS on the NPU io-fund.com. Meteor Lake likely delivered on the order of 4–8 TOPS, suitable for basic AI effects, whereas Lunar Lake jumps an order of magnitude, indicating Intel’s aggressive roadmap. Intel claims Lunar Lake’s AI engine yields a 1.4× performance advantage over Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X Elite in certain AI workloads and significantly outperforms its own prior gen io-fund.com.
  • AMD Ryzen 7040 “Phoenix” (2023) – AMD integrated its first dedicated AI co-processor, branded Ryzen AI, into select mobile CPUs (the 7040 series). This XDNA-based AI engine initially could handle about 4 TOPS of AI throughput (enough for a few concurrent AI tasks). By CES 2025, AMD unveiled the Ryzen AI 300 series (“Krackan Point”) with an updated XDNA 2 NPU delivering 50 TOPS at peak tomshardware.com tomshardware.com. Notably, AMD’s new AI 7 350 chip with 50 TOPS meets Microsoft’s full Copilot+ PC spec, whereas its previous 16 TOPS NPUs did not tomshardware.com tomshardware.com. This leap underscores how quickly AMD scaled from a baseline to parity with the best in market within ~2 years.
  • Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite (2024) – Qualcomm, leveraging its smartphone AI leadership, introduced the X Elite for Windows PCs with a Hexagon NPU rated around 45 TOPS io-fund.com. Microsoft highlighted this in 2024, noting Copilot+ class devices with “40+ TOPS” NPUs blogs.microsoft.com blogs.microsoft.com. Qualcomm has touted the X Elite’s efficiency, claiming 2.6× better performance-per-watt vs AMD and 5.4× vs Intel on AI tasks io-fund.com. By pushing ~45 TOPS in a fanless laptop chip, Qualcomm set a high bar for AI in ultrathin devices, effectively matching desktop-class NPUs of competitors.
  • Apple M3/M4 (2024–2025) – Apple’s Neural Engine continued to evolve. The M3 (expected around late 2024) reportedly increased to 18 TOPS, and the M4 (2025) doubled the Neural Engine core count, reaching 38 TOPS io-fund.com. Indeed, Apple stated the M4’s Neural Engine can perform 38 trillion operations per second, up from 18 in the M3 youtube.com. Apple’s design philosophy emphasizes efficiently executing common ML models (for imaging, Siri, etc.), and by M4 it’s catching up to the ~40-50 TOPS range seen in PC competitors. Apple’s advantage is that 100% of Macs have this Neural Engine baked in, whereas on Windows it’s split among various chip brands.
• Performance Tiers in 2025: By mid-2025, AI PC NPUs roughly segment into tiers:
  • Entry-level & last-gen: ~5–15 TOPS NPUs – e.g. older Ryzen AI 200 series chips with 16 TOPS tomshardware.com, or Intel’s Meteor Lake, or budget Snapdragon variants. These can run basic AI effects (background blur, voice dictation) but struggle with heavier models.
  • Mainstream current: ~40–50 TOPS – this is the new standard for premium laptops/desktops (Intel Lunar Lake ~48, Qualcomm ~45, AMD 50) io-fund.com io-fund.com. With these, PCs can handle more intensive workloads like real-time transcription, multiple AI apps concurrently, or moderate image generation tasks on-device.
  • High-end / discrete: 100+ TOPS – while not yet present in integrated form, this tier is emerging via GPUs. Nvidia’s RTX 40-series GPUs, for instance, can deliver hundreds of TOPS in INT8/FP16 AI throughput (far beyond NPUs, albeit with higher power draw) computerworld.com computerworld.com. So in workstations or gaming PCs, the GPU effectively acts as an “AI accelerator” enabling demanding local AI (e.g. large models or training small neural nets). Nvidia believes its GPU approach currently suffices for “AI PCs” and has not released a separate PC NPU, though it’s collaborating on Arm CPU projects io-fund.com io-fund.com.
  Going forward, we can expect these tiers to all ratchet upward. By 2027, an entry-level NPU might be 30–50 TOPS (what’s high-end today), mainstream perhaps 100+ TOPS, and high-end GPUs delivering in the thousands of TOPS. This progression will parallel the increasing complexity of AI software running locally (e.g. personal Large Language Models, advanced AR/VR applications, etc.). Already Gartner predicts “small language models” (SLMs) optimized for on-device use will proliferate, bringing efficient AI to PCs without cloud dependence computerworld.com computerworld.com – something that will certainly push hardware needs further.
• Multi-chip Strategies: Notably, chipmakers are approaching AI from different angles. Intel and AMD integrate NPUs into their CPU packages; Qualcomm and Apple use system-on-chip designs with dedicated AI blocks; Nvidia leans on powerful GPUs plus software frameworks. There’s also talk of specialized co-processors or AI accelerators that could be added to PCs (analogous to how some desktops have add-on cards for AI). Microsoft’s Surface team, for example, worked on an AI chip (codenamed “Athena”/”Cobalt”) for internal use on Azure and potentially future devices theregister.com theregister.com. If AI workloads grow massively, by 2030 we might even see socketed NPUs or modular AI units in high-end PCs.
• Power & Efficiency: TOPS alone doesn’t tell the full story – efficiency matters, especially in battery-powered laptops. Qualcomm’s claim of superior perf-per-watt underscores that their 45 TOPS might be more sustainable under load on a thin laptop than a competitor’s NPU that throttles quickly io-fund.com. All vendors are investing in smarter power management for AI. For instance, Intel’s Hybrid AI Loop (in Windows) can offload between CPU, NPU, and GPU as needed blogs.windows.com. By 2030, we expect AI accelerators to become far more power-efficient, possibly using techniques like neural network pruning, lower precisions (down to 4-bit or analog computing), and even leveraging idle GPU shader cores for AI.

In summary, the NPU TOPS race is on, and it’s reminiscent of the early CPU GHz wars or GPU FLOPS wars – but tailored to AI inference. Around 2025, ~50 TOPS is state-of-art in consumer PC NPUs. By 2030, triple-digit to low quadru-digit TOPS could be commonplace in PCs, enabling near-instant AI responses and running advanced models locally. The evolution of NPUs will be one of scale (higher throughput) and specialization (optimized for certain AI ops). Combined with improvements in GPUs and even CPUs (which are also adding AI-friendly instructions), PCs in 2030 will have a rich hierarchy of compute resources to throw at AI problems.

Industry quote: “Newer AI-specific NPUs from Intel (Meteor Lake), AMD (Ryzen AI), and Qualcomm (Snapdragon X Elite) are expected to flood the market over the next two years to meet AI PC demand.” – Computerworld, Aug 2025 computerworld.com. The flood is indeed starting, with virtually every new PC processor announced now highlighting an AI performance number alongside traditional specs.

