As of 7:39 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, Alphabet Inc.’s Class C shares (NASDAQ: GOOG) were trading around $314.96, little changed from the prior close after a quiet, post-Christmas session on Wall Street.
That timing matters: the regular U.S. cash session is over, and trading conditions into year-end can be unusually thin—an environment where headline risk (and even small orders) can move mega-cap stocks more than investors expect.
Below is what’s driving the Google stock narrative right now, what analysts are watching next, and what investors may want to keep on their radar before the next full trading session.
Wall Street’s year-end backdrop: “Santa Claus rally” meets thin liquidity
U.S. stocks finished slightly lower Friday in subdued trading, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,929.94, the Dow at 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq Composite at 23,593.10. [1]
Reuters described the day as a light-volume, post-holiday session that snapped a multi-day winning streak, while still leaving the major indexes higher on the week—right in the middle of the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window (the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next). [2]
Investors also have a macro calendar ahead. Reuters’ “Week Ahead” coverage flagged incoming catalysts ranging from Federal Reserve minutes to Treasury auctions, with market pricing sensitive to the path of rates into 2026.
For GOOG specifically, this broader setup matters because Alphabet has been one of the prominent “AI trade” bellwethers. When the market is calm and liquidity is thin, big tech often drifts. When macro headlines hit, mega-caps can become the first place institutions adjust exposure.
GOOG vs. GOOGL: what Class C stock actually represents
Alphabet has multiple share classes. GOOG (Class C) represents the same underlying economic ownership in Alphabet as GOOGL (Class A), but Class C shares carry no voting rights. In day-to-day trading, the two tickers often move closely together, but liquidity, index flows, and small supply/demand differences can create slight gaps.
For investors, the practical takeaway is simple: GOOG is a way to own Alphabet’s business performance without voting power—a feature some investors don’t care about, and others actively avoid.
The biggest fresh catalyst: Alphabet’s $4.75 billion Intersect acquisition
The most notable recent Alphabet headline is the company’s agreement to acquire Intersect, a data center and energy infrastructure firm, for $4.75 billion in cash plus the assumption of debt. Alphabet said the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary conditions. [3]
Why this deal matters for GOOG stock
The market’s AI narrative has shifted from “who has the best model?” to “who can actually scale compute?”—and scaling compute increasingly means securing reliable power.
Alphabet’s announcement frames Intersect as a way to bring data center and generation capacity online faster, with Intersect remaining under its brand and led by CEO Sheldon Kimber, partnering closely with Google’s technical infrastructure team. [4]
In the release, CEO Sundar Pichai positioned Intersect as enabling Alphabet to expand capacity and “reimagine energy solutions” tied to data center growth—language that underscores how strategic energy access has become for the AI roadmap. [5]
Reuters added more context: Intersect brings projects that are expected to generate 10.8 gigawatts of power by 2028, and the deal comes amid intensifying “AI power infrastructure” spending across Big Tech. [6]
Multiple outlets framed the acquisition as part of a broader scramble to secure energy for hyperscale AI data centers. [7]
Investor lens: The bullish interpretation is that Alphabet is removing a bottleneck to Google Cloud and Gemini scale. The cautious interpretation is that it signals how capital-intensive the next phase of AI competition will be—and why markets are increasingly focused on capex discipline and returns.
Alphabet’s operating picture: strong ads, faster Cloud growth, and rising capex
Alphabet’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) continues to anchor many GOOG forecasts.
Reuters reported that Alphabet beat expectations with $102.35 billion in revenue and $3.10 in adjusted EPS, driven by strength in advertising and cloud demand. [8]
The same Reuters report highlighted a key forward-looking point: Alphabet raised its 2025 capital expenditure outlook again, to $91–$93 billion, as it ramps infrastructure investment tied to AI. [9]
On Cloud, Reuters noted Google Cloud revenue rose 34% year-over-year to $15.16 billion, with an AI-influenced demand story including infrastructure and services (and a reported backlog figure that investors have been watching closely). [10]
Alphabet’s own earnings release also emphasized that consolidated revenue increased 16% year over year to $102.3 billion in Q3 2025. [11]
Why this matters for GOOG right now: The market is rewarding companies that can show (1) durable ad monetization, (2) credible AI product traction, and (3) accelerating cloud profitability. But the price of admission is higher capex—so the stock’s next leg often depends on whether investors believe returns will keep pace.
Capital returns remain a pillar: buybacks and dividends
Even with capex climbing, Alphabet has been returning significant capital to shareholders.
Alphabet’s investor relations materials for its 2025 Q1 earnings call note that the company returned value through $15.1 billion in share repurchases and $2.4 billion in dividend payments in that quarter. [12]
And in its quarterly filing for the period ended September 30, 2025, Alphabet disclosed that in April 2025 the board authorized an additional $70.0 billion for repurchases of Class A and Class C shares, with $74.8 billion remaining available as of September 30, 2025. [13]
Investor lens: In a world where AI investment is soaking up cash, buybacks can act as a stabilizer for mega-cap valuations—especially during slower macro periods—so long as cash generation remains resilient.
Regulatory risk is not fading: U.S. and EU pressure points investors are tracking
Alphabet’s regulatory overhang remains one of the biggest “non-earnings” drivers of GOOG volatility.
