Hawaiian Electric Industries (NYSE: HE) stock is back in the spotlight on December 19, 2025, as investors weigh two forces pulling in opposite directions: a still-unfinished Maui wildfire litigation settlement process (and the financing that goes with it) versus improving trading momentum and a fresh tailwind from index inclusion.
As of Friday, Dec. 19, HE shares traded around $11.66, down roughly 4% on the session, highlighting how jumpy sentiment remains around every legal and financing headline.
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts, and analysis shaping Hawaiian Electric Industries stock today—plus the concrete dates investors are circling on calendars.
Why Hawaiian Electric Industries stock is moving now
1) Jefferies holds its rating as settlement mechanics come into focus
A key “today” development for HE stock: Jefferies reiterated a Hold rating while keeping its focus squarely on the settlement path and the company’s ability to fund upcoming obligations without destabilizing the balance sheet. [1]
In Jefferies’ view, the litigation process has progressed meaningfully—highlighting a court approval and “good-faith” settlement determination on Dec. 17, 2025—but the remaining steps still matter because they control when money actually moves. [2]
Jefferies also points to the practical reality investors care about: cash timing. In the firm’s analysis, HEI’s settlement obligation is structured around payments that won’t begin until at least early 2026, with financing actions potentially required along the way. [3]
2) Settlement checks are still not going out—and the court calendar is the bottleneck
Local reporting this week underscored the core investor issue: Maui wildfire survivors won’t receive settlement payments before the end of 2025, because insurers continue to challenge aspects of the settlement framework and the process is still moving through the Hawaiʻi Supreme Court. [4]
That matters for HE stock because the settlement is not just a headline—it’s a scheduling mechanism. When legal challenges keep payments on hold, the market starts gaming out second-order effects: liquidity buffers, incremental debt or equity issuance, rating agency reactions, and regulator posture.
The big picture: what the Maui wildfire settlement means for HE stock
HEI’s share of the global deal: $1.99 billion (pre-tax)
Hawaiian Electric previously disclosed that the proposed global settlement framework to resolve Maui wildfire tort claims involved over $4 billion collectively among defendants, and that HEI and Hawaiian Electric’s contribution is $1.99 billion (pre-tax), including $75 million previously contributed for the One ʻOhana Initiative. [5]
That $1.99 billion figure is the load-bearing beam under almost every valuation model for HE right now: it influences leverage assumptions, future rate-case negotiations, and how investors think about “normalized” earnings power once the legal cloud clears.
The class settlement also has near-term deadlines
Separate from the global tort framework, the Maui fires class settlement has its own timeline. The court-authorized settlement site states that if a class member doesn’t submit a claim by December 22, 2025, they won’t receive benefits from the class settlement fund (unless they excluded themselves). [6]
Local coverage has also emphasized that attorneys discussed the class-action piece in court, with roughly $135 million set aside for that group claim and a Dec. 22 deadline mentioned in court reporting. [7]
Why this matters for investors: each procedural milestone (claims, approvals, appeals) changes the probability distribution of “how smooth” the payment path will be—exactly the kind of uncertainty markets dislike.
A separate catalyst: HE is joining the S&P SmallCap 600
While legal uncertainty is the long-running narrative, index mechanics have provided a more recent jolt.
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on December 5, 2025 that Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) is slated for addition to the S&P SmallCap 600, effective prior to the open on December 22, 2025. [8]
Index inclusion can matter even when nothing fundamental changes, because it can:
- increase visibility to institutions,
- trigger buying from index-tracking funds,
- lift liquidity (tighter spreads, more consistent volume).
But it cuts both ways: if index buying drove some of the recent strength, the market sometimes gets a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” wobble around the effective date—especially in a stock where uncertainty remains high.
Operations update: clean energy buildout continues despite the legal overhang
It’s easy for the market to see HE as “a settlement stock.” But it is still a regulated utility holding company, with real infrastructure decisions underway.
On December 17, 2025, Hawaiian Electric announced it will begin construction in January on Maui’s first large standalone load-shifting battery energy storage system (BESS)—the Waena BESS, sized at 40 MW / 160 MWh. The company said the project was approved by the Public Utilities Commission in December 2023, is expected to come online by 2027, and is tied to the planned retirement of four generating units at the Kahului Power Plant. [9]
The company also framed the project inside Hawaii’s longer arc: a goal to reach 100% renewable energy by 2045, and noted that 41% of Maui County’s electricity currently comes from renewables. [10]
For investors, these kinds of projects feed directly into the regulated utility playbook: capital investment → rate base growth → allowed return (assuming regulators cooperate). The question is how much of that normal utility math is distorted by wildfire mitigation costs and settlement financing.
Financial snapshot: what HEI reported most recently
In its third-quarter 2025 report (released Nov. 7, 2025), Hawaiian Electric Industries reported:
- Net income of $31 million, or $0.18 per share (diluted) for the quarter.