OEM Market Share and Competition: AI PCs Remake the PC Leaderboard

The rise of AI PCs is not only a silicon story but also a competitive battle among PC manufacturers. Traditional market rankings (Lenovo, HP, Dell as the perennial top 3, followed by Apple, Acer, ASUS, etc.) are being shaken up as AI readiness becomes a selling point. Both consumer and enterprise buyers are evaluating which OEMs can best deliver on the promise of AI-enhanced computing. Here’s a look at the major players and how the AI-PC trend is influencing their market positions going into 2030:

• Lenovo: The world’s largest PC maker (by unit share) is Lenovo, with roughly 23–25% of global shipments in recent years finviz.com. Lenovo’s focus spans consumer to enterprise, and it has been quick to adopt AI features across its portfolio. In 2023–25, Lenovo launched laptops with Intel Core Ultra chips and also some Qualcomm-powered models (e.g. ThinkPad X13s on ARM) to jump on the NPU bandwagon. Executives at Lenovo are bullish: Lenovo’s PC chief noted that AI PCs “give time back to the user” by handling mundane tasks, leading to real productivity gains computerworld.com computerworld.com. Lenovo positions its AI capabilities as part of a smarter PC experience (voice assistants, adaptive performance, etc.). By 2030, Lenovo’s breadth (from high-end ThinkPads with advanced AI to affordable IdeaPads with basic AI) should help it maintain a top spot, though competition is tight. Lenovo’s large enterprise client base is likely already piloting AI PC deployments, especially in China and Asia markets where Lenovo is dominant.
• HP Inc.: Usually the #2 global PC vendor (~20% share) finviz.com, HP has been vocal about AI PCs. HP’s CEO Enrique Lores noted in late 2024 that while customers were a bit slow to refresh fleets, there is “a large and aging installed base” ripe for replacement with Windows 11 AI PCs theregister.com theregister.com. HP has introduced AI features in its Dragonfly and Spectre laptop lines (e.g. AI noise reduction in webcams) and touts AI for endpoint security (using on-device machine learning to detect threats). After an earnings call in 2025, HP even saw its stock rise on “upbeat outlook signals [of] AI PC momentum,” highlighting investor belief that HP will benefit from the AI upgrade cycle finviz.com. HP’s strength is in commercial and premium consumer PCs – segments willing to pay for new tech – which bodes well for its AI PC sales. By pushing aggressive marketing (HP has cited Gartner’s projections that 114 million AI PCs in 2025 could be reached, for instance), HP aims to ride the wave and perhaps close the gap with Lenovo.
• Dell Technologies: Dell (typically #3 globally, ~17% market share, though only ~10% in Q2 2025 during a soft consumer spell finviz.com) is extremely focused on the commercial market (it derives 80% of PC revenue from business buyers). This focus aligns with the first adopters of AI PCs. Dell claims to offer “the broadest portfolio of Copilot+ capable AI PCs” finviz.com – indeed, its Latitude, Precision, and new Dell Pro Max series are loaded with AI features. Dell integrates Intel’s and Nvidia’s latest tech (e.g. laptops with Nvidia RTX GPUs for AI, desktops with Core Ultra and AMD chips). A Dell spokesperson said Windows 11 and AI capabilities are driving a major refresh opportunity, noting 30% of the 1.5 billion PCs in use are 4+ years old and lack NPUs – a big replacement pool theregister.com. Dell is banking on Windows 10’s retirement and new AI features to spur upgrades. However, Dell’s challenge is the sluggish consumer segment (its consumer PC revenue was down 19% in early 2025) finviz.com. It’s losing some ground to Lenovo/HP in sheer volume. That said, Dell’s emphasis on solutions (like its “AI Factory” bundling hardware + AI software partnerships finviz.com) could pay off in enterprise AI deployments at scale. By 2030, expect Dell to remain a top-three player, potentially having grown share if its commercial bet on AI PCs pans out. Dell’s close partnership with Microsoft (often being early with Windows features) could give it an edge with Copilot integration.
• Apple: Though Apple is the fourth-largest PC vendor (~8–10% share by units finviz.com finviz.com), it punches above its weight in defining tech trends. Apple’s transition to M-series (ARM-based) silicon with Neural Engines in 100% of Macs (since 2020) means every Mac sold is an “AI PC.” In effect, Apple had a multi-year head start on device AI – using the Neural Engine for features like on-device dictation, image search, FaceTime video effects, and more. By Q2 2025, Apple’s Mac shipments were growing strongly (+21% YoY) even as some others stagnated, lifting its market share to 9.1% finviz.com. The new M4 chips in 2025, with double neural cores, underline Apple’s commitment to AI performance finviz.com. Apple’s strategy seems geared towards enabling creative and multimedia AI tasks on Mac (e.g. macOS now allows generating a “memory movie” from your photos via simple text prompts – an AI feature Apple rolled out in early 2025 finviz.com). The Apple ecosystem advantage is tight integration: developers can target the Neural Engine via Core ML, and many popular apps (Photoshop, Pixelmator, etc.) use it for acceleration. Looking to 2030, Apple will likely remain ~10% of unit share but a larger share of the profit share (given its premium pricing). As AI becomes a must-have, Apple’s decision to control its silicon appears prescient – it doesn’t have to wait on Intel/AMD for new AI features, it can tailor them in-house. One wildcard: if AI-driven use cases (like generative AI coding assistants) become critical in enterprise, will Apple try to make a bigger enterprise push? For now, Windows still dominates business PCs, but by 2030 perhaps Macs with strong AI might tempt more professional users.
• Microsoft (Surface): Microsoft’s Surface line is a relatively small fraction of the market (often 1–2% share), but it plays an outsize role as a trend-setter. Microsoft has used Surface to showcase features like Windows Studio Effects (which debuted on Surface Pro 9 5G with an NPU in 2022) blogs.windows.com. In 2024, Microsoft released the first Surface Copilot+ PCs (Surface Laptop Studio 2 and others with NPUs) in lockstep with its Windows AI announcements blogs.microsoft.com. Surface serves as a halo product to encourage OEMs to follow suit. With rumors Microsoft might design its own Arm chips in the future, Surface could continue to be on the bleeding edge of AI hardware – possibly offering reference designs for what an optimal Windows AI PC looks like. While Microsoft as an OEM won’t topple the big four in volume, its influence is significant in steering the Windows ecosystem’s minimum specs and features (for example, adding a dedicated Copilot key on new keyboards ghacks.net to encourage AI usage). In the enterprise segment, Surface devices are often adopted for specific use cases or by tech-forward executives, which can seed interest in AI PC capabilities.
• Other PC OEMs (Acer, ASUS, Samsung, etc.): The next tier of vendors (each with ~5-7% share) are also aligning to AI. ASUS has an “AI PCs” marketing push highlighting models with at least a 10+ TOPS NPU asus.com. Acer and Samsung participated in the Copilot+ PC launch, meaning they have models meeting Microsoft’s AI spec (e.g. Acer’s Swift X and Samsung’s Galaxy Book3 AI edition). These players often compete on value, so one interesting trend is Qualcomm aiming to “democratize” AI PCs – in 2024 Qualcomm signaled it would move Snapdragon chips into ~$700 and below laptops to capture mainstream price points io-fund.com. If successful, that means Acer/ASUS could sell mid-range AI laptops in emerging markets sooner, boosting their unit shares. Meanwhile, premium gaming PC brands like Razer or MSI are leveraging AI mostly via Nvidia GPUs – expect gaming notebooks to tout AI for enhanced graphics (DLSS, broadcasting, etc.) more than NPUs. By 2030, the pecking order among these secondary players will depend partly on who executes AI features best without bloating cost.
• Enterprise PC specialists: In the commercial world, players like Dell, HP, Lenovo will likely retain the bulk of corporate contracts, but we may see shifts in which of their models are popular. For example, if Dell’s Latitude AI edition (hypothetical) significantly improves employee productivity with local Copilot, an IT department might standardize on that and refresh sooner. There’s also the factor of vertical integration – Apple is vertically integrated (hardware-software-AI), Microsoft is integrating software and cloud services with PC hardware requirements, and even Google has flirted with AI on ChromeOS. One might wonder if by 2030 Google enters the fray with an AI-centric Chromebook (there have been reports of NPUs in upcoming Chromebook chips). Such moves could slightly alter market share if, say, Chromebooks with AI eat into the low end of Windows PC sales in education, etc.