1) U.S. search antitrust remedies: shorter default contracts and data-sharing obligations
Reuters reported that Judge Amit Mehta’s remedies ruling in the landmark U.S. search case allowed Google to keep Chrome and continue certain default arrangements, but imposed remedies including data-sharing requirements and constraints designed to open competition. [14]
That same Reuters report included commentary from antitrust expert William Kovacic (George Washington University), who argued the court was choosing remedies more likely to survive appellate scrutiny—an important point because long appeals can delay the market impact of any remedy. [15]
More recently, reporting has emphasized a specific operational change: a federal judge ordered Google to limit default-placement agreements to one-year terms, forcing annual renegotiation of default search and AI app contracts (including major distribution deals). [16]
The U.S. Department of Justice separately described the September 2, 2025 remedies outcome as “significant remedies” aimed at restoring competition in search and search advertising. [17]
2) U.S. ad tech case: breakup risk still on the table
Alphabet also faces high-stakes U.S. antitrust litigation in ad tech. Reuters reported that Judge Leonie Brinkema has been weighing remedies after previously finding illegal monopolies, with the DOJ pushing for Google to sell its ad exchange AdX—a structural remedy Google opposes. [18]
3) EU actions: ad tech fines and DMA compliance threats
In Europe, the European Commission announced a €2.95 billion fine over abusive practices in advertising technology. [19]
Reuters later reported Google proposed changes to its ad tech practices to address EU concerns without divesting parts of the business, after the Commission suggested that conflicts of interest could require stronger action. [20]
On the Digital Markets Act (DMA) front, Reuters reported Google could face a potentially large EU fine in 2026 if regulators conclude it has not made sufficient concessions around Google Play compliance. [21]
Reuters also reported a separate expected EU fine next year tied to alleged self-preferencing concerns in search results compliance. [22]
And the Associated Press reported the EU opened an investigation into Google’s search result practices related to whether content is being unfairly demoted—another potential DMA-related flashpoint. [23]
Investor lens: Markets can often “look through” regulatory headlines—until a remedy becomes concrete, time-bound, and financially material. For GOOG, the risk isn’t only fines; it’s business model constraints (distribution defaults, data access rules, ad tech structural changes) that could reshape how profits scale.
Other upside optionality: Waymo and “Other Bets” back in the spotlight
Alphabet’s “Other Bets” can become relevant to GOOG valuations during periods when investors are willing to price in optionality.
Reuters reported in December that Waymo was in talks with potential investors about raising capital at a valuation of at least $100 billion, with the round potentially exceeding $10 billion and expected to be arranged in 2026. [24]
Reuters has also tracked Waymo’s expansion pace into additional U.S. markets, reflecting accelerating commercialization efforts. [25]
Investor lens: Waymo’s valuation discussions can influence the “sum-of-the-parts” debate around Alphabet—even if the core of GOOG remains Search, YouTube, and Cloud.
GOOG stock forecast: what analysts are signaling right now
Across widely followed analyst-aggregation services, Alphabet’s outlook remains broadly constructive, though targets vary by dataset and coverage universe.
- TradingView’s aggregation for GOOG shows an analyst price target around the mid-$300s, with a wide range between low and high estimates. [26]
- StockAnalysis’ aggregation for Alphabet (often centered on GOOGL) similarly reflects a generally bullish consensus, though its average target can differ from other providers depending on included firms and update cadence. [27]
- Other market trackers also show “Buy/Strong Buy” style consensus ratings and price targets clustered around the low-to-mid $300s. [28]
Meanwhile, GOOG’s valuation multiple remains a frequent talking point: the shares were trading at roughly 23.6x earnings based on the reported PE ratio at the time of this update.
How to read these forecasts: Into 2026, the market is effectively asking three questions about Alphabet:
- Can Google defend and grow ads even as AI changes discovery and ad formats?
- Can Google Cloud keep sustaining AI-driven momentum while improving profitability?
- Will AI capex and energy infrastructure spending (like Intersect) generate returns that justify the investment cycle?
If the exchange is closed: what investors should know before the next session
Even though after-hours trading remains available into the evening, the regular U.S. session is over—and conditions around year-end can be less forgiving than normal.
1) Know the next open and the holiday calendar
U.S. markets were closed for Christmas Day and had an early close on Christmas Eve; the next closure is New Year’s Day (January 1, 2026). [29]
2) Extended-hours trading is real—but liquidity can be thin
Nasdaq notes that after-hours trading runs from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET and can feature less liquidity and wider spreads; it strongly encourages limit orders in extended sessions. [30]
Schwab similarly highlights the mechanics and limitations of extended-hours execution. [31]
3) Headline risk is amplified into Monday’s open
For GOOG, “weekend risk” is not theoretical. Over the next few days, any of the following could influence Monday pricing:
- New developments on EU DMA enforcement or expected fines. [32]
- Updates in U.S. search remedies implementation or appeal framing. [33]
- Progress (or new reporting) in the U.S. ad tech remedies decision process. [34]
- Macro tone shifts (rates, auctions, Fed communication) that can swing mega-cap sentiment quickly.
Bottom line for Alphabet Class C stock (GOOG) into year-end
Alphabet’s Class C stock sits at the center of three converging narratives:
- AI scale is becoming a power-and-infrastructure problem, not just a software problem—making the Intersect deal strategically significant. [35]
- Fundamentals are strong, with ads and Cloud supporting growth—but the market is scrutinizing the cost of AI leadership through capex. [36]
- Regulatory outcomes remain the biggest swing factor, particularly around default distribution contracts, data access, and ad tech structure in the U.S. and EU. [37]
For investors heading into the next session, the playbook is less about guessing a single headline and more about monitoring whether Alphabet’s AI investment cycle continues to translate into measurable Cloud momentum—while legal and regulatory decisions shape the boundaries of its ad and distribution engines.
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References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. abc.xyz, 4. abc.xyz, 5. abc.xyz, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. s206.q4cdn.com, 12. abc.xyz, 13. s206.q4cdn.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.justice.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. ec.europa.eu, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.schwab.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. abc.xyz, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com
