Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on Friday, December 26, 2025, Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) is back on many investors’ radar after a powerful 2025 run, a fresh S&P MidCap 400 inclusion, and a steady stream of operational and exploration updates. With the market reopening after Christmas Day (Dec. 25) closure and following an early close on Dec. 24, traders should also be prepared for thinner liquidity and sharper moves than usual. [1]
As of the most recent available quote from the shortened Dec. 24 session, HL traded around $19.83, leaving it near the upper end of its 52-week range and not far from recent highs. [2]
Below is what matters most before the bell.
Why Hecla Mining stock is in focus heading into Dec. 26
Hecla has multiple attention-drivers converging at once:
- Index demand and visibility: Hecla joined the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the open on Dec. 22, 2025, which can increase passive fund ownership and liquidity over time. [3]
- Record financial results (most recently reported quarter): Hecla reported record quarterly revenue, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2025, alongside a sharply improved leverage position. [4]
- Permitting and exploration catalysts: Recent updates include federal approval for a Nevada exploration program and high-grade discovery news at Midas, plus continued near-mine exploration at key assets. [5]
These are the kinds of overlapping fundamentals-and-flow stories that can keep a stock active even during the seasonally quiet last week of the year.
Market calendar matters: Dec. 24 was an early close, and holiday liquidity can amplify moves
Two calendar quirks frame how HL may trade into Dec. 26:
- Christmas Eve (Dec. 24, 2025) was an early close for U.S. equities markets (1:00 p.m. ET), compressing the normal price-discovery window. [6]
- Holiday weeks often bring thinner volume, which can exaggerate momentum—up or down—especially in stocks that have recently attracted attention (like index additions).
In other words: even if there’s no brand-new company headline overnight, HL can still gap or trend meaningfully on commodity moves, broader risk sentiment, or positioning.
The headline catalyst: Hecla’s S&P MidCap 400 inclusion
Hecla announced it would be added to the S&P MidCap 400 Index, effective prior to the open on Dec. 22, 2025, citing improved scale and execution across its U.S. and Canadian operating base. The company also emphasized it would be the only precious metals producer in the index at the time of inclusion, a narrative that can matter to institutions screening for “category” exposure. [7]
Why this matters for Dec. 26 specifically:
- Some passive flows occur close to the effective date, but portfolio rebalancing can continue afterward.
- It can also raise the odds of incremental sell-side coverage and more consistent institutional attention over 2026.
Q3 2025 recap: record results, stronger balance sheet, and cash generation
Hecla’s most recently reported quarter (Q3 2025) delivered a cluster of metrics that bulls continue to cite:
- Record quarterly revenue of about $409.5 million
- Net income of about $100.7 million
- Adjusted EBITDA of about $195.7 million [8]
The company also highlighted $148.0 million in cash generated from operations and $90.1 million in free cash flow in the quarter. [9]
Just as important for many investors: management said its net leverage ratio fell to ~0.3x and that it had fully repaid its revolving credit facility (and repaid Investissement Québec notes), with cash and cash equivalents of ~$133.9 million at quarter end. [10]
Hecla also reported net debt of roughly $143.8 million at quarter end (using its reported net debt definition). [11]
2025 production outlook: what Hecla is forecasting
For investors scanning for the “forward view,” Hecla’s 2025 production outlook (as communicated in its Q3 materials and updates) remains a key anchor.
Consolidated silver production guidance
Hecla’s consolidated silver production outlook was 16.2–17.0 million ounces for 2025, with mine-level expectations including: [12]
- Greens Creek:8.4–8.8 Moz
- Lucky Friday:4.9–5.1 Moz
- Keno Hill:2.9–3.1 Moz [13]
Consolidated gold production guidance
Hecla tightened consolidated gold production guidance to 145–150 thousand ounces, with: [14]
- Casa Berardi:92–95 koz
- Greens Creek:53–55 koz
This matters because the stock has increasingly traded like a silver-and-gold torque story—benefiting from strong precious metals pricing, but also exposed if those prices cool.