In summary, the AI PC boom is a rising tide that all OEMs are trying to catch, but not everyone will benefit equally. The trend tends to favor:

• Premium-focused OEMs (who can charge for new tech) – e.g. Apple, and to an extent Dell/HP’s high-end lines – initially get revenue boosts.
• Innovation leaders – OEMs who quickly implement meaningful AI features (better battery life with AI, unique apps, etc.) could grab market share from laggards.
• ARM-based entrants – The dominance of x86 is being challenged; by 2028–2030 we might see Qualcomm-powered notebooks taking some share, especially if Windows on ARM matures. Canalys data from Q2 2025 showed Arm-based notebooks were ~11% share (mostly Apple) io-fund.com; this could grow if more vendors join the ARM party post-2024 (given Qualcomm’s exclusivity deal with Microsoft ended in 2024, opening doors for others io-fund.com io-fund.com). Nvidia+MediaTek’s rumored CPU in 2025 is one to watch in this regard io-fund.com.

For now, Lenovo, HP, and Dell remain the shipment leaders, with Apple’s share rising gradually. By 2030, it’s conceivable Lenovo and HP still lead in volume, but Apple might approach closer to Dell’s level if Mac adoption increases via AI differentiation. One could imagine a 2030 share scenario: Lenovo ~25%, HP ~22%, Dell ~15%, Apple ~12–15%, others splitting the rest – but this is speculative. What’s certain is all players recognize AI PCs as the growth engine. Even traditionally staid PC makers are hyping AI. As Gartner’s Ranjit Atwal observed, PC vendors are “pushing AI PCs with a premium” but customers are cautious; he expects “something will have to give in 2025, and I think it’s pricing” as volume increases theregister.com. This suggests that by 2025–26, any OEM not able to offer affordable AI models could lose out.

Ultimately, AI features could become as standard as having a webcam – an OEM that didn’t include a webcam in 2010 would be unthinkable; by 2030 an OEM without AI acceleration will be similarly uncompetitive. The battleground will shift to whose AI user experience is best (not just raw hardware). That puts companies like Microsoft (with Windows Copilot) and Apple (with macOS AI functions) in powerful positions to influence PC purchasing in favor of their hardware partners or own products.

Windows Copilot+, Apple Silicon & the ARM Revolution: Platform Influence on AI PC Adoption

The hardware trends do not exist in a vacuum – the software and platform ecosystems around PCs are equally driving (and driven by) the AI PC transition. Two key forces stand out: Microsoft’s Windows + Copilot initiative on one side, and Apple’s silicon & AI integration on the other. Along with the broader shift toward ARM-based chips, these factors are profoundly shaping what AI PCs can do and how appealing they are to users.

Windows 11 and Copilot+: Microsoft has made AI a pillar of the Windows platform strategy. In mid-2023, Microsoft announced Windows Copilot for Windows 11, heralding it as “the first PC platform to provide centralized AI assistance” built into the OS blogs.windows.com blogs.windows.com. This isn’t just Clippy 2.0 – Copilot is essentially an AI sidebar (powered by Bing Chat / GPT-4) that’s always available to summarize content, draft emails, adjust settings via natural language, and more. It represents a vision where every Windows user has a personal AI helper at their fingertips.

To fully realize this vision, Microsoft introduced the “Copilot+ PCs” program in 2024, working with top OEMs (Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, and its own Surface) blogs.microsoft.com. Copilot+ branding denotes Windows 11 PCs that have a high-performance NPU and meet certain specs (including, interestingly, a dedicated Copilot key on the keyboard for instant access ghacks.net). These PCs can run Windows AI features much faster and offline compared to standard PCs. For example:

• Windows Studio Effects (background blur, voice focus, eye contact correction in video calls) are accelerated by NPUs on Copilot+ devices, reducing CPU load and enabling use even without internet computerworld.com computerworld.com.
• The upcoming Windows 11 24H2 update (Fall 2024) includes an AI “Explorer” that can index your activities and answer questions about what you’ve been doing (kind of a personal timeline AI) ghacks.net. This potentially uses local AI to transcribe and summarize your work, raising both productivity possibilities and privacy questions.
• Third-party apps: Microsoft partnered with Adobe, Blackmagic, Zoom, and others so that their apps detect and leverage NPUs on Windows. E.g. Adobe Photoshop can run certain generative fill operations locally using the NPU when available blogs.microsoft.com blogs.microsoft.com; DaVinci Resolve uses NPUs to accelerate video Magic Mask blogs.microsoft.com; video conferencing apps like Teams and CapCut offload background removal to NPUs blogs.microsoft.com.