- Core income from continuing operations of $33 million, or $0.19 per share, excluding Maui wildfire-related expenses and strategic review expenses tied to Pacific Current. [11]
HEI also reported total revenues of $790.6 million in Q3 2025 (with electric utility revenues of about $787.4 million). [12]
On liquidity, HEI highlighted two notable moves:
- Expansion of credit facility capacity to $600 million (from $375 million).
- Roughly $500 million in debt issuance proceeds, described as helping enhance liquidity and financial flexibility. [13]
And crucially for today’s story, management reiterated a baseline expectation: the first settlement payment would occur no earlier than the first quarter of 2026. [14]
Also worth remembering what HEI actually is: HEI’s electric utility supplies power to roughly 95% of Hawaiʻi’s population, and the company has positioned its grid modernization and wildfire safety strategy as central to its forward plan. [15]
Forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is implying on Dec. 19, 2025
The consensus view is still essentially “Hold”
Despite improved trading in 2025, the sell-side picture remains cautious.
MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot lists an average recommendation of Hold and an average target price around $11.00 (as of 12/2025 on that page). [16]
Other market compilers tell a similar story:
- StockAnalysis shows a Hold consensus with targets ranging roughly $10 to $12.50 and an average around $11.5. [17]
- MarketBeat also characterizes coverage as a Hold-leaning consensus and lists an average target near $12.13 based on the brokers it tracks. [18]
None of these are guarantees, of course—they’re best read as a public proxy for how analysts are pricing the settlement risk versus the utility’s normalized earnings.
Model-driven forecasts show modest growth—if the path clears
Simply Wall St’s forecast page (model-based) projects:
- earnings growth around 9.9% per year,
- revenue growth around 4.2% per year,
- and a forecast return on equity around 6% in three years (notably low versus what many utilities aim for). [19]
Meanwhile, their broader dashboard emphasizes how unusual HE’s recent history has been: a sharp multi-year drawdown followed by a partial rebound, with the stock still far below pre-wildfire levels over longer horizons. [20]
Technical and momentum read: what traders are watching
Investor’s Business Daily noted on Dec. 18, 2025 that Hawaiian Electric Industries received a Relative Strength (RS) Rating upgrade from 61 to 71 and described the stock as forming a consolidation pattern with a buy point at $13.41. [21]
That’s a trading-oriented lens—not a fundamental one—but it helps explain why HE has been attracting attention beyond just “lawsuit headlines.”
What investors should watch next: the dates that matter
If you only keep one mental model for HE stock, make it this: calendar risk is price risk right now.
Key dates and windows highlighted in current reporting and official settlement materials include:
- December 22, 2025: deadline referenced for the Maui fires class settlement claims process. [22]
- December 22, 2025: effective date (prior to market open) for HE’s planned addition to the S&P SmallCap 600, per S&P Dow Jones Indices. [23]
- January 8, 2026: final approval hearing date widely cited for the class settlement process. [24]
- January 27, 2026: Hawaiʻi Supreme Court arguments date referenced in local reporting related to insurer challenges. [25]
- Q1 2026 (earliest): HEI management’s base case for when the first settlement payment would occur. [26]
And from the Jefferies note summarized today, investors are also watching regulatory and capex milestones, including a February 6 rebasing-related deadline and higher expected 2026 capex, as part of the broader “can the utility finance safety + clean energy + settlement” question. [27]
Bottom line for Hawaiian Electric Industries stock on Dec. 19, 2025
HE stock in late 2025 is a collision of three narratives:
- Litigation and financing reality: settlement progress is real, but timing is still constrained by insurer challenges and court processes. [28]
- Utility fundamentals returning to something like normal: recent profitability and liquidity moves have helped stabilize the story, at least relative to the post-2023 panic period. [29]
- Market mechanics and momentum: S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion can pull in passive flows and improve liquidity, but it doesn’t erase the settlement math. [30]
For long-term investors, HE remains less like a sleepy regulated utility and more like a regulated utility wearing a lawsuit-shaped backpack full of bricks. The weight may be getting redistributed—but it hasn’t vanished.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.hawaiinewsnow.com, 5. www.hawaiianelectric.com, 6. www.mauifiresclasssettlement.com, 7. www.hawaiinewsnow.com, 8. press.spglobal.com, 9. www.hawaiianelectric.com, 10. www.hawaiianelectric.com, 11. www.hei.com, 12. www.hei.com, 13. www.hei.com, 14. www.hei.com, 15. www.hei.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.mauifiresclasssettlement.com, 23. press.spglobal.com, 24. www.claimdepot.com, 25. www.hawaiinewsnow.com, 26. www.hei.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.hawaiinewsnow.com, 29. www.hei.com, 30. press.spglobal.com
