- Record highs: Gold hit a new all-time high (~$3,812/oz) on Sep 29, up over 1% on the day and rising for a seventh week [1] [2]. Silver jumped ~2% to about $47/oz (a 14-year high), while platinum (~$1,612) and palladium (~$1,277) also climbed to multi-year peaks [3] [4].
- Monetary/Geo drivers: The surge was fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts (after US inflation matched forecasts) and fears of a US government shutdown, alongside a weaker dollar [5] [6]. The CME FedWatch tool shows ~90% odds of a 25bp cut in October and ~65% in December, lifting safe-haven demand and lifting bullion’s appeal [7] [8].
- Bullish sentiment: Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo sees room for “more upside…targeting a level of $3,900/oz” [9], and firms like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the rally to continue [10] [11]. Pepperstone’s Michael Brown notes the rally “has momentum firmly on their side,” eyeing ~$4,000 gold and ~$50 silver [12].
- ETF and physical demand: Strong buying underpins prices. The world’s largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) recently hiked holdings to ~1,006 tonnes (highest since 2022) [13]. Inflows into precious-metals ETFs are at multi-year highs, while Asian demand remains firm – Indian premiums on bullion hit record levels ahead of autumn festivals [14] [15]. Central banks are also adding gold to reserves (e.g. ~415 tonnes net purchases in H1 2025) [16] [17].
- Broad-based rally: As gold climbs, other metals are catching up. Silver has rallied ~57% in 2025, and platinum’s 12-year high reflects tight market fundamentals [18] [19]. Experts note the bull case is “solid” for all major precious metals, given strong investor interest and limited new supply [20] [21].
Record highs across gold, silver and beyond
Gold prices have exploded in recent weeks. On Sep 29 spot gold briefly topped $3,812/oz, eclipsing last week’s record [22]. After six straight weekly gains, the metal is up roughly 45% year-to-date [23]. Silver surged above $46–47/oz, hitting a 14-year high [24]. Platinum also cracked a 12-year peak (~$1,612) and palladium climbed into the mid-$1,200s (both at multi-year highs) [25]. These moves mark broad, historic rallies: gold’s latest high pushes it well past the previous records from 2022, while silver and platinum are trading near levels last seen over a decade ago [26] [27]. Technical momentum is strong – gold is well above key support zones (the ~$3,750–3,800 range) and shows little sign of easing.
These gains are remarkable in context. For example, silver has lifted roughly 57% in 2025 – dwarfing its long-term average – and platinum has outperformed palladium (a reversal of past trends) [28]. Traders note that both fundamental tightness (e.g. limited new mine output) and short-term momentum (e.g. trend-following inflows) are driving prices to new highs. As independent analyst Ross Norman observes, both silver and platinum are rallying on “increased industrial activity on rate cuts and higher levels of inventory holding” [29], signaling strong underlying demand even outside the gold market.
Key drivers: Fed policy, dollar weakness and safe-haven flows
The precious metals boom has clear macro drivers. Federal Reserve policy is foremost: recent US data (especially the PCE inflation report) came in line with expectations, leaving markets convinced the Fed will cut rates later this year [30]. Traders now price in about a 90% chance of a 25bp cut in October and 65% in December [31]. Lower rates tend to weaken the US dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. In fact, the dollar index has fallen (around –0.2% on Monday), making greenback-priced metals cheaper for foreign buyers. Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya highlights this interplay: “Silver continues its exponential rise…as trust in the US dollar decreases,” underscoring that currency weakness is fueling bullion demand [32].
At the same time, geopolitical and political factors have boosted safe-haven demand. In Washington, Congress faced a looming funding deadline at month-end. Markets reacted to reports that President Trump would meet Democratic and Republican leaders on Monday to try to avert a US government shutdown (scheduled for Oct. 1 if no agreement is reached) [33]. The uncertainty around a potential shutdown – and the associated risk to economic data releases – has driven investors into gold. As Reuters notes, concerns over a shutdown “are supporting demand for safe haven assets like gold” [34]. Similarly, ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g. Middle East developments, Ukraine war, etc.) keep bullion attractive as a hedge.
In short, the convergence of Fed rate-cut bets, USD weakness, and safety concerns has created a powerful backdrop for precious metals. Market commentators point out that gold “benefits from lower interest rates and thrives during geopolitical and economic uncertainty” [35] – precisely the conditions prevailing in late September 2025.