The influence of Windows Copilot+ is significant because Windows still powers ~70–75% of new PCs (the rest being macOS and a sliver of ChromeOS). By deeply integrating AI into the OS and offering better experience on NPU-equipped hardware, Microsoft is effectively creating a strong incentive to buy AI PCs. Businesses planning their Windows 10 to 11 migration are being enticed by features like Microsoft 365 Copilot (AI in Office apps) which will work best on AI PCs. Microsoft even stated that Windows 11’s AI features will keep expanding “with new silicon support from AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and Qualcomm” as part of a Hybrid AI loop strategy blogs.windows.com. This means future Windows versions will intelligently distribute AI workloads between cloud and local silicon.

In practical terms, Windows’ influence has led to:

• Every major x86 vendor putting AI accelerators on their roadmap (they don’t want to be left out of “Windows certified” lists).
• OEMs designing laptops with things like AI-specific function keys, better webcams and mics to capitalize on AI features (for example, some 2025 Dell models introduced an “AI collaboration touchpad” with shortcuts for video calls dell.com dell.com).
• The emergence of a new SKU category in stores: laptops advertised as “AI PC” or “Copilot ready.” Microsoft’s own web store now lets you “Shop Copilot+ PCs” as a separate category microsoft.com, highlighting NPU-enabled models for consumers.

Looking ahead, Windows “12” (unofficial name), expected around late 2025, is rumored to double down on AI. We might see requirements where certain advanced features only light up if an NPU is present. Microsoft’s strategy could essentially force the PC ecosystem to include NPUs widely by making AI a core part of the user experience (similar to how touchscreens became standard for a time due to Windows 8, or TPM modules due to Windows 11’s security requirements).

Apple’s M-series and AI at the Edge: On the other side, Apple has seamlessly integrated AI capabilities into its devices through its custom M-series (and A-series) chips. While Apple doesn’t market “AI PCs” per se, it heavily markets the features enabled by its Neural Engine:

• FaceTime’s portrait mode and isolation of voice (Noise Reduction) are Neural Engine tasks.
• On-device Siri dictation and text-to-speech leverage the Neural Engine for speed and privacy.
• The latest macOS (e.g. macOS 14 Sonoma and the upcoming versions) include features like Live Voicemail transcriptions and image cut-out that use on-device ML.
• Pro apps (Final Cut, Logic) use AI for tasks like audio classification, background removal in video, etc., tapping into that Neural Engine.

Apple’s silicon roadmap suggests it will continue scaling AI performance. The M3 and M4 chips increasing TOPS and doubling neural cores is one indicator finviz.com io-fund.com. There are also reports Apple is working on more powerful AI-specific software: e.g. an internal project (“Ajax”) for large language models, which could result in more on-device AI capabilities (perhaps a next-gen Siri that does more locally). By controlling both the hardware and OS, Apple can optimize these experiences very well – for instance, it could ensure an LLM is compressed to run efficiently on a Mac’s Neural Engine plus GPU.

Apple’s influence on the broader market is seen in how rivals respond:

• After Apple proved ARM-based chips could outperform x86 in laptops (with great battery life too), Qualcomm acquired Nuvia (a startup of ex-Apple chip designers) to build competitive ARM PC chips. The result is the Snapdragon X series that’s now pushing NPUs in Windows.
• Microsoft and partners are actively optimizing software for ARM + AI, because Apple showed the performance potential. E.g. Adobe’s native Apple Silicon apps with AI features likely spurred Adobe to ensure those same features work on Windows ARM NPUs.
• Apple’s success with vertical integration might inspire others – could we see, say, Google make a Tensor chip for Chromebooks with an NPU? (Just as they did for Pixel phones.) It’s speculative, but the trend toward custom silicon is partly thanks to Apple’s showcase.

It’s also worth noting Apple’s ecosystem gives it an “attach rate” advantage for features. NielsenIQ observed Apple’s device ecosystem has “an attach rate significantly higher and broader than any other mobility OEM”, meaning Apple users adopt new tech faster across devices media.zones.com. If Apple rolls out a new AI-powered app or service, a large portion of its Mac installed base can use it immediately since their hardware is uniform. This contrasts with Windows, where hardware heterogeneity means not everyone has an NPU yet. For example, a new on-device AI feature in macOS can assume a Neural Engine is present on all Macs from 2020 onward. Microsoft doesn’t yet have that luxury across all Windows PCs until penetration increases.

ARM-based PC Hardware – beyond Apple: The influence of ARM architecture in PCs, strongly linked to AI capabilities, is a big story of this period. ARM chips (like Apple’s, Qualcomm’s, potentially MediaTek/Nvidia’s) typically integrate NPUs by default (since that’s common in mobile SoCs). x86 chips are adding them now to keep up. By 2030, it’s quite possible the x86 vs ARM balance in PCs will shift significantly:

• In 2023, ARM-based PCs (mostly Macs) took just ~10% of the notebook market and ~6% of desktops io-fund.com. But Gartner predicts Arm-based laptops will gain ground, especially in consumer markets as app compatibility hurdles fall computerworld.com. In 2025 Gartner saw Arm laptops perhaps taking ~24% of AI consumer laptops, with Windows x86 still dominant in enterprise computerworld.com.
• Qualcomm’s partnership with Microsoft (and its exclusivity on Windows on ARM, which ended in 2024) suggests a pipeline of new ARM PC offerings. If Qualcomm’s chips (with superior AI perf per watt) succeed in premium laptops in 2025–26, we could see Microsoft, Dell, HP etc. selling more ARM-based models, eroding Intel/AMD share.
• Nvidia+MediaTek: A significant rumor confirmed by multiple reports is Nvidia working with MediaTek on an ARM SoC for PCs, aiming for release by 2025 io-fund.com. Nvidia would bring its GPU (and AI software like CUDA) to the table, MediaTek its ARM CPU expertise. Such a chip could be a game-changer: imagine a laptop with an Nvidia AI accelerator integrated, targeting AI developers or creators. If this materializes, by late decade Nvidia might become a notable player in client CPUs, furthering ARM’s incursion.
• Windows on ARM improvements: Microsoft is actively improving emulation and native app support for ARM Windows. Windows 11 even has an ARM Dev Kit and tools for developers to optimize apps (including AI inferencing via ONNX runtime, etc.). By 2030, we may see Windows platform being truly agnostic – x86 or ARM, as long as there’s an NPU, the AI features work. The competition will then be about efficiency and integration. ARM’s low-power advantage could mean longer battery life for AI tasks, which users will notice if, say, voice transcription on one laptop drains 10% battery vs 5% on an ARM laptop.

