Mumbai | 10 December 2025
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL), one of India’s most widely owned FMCG stocks, is going through a classic “great company, tricky stock” phase.
On 10 December 2025, Hindustan Unilever share price was hovering around ₹2,300 on the NSE, down about 0.2% intraday and roughly 12–13% lower over the last three months. The Economic Times+1 The stock has slipped enough for its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to fall below 30, putting HUL in the “oversold” zone for the first time in many months. Business Standard
The weakness comes just days after the demerger of Kwality Wall’s India, HUL’s ice-cream business, and on the back of muted earnings growth and premium valuations. Yet, most brokerages still see meaningful upside from today’s levels.
Hindustan Unilever share price today: Slow bleed after sharp demerger hit
According to the Economic Times’ liveblog, HUL’s last traded price at around 2:06 pm on 10 December was ₹2,298, with intraday quotes oscillating near the ₹2,300 mark. The stock is down about 4.5% over one month, 12.7% over three months, and roughly 3.5% over the past year. The Economic Times
Trading volumes remain healthy: around 2.4 million shares changed hands on the NSE during the session, indicating continued institutional and retail participation even as the price drifts lower. The Economic Times
On fundamentals, data from Groww and other platforms show: Groww+1
- Market cap: ~₹5.4–5.5 lakh crore
- Trailing P/E: ~49–50x
- Price-to-book: ~11x
- Dividend yield: about 2.1–2.3%
- 52-week range: roughly ₹2,136–₹2,780
In other words, Hindustan Unilever is no longer expensive by accident; the rich multiple is still very much there even after a 10–12% correction.
Why HUL stock is under pressure: The Kwality Wall’s demerger overhang
The big near-term event for the stock was the spin-off of its ice-cream business, Kwality Wall’s (India) Limited (KWIL).
- The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) sanctioned the demerger on 6 November 2025, and the scheme became effective on 1 December 2025. Business Standard
- 5 December 2025 was set as the record date; from that day, HUL started trading ex-ice-cream business and shareholders on record became entitled to free shares of KWIL in a 1:1 ratio (one KWIL share for every HUL share). mint+1
On 5 December, the impact on the share price was immediate and visible:
- In a special pre-open session, HUL was discovered at ₹2,422 — about 2% below the previous close of ₹2,462.20.
- During the day, the stock slumped as much as 7% to an intraday low near ₹2,289 before recovering some ground to close around ₹2,339, still down 3.5%. Moneycontrol+2mint+2
Business Standard cites Nuvama Institutional Equities as estimating that the ice-cream business accounts for roughly ₹50–55 of HUL’s pre-demerger share price and trades at a lower margin and smaller scale than the core portfolio. Business Standard Nuvama expects KWIL to list around February 2026 at about 5x EV/sales, versus roughly 9x EV/sales for HUL’s core franchise, making it a lower-multiple, higher-growth adjunct to the main business. Business Standard
For HUL shareholders, the demerger has two implications:
- Optics of a one-time price drop as the ice-cream piece is carved out.
- A separate pure-play ice-cream stock with brands like Kwality Wall’s, Magnum and Cornetto, which Nuvama believes could grow revenue at 15–20% CAGR. Business Standard+1
Short term, however, markets are still digesting the price adjustment and trying to value HUL excluding ice cream.
Q2 FY26 results: Growth muted, margins at the low end of guidance
If the demerger was the “event”, the underlying drag is still earnings.
For the September quarter (Q2 FY26):
- Revenue: ~₹16,034 crore, up just about 2% year-on-year.
- Net profit: ~₹2,694 crore, up 3.8% YoY on a reported basis, helped by tax-related items. Swastika Investmart
- Underlying sales growth: around 2%.
- Underlying volume growth: flat — no increase in units sold, despite all the brand heft. Unilever
- EBITDA margin: ~23.2%, down around 90 bps YoY and at the lowest level since mid‑2024. Markets Mojo
Home Care and parts of the Beauty & Wellbeing portfolio showed mid-single-digit growth, but the GST rate changes and unseasonal rains hurt margins and some categories. Unilever+1
MarketsMojo summarises Q2 FY26 as a quarter of sluggish top-line, margin compression and expensive valuation, assigning HUL: Markets Mojo
- Quality grade: Good
- Financial trend: Flat
- Valuation grade: Very Expensive
- Verdict: Hold, not attractive for fresh buying at earlier levels around ₹2,500+
The platform also flags that HUL’s 3-year stock performance has badly lagged the Sensex, with negative alpha of over 40 percentage points — essentially, you took blue-chip risk for index-underperformance. Markets Mojo
Macro and input-cost picture: Some help is finally on the way
The good news for HUL and other FMCG companies is that raw-material stress is easing in many areas — just not uniformly.
