London, Feb 20, 2026, 11:16 GMT — Regular session
- Spot gold picked up 0.7% to $5,032.49 per ounce, but remains on track for a slight weekly decline.
- U.S.-Iran tensions were top of mind for investors, as softer European yields factored in ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation numbers.
- Silver, platinum, and palladium climbed as well, each set to notch weekly gains.
Gold edged 0.7% higher to $5,032.49 an ounce by 0941 GMT on Friday, buoyed by ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and a pullback in European bond yields. Still, the metal looked set for a 0.2% weekly drop. U.S. gold futures for April delivery moved up 1.1%, reaching $5,052.70. Traders awaited U.S. inflation data expected later in the day.
Gold’s back under the microscope as a rates trade. With bullion offering zero yield, it tends to gain ground when yields slip and that “opportunity cost” goes down.
Then there’s nerves. Geopolitical tension tends to push investors toward so-called safe-haven assets. Sometimes that demand fades quickly, but for a brief stretch, it can move prices.
Reuters’ survey of economists points to a 0.3% rise in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for December, with the annual core PCE number expected to hit 2.9%—just above November’s 2.8%. “The year-on-year growth rate of the core has shown essentially no progress since mid-2024,” noted Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP. Reuters
Markets are sticking with bets on rates staying put. According to the Fed Rate Monitor at Investing.com, there’s a 95% chance traders see the Fed keeping its target at 3.50%-3.75% when policymakers meet March 18. The odds for a cut to 3.25%-3.50% sit at just 5%.
Geopolitics isn’t going away. Reuters said U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Iran with “really bad things” unless it agreed to a “meaningful” nuclear deal in the next 10 to 15 days. Reuters
The stronger dollar weighed on markets this week, though gold managed a rebound during this session. Reuters pointed out that spot gold in Canada was still on track for a weekly drop, with the U.S. dollar hovering near a one-month peak. After Thursday’s close, gold miners Lundin Gold and Eldorado Gold reported fourth-quarter profits ahead of expectations.
Over in Europe, investors have been sifting through comments from European Central Bank leadership. ECB President Christine Lagarde told the Wall Street Journal her “baseline” is to stay on through her full term, Reuters said, pushing back on chatter about leaving early. Reuters
Physical demand in Asia hasn’t provided much support at these prices. Indian bullion dealers pushed discounts out to $18 an ounce, up from last week’s $12, as the shaky price action discouraged buyers. Meanwhile, big markets like China were closed for the Lunar New Year.
Bulls face a clear risk here: hotter-than-expected inflation might drive traders to lift yields and the dollar, usually a headwind for gold. And if tensions between the U.S. and Iran show any sign of easing, that could dull the safe-haven appeal too.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has set Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m. EST, for the release of the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays report — with the PCE price index in tow — and the rescheduled advance GDP figures.