All told, the influence of platforms can be summarized:

• Microsoft is catalyzing the AI PC hardware rollout by demanding more of PCs (for AI features) and offering a richer experience on those that comply. Windows will increasingly expect an NPU the same way it expects a GPU or a certain amount of RAM.
• Apple sets a high bar for seamless AI integration and is likely to continue extending device-side AI capabilities, indirectly pressuring the Windows ecosystem to keep up or innovate (e.g. if Apple enables full offline Siri that’s super smart, Microsoft will want Cortana/Copilot to do that too on Windows).
• The ARM architecture, benefiting from being designed in the modern era of AI and mobile, is becoming a formidable foundation for PCs, especially as software compatibility issues are solved. x86 isn’t going away, but by 2030 we could see a much more balanced split, particularly in laptops. This could also mean more cross-pollination: AI techniques developed for mobile (like efficient model architectures) find their way into PC usage because the hardware converges.

In essence, the AI PC revolution is blurring the line between what traditionally separated PC, mobile, and cloud. Windows devices act a bit more like smart devices with their own AI; Macs leverage mobile chip tech for desktop power; and all are tethered to cloud AI when needed but increasingly capable alone. As Satya Nadella (Microsoft’s CEO) has said, we’re moving into an era of “edge AI” where computing at the edge (PCs, phones) complements the cloud. PCs are a huge part of that edge, and with support from platform giants, they’re being reimagined as intelligent companions rather than static tools.

Pricing Trends and ASPs: How AI is Affecting PC Prices

The introduction of AI capabilities in PCs has had an immediate impact on pricing, with manufacturers initially charging a premium for the new functionality. Over 2025–2030, we expect the average selling prices (ASPs) of PCs to follow a trajectory influenced by early adopter premiums, economies of scale, and competitive pressures:

• Premium Pricing Phase (2023–2025): Early AI PCs are mostly high-end models, and they come at a notable premium. Some estimates put the average cost of an AI PC ~5–15% higher than a comparable non-AI model in 2024 theregister.com. NielsenIQ’s distribution data shows AI-PCs in 2024 were concentrated in the €1,000+ price segment (premium) – in fact, that segment made up 77% of AI-PC channel sales nielseniq.com. And about one-third of AI PCs sold through distributors in 2024 cost over €2,000 nielseniq.com, indicating a large portion were workstation-class or ultra-premium laptops. This isn’t surprising: the first wave of AI PCs (e.g. Dell Latitude 9440, HP Dragonfly Pro, etc.) had cutting-edge chips and were often fully loaded with RAM, SSD, nice screens – so they were flagship products by spec, not just because of AI. OEMs understandably targeted early adopters and enterprise buyers with deeper pockets.
• Buyer Pushback on Price: Many enterprise customers in 2024 expressed hesitancy to pay a big premium without clear ROI. Gartner’s Atwal noted “Businesses want to move to AI PCs but not pay a premium as there are no compelling business cases [yet]” theregister.com theregister.com. This sentiment has put pressure on vendors to justify the cost. Some large buyers delayed purchases, hoping prices will fall or more use-cases emerge by 2025. This dynamic – enthusiasm curbed by budget reality – suggests that the initial premium was not fully sustainable. Indeed, by late 2024, Dell and HP both acknowledged refresh cycles were slower than expected partially due to these higher costs theregister.com. The expectation is that “something will have to give in 2025” in pricing, as Atwal said theregister.com, or else adoption might stall.
• Mid-term Adjustments (2025–2027): As we move into 2025 and beyond, a few factors will help normalize prices:
  • Competition and More Suppliers: With Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and potentially Nvidia/MediaTek all offering AI-capable chips by 2025–26, OEMs have multiple options to source from. This competition tends to drive down component costs. If Qualcomm, for instance, aggressively prices its Snapdragon PC chips to gain share, that could force Intel/AMD to offer better value or subsidize AI features in mid-range CPUs.
  • Scaling and Cost Reduction: The NPU is just silicon – and like any silicon, as volumes increase and manufacturing moves to newer nodes, the cost per transistor drops. By 2026–27, second and third-gen NPUs will be cheaper to produce and possibly integrated across entire CPU lineups (not just highest-end). Already, AMD’s strategy in 2025 was to introduce a range of Ryzen AI chips, including mid-tier ones, which means AI PCs in the ~$800 range, not only $1500+.
  • Bundling with OS/Services: Microsoft and others might effectively subsidize AI features. For example, Microsoft pricing of Windows licenses or its Microsoft 365 Copilot subscription could bundle discounts for AI PC deployments at scale. This isn’t a direct hardware ASP effect, but it lowers total cost of ownership for the buyer, making a pricier device more palatable.
  • Tariffs and macro factors: There was mention that tariffs (US-China) and economic softness slightly delayed adoption idc.com. If those stabilize, PC makers may have less external cost pressure, giving them room to adjust AI PC prices downward and still maintain margin.
  By the late 2020s, we anticipate that an “AI PC” won’t necessarily cost more than any other PC – because essentially all PCs will be AI PCs. When every mid-range laptop includes an NPU by default, the cost will be baked into the standard bill-of-materials, much like integrated GPUs are today.
• ASP Trend Examples: The overall PC ASP has actually been elevated in recent years due to pandemic buying of better equipment. In 2023 the global notebook ASP was around $820 (per IDC). Early AI PCs were often $1000+, so they pulled the mix higher. But as sub-$800 AI notebooks appear, the mix might not rise further; instead, we’ll see a bifurcation: basic AI capability becomes standard even in $500 PCs by 2028, but there will always be premium models leveraging superior AI (like say a $2000 mobile workstation with a beefy NPU or dual NPUs). The premium for entry-level AI should largely vanish by 2030. It’s akin to how in the mid-2010s, touchscreen laptops were a premium, but eventually even budget 2-in-1s had touch – you only paid extra for the best touchscreens.

NielsenIQ’s analysis suggests prices have not yet stabilized by 2024, with expectations of “price erosion over time” as competition kicks in nielseniq.com. Already by late 2025, we might see promotional pricing on AI PCs during holiday seasons to drive volume. There’s evidence of this: Microsoft proudly noted that Copilot+ devices would start at $999, “up to $200 less than similar spec’d devices” without AI blogs.microsoft.com. This implies Microsoft encouraged OEMs to price AI models lower than one would assume to spur adoption. Microsoft basically seed-funded some of the price difference (possibly via marketing agreements).

Looking to enterprise contracts in 2025–2026, PC vendors will likely offer AI PC models at only a modest uplift over standard models to win those deals. By 2026, when half of new sales are AI PCs, the ASP difference should be minimal – it becomes a cost of doing business.

