Global Manufacturing PMIs, ISM Data and ADP Jobs Shock: What December 3, 2025 Means for Markets

The first week of December 2025 is turning into a macro-data marathon. Monday’s wave of global manufacturing PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing Index has now been followed today (3 December) by the ADP National Employment Report and fresh services PMIs from Europe, China and Russia. Together they paint a clear picture: manufacturing is struggling, services are doing the heavy lifting, and the labour market is finally blinking.

Why Monday’s Manufacturing PMIs and ISM Data Mattered So Much

Ahead of Monday, both XTB and Investing.com flagged December 1, 2025 as a key data day for traders, with final November manufacturing PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI topping the economic calendar. ^[1]

Key US-focused expectations going into Monday were: ^[2]

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final, November)
- Forecast: 51.9
- Previous: 52.5
ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)
- Previous: 48.7 (already in contraction territory)

The broader European schedule included final November manufacturing PMIs for: China (Caixin/RatingDog), Poland, Spain, Switzerland, France, Germany and the euro area as a whole — with markets watching particularly closely after weak German Ifo sentiment data and signs of renewed risk aversion in global equities and crypto. ^[3]

This set the stage for Monday to answer a simple question: is the budding global recovery for real, or is manufacturing still the weak link in the cycle?

Global Manufacturing Snapshot: Expansion in Asia, Softness in the West

Once final PMI readings were in, a global ranking compiled by RTTNews showed a sharp divide between resilient Asian and smaller economies on one side, and a still‑sluggish developed‑market factory sector on the other. ^[4]

From that scoreboard of major countries’ latest manufacturing PMIs (November 2025): ^[5]

Leaders (firm expansion)
- Thailand: 56.8
- India (final): 56.6
- Singapore: 55.4
- Sweden: 54.6
- Vietnam: 53.8
- Indonesia: 53.3
Solid but moderate expansion
- Norway: 53.0
- Hong Kong: 52.9
- Ireland: 52.8
- Greece: 52.7
- United States (S&P Global final): 52.2
- Netherlands: 51.8
- Australia (final): 51.6
- Spain: 51.5
- Italy: 50.6
- UK (final): 50.2
Borderline or contracting
- Malaysia: 50.1
- China (RatingDog/Caixin): 49.9
- Eurozone (HCOB final): 49.6
- South Korea: 49.4
- Poland: 49.1
- South Africa: 49.0
- Brazil & Taiwan: 48.8
- Japan (final): 48.7
- Canada: 48.4
- Germany (final): 48.2
- Turkey & Czech Republic: 48.0
- France (final): 47.8

The ranking makes three points very clear:

Global manufacturing is not in freefall – many Asian and smaller open economies show strong expansion (mid‑50s PMIs).
The euro area remains the main weak spot, with the bloc just under 50 and several core countries in contraction. ^[6]
The US displays a “two‑speed” manufacturing reality, with S&P Global’s PMI comfortably above 50 while the ISM survey still signals contraction.

Eurozone Manufacturing: Back in Contraction, Job Cuts Intensify

Monday’s HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, confirmed that euro‑zone factories slipped back into contraction in November: the index fell to 49.6 from 50.0 in October, a five‑month low and slightly below the flash estimate of 49.7. ^[7]

Under the hood, the survey highlighted: ^[8]

New orders returned to decline after stagnating in October.
Export orders fell for a fifth consecutive month.
Jobs were cut at the fastest pace since April, as firms responded to weaker demand.
The output index slipped to 50.4, the weakest in nine months.

Country‑level PMIs underline the divergence within the bloc: ^[9]

Germany: 48.2 (nine‑month low)
France: 47.8 (also a nine‑month low)
Italy: 50.6 (highest since March 2023)
Spain: 51.5 (still in expansion, though slower than October’s 52.1)

So, while the euro‑zone headline index is just under 50, core industrial powerhouses remain stuck in contraction, offset by resilience in southern Europe.

UK Manufacturing: First Expansion in a Year

In the UK, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI finally moved back above the 50 line, rising to 50.2 in November — the first expansion in roughly a year. ^[10]

The improvement has been attributed to:

A modest pick‑up in output.
Tentative recovery in new orders.
Better business sentiment after a difficult 2025.

