NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 7:21 p.m. ET — Market closed
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock is heading into the next U.S. session with investors focused on two forces pulling the name in opposite directions: improving operating signals and bullish sell-side initiations on one side, and headline-driven regulatory risk around its U.S.–Mexico partnership framework on the other.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, Aeroméxico’s NYSE-listed American Depositary Shares (ADS) last ended Friday’s session at $22.91, up about 3.3% on the day, according to market data compiled by StockAnalysis. [1]
Weekend setup: where AERO stock stands now
Aeroméxico (NYSE: AERO) has traded with notable momentum since its return to public markets. Data shown by StockAnalysis puts the stock’s 52-week range at $16.00 to $23.05 and Friday’s session range at $22.18 to $23.05, underscoring how close the shares are to recent highs. [2]
In the most recent “headline window” (roughly the last 24–48 hours), the most visible stock-specific item was a MarketBeat wire-style alert dated Dec. 25 noting AERO set a new 12‑month high during that session, alongside a recap of the wave of Wall Street initiations that followed the post-IPO quiet-period expiration. [3]
What investors are still digesting from Aeroméxico’s NYSE return
Aeroméxico’s U.S. listing is still fresh enough that the “IPO afterglow” remains part of the story. Reuters reported that the airline’s NYSE debut on Nov. 6, 2025 valued the company around $2.8 billion, with the company and selling shareholders raising roughly $222.8 million by selling 11.7 million ADS. [4]
Structurally, the stock is traded in ADS form in the U.S. An SEC Form 8‑A filing states that Aeroméxico’s ADS each represent 10 common shares. [5]
For investors watching both sides of the border, Aeroméxico’s own operational releases also reference its dual presence, using the identifiers “NYSE: AERO & BMV: AERO.” [6]
The freshest company fundamentals: traffic and profitability signals
While there have not been brand-new company press releases in the last couple of days (the most recent operational update is earlier in December), the latest disclosed operating datapoints continue to anchor the bull case.
In its November 2025 traffic results release, Aeroméxico reported 1.995 million passengers for the month (down 2.0% year over year), capacity (ASMs) down 4.0%, and demand (RPMs) down 1.5% year over year. Importantly for airline investors, Aeroméxico reported a November load factor of 87.5%, up 2.3 percentage points versus the prior year period. [7]
CEO Andrés Conesa framed the data as a directional improvement, citing “continued sequential improvement” and pointing to stronger demand as the carrier moved toward year-end. [8]
The company’s most recent quarterly snapshot also signaled profitability and balance-sheet progress. In its third quarter 2025 results, Aeroméxico reported total revenue of $1.4 billion, an adjusted EBITDAR margin of 31%, an operating margin of 18%, and adjusted net debt to EBITDAR of 1.9x, while also introducing 4Q25 and full-year 2025 guidance. [9]
Analyst forecasts: consensus view and the price-target map
As the market heads into the next session, Aeroméxico’s near-term tape may still be reacting to the burst of coverage initiations that hit in mid-December.
