NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 12:12 ET — Market closed
- Investors are bracing for a risk test when global trading resumes after the U.S. captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.
- Gulf equities fell on Sunday as oil-sensitive shares tracked crude’s weakness; OPEC+ kept output policy unchanged.
- Next catalysts include the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report and Jan. 13 U.S. CPI and major bank earnings.
Global stock markets were shut on Sunday, but investors were preparing for a potentially volatile restart after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and said it would take temporary control of the oil-rich country. Strategists said the surprise escalation could prompt a short-term shift into safe-haven assets such as government bonds and gold when major markets reopen.
The timing matters because risk appetite was already being tested by thin year-end liquidity and a crowded January calendar of U.S. data and earnings that investors use to set positions early in the year. A geopolitical shock can hit hardest when markets are expensive and traders are looking for a clear signal on growth and interest rates.
Oil is an immediate transmission channel. Most Gulf stock markets, among the few open on Sunday, ended lower, with Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index down 1.8% and Saudi Aramco off 1.6%, while Qatar edged up 0.2%.
OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged after a brief meeting on Sunday, reaffirming a previously agreed pause in further output hikes early in the year. The group said its eight-member panel will next meet on Feb. 1, after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025 amid oversupply concerns.
In the last full global session on Friday, the MSCI world equity index rose 0.43%, while Wall Street finished mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.19%, the Dow up 0.66% and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. Europe’s STOXX 600 gained 0.67% and London’s FTSE 100 touched 10,000 for the first time; Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.75% even as Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.37%.
U.S. crude settled at $57.32 a barrel and Brent at $60.75, while the dollar index rose to 98.43 as U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of incoming employment data.
Europe’s rally was led by technology and defence shares, with the STOXX 600 rising to 596.14, within sight of the 600-point level watched by traders as a psychological marker. ASML jumped 7% and Denmark’s Orsted rose after challenging a U.S. suspension of its Revolution Wind project lease, while euro zone factory activity data showed the sector remained in contraction in December.
For U.S. stocks, investors are watching whether the market can break out of a range after ending 2025 with gains but slipping at year-end. “The market is looking for direction,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, as traders look to the Jan. 9 jobs report, the Jan. 13 U.S. consumer price index and the start of big-bank earnings the same day, led by JPMorgan. Reuters
A Reuters poll showed December payrolls are expected to rise by 55,000 after November’s 64,000 increase, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%, a more than four-year high. Interest-rate futures that reflect expectations for the Fed’s policy rate have priced little chance of a cut at the late-January meeting, but close to a 50% chance of a quarter-point (0.25 percentage point) reduction in March.
Investors will also be judging whether earnings growth can justify high valuations, with LSEG IBES, which compiles analyst forecasts, showing S&P 500 earnings expected to rise 15.5% in 2026 after an estimated 13% increase in 2025.
But the downside risk is clear: if the Venezuela situation triggers sustained oil volatility or a broader risk-off move — when investors cut exposure to stocks and rotate into safer assets — richly valued markets could react sharply, especially if next week’s data undermines the case for further Fed easing.
The first test comes when global markets reopen on Monday, with traders watching oil, the dollar and whether benchmark equity indexes can hold early-2026 gains. The next scheduled catalysts are the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report, the Jan. 13 inflation data and major bank earnings, alongside OPEC+’s Feb. 1 meeting as investors reassess the energy backdrop.
