Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) is back in the spotlight on December 10, 2025, as fresh analyst upgrades, detailed Q4 results, big AI announcements from its Discover Barcelona 2025 event, and notable insider activity all converge on the stock.
As of late Wednesday trading, HPE shares are changing hands around $25.04, up a little over 1% on the day, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $32.6 billion. [1]
Below is a breakdown of the latest news, forecasts and analyses around Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock as of 10 December 2025.
HPE stock snapshot on December 10, 2025
- Last price: about $25.04 per share, up roughly 1–1.1% on the session.
- 52‑week range:$11.97 (low) to $26.44 (high). [2]
- Market cap: about $32.63 billion. [3]
- Valuation: trailing GAAP P/E is deeply distorted at around –412 due to prior-year losses, but the forward P/E is near 10–11x 2026 EPS, based on Wall Street forecasts. [4]
- Balance sheet: current ratio 1.01, quick ratio 0.76, debt‑to‑equity about 0.72 – a leveraged but not extreme profile for a hardware and infrastructure vendor. [5]
- Trend: the stock trades above both its 50‑day (~$23.3) and 200‑day (~$21.8) moving averages and sits about 6% below its all‑time high of $26.44 set in October. [6]
From a performance standpoint, HPE has lagged the Nasdaq Composite despite a solid rally:
- Year to date: HPE +16% vs Nasdaq +22.1%.
- Last 12 months: HPE +7.2% vs Nasdaq +19.5%. [7]
In other words, the stock has been strong in absolute terms but a relative underperformer versus the broader tech benchmark — a key theme in today’s analyst commentary.
Q4 FY 2025 earnings: strong growth, AI backlog and higher 2026 guidance
On December 4, 2025, HPE reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025. Management described it as the end of a “transformative year” marked by the closing of the Juniper Networks acquisition and aggressive investment in AI and cloud. [8]
Headline Q4 numbers
According to the company’s press release: [9]
- Revenue: $9.7 billion, up 14% year over year (and in constant currency).
- Annualized revenue run‑rate (ARR): $3.2 billion, up 63% YoY, with about 80% coming from software and services (including Juniper subscriptions). [10]
- Gross margin:
- GAAP: 33.5%, up 270 bps YoY.
- Non‑GAAP: 36.4%, up 550 bps YoY.
- Diluted EPS:
- GAAP: $0.11, down sharply vs last year due to earlier‑year charges.
- Non‑GAAP: $0.62, up from $0.58 a year ago and above guidance of $0.56–$0.60.
- Free cash flow: about $1.92 billion in Q4, up roughly $420 million YoY.
Several independent analysts highlight that HPE beat EPS expectations (consensus around $0.59) while missing slightly on revenue (Street anticipated roughly $9.9 billion). [11]
Segment performance: networking shines, servers soften
By business line, Q4 showed a clear mix shift: [12]
- Servers: $4.5B revenue, down 5% YoY, reflecting delayed AI server shipments and weaker U.S. federal demand following the recent government shutdown. [13]
- Networking: $2.8B revenue, up 150% YoY, driven largely by the inclusion of Juniper and growth in AI‑ready networking gear.
- Hybrid Cloud: $1.4B revenue, down 12% YoY, as HPE continues to reshape its portfolio and address a rapidly changing virtualization market.
- Financial Services: roughly flat revenue YoY but with improved margins and return on equity.
Commentary from infrastructure‑focused outlets notes that HPE is increasingly a “network‑centric company”, with Juniper‑inspired networking growth offsetting weaker traditional server sales. [14]
AI orders and the 2026 roadmap
A key part of the story is AI infrastructure:
- HPE booked about $6.8 billion in new AI system orders in FY 2025, including roughly $2.0 billion in Q4 alone, according to analysis of the earnings call. [15]
- Many of these deals, especially sovereign and large enterprise AI projects, are seeing elongated deployment cycles due to data‑center readiness, power and cooling constraints, and procurement timelines. That delay helped explain the revenue shortfall vs consensus. [16]
Despite those timing issues, HPE raised parts of its fiscal 2026 outlook: [17]
- Q1 FY 2026 guidance:
- Revenue: $9.0–$9.4B (seasonally softer and below some earlier Street models).
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $0.57–$0.61.
- Full‑year FY 2026:
- Revenue growth 17–22%.
- Non‑GAAP operating profit growth 32–40%.
- Non‑GAAP EPS raised to $2.25–$2.45.
- Free cash flow guidance midpoint lifted to $1.7–$2.0B.
Management characterizes FY 2026 as back‑half weighted for AI shipments, with AI systems revenue expected to skew more heavily toward the second half of the year as data centers catch up with demand. [18]
AI-native networking and GreenLake: Discover Barcelona 2025 updates
Alongside earnings, HPE used its Discover Barcelona 2025 event to showcase how it plans to monetize the AI and hybrid cloud boom.