Cost guidance and capex: negative silver cash costs (by-product credits) are a key part of the bull case
Hecla is unusual among silver producers because its ore bodies are polymetallic. In practice, that means lead and zinc by-product credits can substantially offset reported unit costs at its primary silver operations.
From Hecla’s 2025 guidance framework:
- Total Silver operations (Greens Creek + Lucky Friday):
- Cash cost after by-product credits:($1.75) to ($0.75) per ounce
- AISC after by-product credits:$11.00 to $13.00 per ounce [15]
For investors, “negative” cash costs can be compelling—but it also means the cost story can shift if by-product prices (lead/zinc) or recovery rates change.
On capital spending, Hecla indicated total capital expenditures of ~$222–$242 million for 2025, with a split between sustaining and growth categories. [16]
Keno Hill: upside potential, ramp-up risk, and hedging that limits extremes
Keno Hill is one of the most important swing factors in how many investors model Hecla’s 2026–2027 potential. Hecla has described the ramp toward mill nameplate capacity of 440 tons per day as a major objective. [17]
The hedging angle investors should understand
To manage cash-flow risk during heavy investment and ramp-up, Hecla disclosed it used zero-cost collars for part of Keno Hill’s forecast silver production:
- Contracts covering 1.99 million ounces of silver over the next three quarters
- An average price floor of $32.19/oz and participation up to $49/oz
- The instruments were in a net liability position of $5.7 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 [18]
This is a double-edged sword:
- It can protect cash flow if silver pulls back.
- It can also cap some upside participation if silver stays far above those levels.
Hecla also reported base-metals pricing contracts covering portions of forecasted payable zinc and lead production for 2025–2026. [19]
Permitting and exploration: the “next leg” narratives behind HL
Nevada: Polaris Exploration Project approved for 2026 activity
On Dec. 1, Hecla announced that its subsidiary received a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) and Decision Notice from the U.S. Forest Service for the Polaris Exploration Project in Mineral County, Nevada—clearing the way for exploration to begin in 2026. [20]
The company emphasized the Aurora Mining District’s historic production profile (including 1.9 million ounces of gold and 20 million ounces of silver) and noted existing infrastructure, including a 600-ton-per-day mill on site. [21]
Independent mining press also framed the approval as a meaningful step toward restarting systematic exploration in a historic Nevada district. [22]
Midas / Greens Creek / Keno Hill: high-grade exploration headlines
In late November, Hecla released exploration updates that included:
- Midas (Nevada): “visible gold” and reported results including 0.95 oz/ton gold over 2.2 feet as part of first drilling along a two-mile trend [23]
- Keno Hill (Yukon): identification of a potential new ore shoot at the Bermingham deposit and discussion of high-grade continuity below existing reserves [24]
- Greens Creek (Alaska): continued work supporting near-mine resource expansion potential [25]
Montana: Libby Exploration Project decision (earlier 2025 catalyst)
Hecla also disclosed that the U.S. Forest Service issued a final decision notice and FONSI for its Libby Exploration Project in Montana. [26]
For long-term investors, these are the kinds of permitting and drill-result updates that can influence “multiple expansion” narratives—especially when precious metals prices are supportive.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: consensus sits below where HL has been trading
One of the most important “reality checks” heading into Dec. 26 is the gap between HL’s recent trading levels and many published analyst targets.
According to Investing.com’s compiled analyst view:
- 10 analysts
- Average 12-month price target:$15.90
- High estimate:$19
- Low estimate:$12
- The consensus rating is shown as “Buy” (with a mix of buys/holds and at least one sell). [27]
That same page also lists notable firm stances and recent actions, including targets such as $12 (sell) and multiple holds in the $13.50–$15 range, alongside at least one buy rating with a higher target. [28]
Why it matters:
- When a stock trades above much of the published target set, it can mean the market is pricing in a better commodity backdrop and/or execution.
- It can also mean the stock becomes vulnerable to “good news already priced in” pullbacks if metals cool or results disappoint.
Separately, commentary around HL’s late-year surge has included “valuation check” style analysis, reflecting how quickly the market narrative shifted after record results and index inclusion. [29]
Insider activity: a Form 144 filing adds a near-term watch item
Into year-end, investors also tend to watch insider activity for clues about supply.
