New Delhi, January 26, 2026, 12:19 (IST)
- Gold jumped beyond $5,000 an ounce in overseas trading, pushing precious metals markets into a fresh frenzy.
- MCX gold futures in India surged to a record ₹1,59,226 per 10 grams last week, while IBJA’s 24-carat benchmark settled at ₹1,54,310 on Friday.
- Traders are focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve, a Supreme Court tariff hearing, and India’s Feb. 1 budget for new cues.
Gold surged past $5,000 an ounce Monday, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets. Silver hit record levels, adding pressure on Indian bullion prices despite local commodity markets being closed for a holiday.
This shift holds weight in India, where global prices directly influence local rates during a crucial period: the government unveils its annual budget on Feb. 1. Changes to import duties here often send shockwaves through jewellers, refiners, and retail buyers alike.
Monday’s session in India saw a pause on screens as Republic Day shut the domestic commodities market. Still, price moves overseas kept traders alert. Any sudden shifts in the dollar or U.S. rate expectations could hit Indian futures fast once trading kicks back in.
Spot gold climbed 1.5% to $5,058.09 an ounce by 0544 GMT, after hitting a record $5,092.71 earlier, Reuters reported. Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, linked the surge to “this crisis of confidence in the U.S. administration and U.S. assets,” which is pushing money into gold. Philip Newman, director at Metals Focus, suggested prices could reach “around $5,500 later this year.” 1
In India, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) gold futures — which fix prices for future delivery — closed Friday at ₹1,55,963 per 10 grams, up ₹13,446 over five sessions, according to Aaj Tak. The contract touched a record high of ₹1,59,226 earlier in the week. Silver futures ended Friday at ₹3,34,600 per kg, surging ₹46,838 in the same period. IBJA’s nationwide benchmark listed 24-carat gold at ₹1,54,310 per 10 grams, 22-carat at ₹1,50,610, and silver at ₹3,17,705 per kg. Retail jewelry prices generally climb higher once GST and making charges are factored in. 2
Silver’s rally has been the louder headline in recent moves. On Monday, Reuters reported spot silver hitting an intraday record of $109.44 an ounce, highlighting the rapid pace across the precious-metals sector.
In Mumbai and Delhi trading floors, attention is on U.S. developments. “If prices slip a little, it might be a prime buying moment,” said Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services. He highlighted the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court hearing on trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s next move. Mer also warned that India’s Feb. 1 budget could alter import duties, impacting domestic gold and silver prices. 3
Jagran, quoting PTI, flagged potential sharp swings this week, tying the immediate market direction to budget forecasts and ongoing India–EU trade negotiations over a proposed free-trade deal. 4
Beyond India, some analysts are now tossing around much larger figures — and not all are reassuring. “The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing very much into gold’s hands,” independent analyst Ross Norman told Reuters.
Part of the support comes from structural factors. Central banks continue to buy steadily, and gold-backed exchange-traded funds—those holding bullion for investors—have attracted robust inflows, Reuters noted. “There’s an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield,” said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund; lower interest rates reduce that cost.
But the rally won’t be without hiccups. Philip Newman of Metals Focus cautioned that “periodic pullbacks are likely” as investors lock in gains. The market could slide if rate-cut bets lose steam, geopolitical risks ease, or India’s budget fails to boost local costs as hoped.
Traders are zeroing in on the calendar: the Fed meeting, U.S. tariff legal battles, overseas inflation reports, and India’s Feb. 1 budget all demand attention. Gold, now firmly in the 5,000s, is reacting sharply—minor news is triggering outsized moves.