Industry trends: ETF inflows, central banks and physical demand
Demand-side trends are reinforcing the rally. Global ETF and institutional flows are surging. The SPDR Gold Trust – the world’s largest gold-backed ETF – saw its holdings jump by 0.89% to 1,005.72 tonnes on Friday [36], the highest level in years. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank analysts note that ETF inflows are “playing a pivotal role in gold strength” [37]. Likewise, silver ETFs have drawn strong investment: for instance, Indian mutual funds reported record inflows of ₹17–19 billion ($190–210 million) into silver ETFs in July–August, far above previous norms. (Indeed, local silver futures in India hit an all-time high in mid-September [38].)
Central banks continue to be voracious buyers of gold. The World Gold Council reports that official sector purchases are running at an annualized rate of about 2–3% of reserves, as nations diversify out of fiat currencies [39]. In H1 2025 alone, central banks added roughly 415 tonnes of gold to reserves, including 166 tonnes in Q2 [40]. These sustained net purchases (led by countries like India, China and Turkey) absorb a large chunk of new supply and underpin prices. Vijay Valecha of Century Financial notes that such reserve accumulation – amid “fiscal imbalances and weaponisation of the dollar” – keeps the case for gold very strong [41].
Physical (retail and industrial) demand is also robust. Asian jewelry demand has picked up: for example, Indian gold import premiums have risen to historic highs (up to ~$7/oz over international rates) as investors snap up coins and bars ahead of festivals [42]. Chinese and other Asian buyers have been paying heavier discounts to global prices (spot Beijing gold dealers were offering around $31–$71 discount per ounce on Sep 26) [43], but trading volumes remain high. In essence, local demand is so strong that even near-record prices haven’t dented consumer buying – traders report investors “snapping up coins and bars…hoping the rally keeps going” [44].
All told, the supply/demand picture is supportive: limited new mine output, steady central bank purchases and strong investment flows coexist with booming demand in major markets. This imbalance has helped lift not just gold but its peers: platinum and palladium prices have climbed as industrial users (especially for autocatalysts and electronics) anticipate tighter availability, while silver has benefited from both investment and solar-energy demand. Deutsche Bank observes that official demand and ETF holdings are “pivotal”, with jewelry demand and recycling supplying less relief, reinforcing upward pressure on prices [45].
Analysts’ views and market outlook
Most analysts and strategists are emphatically bullish on precious metals. As noted, UBS’s Giancarlo Staunovo expects gold to push toward $3,900/oz in the months ahead [46]. A recent Deutsche Bank note similarly highlights strong official demand, which implies limited downside. Pepperstone’s Michael Brown concurs that “the bull case for all four [precious metals] remains solid,” calling $4,000 gold and $50 silver “reasonable medium-run targets” [47]. Goldman Sachs strategists have also forecast a move to $4,000/oz by mid-2026, citing robust inflows and tight supply. On the technical side, even though bullion is “strongly overbought,” traders “love to trade the trend,” meaning momentum can carry prices higher [48].
Not all views are extreme: some note the rally’s sheer speed as a potential vulnerability. For example, Gary Wagner of Kitco notes that silver has reclaimed a decade-old threshold (breaching $44/oz) and warns of the lesson from 2011’s sharp collapse after similar peaks. Yet even technical cautioners largely acknowledge that fundamental drivers (Fed cuts, inflation fears, de-dollarization) remain intact. The net outlook is overwhelmingly positive: analysts see few catalysts for a sustained downturn. In fact, many argue that gold’s current advance is reshaping sentiment – transitioning from a sidelined asset to a mainstream safe-haven.
In summary, both short-term and long-term sentiment is strongly bullish. Near-term, traders are pricing in Fed rate cuts, and any delay (e.g. due to a shutdown) might actually reinforce gold’s safe-haven status. Looking farther ahead, factors like sticky global inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and continued reserve diversification argue for further gains. As Century Financial’s Valecha states, in this environment “bullion’s upside bias looks intact,” with gold likely to “sustain record levels and potentially push higher into year-end” [49]. With many banks and funds positioning for higher prices, the precious metals rally appears far from over in both the coming weeks and longer term.
Sources: Recent market reports and analyses from Bloomberg, Reuters, Kitco and other financial news outlets [50] [51] [52] [53] (Sept 28–29, 2025). These include price updates, economic data releases, and commentary from analysts at UBS, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Kitco, and others. Each fact above is supported by these primary sources.
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