A Reuters/Refinitiv item distributed via TradingView reported that Michael L. Clary (Vice President) filed a Form 144 on Dec. 19, 2025, proposing the sale of 125,000 shares via Charles Schwab. The report also notes Form 144 filings generally permit sales (or portions of the shares) within a 90-day window. [30]
The Form 144 itself is publicly accessible via the SEC’s EDGAR system. [31]
Important nuance: a Form 144 is not the same thing as confirming a completed sale—but it can still influence sentiment, particularly when a stock is near highs.
Short interest: not extreme, but worth monitoring into a holiday-thin tape
Short positioning can contribute to volatility, especially when liquidity is reduced.
MarketBeat reported that as of Dec. 15, 2025, Hecla had:
- 28.06 million shares sold short
- About 4.25% of the public float
- Days to cover:~1.4 [32]
That is not “crowded short” territory by typical standards—but it’s enough that sharp upside moves can force incremental covering, while downside moves can accelerate if momentum traders exit.
What could move Hecla Mining (HL) stock on Dec. 26: a practical pre-market checklist
Here’s what tends to matter most for HL specifically heading into the open:
1) Precious metals direction (silver matters most, gold still important)
Hecla’s earnings power and narrative both tend to strengthen when silver is strong (and when gold is strong, Casa Berardi and gold-linked assets get more attention).
2) Silver-miner and silver proxy signals
For a quick “tape check,” investors often glance at silver proxies and miners broadly. As of the most recent available pricing from Dec. 24, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) were mixed—useful context for whether HL is likely to trade with (or against) the group.
3) Post-Christmas market tone
Dec. 26 is widely discussed as a historically constructive trading day, and it also falls within the “Santa Claus rally” window that many traders monitor—though seasonality is never a guarantee. [33]
4) Company-specific headline risk (less likely, but impactful if it hits)
Watch for:
- Any follow-on exploration or permitting updates (Polaris/Aurora, Midas, Keno Hill, Greens Creek)
- SEC filings related to insider transactions or capital structure
- Any changes to guidance language going into year-end
Key risks to keep in mind (especially with HL near its highs)
Even with strong momentum, there are real risks that can matter more when a stock has already moved sharply:
- Commodity reversal risk: Hecla remains highly sensitive to silver, gold, and by-product metals prices. [34]
- Execution risk at Keno Hill: ramp-ups are rarely linear, and hedging can dampen upside if silver remains far above collar ceilings. [35]
- Cost variability: negative silver cash cost is supportive, but it depends on sustained by-product economics and operational performance. [36]
- Profit-taking and positioning: index inclusion can help liquidity, but it can also bring more short-term, flow-driven trading. [37]
- Insider sale signals: filings don’t guarantee sales, but they can influence sentiment when a stock is extended. [38]
Bottom line before the Dec. 26 open
Hecla Mining stock heads into Dec. 26, 2025 with a rare combination of strong momentum, record-recent financial performance, improving leverage metrics, and fresh index inclusion, plus a pipeline of exploration and permitting developments that could shape longer-term optionality. [39]
At the same time, HL is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above many published consensus targets, which can set the stage for bigger-than-usual swings—particularly in a holiday-thin market that’s just reopening after Christmas. [40]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. s29.q4cdn.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.nyse.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. s29.q4cdn.com, 9. s29.q4cdn.com, 10. s29.q4cdn.com, 11. s29.q4cdn.com, 12. s29.q4cdn.com, 13. s29.q4cdn.com, 14. s29.q4cdn.com, 15. www.hecla.com, 16. www.hecla.com, 17. s29.q4cdn.com, 18. s29.q4cdn.com, 19. s29.q4cdn.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.miningweekly.com, 23. www.businesswire.com, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.businesswire.com, 26. s29.q4cdn.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.marketwatch.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. s29.q4cdn.com, 36. www.hecla.com, 37. www.businesswire.com, 38. www.tradingview.com, 39. s29.q4cdn.com, 40. www.investing.com