However, the move is marginal — a reading only just above 50 — and comes against a backdrop of political and fiscal uncertainty, including turmoil around the Office for Budget Responsibility’s budget leak and subsequent leadership change, which could weigh on investment decisions. ^[11]

US Manufacturing: PMI vs ISM – Two Lenses on the Same Slowdown

S&P Global PMI: Still in Expansion, but Cooling

According to the RTTNews global scoreboard, the final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI printed 52.2 in November, down from 52.5 in October but still firmly in expansion territory. ^[12]

Investors had been primed for a softer 51.9 reading, based on pre‑release forecasts from XTB and Investing.com, so the modest upside surprise reinforced the narrative of an industrial sector that is slowing but not collapsing. ^[13]

ISM Manufacturing: Ninth Straight Month of Contraction

The ISM Manufacturing PMI told a more pessimistic story. The November index fell to 48.2 from 48.7 in October, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction in the ISM survey. ^[14]

Key details from the ISM report: ^[15]

New Orders Index: dropped to 47.4, its third month below 50, signalling subdued demand.
Production Index: improved to 51.4 from 48.2, showing output is still holding up despite weak orders.
Manufacturers reported layoffs and unfilled vacancies, reflecting a cautious hiring stance amid tariff uncertainty and softer demand.

Taken together, the S&P Global and ISM surveys suggest:

Larger, traditional manufacturers (captured more by ISM) are feeling the strain of tariffs, cost pressures and weaker export demand.
A broader cross‑section of firms (captured by S&P Global) are still seeing modest growth, but momentum is fading.

December 3, 2025: ADP Jobs Shock Hits the US Outlook

Today’s big surprise came from the ADP National Employment Report for November, released on 3 December 2025.

ADP reported that private‑sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs, versus expectations for a modest gain of around 10,000 and after a revised 47,000 increase in October. ^[16]

From ADP’s breakdown: ^[17]

Total private employment: –32,000
Goods‑producing jobs: –19,000
- Manufacturing: –18,000
- Construction: –9,000
- Natural resources/mining: +8,000
Services‑providing jobs: –13,000
- Information and professional/business services were notable drags.
By firm size:
- Small firms (1–49 employees): –120,000
- Medium firms (50–499): +51,000
- Large firms (500+): +39,000

Pay growth also continued to cool:

Job‑stayers: +4.4% year‑over‑year (down from 4.5% in October)
Job‑changers: +6.3% (down from 6.7%) ^[18]

Reuters underscored that this unexpected decline in private payrolls contrasts with still‑low weekly jobless claims and raises the risk that the upcoming official non‑farm payrolls report will surprise on the downside. ^[19]

Crucially for manufacturing, ADP’s data confirm what the ISM survey has been hinting at: factories are shedding workers again, even as output holds up, a classic sign of businesses preparing for leaner demand.

Eurozone Services: Fastest Overall Business Growth in 30 Months

Counterbalancing manufacturing gloom, today’s HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI showed that overall euro‑zone business activity is actually accelerating. The composite index, which combines manufacturing and services, rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October — the fastest pace in two‑and‑a‑half years and the sixth consecutive monthly increase. ^[20]

The story is almost entirely about services: ^[21]

Eurozone Services PMI climbed to 53.6 from 53.0, its highest level since May 2023.
New business in services grew at the strongest rate in 18 months.
Most euro‑zone economies recorded services expansion, with Ireland leading, Spain staying robust, and Italy posting its best growth since April 2023.
France saw private sector activity expand for the first time in 15 months, while Germany’s services growth moderated but remained positive.

Manufacturing remains the weak point: factory output growth slowed to a nine‑month low and manufacturers cut jobs at the sharpest pace since April, even as service providers continued to hire. ^[22]

For the European Central Bank (ECB), the combination of:

a healthy service sector,
still‑soft manufacturing, and
gradually easing output price inflation

supports its message of keeping rates unchanged for now, while watching wage and services inflation closely. ^[23]

China and Russia: Services PMIs Highlight a Split in Momentum

China: Services Growth Slows, Composite PMI Softens

In China, the RatingDog (formerly Caixin) General Services PMI slipped to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in October, the slowest pace of expansion in five months. ^[24]

Key takeaways from the private survey: ^[25]

Growth in new orders slowed, though export orders returned to expansion.
Firms continued to shed jobs for a fourth straight month.
Business confidence remained positive but eased to its lowest level since April.
The Composite Output Index (manufacturing + services) dropped to 51.2 from 51.8, signalling a softer overall expansion.