Bottom line: PC ASPs saw a spike as AI models rolled out, but intense competition and the necessity of broad adoption are driving the premium down. As one Register headline quipped, “AI PCs: ‘Something will have to give… and I think it’s pricing’” theregister.com. This “give” is already underway, ensuring AI PC volumes can scale. So while in 2024 an AI PC might have been notably more expensive, by 2028 an entry-level PC will just naturally include AI with no fanfare or surcharge.

For consumers, this means if you waited a bit, you’ll get AI features in a device without paying top dollar. For vendors, it means initially higher margins on AI flagships will normalize, but they hope the overall market size and upgrade rate increases to compensate (more frequent refresh because the AI features genuinely drive demand). If AI features prove truly useful, people might be willing to pay somewhat more for premium experiences (e.g. a laptop that can run a personal GPT-5 chatbot offline might command extra). But broadly, expect ASPs to settle back to the long-term trend, with AI just part of the spec sheet.

AI Feature Attach Rates and Use Cases: From Nice-to-Have to Must-Have

“Attach rate” in this context refers to how widely and frequently certain AI features are being used or are included with PCs. Early in the cycle, many AI features are niche or underutilized, but this is poised to change dramatically as the tech matures and awareness grows:

• Video Conferencing & Collaboration: One of the first killer apps for on-device AI has been improving virtual meetings. By 2025, virtually all new business laptops from major OEMs advertise AI-enhanced conferencing: webcam auto-framing, background blur, virtual eye contact, noise cancellation. These features existed in software before, but NPUs make them far more effective and energy-efficient. For instance, Dell’s latest commercial laptops tout an 8MP AI webcam and “temporal noise reduction” via NPU for crystal-clear video calls dell.com. Microsoft Teams, Zoom, Webex, etc. have integrated these capabilities so deeply that end-users sometimes don’t even realize AI is at work – it “just works.” Dell published that with AI PCs, “collaboration just works better” due to these enhancements and even created a dedicated Collaboration Touchpad for meeting controls on some models dell.com. By 2028, we expect nearly a 100% attach rate of basic AI conferencing features in any device with a camera – it will be strange to have a call without background noise suppression or auto-centering, just as today it’s strange if a laptop lacked a webcam entirely. A related feature is real-time translation and transcription. Windows 11’s new Live Captions can even translate on the fly in 40+ languages using the NPU blogs.microsoft.com blogs.microsoft.com. This breaks language barriers in global companies and is likely to be heavily used (imagine joining a meeting with colleagues across continents and getting subtitles in your language – game-changing for collaboration).
• Local Generative AI & Creativity: As evidenced by Microsoft’s integration of DALL-E into Paint (the new Cocreator) and Adobe’s moves, creative AI is coming to the PC locally. Already, 10 billion images were generated by cloud Image Creator as of 2024 blogs.microsoft.com. Now, features like Paint Cocreator or Adobe’s Firefly can leverage NPUs to generate images in near real-time on your desktop blogs.microsoft.com blogs.microsoft.com. This means designers, marketers, or just hobbyists can use generative AI without waiting on cloud queues. We might see an “attach rate” here measured in how many creative professionals adopt AI in their workflow. Early signs: Adobe reported huge interest in Firefly; having it run faster on AI PCs will only increase usage. Similarly, code generation tools (Github Copilot, etc.) might run some local models for faster response. By 2030, a significant share of developers may routinely use on-device AI to autocomplete code or analyze logs.
• Productivity and Personal Assistants: Microsoft 365 Copilot, essentially an AI assistant in Office, is currently cloud-based but will offload tasks to local hardware when possible (for speed and privacy). Features like summarizing a Word document or drafting an email via Outlook’s AI are likely to see high attach rates, especially in enterprise. A survey by Forrester in 2025 found 50% of US online adults didn’t understand why they’d need an AI PC yet, and 61% felt they “don’t use AI enough” to justify it computerworld.com. This highlights that awareness is still catching up. However, the same survey noted 55% liked that AI PCs keep data local computerworld.com – a privacy angle. As employees start experiencing Copilot summarizing a meeting transcript or sorting their inbox autonomously, they might quickly become reliant on it. This can flip those perceptions: by late decade, people might say “I can’t imagine using a PC that doesn’t have AI to handle routine tasks.” The attach rate of personal AI usage (like asking your PC to draft a document or find info among your files via natural language) could go from near-zero in 2023 to a daily occurrence for the majority of office workers by 2030.
• Security and System Optimization: Many AI PCs come with built-in AI for security – e.g., real-time malware detection using ML models on the NPU, or adaptive energy optimization. Intel has talked about using AI to intelligently manage performance and battery life (by predicting what you’ll do next). Those features are largely invisible to users (so “attach rate” = effectively 100% of AI PCs if enabled by default). On security, 2025-era AI PCs can do things like face logins, presence detection (lock when you step away, using AI vision) – features enterprise likes. We expect by 2030, the majority of business PCs will have some form of “zero trust” AI monitoring running locally (e.g. unusual process behavior detection using an AI model, to catch threats offline).
• User Awareness and Education: One current barrier to feature attachment is simply that users don’t know what they have. The NielsenIQ report showed only ~22% of German consumers were aware of AI-PCs in 2024 nielseniq.com. As marketing around AI PCs ramps up and as people see colleagues using them, awareness will jump. Manufacturers and retailers will likely do in-store demos: e.g. showing how an AI PC can blur background and translate speech live. These concrete demos will help justify the feature. By 2025 holiday season, expect retail tags highlighting “NPU inside – for AI features like noise cancelation and avatar emojis” even in mid-tier models. Over the latter half of the decade, the concept of an “AI PC” may fade as it just becomes “PC”, but the features will be standard talking points in any PC review.
• Quantifying Attach Rates: If we define attach rate as the percentage of PCs in use that have AI capabilities turned on or available, IDC’s projection was from 5% in 2023 to 94% by 2028 computerworld.com – essentially near-total. If we define it as how many users actively use an AI feature regularly, that remains to be seen, but could follow a similar explosive path once utility is proven. Think about webcams: pre-pandemic only a fraction used them often; by 2021 almost everyone did. AI could follow such a pattern given a catalyzing event or simply gradual integration.

Some concrete examples of adoption:

• Microsoft said that already tens of millions of Windows users tried the new AI features within weeks of release (e.g. the Dev Home and Copilot preview).
• TrueConf, a video conferencing provider, noted AI features like noise cancelation and auto transcriptions are becoming expected in enterprise meetings trueconf.com.
• On the creative side, when Adobe added AI generative fill, it executed over 300 million generations in a few months (mostly cloud) – when those can be done locally, we expect similar huge numbers.

