NEW YORK, January 28, 2026, 17:16 (EST)
- Gold surged 4%, hovering around $5,400 an ounce following the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.
- Concerns about Fed independence and the dollar’s decline have boosted appetite for “safe-haven” metals.
- Top forecasts now hover between $5,400 and $6,000, though analysts caution the rally may be overextended.
Gold surged 4% on Wednesday, closing in on $5,400 an ounce for the first time as investors sought refuge amid economic and geopolitical turmoil. The rally ignored widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady. 1
It’s crucial now as currency shifts and central-bank policies start shaping daily prices. Gold, seen as a “safe-haven” asset—bought when investors seek refuge from market turmoil—has seen mostly one-way flows throughout January.
The Fed held rates steady, with little market reaction despite Chair Jerome Powell’s reminder that inflation remains well above the 2% target. Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, dissented, pushing for a 25-basis-point cut. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said he plans to announce his choice to succeed Powell when his term expires in May.
“The rally in precious metals has taken on a life of its own,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. He noted that gold looks overbought and ripe for a pullback, yet persistent dip-buying continues to support further gains.
Trader Tai Wong noted the metals complex kept climbing throughout Powell’s press conference, showing no real signs of slowing down. Silver jumped 3.3% to $116.69 an ounce, after hitting a record $117.69 on Monday. Analysts at Standard Chartered, however, flagged several indicators pointing to a possible near-term correction in silver prices.
The dollar’s slide has been a key factor. Reuters’ Morning Bid newsletter noted selling picked up pace after Trump casually told a reporter the dollar was “doing great.” That pushed the euro above $1.20 for the first time in over 4½ years and sent the Swiss franc to a decade-high. TD Securities analyst Prashant Newnaha captured the concern perfectly: earning 4% on Treasuries but losing 10% on the currency. 2
Yahoo Finance noted gold surged past $5,300 earlier Wednesday as Trump shrugged off the dollar’s decline, leaving investors zeroed in on the Fed and currency conditions. 3
Euro Pacific Asset Management’s chief economist Peter Schiff called the gold and silver rally more of a warning than a hedge. Speaking on Fox Business, he warned of an impending U.S. dollar and sovereign debt crisis. Schiff predicted the fallout would dwarf the 2008 financial meltdown, saying it would “look like a Sunday school picnic.” (A sovereign debt crisis happens when investors doubt a government’s ability to fund itself.) 4
The Fox Business report included some pushback. Carrie Sheffield, senior policy analyst at the Independent Women’s Forum, pointed out that certain commentators make bold predictions that frequently miss the mark. Schiff added that even official-looking data can hide deeper weaknesses.
Big banks are pushing their gold price targets higher. Deutsche Bank now projects gold could hit $6,000 an ounce by 2026, even suggesting $6,900 in certain scenarios. Societe Generale also mentioned a $6,000 level. Morgan Stanley laid out a bull case at $5,700, while Goldman Sachs flagged upside risk beyond its $5,400 forecast for December 2026. 5
The rally is sparking buzz among retail investors as well. Barron’s Advisor pointed to the sharp rise in gold and silver prices, raising a hot question for newcomers: have they missed the boat? 6
But the rally comes with clear warning signs. Grant at Zaner Metals pointed out gold is still overbought, while Standard Chartered highlighted early signals of a silver retreat. A steady dollar, a more hawkish Fed tone, or just profit-taking might easily unsettle the market. Schiff’s prediction of a dollar collapse remains a projection, not a schedule.
Traders are focused on Trump’s pledged Fed-chair nominee, any changes in official talk on the dollar, and whether demand for safe havens persists if risk appetite stabilizes. Crypto firm Tether announced plans to put 10%–15% of its portfolio into physical gold, signaling fresh buyers jumping in despite record prices.
