- Sharp pullback from records: Gold futures tumbled about 2% in India on Oct 28 (to ~₹1.21 lakh per 10g), down from mid-October peaks above ₹1.30 lakh. Internationally, spot gold slid toward $3,940/oz (a three-week low) as US-China trade optimism reduced safe-haven demand. Silver also fell sharply after hitting an all-time high (~$54.5/oz) in mid-October.
- Expected correction: Analysts say a 10–15% correction was overdue after gold’s furious rally from ~₹75,000 to ₹1.30 lakh in recent monthsindiatoday.inindiatoday.in. Vighnaharta’s Mahendra Luniya calls this “both expected and necessary,” noting it should take prices back toward ~₹1.15 lakh per 10gindiatoday.in. Even after this drop, demand in India remains strong, buoyed by the festival and wedding seasonindiatoday.in. As one expert puts it, this looks like a “pause, not a reversal” in the uptrendindiatoday.inindiatoday.in.
- Drivers of the slide: Encouraging US-China trade talks (an ASEAN framework deal) lifted risk appetite and knocked gold downreuters.comfinancemagnates.com. “A de-frosting of U.S.-China trade relations has somewhat pulled the rug out from under the gold price,” notes Tim Waterer of KCM Tradereuters.com. At the same time, markets expect the Fed to cut rates (lowering real yields), which usually supports goldts2.techlivemint.com. UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo cautions that even a positive trade deal could be bullish for bullion: with lower tariffs, the Fed may ease policy more, and “lower real interest rates should still support demand for gold”ts2.tech.
- Silver’s wild ride: Silver has been even more volatile. After soaring past $50 (briefly touching $54.5) for the first time since 1980, it plunged on profit-takingts2.techts2.tech. Silver is still up about 65–70% year-to-datets2.tech. Ts2.tech reports analysts see a “perfect storm” behind silver’s boom: geopolitical tension, inflation/weak dollar fears, Fed easing, booming industrial demand (solar, EVs) and tight supplyts2.tech. With the recent dip, one commentator observed “we have a short-term top at $54” and that silver may trade choppily just under $50 for nowts2.tech. Even so, fundamentals (industrial uses) remain solidindiatoday.in.
- What experts say: Views are split. In India, gold experts still find buyers even at high pricesindiatoday.in. Augmont’s Renisha Chainani notes that despite profit-booking, “gold’s overall outlook remains optimistic”indiatoday.in. Many advise using dips to accumulate bullion. XTB’s Michał Stajniak cautions that trade-deal news is pressuring gold nowfinancemagnates.com, but he also sees the recent drop as a buying opportunity if the rally stalls (gold is still in a long uptrend). Conversely, Reliance Securities’ Jigar Trivedi is more bearish short-term, recommending a “sell on bounce” strategy: he sees support around ₹1.15–1.17 lakh and resistance near ₹1.20 lakh, with focus on the Fed meeting and the Trump-Xi summitlivemint.com.
- Forecasts diverge: Some banks remain ultra-bullish – for example, HSBC raised its 2025 average gold forecast to ~$3,455/oz and says a $5,000 level by 2026 is “possible” given ongoing risksts2.tech. By contrast, Capital Economics’ Neil Shearing warns that gold’s record highs (in real terms) may be unsustainable: he now forecasts gold falling back to ~$3,500/oz by end-2026reuters.com. In any case, most agree volatility will persist: as one analyst notes, “buying the dips” may pay off, but only after this healthy correction shakes out the speculative frothts2.techts2.tech.
Gold’s recent retreat reflects changing sentiment more than broken fundamentals. As Metals Focus’s Matthew Piggott puts it, gold’s epic 2025 rally “reflects an extremely positive macro backdrop for safe-haven assets”ts2.tech. For now, though, investors will be watching Wednesday’s US Fed meeting and any news from Trump-Xi trade talks – events that could keep bullion on edge. If the Fed cuts as expected, the dollar might weaken (supporting gold long-term), but a smooth trade path would damp immediate demand for safety. In short, this pullback seems like a normal correction. Many experts are watching key levels (around ₹1.15–1.17 lakh in India, $3,830–3,865 internationally as technical support)livemint.comfinancemagnates.com. For confident buyers, it may be a “window of opportunity”indiatoday.in – but traders should stay cautious and follow the evolving forecasts.
Sources: Current prices and expert comments are drawn from India Today, Reuters, Livemint, Moneycontrol, and Ts2.tech analysis, among others. These cover both domestic (MCX) and global gold/silver markets as of Oct 28, 2025.