In a nutshell, AI features are transitioning from gimmicky demos to everyday tools. By 2030, the notion of not having AI assistances on a PC will sound as outdated as not having internet access. People will have grown accustomed to their computer automatically handling many subtasks. The PC itself becomes more of an active participant in your work – anticipating needs, offering insights – rather than a passive machine waiting for input. The qualitative shift is that the PC feels like it has a “brain” of its own.

Major Announcements and Product Launches: Timeline of the AI PC Era

The period from 2024 through 2028 is rich with milestone announcements, as companies unveil hardware, software, and initiatives that collectively propel the AI PC market. Below is a timeline of some key events and product launches influencing the trajectory:

• 2023:
  • May 2023: Windows Copilot introduced at Microsoft Build 2023 blogs.windows.com. Panos Panay announces built-in AI assistant coming to Windows 11, kicking off public awareness of AI in mainstream PCs.
  • Fall 2023: Intel “Meteor Lake” Core 14th Gen launch. First PC chips with integrated NPU (VPU) from Intel. Soon after, devices like the Lenovo Yoga Book 9i and HP Spectre Fold (both showcased at CES 2024) feature Meteor Lake with AI features.
  • Late 2023: Nvidia RTX 40-series GPUs become widely available in laptops/desktops, enabling a wave of AI content creation and gaming features (DLSS 3, RTX Broadcast) – an important complementary trend to NPUs.
• 2024:
  • January 2024 (CES): Multiple OEMs announce “AI-powered” PC models. E.g. Lenovo shows laptops with Smart View (AI-driven multiple camera angles) and Dell previews Latitudes with new Intel NPUs. AMD teases its upcoming “Ryzen AI” capabilities in laptops.
  • April 2024: Canalys prediction grabs headlines: “Every PC sold will be an AI PC by 2030” ghacks.net – signaling strong industry consensus.
  • June 2024: Windows Copilot+ PCs Launch (Windows 11 update) blogs.microsoft.com. Microsoft, alongside OEM partners, releases the first batch of Copilot+ certified PCs on June 18. Surface Laptop Studio 2, Surface Pro 9 (5G) refreshed, plus new Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo models – all with NPUs and a dedicated Copilot key. Simultaneously, Windows 11’s big update goes live with Copilot preview, new AI-powered Paint, Photos, and Clipchamp apps.
  • Summer 2024: Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite (and Snapdragon “X” series for PCs) officially detailed. Promises 2× CPU perf of competitors and 45 TOPS AI engine. Hype builds for ARM laptops in holiday 2024.
  • October 2024: Intel “Core Ultra” processors (Meteor Lake) ship in retail devices, e.g. a new HP Spectre x360 with AI features. Microsoft releases Windows 11 23H2 with more AI integrations (e.g. the Windows AI “Explorer” journaling feature).
  • Nov 2024: Apple M3 (if released) – Hypothetically, Apple’s M3 chip launch in new MacBook Pros could happen here (some rumors place it late ’24). If so, it likely brings improved Neural Engine (e.g. 18 TOPS) and possibly features like on-device dictation in more languages.
• 2025:
  • Jan 2025 (CES): AMD unveils Ryzen AI 300 & 200 series for laptops tomshardware.com tomshardware.com. The Ryzen AI 7 350 (Zen 5 + XDNA 2 NPU 50 TOPS) is announced, along with mainstream Ryzen 5 models at 50 TOPS. AMD also teases “Strix Halo” for high-end notebooks, a beefy chip blending CPU/GPU/AI. These announcements show AMD’s full entry into AI PCs, challenging Intel and Qualcomm.
  • Jan 2025: Intel announces “Lunar Lake” details at CES. Confirms 48 TOPS NPU and demoes it beating Snapdragon in Stable Diffusion image gen speed io-fund.com. Also previews a 2025 desktop chip with AI (maybe Arrow Lake with some AI boost).
  • Mar 2025: Apple M4 and new Macs. Apple launches M4-based Macs (as per trends, Apple did M2 in 2022, M3 likely 2024, so M4 by early 2025 fits a roughly 1.5-year cadence). The Mac Studio and MacBook line get M4/M4 Pro chips, with Apple highlighting doubled Neural Engine cores (38 TOPS) and Thunderbolt 5 for faster data – explicitly mentioning how Neural Engine acceleration makes certain macOS features instantaneous finviz.com.
  • Mid 2025: Microsoft Office 365 Copilot officially launches (it was in beta). Businesses start rolling it out, which indirectly drives interest in upgrading PCs for best performance (since on old PCs it falls back more on cloud and is slower).
  • Late 2025: Windows 12 (tentative) – Microsoft is expected to release the next major Windows version or update (some rumors say Windows “12”). It likely requires more modern hardware. Perhaps a good guess: it might mandate an NPU for certain editions or at least strongly recommend it. Windows 12 showcase (if at Ignite 2025) will demo even tighter AI integration – possibly offline voice assistants, AI-generated backgrounds/themes, etc. This could be a pivotal moment where all new OEM models from this point include NPUs, no exceptions, to carry “Windows 12 Ready” labels.
  • Late 2025: Nvidia & MediaTek reveal joint AI PC chip (if development stays on track). This could be announced at an event like Computex or a special Nvidia event. It would mark the first entrant of a new CPU player in PCs in a long time, and likely aim at 2026 products.
• 2026:
  • Early 2026: By now, second-gen Snapdragon PC chips (the successor to X Elite) arrive, possibly on a 3nm process, pushing NPU beyond 50 TOPS and adding support for features like hardware-accelerated large language model inferencing. We also see Intel 16th-gen Core (perhaps Arrow Lake for desktop, Panther Lake for mobile?) with improved NPUs.
  • 2026 events: Many “AI PC” announcements might give way to just normal PC announcements (since AI is expected). But we could see, for example, Computex 2026 heavily themed around AI PCs in both consumer and commercial contexts.
  • Industry:* At this stage analysts report >50% of shipments are AI PCs computerworld.com; the term “AI PC” might start to be less used in marketing as it’s no longer novel – instead specific AI capabilities (like “runs Copilot blazing fast” or “ideal for local AI dev”) are highlighted.
• 2027–2028:
  • We might not pinpoint specific product launches (too far out and hypothetical), but trends could include:
    • Unified memory for AI – new PC architectures that allow CPU, GPU, NPU to share memory seamlessly to handle giant models.
    • AI-focused peripherals – e.g. smart cameras for PCs, or headsets that do AI noise cancelation themselves, etc., adding to attach rates.
    • Software breakthroughs – possibly an open-source local GPT-4-class model emerges by 2027 that can run on a high-end PC with 128GB RAM and a strong NPU/GPU. If that happens, it could cause a spike in demand for “AI enthusiast” PCs (much like gaming PC demand spikes with new game tech).
    • Regulation and standards – by late decade, regulators might set privacy standards for on-device AI (ensuring data doesn’t leave device without consent) which again would favor robust on-device hardware. Companies might advertise compliance (“All your data stays on your AI PC”).
• 2029–2030:
  • It’s quite possible that by 2030, there’s nothing called an “AI PC” launch – it’s simply PC launch. But we may see entirely new form factors leveraging AI. Perhaps PC makers release AI companion devices (think along the lines of holographic assistants or dockable neural units) that work with your PC. Or fully autonomous PCs that can perform tasks for you unsupervised (e.g. an AI scheduling assistant that lives on your PC and negotiates your meetings).
  • In 2030, an interesting product could be something like “Microsoft Surface AI” – a concept device that is essentially built around an AI personality or agent. Or Apple’s equivalent – maybe a Mac that’s primarily sold as an “AI development machine” with ultra-high-end neural processing for machine learning engineers.

