Precious metals extend a powerful rally as traders price in easier Fed policy, fresh liquidity and the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown on record.
- Spot gold is holding above $4,200 an ounce on Thursday, near a more-than-three‑week high, after surging around 2% in the previous session as U.S. Treasury yields fell and traders ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. [1]
- Silver has surged above $53 an ounce, outpacing gold and pulling the gold–silver ratio down to around 80, its lowest level in a month, though still historically elevated. [2]
- The end of the record‑long U.S. government shutdown has shifted attention to a backlog of delayed economic data that could confirm a weakening U.S. labor market and reinforce the case for lower rates. [3]
- Comments from New York Fed President John Williams about restarting bond purchases to maintain “ample” liquidity, and the upcoming retirement of Fed policymaker Raphael Bostic, are feeding expectations of a more dovish Fed. [4]
- Big banks now see room for significantly higher gold over the next year, with JPMorgan projecting that prices could breach $5,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 if the easing cycle unfolds as expected. [5]
Gold Holds Gains Above $4,200 After Powerful Mid‑Week Surge
Gold is trading firmly above $4,200 per ounce on Thursday, November 13, 2025, consolidating a sharp rally that began earlier in the week.
On Wednesday, spot gold jumped about 2% to roughly $4,209 an ounce, its highest level since October 21, while December futures settled around $4,214 — a strong move for a single session. The catalyst: falling U.S. Treasury yields and growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut at its December meeting, with market-implied odds hovering around two‑thirds. [6]
A separate Reuters/Kitco market wrap put spot prices near $4,198 and U.S. futures just shy of $4,190 during Wednesday’s U.S. session, again emphasizing that bullion was rallying ahead of a decisive vote in the House of Representatives to end the federal shutdown. [7]
As of early afternoon on Thursday, COMEX gold futures for December delivery are trading in the low‑$4,240s, up around 0.7% on the day, while spot prices are broadly aligned just above $4,240, according to live futures data. [8]
That leaves gold:
- Near its recent record zone above $4,300
- Up more than 55% so far in 2025, as persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical risk and aggressive central‑bank buying have combined with expectations of easier U.S. policy. [9]
For a market that often moves in slow motion, these are huge numbers.
Rate-Cut Hopes and a Softer Dollar Power the Move
The immediate drivers of this week’s move are classic bullion themes:
- Weakening U.S. data:
Private payrolls figures from ADP showed U.S. employers shedding an average of about 11,000+ jobs per week in the four weeks to October 25, reinforcing the sense that the labor market is finally losing steam. [10] - Falling Treasury yields:
Benchmark 10‑year U.S. yields have slipped to around 4.06–4.09%, their lowest levels since early November, as investors price in more aggressive easing. Shorter‑dated two‑year notes — the part of the curve most sensitive to Fed expectations — have also moved lower. [11] - Fed rate‑cut bets:
Fed funds futures now imply roughly a 65–67% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut in December, according to reporting that cites CME’s FedWatch tool. [12] - A softer dollar and safe‑haven demand:
The U.S. dollar index has been drifting lower against major peers over recent days as investors rotate out of the greenback into risk assets and alternatives like gold. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty have kept safe‑haven demand robust, even as equities grind higher. [13]
Because gold doesn’t pay interest, it tends to shine brightest when real yields and policy rates are falling or expected to fall. The current backdrop — plateauing inflation but softening growth and political drama in Washington — is almost tailor‑made for bullion bulls.
Shutdown Ends, Data Deluge Looms
Adding fuel to the rally is the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.
- The House of Representatives is voting to reopen the government, following Senate approval, in what markets view as a turning point after 42 days of partial closure. [14]
- President Donald Trump has signed legislation to end the shutdown, clearing the way for federal workers to be paid and for key agencies to resume normal operations, according to overnight market summaries. [15]
For gold, the shutdown mattered in two ways:
- Data blackout:
The closure delayed major economic releases, including official jobs, inflation and growth data. That forced traders to rely on private surveys and increased uncertainty about the true state of the economy — a supportive backdrop for gold. [16] - Risk sentiment swings:
Shutdown brinkmanship has periodically spooked markets, boosting demand for safe‑haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, even as it weighed on the dollar.
With the government now reopening, economists expect a “data dump” over the coming weeks as agencies release postponed statistics. If those reports confirm weakness in the labor market and broader economy, it could lock in expectations for multiple Fed cuts in 2026 — a scenario that many gold bulls are already betting on. [17]
Fed Liquidity Talk Gives Bullion Another Tailwind
Beyond rate cuts, gold traders latched onto a new and powerful narrative this week: the return of Fed bond‑buying.
In a widely discussed speech, New York Fed President John Williams said it may soon be appropriate to “begin the process of gradual purchases of assets” to ensure that the central bank maintains an “ample level of reserves” in the banking system — essentially hinting at renewed bond‑buying operations. [18]
According to BullionVault’s market commentary:
- Gold jumped from about $4,100 to $4,180 per ounce in response to Williams’ remarks, hitting a fresh three‑week high. [19]
- U.S. and European equity indices also pushed to or near record highs as investors cheered the prospect of easier financial conditions. [20]
At the same time, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced plans to step down at the end of his current term in February. Bostic has generally been seen as cautious on rate cuts; markets are now speculating that his eventual replacement could be more dovish, especially as the White House continues to push for lower borrowing costs. [21]
Put together, traders see:
- A Fed that is likely to cut rates soon
- A growing chance that the Fed will restart some form of bond‑purchase program to keep markets liquid
- Ongoing political pressure to keep financial conditions loose
All of that tends to be bullish for gold, which is widely viewed as a hedge against currency debasement and aggressive monetary easing.