MarketBeat’s analyst summary shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average 12‑month price target of $30, with published targets ranging from $25 to $36. [10]
Notably, MarketBeat attributes specific initiations (and analyst names) to several large firms, including: [11]
- Evercore ISI (Duane Pfennigwerth): Outperform, $36 target
- Goldman Sachs (Bruno Amorim): Buy, $35 target
- Morgan Stanley (Jens Spiess): Overweight, $30 target
- Barclays (Pablo Monsivais): Overweight, $27 target
- Deutsche Bank (Michael Linenberg): Buy, $25 target
Those targets matter because AERO is still early in its public-market price discovery. The details of “why” behind the ratings are also instructive:
- Morgan Stanley’s thesis (Dec. 17): The firm argued Aeroméxico is positioned as Mexico’s “only legacy carrier,” potentially benefiting from “premiumization” trends. Morgan Stanley also highlighted limited route overlap with low-cost competitors and referenced $140 million in lease-related savings as part of the post-restructuring cost story. [12]
- JPMorgan’s thesis (Dec. 17): JPMorgan initiated with an Overweight rating and a $28.50 target, pointing to valuation metrics (including 2026 EV/EBITDAR comparisons versus peers) and projecting net debt/EBITDAR of ~1.8x by 2026, while also noting it preferred other LATAM airline exposures within coverage. [13]
- Barclays’ framing (Dec. 17): Barclays characterized the equity as a “Mexico City play,” emphasizing capacity constraints at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) and Aeroméxico’s restructured cost base as drivers of sustainable cash generation. [14]
- Barclays analyst color (via The Fly/TipRanks): TipRanks’ repost of The Fly explicitly names Pablo Monsivais and highlights the view that Aeroméxico’s “strong slot position” and “leaner” cost structure could support “robust” cash flow. [15]
- Goldman Sachs angle (Dec. 17): Investing.com’s recap of Goldman’s initiation cited valuation comparisons and cash-flow expectations (including discussion of 2026–2027 free cash flow yield and EV/EBITDA framing), while also flagging that a relatively limited listed float can shape volatility early in a newly listed stock’s life. [16]
The risk investors keep circling: Delta JV and U.S.–Mexico aviation scrutiny
The biggest non-fuel, non-demand variable in Aeroméxico’s equity narrative is regulatory.
Aeroméxico disclosed that on Nov. 12, 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit granted a stay requested by Aeroméxico and Delta Air Lines related to a U.S. Department of Transportation final order that would have terminated antitrust immunity and withdrawn prior approval for the carriers’ Joint Cooperation Agreement—an action that otherwise would have become effective Jan. 1, 2026. [17]
When Aeroméxico went public in the U.S., Reuters also highlighted this regulatory overhang, quoting Lukas Muehlbauer, a research analyst at IPOX, warning the dispute could weigh on the stock until resolved because it could disrupt important U.S. routes and revenue streams. [18]
What investors should know before the next session opens
Because AERO is still a young NYSE listing, investors going into Monday’s session may want to focus on practical “setup” issues as much as longer-term valuation arguments:
- Expect sensitivity to headlines and thin-liquidity moves. Early post-IPO trading can exaggerate reactions—especially around sector news, regulatory filings, or analyst notes (positive or negative). The recent burst of initiations has been a major sentiment driver. [19]
- Watch the Delta partnership timeline closely. The Eleventh Circuit stay reduces immediate cliff-risk versus the Jan. 1 effective date, but the issue remains a live catalyst—and one that can move the stock on incremental court or DOT developments. [20]
- Track operating updates and guidance confirmation. The latest traffic release showed higher load factor despite year-over-year softness in passengers/capacity, and management indicated a constructive setup for the fourth quarter. Investors will be watching for confirmation in subsequent traffic updates and results reporting. [21]
- Know the calendar for U.S. trading hours into year-end. U.S. equities are closed today because it’s the weekend; the next regular session is expected to follow normal hours. For the broader holiday picture, Nasdaq’s published 2025 schedule shows the Christmas closure (Dec. 25) and the next closure on Jan. 1, 2026. [22]
- Use orders that match the stock’s current profile. With the stock close to its recent highs, some investors prefer limit orders and predefined risk levels rather than chasing breakouts—particularly in names that can gap on news.
Bottom line
Going into Monday, Grupo Aeroméxico stock (NYSE: AERO) sits in a momentum-friendly position—supported by improving load-factor trends, strong profitability metrics disclosed in its latest quarter, and a cluster of recent “Buy/Overweight/Outperform” initiations that put the Street’s average target above the current price. [23]
At the same time, Aeroméxico’s valuation case is unlikely to decouple from regulatory headlines around the Delta joint cooperation agreement and broader U.S.–Mexico aviation policy scrutiny—making this a stock where weekend calm can quickly give way to Monday volatility if news breaks. [24]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.globenewswire.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. www.reuters.com