This fits with the broader narrative of an economy where services are still growing but losing steam, while manufacturing remains under pressure and deflation concerns linger.

Russia: Services PMI Re‑Accelerates

Russia’s November S&P Global Services PMI painted a very different picture. The index rose to 52.2 from 51.7, the fastest rate of growth in six months. ^[26]

The survey highlighted: ^[27]

A renewed expansion in new business, ending four months of decline.
Rising backlogs of work, which pushed firms to add staff, though hiring slowed compared with previous months.
Softer inflation pressures in input costs and output prices.
A Composite PMI reading around 50.1, indicating that gains in services are barely offsetting weakness in manufacturing.

For investors, this underlines how services‑led growth pockets exist even where manufacturing and geopolitics are major headwinds.

December 3 Economic Calendar: PMIs, ADP and US Services in Focus

Today’s global economic calendar, as flagged by various market commentaries and calendars, lines up broadly as follows: ^[28]

Europe / UK / US
- Final November services PMIs for the eurozone, key member states, the UK and the US.
- The Eurozone Composite PMI already released; US service readings (S&P Global and ISM) due later in the US session.
United States
- ADP National Employment Report for November – already released, showing a 32,000 drop in private payrolls. ^[29]
- ISM Services PMI (November) – expected to remain above 50, watched closely for signs of demand cooling and pricing pressures. ^[30]
- US industrial production and factory‑sector indicators later in the day. ^[31]

For traders, this aligns with what XTB called out in their December 3 economic calendar: PMIs, ADP employment and US industrial production form the backbone of today’s macro narrative. ^[32]

What It All Means for Central Banks and Markets

Federal Reserve

The Fed heads into its December meeting facing:

A manufacturing sector still in contraction by ISM standards. ^[33]
A services sector that has been resilient but may soften as higher rates bite. ^[34]
A labour market that just showed its first significant ADP wobble in months, with job losses concentrated in small firms and manufacturing. ^[35]

Markets were already pricing in a high probability of a rate cut in early 2026; softer jobs data and weaker PMIs will reinforce the case for a more dovish tone, even if the Fed chooses to keep rates unchanged in December.

European Central Bank

For the ECB, the message is slightly different: ^[36]

Manufacturing is under pressure, especially in Germany and France.
Services are driving the strongest business growth in two‑and‑a‑half years.
Price pressures are easing, particularly in the services output prices that the ECB monitors closely.

This mix argues for patience rather than aggressive easing — the ECB can keep rates on hold while signalling it is ready to act if the manufacturing slump deepens or if services inflation slows more decisively.

China and Emerging Markets

China’s softening services PMI and still‑weak manufacturing PMIs keep the door open for targeted policy support, especially to consumption and private‑sector confidence. ^[37]

Elsewhere in emerging markets, strong manufacturing PMIs in Thailand, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and others show global supply chains and regional demand are still supportive, even as developed‑market growth cools. ^[38]

Key Takeaways for Investors

For readers following Google News and Discover for tradable macro signals, here are the main conclusions from Monday’s and today’s data:

Global manufacturing remains bifurcated: strong expansion in parts of Asia and smaller economies, but persistent softness in the euro area and a mixed picture in the US. ^[39]
US data are flashing yellow: S&P PMI says growth, ISM says contraction, and ADP shows the first notable drop in private employment, especially in manufacturing and small firms. ^[40]
Services are still carrying the global economy: euro‑zone services are at their strongest in 30 months; Chinese and Russian services are expanding, albeit with different momentum. ^[41]
Central banks get cover to stay cautious: softer manufacturing and emerging labour‑market weakness argue against further tightening, while still‑positive services activity and sticky price pressures argue against premature, aggressive easing. ^[42]

What to Watch Next

Looking beyond today, market participants should focus on:

The official US non‑farm payrolls report and unemployment rate later in December, to see whether ADP’s weakness shows up in the government data. ^[43]
Final US services PMIs and the ISM Services Index for November, for fresh insight into demand and inflation in the largest part of the economy. ^[44]
Incoming inflation data in the euro area and US, which will determine how much room central banks really have to pivot. ^[45]
Any policy hints from central bank speakers as they digest this week’s PMIs and jobs figures.