Silver Steals the Spotlight as Gold–Silver Ratio Slides
While gold is grabbing the headlines, silver is quietly having an even bigger week.
- Silver surged above $52 per ounce and then broke past $53, gaining nearly 10% from last weekend’s levels. [22]
- On Wednesday, spot silver was up around 4.6% to roughly $53.6 an ounce, its highest since mid‑October, according to Reuters. [23]
That explosive move has slashed the gold–silver ratio — the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold:
- The ratio has fallen below 80, its lowest in about a month. [24]
- Yet for 2025 as a whole, the ratio has still averaged above 90, one of the highest annual readings outside of World War II and higher than during the recessions of 1991 and 2020. [25]
In other words, silver is still historically cheap relative to gold, even after its recent sprint.
BullionVault cites several forces behind silver’s outperformance: [26]
- Industrial demand: Silver is heavily used in electronics and especially in solar photovoltaic panels. Chinese solar manufacturers have reported robust demand, even as they work to reduce silver usage through substitution and efficiency gains.
- Strategic importance: Silver has been added to the U.S. government’s Critical Minerals List, underscoring its role in clean‑energy technology and national security.
- Investor positioning: Exchange‑traded products (ETPs) backed by silver have seen a “remarkable” year, with India’s share of global holdings roughly doubling to around 8% by September.
- Market structure: Following a “silver squeeze” in London earlier this year, fresh metal has flowed into London vaults, easing outright scarcity but leaving the market tight enough that spot metal still trades in slight backwardation versus futures — a sign of strong near‑term demand.
Analysts at Mitsubishi’s precious‑metals team argue that silver has “regained its role as a bellwether” for the broader metals complex, noting its dual nature as both an industrial metal and a speculative haven. [27]
Other Precious Metals: Platinum and Palladium Join the Rally
The rally isn’t limited to gold and silver:
- Platinum has climbed around 2% to roughly $1,617 per ounce,
- Palladium is up about 2.5% near $1,481,
according to Wednesday’s closing prices reported by Reuters. [28]
Both metals are heavily used in auto catalysts and industrial applications, so their parallel gains with silver support the idea that markets are betting on a combination of easier monetary policy and resilient real‑economy demand rather than a pure “crisis only” trade.
Market Snapshot – November 13, 2025 (Mid‑Session)
Based on live futures and spot pricing around midday UTC: [29]
- Spot gold: ~$4,240–4,245/oz
- COMEX Dec 2025 gold futures: ~$4,244/oz, up about 0.7% on the day
- Spot silver: ~$54/oz region (after touching above $53.5 on Wednesday)
- Platinum: ~$1,650/oz
- Palladium: ~$1,520/oz
Yields and FX:
- U.S. 10‑year yield: ~4.07–4.09%, near recent lows
- U.S. dollar index: slightly softer against a basket of major currencies, though up modestly versus the yen
Equities:
- Global stock benchmarks including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Europe’s STOXX 600 are at or near record highs, as investors juggle the end of the shutdown, Fed easing hopes and strong earnings from select sectors. [30]
This combination — strong gold, strong stocks, softening yields — is unusual but not unprecedented. It tends to appear when markets believe central banks will “have investors’ backs” with easier policy, even as growth wobbles.
What to Watch Next for Gold and Silver
Looking ahead, traders and analysts are focused on a few critical questions:
- Will incoming U.S. data confirm a slowdown?
If the backlog of jobs, inflation and growth reports shows a clear downtrend, it will reinforce expectations for multiple Fed cuts in 2026, a backdrop that historically supports higher gold prices. [31] - How aggressive will the Fed be on liquidity?
John Williams’ remarks suggest a willingness to restart bond‑buying to maintain ample reserves, but the pace and scale of those purchases — and whether they resemble full‑blown quantitative easing — are still unknown. [32] - Can the dollar resume its climb?
A sharp rebound in the dollar could cap or partially reverse gold’s gains, especially if foreign central banks turn less dovish than the Fed. - Does silver keep outperforming?
With the gold–silver ratio still historically high, some strategists believe silver has more catch‑up potential, particularly if industrial demand from solar and electronics remains strong. Others warn that silver’s notorious volatility cuts both ways. [33] - Long‑term price targets:
JPMorgan’s call for gold above $5,000 by late 2026 is now part of the mainstream conversation. That target assumes persistent demand for safe‑haven assets, ongoing central‑bank buying and a sustained period of lower real rates. [34]
Bottom Line
For Thursday, November 13, 2025, the story in precious metals is clear:
- Gold is holding above $4,200, near multi‑week highs, supported by Fed rate‑cut expectations, falling yields, a softer dollar and the end of the U.S. shutdown.
- Silver is the star performer, ripping above $53 and dragging the gold–silver ratio down from extreme highs as investors rediscover its dual role as an industrial and safe‑haven metal.
- Signals from the Federal Reserve about renewed bond‑buying and an easier policy stance have added a powerful new pillar under the bull case for precious metals.
As always, this article is for information only and is not investment advice. Gold and silver remain highly volatile assets, and future moves will hinge on how incoming data reshape expectations for the Fed, the dollar and global growth.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.bullionvault.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.bullionvault.com, 5. longbridge.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.kitco.com, 8. www.google.com, 9. longbridge.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.kitco.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.kitco.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.share-talk.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.share-talk.com, 18. www.bullionvault.com, 19. www.bullionvault.com, 20. www.bullionvault.com, 21. www.kitco.com, 22. www.bullionvault.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.bullionvault.com, 25. www.bullionvault.com, 26. www.bullionvault.com, 27. www.bullionvault.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.google.com, 30. www.kitco.com, 31. www.share-talk.com, 32. www.bullionvault.com, 33. www.bullionvault.com, 34. longbridge.com
