New York, Jan 12, 2026, 15:31 EST — Regular session
- Shares dropped roughly 10% following HealthEquity’s release of its initial fiscal 2027 targets.
- The company projected revenue could reach as much as $1.41 billion in 2027, while standing by its earlier guidance for 2026.
- Executives will take the stage at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Tuesday.
Shares of HealthEquity dropped roughly 10% in Monday afternoon trading following the benefits administrator’s cautious initial fiscal 2027 outlook. The stock last traded down $9.53 at $84.62, hitting a session low around $84.51.
This move is significant since HealthEquity’s longer-term targets often set the valuation benchmark for HSA custodians, whose earnings can fluctuate with interest rates and cash yields. Investors have a tight window to process this: the company is slated to present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Tuesday.
Traders are locked in on the 2026 trajectory for U.S. interest rates, a crucial factor behind HealthEquity’s “HSA cash yield” forecast — the return it anticipates from members’ cash balances parked with its banking partners. If yields slip lower, that boost could weaken.
HealthEquity projected fiscal 2027 revenue between $1.38 billion and $1.41 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin ranging from 43.8% to 44.3%, and an HSA cash yield near 3.75%. The company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance. CEO Scott Cutler said the forecast “reflect[s] the progress we’ve made strengthening HealthEquity’s foundation” and described healthcare affordability as “a structural challenge.” (Nasdaq)
The high end of the revenue forecast hit the $1.41 billion mark predicted by FactSet, though the low end fell short. That leaves little wiggle room if account growth or custodial yields take a hit. (MarketScreener)
Adjusted EBITDA, a favored metric, reflects operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, while leaving out certain items. Investors frequently rely on it to gauge margins across software-like service businesses.
HealthEquity’s cash yield figure is set to grab the spotlight. It serves as a quick gauge of the company’s expected returns on HSA cash, influenced by policy rates and the flow between cash and investment balances.
The company announced that Cutler, founder Steve Neeleman, and CFO James Lucania will speak at the J.P. Morgan conference at 3:00 p.m. Pacific on Tuesday. A webcast will be available on its investor relations site. This session offers investors their next look at how the 2027 bridge is structured — and the assumptions behind the yield projections.
The big question: can HealthEquity keep growing engagement and new accounts without sacrificing pricing or margins, even as it invests in tech and security? Details on account growth, assets, and client retention might influence the stock more than the revenue guidance itself.
The downside is straightforward: if rates drop quicker than the company’s yield forecasts suggest, custodial revenue could take a hit, squeezing the stock’s multiple even if headline account growth stays steady. A soft benefits enrollment season would only add to the strain.
Investors are set to scrutinize Tuesday’s conference remarks for shifts in tone on fiscal 2026 through year-end, as well as specifics on what must align for HealthEquity to reach the high mark of its 2027 goals.
