SINGAPORE, February 4, 2026, 06:07 SGT — Premarket
- Spot gold jumped 5.2% on Tuesday, with U.S. April futures closing up 6.1% after dropping sharply over the previous two sessions.
- Traders blamed the whipsaw on forced position cuts linked to higher futures margins and a shift in expectations following a Fed leadership shake-up.
- Attention turns to when the delayed U.S. jobs report will drop and if physical demand will keep prices supported through mid-February.
Gold prices surged Tuesday following two tough sessions, with spot gold climbing 5.2% to $4,906.82 an ounce. U.S. April futures jumped 6.1%, closing at $4,935. Peter Grant from Zaner Metals called the recent dip a correction within a longer-term uptrend, pointing to $4,400 as support and $5,100 as resistance.
The rebound matters because the selloff came so quickly it looked more mechanical than driven by fundamentals, following gold’s peak at $5,594.8 on Jan. 29 before a sharp drop this week. Analysts now say the real question is whether demand outside the futures market will kick back in. Suki Cooper at Standard Chartered highlights the physical market as crucial to “setting the floor” once China’s Lunar New Year ends. Reuters
Monday’s drop highlighted the fallout when leverage clashes with tighter trading rules. By early afternoon in New York, spot gold had dipped 4.8% to $4,630.59, after tumbling almost 10% earlier in the session. The selloff came as investors grappled with higher “margin” requirements — the cash needed to maintain futures bets — alongside a stronger dollar. Reuters
The shock rippled well past bullion, rattling commodities and risk assets after Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell steps down in May. “Investors view Warsh as more hawkish,” said Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as selling sped up ahead of margin changes. Reuters
Despite recent volatility, big banks remain bullish on the long-term outlook for gold. J.P. Morgan, in a note, projects gold hitting $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026 and forecasts central banks will buy 800 tonnes this year.
Gold’s rebound sparked a lift in “gold stock” trading as well. Canada’s main index at the Toronto Stock Exchange climbed 0.6% Tuesday, while its materials sector surged 4.1%, with mining shares following bullion higher. Brian Madden from First Avenue Investment Counsel warned, “We may not be out of the woods yet.” Reuters
The near-term focus is on the macro calendar since it shapes rate expectations, and gold reacts to real yields and the dollar. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a delay of the January employment report, originally set for Friday, due to the partial government shutdown, leaving markets without a crucial data point this week.
Washington stepped in to end the shutdown, yet traders remain uncertain about the timing. On Tuesday, Trump signed a spending bill to reopen much of the government following a four-day lapse, sparking a rush to reschedule postponed releases.
The risks remain clear. If volatility stays elevated and margin calls pile up, another wave of forced selling could strike. On top of that, a stronger dollar or a shift in Fed policy under Warsh might limit any upside, dragging gold back down near last week’s swing lows.
Traders will be eyeing whether spot gold can maintain the $4,900 level as Asian markets pick up. Silver’s volatility also remains a key focus—will it calm or continue to ripple through the sector? The bigger trigger ahead remains the labour market report itself. The BLS had scheduled the January Employment Situation release for Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, but that timing is now uncertain.
