NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 11:12 ET — Market closed
- GWRE slid sharply on the first trading day of 2026, leaving the stock on watch for a technical reset into Monday.
- Investors are still digesting Guidewire’s raised fiscal-year outlook from December, with ARR and cloud momentum in focus.
- The next catalysts include U.S. jobs and inflation data this week and Guidewire’s next earnings window in early March.
Guidewire Software, Inc. shares closed down 6.7% on Friday at $187.63 and last traded around $189 in after-hours activity.
That drop pushed GWRE well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — roughly $215 and $220 — levels derived from past prices that many traders use as trend markers. Its 14-day relative strength index, a momentum gauge, sat near 30, a reading often associated with “oversold” conditions.
The move came as U.S. stocks ended mixed and Treasury yields climbed in a session marked by uneven participation after the New Year’s holiday. “Today is kind of a holiday trading day, lighter volumes,” said Jed Ellerbroek, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital in St. Louis. 1
Guidewire traded between $187.54 and $200.92 on Friday, with about 806,660 shares changing hands. The company’s market capitalization is about $16 billion and the stock is in a 52-week range of roughly $165 to $273, according to Public.com data.
Company-specific news was limited in the past two days, leaving investors anchored to the last formal update on Dec. 3, when Guidewire reported first-quarter revenue of $332.6 million, up 27%, and annual recurring revenue (ARR) — a measure of subscription value under contract — of $1.063 billion. It forecast second-quarter revenue of $339 million to $345 million and guided to fiscal 2026 ending ARR of $1.220 billion to $1.230 billion.
Guidewire sells core systems software used by property-and-casualty insurers to run policy administration, billing and claims, and it has been pushing customers toward cloud subscriptions. That shift can make quarter-to-quarter results sensitive to the timing of large customer decisions and implementation schedules.
Sell-side analysts remain broadly constructive despite the recent pullback. StockAnalysis.com shows a “Buy” consensus and an average price target of $271.69, though targets span from $160 to $305.
Guidewire competes with a mix of vertical insurance-technology vendors and in-house development at large insurers, with deal cycles often tied to multi-year modernization programs. For traders, the stock’s break below long-term averages means it can start to trade more like a sentiment barometer than a fundamentals story in the short run.
But the downside scenario is straightforward: if cloud migrations slow, or if insurers take longer to sign and expand contracts, ARR growth and margin leverage can disappoint in a stock that still screens expensive on traditional earnings measures. Rising long-end yields can also keep pressure on software valuations.
