New York, Jan 28, 2026, 14:48 (EST) — Regular session
- HCA shares dropped almost 3% following a rally sparked by earnings just a day earlier
- The company set 2026 EPS guidance between $29.10 and $31.50 and approved a new $10 billion share repurchase program
- Investors are balancing cost-cutting strategies with the risks of changing demand and shifts in payer mix linked to ACA coverage
Shares of HCA Healthcare, Inc. dropped 2.8% to $491.72 in Wednesday afternoon trading, trimming some of the previous session’s gains. The stock ranged from $480.47 to $503.00.
The decline is significant given HCA’s 2026 outlook arrives amid ongoing disputes between Washington and insurers over coverage and reimbursement, issues hospitals quickly feel. Traders are also probing whether Tuesday’s upbeat sentiment was driven more by capital return prospects or the fundamental demand outlook.
HCA ranks among the largest hospital operators in the U.S., with its earnings frequently seen as a barometer for the wider hospital sector. The immediate focus: can patient volumes and pricing stay steady amid shifts in coverage affecting emergency rooms and elective procedures?
On Tuesday, HCA reported fourth-quarter revenue climbed 6.7% to $19.513 billion, while net income attributable to shareholders jumped 30.6% to $1.878 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings hit $8.01 per share. Adjusted EBITDA — a stand-in for operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — grew 10.8% to $4.114 billion. Same-facility admissions saw a 2.4% rise. The company projects 2026 revenue between $76.5 billion and $80.0 billion, with EPS expected in the range of $29.10 to $31.50. Its board also greenlit a fresh $10 billion share buyback program, open-ended, and boosted the quarterly dividend to 78 cents per share. CEO Sam Hazen said, “We finished 2025 with strong performance consistent with previous quarters.” (HCA Healthcare Investor Relations)
Reuters reported that the company plans to offset the end of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies—Obamacare—with around $400 million in cost savings, driven by analytics, automation, and other initiatives. CFO Mike Marks told investors HCA expects about a 30% decline in utilization among those losing exchange coverage, noting the strategy also involves “better capacity management.” The report highlighted revenue coming in below Wall Street’s expectations, but adjusted profit exceeding estimates, which helped lift the stock 11% on Tuesday. (Reuters)
Analysts are already dissecting the assumptions behind the company’s guidance. Joanna Gajuk, an analyst at BofA Securities, bumped her price target to $540 from $485 but held onto a Neutral rating. She pointed out that the outlook factors in $600 million to $900 million in exchange-related headwinds, plus $250 million to $450 million tied to state Medicaid supplemental directed payment programs. These are partially offset by roughly $400 million in planned savings from HCA’s resiliency program. (Investing)
Investors are shifting focus away from the headline EPS range and zeroing in on the bridge behind those numbers. If HCA manages to cut costs swiftly and maintain steady throughput, the buyback calculations become more straightforward. If they don’t, the stock could keep swinging wildly on each new volume update.
The clear danger is that exchange attrition outpaces management’s projections, resulting in more uninsured patients and rising uncompensated care. If that happens, cost savings could be delayed, turning expected capital returns from a boost into uncertainty.
Shareholders should note the upcoming dividend date: the SEC filing confirmed a 78-cent quarterly dividend, payable on March 31 to those recorded as shareholders by March 17. (Sec)