Each of these milestones contributes to making AI on PCs more capable, accessible, and integrated. Summing up a few of the biggest impacts:

• Microsoft’s Copilot push (2023–24) set the stage and rallied the OEM troops.
• Chipmakers’ 2024–25 launches (Intel/AMD/Qualcomm) provided the necessary hardware in volume.
• By mid-decade, virtually all new model announcements from OEMs include a mention of AI. For example, a hypothetical “Dell Latitude 2026” press release might read: “features Dell AI-enhanced experience 3.0 with on-board NPU for instant logins, voice intelligence, and predictive performance tuning.” It won’t be a separate AI model, it’ll be every model.

Finally, it’s worth noting the PR and marketing angle in these years: we see colorful quotes like “AI PC is as significant as the launch of Windows 95” io-fund.com from Qualcomm’s CEO, or AMD calling AI the biggest PC inflection in a decade io-fund.com. These pronouncements themselves were part of announcements (said during product launches or events), and they underscore how seriously the industry is treating this transition. It’s not hype for hype’s sake – there is genuine conviction that AI capabilities will reinvent personal computing.

In conclusion, the timeline of 2025–2030 in the PC industry will be remembered as the era when PCs gained something akin to “intelligence.” Just as the late 90s were about the internet, and the 2010s about mobility, the late 2020s are about bringing AI to every user’s desktop and lap. From shipments and hardware specs to software experiences and vendor strategies, our analysis shows a coherent picture: AI is moving to the center of the PC world. The market report clearly indicates robust growth in AI PC shipments, rapid advancements in NPU performance, competitive realignment among OEMs (with those embracing AI thriving), evolving pricing strategies as the technology commoditizes, and a blossoming of use-cases that make the modern PC a far more capable and personalized device than its predecessors.

Sources:

• Gartner Research & Computerworld (2025). AI PCs surge, claiming over half the market by 2026 – Stats on AI PC shipment forecasts and enterprise vs. consumer adoption computerworld.com io-fund.com.
• IDC & I/O Fund (2024–25). Analysis of PC shipment data and AI PC projections (2024: ~50M units; 2025: ~106M; 2028: >200M) io-fund.com io-fund.com. Commentary on commercial demand leading the cycle io-fund.com.
• The Register (Nov 2024). Premium-priced AI PCs? Businesses aren’t buying – yet – Notes 5–15% price premium for AI PCs and Gartner/IDC 2024 unit estimates theregister.com. Highlights buyer reluctance on ROI theregister.com.
• Microsoft Official Blog (May 2024). Introducing Copilot+ PCs – Details on Windows Copilot+ PC program, NPU specs (40+ TOPS), OEM partnerships, starting prices blogs.microsoft.com blogs.microsoft.com.
• Tom’s Hardware (Jan 2025). Coverage of AMD Ryzen AI launch – 50 TOPS NPU in new chips, Copilot+ compliance, benchmarks vs Intel/Qualcomm tomshardware.com tomshardware.com.
• Computerworld (Aug 2025). Insights from Lenovo and Gartner – AI PC benefits (“productivity, personalized experience”) computerworld.com computerworld.com; small language models on PC computerworld.com; Windows 11 AI integration (Copilot, etc.) computerworld.com.
• gHacks Tech News (Apr 2024). Canalys: every PC sold will be an AI PC by 2030 – Adoption timeline: 19% in 2024 to 100% by 2030 ghacks.net ghacks.net.
• Finviz News (Aug 2025). Dell vs Apple: PC Maker Stock – IDC Q2 2025 vendor market shares (Lenovo 24.8%, HP 20.7%, Dell 9.8%, Apple 9.1%) finviz.com finviz.com; Apple M4 chip highlights (double Neural Engine cores) finviz.com; Dell’s AI PC portfolio breadth finviz.com.
• I/O Fund – AI PCs Have Arrived (Oct 2024). Detailed industry commentary: Intel expects 80% AI PCs by 2028 io-fund.com; Lisa Su quotes on AI PC cycle io-fund.com; Qualcomm CEO quote io-fund.com; competition on NPU TOPS (Intel 48, AMD 50, Qualcomm 45, Apple 38) io-fund.com io-fund.com; Intel shipping targets (40M in 2024, 100M cumulative by 2025) io-fund.com.
• NielsenIQ (Aug 2025). AI-PC era has just begun – Sell-through data on pricing (77% of AI-PCs >€1000, 33% >€2000) nielseniq.com nielseniq.com; low consumer awareness 22% in 2024 nielseniq.com; need for education to drive adoption.
• Dell Technologies Blog (Aug 2025). Collaboration Just Works Better with AI PCs – Describes real-world AI collaboration features (AI-enhanced camera, sound, translation, personalized settings) dell.com dell.com, underscoring practical use-cases in business.
• Forrester via Computerworld (Feb 2025 survey). Consumer attitudes – privacy preference for local AI (55%), but confusion about usefulness (50% don’t see need) computerworld.com, indicating marketing needs and future potential as awareness grows.
• Gartner via Computerworld (Aug 2025). Gartner’s Ranjit Atwal commentary – Tariffs and uncertainty slowed early 2025, but AI PCs “inevitable” and users will invest to be ready for edge AI computerworld.com. Also Gartner’s note that large businesses will have AI PCs by end of 2025, though they are only 12% of market, so consumer uptake is key beyond computerworld.com.

These sources collectively inform the comprehensive outlook above, painting a data-backed picture of the AI PC market’s growth, technological evolution, competitive dynamics, and user adoption from now through 2030. computerworld.com ghacks.net