GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL): Latest Price, News, Forecasts & Risk Analysis

Key Takeaways (as of December 6, 2025)

Latest close: NVDL finished Friday, December 5 at $85.34, down 1.22% on the day, with an intraday range of $83.88–$87.49 and volume near 9.9 million shares. ^[1]
Performance: The ETF is up about 33.44% year to date and roughly 19.94% over the past 12 months, but has lagged Nvidia’s own 2025 total return of ~35–36%. ^[2]
Scale & cost: NVDL now manages around $4.3–4.6 billion in assets, with a 1.05% expense ratio and a 52‑week range of $23.12–$118.50. ^[3]
Latest sentiment: Technical and AI-driven services currently describe NVDL as “hold” to “moderate sell”, with short‑term signals skewing cautious but not outright bearish. ^[4]
Regulatory backdrop: The SEC has paused reviews of new highly leveraged ETFs and sent warning letters to nine issuers including GraniteShares, increasing scrutiny around complex leveraged products. ^[5]

Important: This article is for information and education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold NVDL or any other security.

What NVDL Is – and Why It’s So Volatile

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NASDAQ: NVDL) is a single‑stock leveraged ETF that aims to deliver 200% of Nvidia’s daily percentage move, before fees and expenses. ^[6]

Key design features:

Underlying stock: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), the dominant AI GPU supplier.
Target: +2x of NVDA’s daily return, not its long‑term return.
Tools used: Primarily total return equity swaps on NVDA, plus other derivatives and some direct NVDA exposure. ^[7]
Structure:Non‑diversified leveraged equity ETF – essentially a concentrated, derivative-powered bet on one stock. ^[8]

Because NVDL rebalances daily, its long‑term returns can diverge sharply from a simple “2× NVDA” expectation. In volatile markets, this compounding and “volatility drag” can cause the fund to underperform even when NVDA trends higher, a point highlighted repeatedly by analysts and regulators. ^[9]

NVDL Price & Performance Snapshot (December 6, 2025)

From major data providers and the ETF’s own disclosures: ^[10]

Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $85.34
Daily move: –1.22% (–$1.05)
After‑hours quote: ~$85.36 (+0.02)
Day range: $83.88 – $87.49
52‑week range: $23.12 – $118.50
Assets under management: ≈ $4.3–4.6 billion
Shares outstanding: ~53 million
Expense ratio: 1.05%
Category: Trading – Leveraged Equity
Inception date: December 13, 2022

On the performance side:

YTD total return (price + distributions):≈ +33.44%
1‑year total return:≈ +19.94% ^[11]
Since inception: StockAnalysis estimates an average annual total return above 180%, heavily skewed by the spectacular AI rally in 2023–24. ^[12]

By comparison, NVDA itself is up about 35–36% in 2025, with roughly 25–26% total return over the last 12 months – meaning NVDL has not delivered a clean 2× of Nvidia’s performance over multi‑month horizons. ^[13]

Latest News Shaping NVDL Right Now

1. Regulatory Scrutiny: SEC Puts a Ceiling on “Super‑Levered” ETFs

On December 3, 2025, the U.S. SEC paused its review of applications for new highly leveraged ETFs, citing concerns that some proposed products – targeting up to 5× daily leverage – may violate Rule 18f‑4’s value‑at‑risk limits. ^[14]

The SEC’s letters went to nine issuers, including GraniteShares, ProShares, and Direxion, questioning how they measure and manage leverage risk.
The regulator effectively told issuers to revise or withdraw filings for the most complex products.

A day later, on December 4, ProShares withdrew several planned high‑leverage ETFs after receiving such a warning letter. Reuters notes that GraniteShares was also among the firms contacted, underscoring higher regulatory pressure on the leveraged ETF niche. ^[15]

What this means for NVDL:

The SEC’s move is aimed at new, more extreme products (3×–5×), not at existing 2× funds like NVDL.
Still, greater scrutiny around single‑stock leverage increases the headline and regulatory risk of the segment and could shape future rules or capital requirements affecting funds such as NVDL.

2. “ETF Time Bomb” Narrative Spreads to Single‑Stock Products

On December 2, 2025, Benzinga ran a widely shared piece describing how several 2× Bitcoin‑linked ETFs crashed over 80% this year, calling them a “crypto ETF time bomb.” The article warns that traders are now eyeing leveraged single‑stock ETFs tied to Tesla, Nvidia and Amazon with fresh caution. ^[16]

In its watchlist of high‑risk products, the article explicitly includes:

GraniteShares 2x Long single‑stock ETFs (e.g., AMZZ for Amazon)
GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF NVDL, noted trading around the mid‑$80s
Other 2× products on Tesla and MicroStrategy

The core message is not that NVDL is “broken,” but that leverage plus volatility can turn a winning trade into a double‑digit loss very quickly, especially when sentiment flips.

