London, February 28, 2026, 17:46 (GMT) — The session has ended.
Gold kicks off the week with a shot of geopolitical anxiety after strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel, setting up a potential safe-haven rush when markets open Monday. “Safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to see an upside gap,” noted OCBC’s Christopher Wong. Vishnu Varathan at Mizuho flagged a possible “10-25% premium” in oil prices if the turmoil widens. Reuters
Markets aren’t open this weekend. Still, the setup looks familiar: bullion remains a go-to hedge when it comes to policy shocks or sudden energy price spikes that could bleed into inflation.
Lower yields on U.S. Treasuries have played a role as well. Since gold doesn’t pay interest, falling yields make holding the metal less expensive.
Spot gold (XAU=) climbed 0.8% late Friday, hitting $5,230.56 an ounce. U.S. April COMEX futures finished up 1%, closing at $5,247.90. February marked a 7.6% monthly gain for gold—seven months running. CME FedWatch pegged June rate cut odds at roughly 42%. “There’s a lot of nervousness surrounding geopolitics,” Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible said, flagging $5,450 as the next upside target and support at $5,120. Reuters
The oil trade is bracing for fallout after the weekend’s surprise, with gold likely to react if things escalate. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters, and several major oil companies and trading firms have put shipments on hold at the bottleneck. Brent crude hovered near $73 per barrel on Friday. Capital Economics’ William Jackson pointed out that hitting $80 would revisit last June’s highs, but a sustained disruption could drive Brent up to $100—potentially fueling more global inflation.
Real yields—those inflation-adjusted Treasury returns—remain central to the short-term story, as they set the opportunity cost of owning gold. Should real yields bounce higher, whether from upbeat economic numbers or a change in Fed tone, gold’s momentum could fade fast.
The dollar stands as the other gatekeeper. When investors pile into greenbacks, gold’s climb can lose some shine for those buying with different currencies—even if bullion holds steady in U.S. dollar terms.
The move can just as easily reverse. Should the Middle East crisis de-escalate quickly, gold’s weekend risk premium might evaporate, leaving the metal vulnerable after a robust month.
Early Asia’s thin liquidity might stretch the initial reaction Monday. Traders are eyeing London and New York for confirmation, gauging if the safe-haven push holds up past that first jolt.
The next major macro event lands March 6, when February’s U.S. jobs report hits at 08:30 a.m. Eastern.
This week’s focus is narrow: Middle East headlines, oil, and yields are all in play. Monday’s open will give an early read, with payrolls emerging as the first real hurdle.