AI-native networking and Juniper integration
In Barcelona, HPE unveiled an expanded AI‑native networking portfolio that unifies capabilities from HPE Aruba Networking and the recently acquired HPE Juniper Networking (Mist) platforms. [19]
Key announcements included:
- A shared AIOps framework that brings Mist’s Large Experience Model (LEM) and Aruba’s Agentic Mesh technology together to enable “self‑driving” networks that can automatically detect and remediate issues. [20]
- The HPE Juniper Networking QFX5250 switch, built on Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6 silicon, designed to connect GPUs in AI clusters with 102.4 Tbps of bandwidth and liquid cooling for power efficiency. [21]
- The HPE Juniper Networking MX301 multiservice edge router, which pushes AI inferencing closer to where data is generated. [22]
- Deeper integrations between HPE OpsRamp, GreenLake, and Juniper’s Apstra software, aimed at giving IT teams a unified “hybrid command center” view across compute, storage, networking and cloud. [23]
Executives emphasized that as InfiniBand workloads gradually migrate toward Ethernet, HPE sees a major opportunity in Ethernet‑based AI data‑center fabrics, positioning the combined HPE‑Juniper portfolio as a standard, open alternative for AI clusters. [24]
GreenLake, virtualization and AI services
Another Barcelona press release detailed expansions to the HPE GreenLake cloud platform and Morpheus virtualization software: [25]
- GreenLake now offers broader support for AI, cloud‑native and traditional virtualized workloads, with an emphasis on lowering VM licensing costs and simplifying multi‑cloud operations.
- HPE highlighted HPE Private Cloud AI, new HPE Alletra Storage MP offerings, and enhanced cyber‑resilient backup via HPE StoreOnce, all tailored to AI and data‑intensive use cases.
These launches, combined with AI‑native networking, are central to HPE’s goal of growing recurring, higher‑margin software and services revenue, as reflected in the 63% ARR growth reported for Q4. [26]
Fresh analyst calls: Argus goes to $30, consensus hovers around mid‑$20s
Argus: “Buy” with a $30 target
The headline analyst move today comes from Argus Research, which raised its price target on HPE from $25 to $30 while reiterating a “Buy” rating. [27]
- Argus’ new target implies roughly 19–21% upside from where the stock currently trades. [28]
- The call reflects a positive view of HPE’s AI and networking strategy, including the Juniper acquisition, improving margins, and upgraded FY 2026 EPS guidance. [29]
Street consensus: “Hold” to “Moderate Buy” with upside to ~$26
Consensus is more nuanced:
- MarketBeat data shows a “Hold” rating from 22 analysts, with 1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy and 14 Hold ratings and an average price target of $25.53. [30]
- Barchart reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus from 19 covering analysts and a mean price target of $26.38, suggesting about 6–7% upside from recent levels. [31]
- GuruFocus aggregates 17 analyst targets, putting the average at $25.99 (high $31, low $21), and characterizes the Street view as “Outperform” with an average recommendation score of 2.3 on a 1–5 scale. [32]
- StockAnalysis.com cites 16 analysts with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average target of $26.13 (range $18–$31), about 3.7% above a late‑afternoon price of $25.19. [33]
In the pre‑market session on December 10, HPE was also one of Nasdaq’s most active stocks, trading around $24.68 with nearly 5 million shares changing hands, and had seen three upward EPS revisions for the fiscal quarter ending April 2026; Nasdaq pegged its then last sale at 94.9% of a $26 target price. [34]
Taken together, the latest data paint a picture where most analysts see modest upside, with a few high‑conviction calls (such as Argus and Raymond James) pointing to targets around $30–31. [35]
Forecasts: revenue, earnings and long‑term narratives
Wall Street estimates compiled by StockAnalysis and others suggest a sharp rebound in earnings as AI, networking and software mix shift take hold: [36]
- Revenue:
- FY 2025 (just reported): about $34.3B. [37]
- FY 2026 forecast: around $41.2B (+20% YoY on average).
- FY 2027 forecast: roughly $43.4B (+5% YoY).
- EPS (GAAP vs forecasted non‑GAAP mix):
- FY 2025: roughly –$0.04 due to earlier restructuring and one‑time charges.
- FY 2026: average estimate $2.39.
- FY 2027: average estimate $2.78, implying ~16% EPS growth.
Independent platforms are also weighing in on fair value:
- GuruFocus’ proprietary GF Value model pegs fair value at $22.20, which is actually below the current price, implying the market may be pricing in a premium over that specific model. [38]
- A Simply Wall St narrative published today highlights that HPE stock is up about 11.3% since the earnings and guidance update, and models a path to $44.4B in revenue and $2.7B in earnings by 2028, which would require sustained double‑digit growth. It derives an internal fair‑value estimate near $26.28, or roughly 6% upside versus recent trading. [39]
The common thread: forecasts assume HPE executes on its AI and hybrid‑cloud pivot, turns its robust order book into revenue, and steadily expands margins.