3. Nvidia Headlines: AI Leadership, Synopsys Deal, and Volatility

Because NVDL is glued to NVDA, Nvidia’s own news flow is crucial:

December 1, 2025: Nvidia announced a $2 billion strategic investment in Synopsys, deepening a partnership around AI‑powered chip design tools. Synopsys shares jumped, but NVDA slipped that day amid broader tech pressure, even as the stock remained up about 32% for 2025 at that point. ^[17]
December 2, 2025: Nvidia CFO Colette Kress, in an Axios interview, pushed back on claims that the company is losing its AI lead, noting that Nvidia’s platform still dominates and dismissing talk of an “AI bubble.” NVDA, however, has fallen more than 11% over the last month despite being up strongly for the year. ^[18]

These headlines feed directly into NVDL’s daily moves: when Nvidia’s AI narrative is questioned or its stock consolidates after huge gains, NVDL’s 2× leverage magnifies that downside.

4. 2025 Volatility Timeline: DeepSeek Shock and Leveraged ETF Whiplash

Back in late January 2025, the launch of Chinese chatbot DeepSeek triggered a dramatic sell‑off in AI names:

NVDA plunged around 17% in a single session, contributing to one of the biggest single‑day market‑cap losses in history. ^[19]
NVDL and other Nvidia‑linked leveraged ETFs dropped roughly 34–36% in that same window, according to Reuters and Spanish financial daily Cinco Días. ^[20]

Yet, on January 28, 2025, Reuters reported that speculators poured back into NVDL and peers, betting on a rapid Nvidia rebound:

GraniteShares’ CEO said NVDL alone saw about $1 billion of inflows, even as its assets fell from over $6 billion to about $4.3 billion due to price declines. ^[21]

These episodes highlight what 2025 has taught about NVDL:

Intraday and short‑term swings can be brutal.
Investor flows can remain strong even after large drawdowns, as traders treat NVDL as a high‑octane NVDA trading vehicle, not a long‑term holding.

Fresh Analyses, Technical Signals and AI‑Driven Forecasts

1. Fundamental & Strategy Analysis: “Better Safe Than Sorry”

A new Seeking Alpha article titled “NVDL: Better Safe Than Sorry” (via StockAnalysis’s news feed) takes a cautious view: ^[22]

Main points (paraphrased):

NVDL does deliver 2× daily exposure to NVDA, but its long‑term performance has underwhelmed many traders given Nvidia’s huge rally.
The author notes that NVDL’s YTD gain (~25–33%) trails NVDA’s ~33–36%, attributing the gap to:
- Compounding slippage in choppy markets
- The 1.05% expense ratio
- Path‑dependent effects of daily rebalancing
They stress that losses can exceed 90% in extreme drawdowns, making recovery almost impossible without massive subsequent rallies in NVDA.

The conclusion: NVDL is seen as a tactical trading tool, not a core long‑term holding – an opinion broadly echoed by previous research on single‑stock leveraged ETFs. ^[23]

2. StockInvest.us: “Hold / Accumulate” with High Short‑Term Volatility

Technical service StockInvest.us updated its NVDL analysis on December 5: ^[24]

Classifies NVDL as a “hold candidate (hold or accumulate)”, not a strong buy.
Notes:
- Latest close: $85.34, down 1.22%.
- 14‑day average volatility around 5.4% per day.
- ETF sits in the lower part of a broad but weak rising trend.
Short‑term outlook:
- Projects about 3.73% upside over the next 3 months, with a 90% confidence range of roughly $83.52–$118.98.
- Identifies support near $84.63 and resistance around $89.61 based on accumulated volume.

They emphasize that while some signals are positive (pivot‑bottom buy signal, short‑term moving average support), the long‑term moving average is still above the short‑term, giving a more negative overall bias.

3. StockScan: Near‑Term Bearish, Long‑Term Ambitious but Wild

On StockScan, NVDL’s latest AI‑driven forecast paints a mixed picture: ^[25]

30‑day view:
- Average target: $77.61 (about –9% vs. $85.34)
- Range: $70.58 – $84.64
- Overall short‑term stance: “Moderate Sell”, based on 17 indicators (4 Buy, 8 Sell, 5 Neutral).
12‑month view:
- Average target:$145.82 – implying ~71% upside from current levels.
- Extreme scenarios range from roughly $10.64 to $281.01, underscoring massive uncertainty.
Longer term (2027–2030):
- The model shows lofty average prices in some years but also assigns non‑trivial probabilities to near‑zero prices, especially in highly volatile months – a mathematical reflection of how leverage can magnify both upside and downside.

StockScan itself cautions that these forecasts are not financial advice, but rather statistical extrapolations based on historic volatility and technical patterns.

4. Tickeron & Investing.com: Mixed Technical Signals

AI‑driven platform Tickeron currently highlights several bearish technical developments for NVDL: ^[26]

The MACD histogram turned negative on November 6, often seen as a potential trend‑reversal warning.
NVDL fell below its 50‑day moving average on November 17, with the 10‑day MA crossing below the 50‑day on November 21.
On December 5, the Aroon indicator entered a downward trend, which Tickeron interprets as raising the odds of a continued decline.

At the same time, they note countervailing bullish hints:

The momentum indicator recently moved above zero, and
The Stochastic oscillator exited oversold territory, historically associated with a higher chance of rebounds.