Insider activity: EVP Schultz’s $1.96 million sale
On December 8, 2025, Executive Vice President John F. Schultz filed a Form 4 showing the sale of 84,676 HPE shares at a weighted average price of about $23.15, for total proceeds of roughly $1.96 million. [40]
Key details from the SEC‑linked disclosure: [41]
- The sale occurred as part of a pre‑arranged trading plan adopted in March 2025.
- Schultz also acquired a substantial number of shares via vesting of performance‑based and time‑based restricted stock units earlier in December.
- After accounting for both acquisitions and tax‑related share disposals, he still directly owns about 338,685 shares of HPE.
The same report notes that HPE’s share price has risen nearly 37% over the past six months and is trading close to its 52‑week high, conditions under which executives often diversify. It also recaps that brokerage firms including Raymond James (Strong Buy, PT $31) and Bank of America (Buy, PT $29) recently lifted their price targets following Q4 results and the Juniper integration update. [42]
While any insider sale deserves attention, the combination of ongoing share ownership, RSU vesting, and a pre‑set trading plan suggests this move is not necessarily a directional statement on the company’s long‑term prospects.
“Underperforming” the Nasdaq – but is that an opportunity?
A widely circulated piece today asks whether Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock is underperforming the Nasdaq, noting: [43]
- HPE is up 16% year to date and 7.2% over the past 12 months,
- versus 22.1% and 19.5% respectively for the Nasdaq Composite.
At the same time:
- HPE has traded above its 200‑day moving average since late June and mostly above its 50‑day moving average since early May, underscoring a bullish technical trend. [44]
- The stock sits only a few percentage points below its record high of $26.44, reached in October. [45]
From a relative‑value perspective, some commentators argue that HPE’s AI exposure and low‑teens forward earnings multiple compare favorably with higher‑flying AI names, while others caution that its AI revenue is still ramping and that networking‑driven growth must offset cyclical servers and integration risk. [46]
Dividend profile
HPE remains a dividend‑paying tech stock, which is a differentiator in the AI infrastructure space:
- The board declared a regular cash dividend of $0.1425 per share, payable in January 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 19, 2025. [47]
- Independent data providers note that HPE has maintained dividend payments for 11 consecutive years and currently offers a yield of roughly 2–2.5% at recent prices. [48]
For income‑oriented investors who still want AI exposure, this combination of yield plus growth optionality is part of the bull case.
Key risks investors are watching
Despite the upbeat guidance and bullish analyst upgrades, several risks feature prominently in recent analyses: [49]
- AI server timing and visibility
- A meaningful portion of HPE’s AI orders depends on data‑center construction, power availability and government budgeting. Revenue recognition can slip between quarters, creating volatility.
- Integration risk with Juniper Networks
- HPE is still early in integrating Juniper’s product portfolio, go‑to‑market teams and software subscriptions. Initial synergies look promising, but large integrations can carry execution risk.
- Thin GAAP profitability
- For FY 2025, HPE’s GAAP profit was only a few million dollars due to earlier one‑time charges, despite healthy revenue growth. Bears argue that non‑GAAP EPS improvements must translate into durable GAAP earnings over time. [50]
- Competition from Dell, Cisco and cloud hyperscalers
- HPE’s AI factories and hybrid‑cloud offerings compete not only with traditional OEMs but also with public‑cloud giants that offer their own AI stacks.
- Macro and IT spending cycles
- Enterprise hardware and networking remain sensitive to macro shocks, interest rates, and government budgets, as reflected in this quarter’s commentary on U.S. federal spending.
Bottom line: where HPE stock stands after today’s news
As of December 10, 2025, Hewlett Packard Enterprise sits at an interesting crossroads:
- The stock trades near the upper end of its 52‑week range, with a forward valuation that is modest by AI‑infrastructure standards. [51]
- Earnings and cash flow are trending up, helped by networking strength and recurring‑revenue growth from GreenLake, even as GAAP results still reflect past restructuring noise. [52]
- The AI opportunity is real but back‑loaded, dependent on data‑center build‑outs and customer readiness rather than pure demand. [53]
- Analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic: consensus hovers between “Hold” and “Moderate Buy” with average targets around $25.5–$26.5, while high‑conviction firms like Argus and Raymond James see room for the stock to reach $30–31 if HPE executes on its plan. [54]
For investors, the decision largely comes down to risk tolerance and time horizon:
- Those comfortable with multi‑year AI and networking cycles may view today’s price as an entry point into a diversified, dividend‑paying AI infrastructure vendor.
- More conservative investors may prefer to wait for clearer evidence that AI orders are converting into sustained GAAP earnings growth and that Juniper integration continues smoothly.
Either way, Hewlett Packard Enterprise has firmly re‑inserted itself into the AI and hybrid‑cloud conversation — and today’s wave of upgraded price targets, detailed forecasts and insider disclosures ensures HPE will remain on many watchlists heading into 2026
References
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