Meanwhile, Investing.com’s technical summary early on December 6 shows: ^[27]

Overall rating: Neutral
Indicative readings:
- RSI(14): ~53 (neither overbought nor oversold)
- MACD: in a mild Buy configuration
- A mix of 3 Buy, 4 Neutral, 3 Sell signals across major oscillators and moving averages.

Net‑net, short‑term technical sentiment is cautious but not decisively bearish, with different models disagreeing on whether NVDL’s next big move is up or down.

5. Very Short‑Term Trading Expectations

For Monday, December 8, StockInvest’s volatility‑based model expects: ^[28]

Estimated open: about $85.58
Intraday trading interval: roughly $81.98–$88.70
Implied potential 8.2% swing between daily low and high.

Their system views the current risk/reward as “attractive” for intraday traders given closeness to support – but still categorizes NVDL as a hold/accumulate, not an outright buy.

How NVDL Behaves vs. Nvidia Stock

For context, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain extremely strong:

Fiscal 2025 revenue: about $130.5 billion, up 114% year-over-year.
GAAP EPS for the year more than doubled as AI data center demand exploded. ^[29]
Total return in 2025 so far sits around 35–36%, after a massive 171% in 2024 and 239% in 2023. ^[30]

Yet, NVDL’s 2025 return (~33%) has lagged this, which surprises some investors who expect a simple 2× relationship. This divergence underscores three structural realities:

Daily reset & path dependence:
- NVDL rebalances each day; it does not compound exactly 2× over weeks or months.
- Sharp down days (like the DeepSeek episode) followed by choppy recoveries can erode long‑term performance.
Volatility drag:
- In volatile side‑ways markets, leveraged products tend to lose value over time even if the underlying finishes flat.
Fees & derivative costs:
- The 1.05% annual expense ratio, plus the implicit costs of swaps and other derivatives, gradually eat into returns. ^[31]

This is why Morningstar, ETF research shops and many analysts repeatedly say single‑stock leveraged ETFs are designed for short‑term tactical traders, not for “buy‑and‑forget” investing. ^[32]

Key Risks for NVDL Investors to Understand

If you follow or trade NVDL, the latest news flow reinforces several long‑standing risks:

Leverage & Compounding Risk
- 2× daily leverage means both gains and losses are magnified every day.
- Historical episodes show that single‑day drops above 30% are possible, and longer drawdowns can exceed 70–90% in extreme scenarios. ^[33]
Single‑Stock Concentration
- Unlike diversified sector or index ETFs, NVDL’s fate is tied almost entirely to Nvidia.
- Any shock to NVDA – regulatory, competitive (e.g., rival AI chips), or macro – transmits directly and magnified into NVDL.
Derivatives & Counterparty Risk
- NVDL gets most of its exposure via equity swaps on NVDA, not simply by holding the stock. ^[34]
- This introduces counterparty and liquidity risks that plain‑vanilla ETFs typically don’t face in the same way.
Regulatory & Policy Risk
- The SEC’s recent letters and review freeze highlight rising concern over leverage complexity. ^[35]
- While existing 2× products are still trading normally, rule changes or stricter interpretations could affect how funds like NVDL operate in the future.
Behavioral Risk
- Media narratives such as “ETF time bomb” and “Squid Game market” emphasize that many retail traders treat leveraged ETFs as lottery tickets rather than risk‑managed tools. ^[36]
- Using NVDL without a clear timeframe, exit plan, or risk limit can be dangerous.

Who Typically Uses NVDL?

NVDL tends to be used by:

Active traders and day‑traders who want amplified short‑term exposure to Nvidia’s moves without using margin or options directly.
Tactical NVDA bulls who pair NVDL with options (e.g., selling calls on NVDY or NVDA itself) to pursue complex AI‑themed strategies. ^[37]
Sophisticated investors running short‑term overlays or hedges around Nvidia earnings, product launches, or macro events.

Most research shops and regulators, however, stress that long‑term investors seeking broad AI exposure are usually better served by diversified ETFs or direct NVDA shares, and should treat leveraged single‑stock ETFs like NVDL as specialised trading instruments, not portfolio cores. ^[38]

Bottom Line: NVDL Today

As of December 6, 2025, GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) remains:

One of the largest and most actively traded Nvidia leveraged ETFs,
Positioned squarely at the crossroads of AI optimism, retail speculation, and tightening regulatory scrutiny,
Backed by strong Nvidia fundamentals, yet showing how leverage and volatility can blunt or even reverse the expected payoff from a hot underlying stock.

Short‑term models and fresh analysis lean cautious to neutral, not outright bullish or bearish. But the common thread across Seeking Alpha, StockInvest, StockScan, Tickeron, Morningstar and regulators is clear:

NVDL is a powerful but high‑risk tool for traders who deeply understand leveraged products, not a simple way to “double your Nvidia” for the long haul.

If you’re considering trading NVDL, it’s essential to:

Understand how daily rebalancing works,
Size positions prudently,
Use stop‑losses or risk limits, and
Consider consulting a qualified financial professional before taking leveraged single‑stock exposure.

References

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL): Latest Price, News, Forecasts & Risk Analysis – December 6, 2025