A Mint analysis of input costs published on 7 December notes a “sharp split” in key commodities: mint
- Palm oil and some packaging materials have softened,
- while sugar, coffee and fishmeal are seeing renewed inflation.
Brokerage Equirus Securities expects most FMCG companies to see volume-led growth in the second half of FY26, helped by GST 2.0 and moderating input prices in categories like food, beverages, beauty and personal care. mint
Nomura, in a 1 December sector note, expects Indian consumer firms to enjoy sequential margin improvement in Q3 FY26 as commodity prices soften further. HUL, specifically, is expected to see only modest gross margin gains, with management likely to reinvest much of that benefit into advertising and promotions, keeping operating margins within the guided 22–23% band. Business Standard
Overlay this with the RBI’s recent rate cut and the government’s GST and income-tax reductions, and the demand setup for mass-consumption companies looks structurally better than it did during the period of double-digit food inflation. NDTV Profit+1
What Unilever expects from HUL: Grow at least in line with India’s GDP
Unilever’s new global CEO, Fernando Fernandez, hasn’t been subtle about what he wants from the Indian subsidiary.
In a recent fireside chat, he said Unilever wants Hindustan Unilever’s volume growth to be at least in line with India’s GDP, after a period of only mid-single-digit expansion. With India’s GDP growing 8.2% last quarter, that’s an ambitious but clear benchmark. The Economic Times
Fernandez highlighted three things: The Economic Times
- India now has multiple income “layers”, from 60 million consumers with incomes similar to France to ~700 million comparable to Southeast Asia and another 700 million with African-market profiles — all reachable by HUL’s brands.
- Government measures such as GST cuts, tax reductions and rate cuts are aimed at reviving consumption after three years of high food inflation.
- HUL has brought in a new leadership team, including CEO Priya Nair and a CFO hired from Hero MotoCorp, to re-energise volume growth and sharpen execution.
Strategically, Unilever does not see HUL as structurally losing share; instead, it argues that HUL still enjoys unmatched breadth across price tiers and categories, even if short-term competition has intensified in beauty and home care. The Economic Times
Analyst view: Consensus “Buy”, but valuations still bite
Despite the recent de-rating, HUL is still priced like a quality compounder, not a turnaround stock — and broker recommendations reflect that tension.
Consensus targets
- Trendlyne data (11 analysts) shows an average 12‑month target of around ₹2,792, implying ~21–22% upside from current levels near ₹2,300. Trendlyne.com+1
- Investing.com, which tracks 38 analysts, reports:
- 29 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell ratings,
- an average target of about ₹2,784,
- with a high estimate of ₹3,200 and a low of ₹1,966. Investing.com India
Selected brokerage stances
- Goldman Sachs: Buy, target near ₹2,850; sees HUL as a core FMCG holding, expecting gradual volume recovery as GST disruptions fade. Business Standard+1
- Morgan Stanley: Equal-weight with a target around ₹2,335, reflecting concerns about soft volumes and limited near-term triggers. mint
- Investec: Hold rating with a target near ₹2,610, highlighting rich valuations and moderate growth. Groww
- MarketsMojo: Hold, not recommending fresh buying at earlier levels; fair value estimated near ₹2,300–2,400, suggesting little upside unless the stock corrects further or growth accelerates. Markets Mojo
Taken together, the street broadly says: great franchise, some upside from here, but not a screaming bargain.
Technical picture: HUL in oversold territory
From a purely technical lens, HUL looks tired but not broken.
- Business Standard’s RSI screen for 10 December lists Hindustan Unilever with a 14‑day RSI of 29.7, below the commonly watched 30 threshold that signals an “oversold” condition. The stock closed the previous session at around ₹2,309. Business Standard
- The latest ET liveblog shows the share sliding steadily below its short-term moving averages; the 3‑day EMA is around ₹2,409 versus a spot price close to ₹2,300. The Economic Times
Interestingly, just a week ago, some technical calls (for example, an Anand Rathi idea carried by Times of India) suggested buying near ₹2,450–2,470 with a target of ₹2,575 based on a breakout above long-term moving averages and improving momentum indicators. The Times of India Since then, the post‑demerger gap-down has negated that breakout and dragged the stock into oversold territory.
For traders, this sets up a classic mean‑reversion vs. trend‑following dilemma:
- Bulls will argue that a defensive FMCG leader in an oversold zone after a one-off corporate event is a candidate for a bounce.
- Bears will point to flat volumes, margin pressure and premium valuation as reasons why “oversold” might just mean “repricing to a lower range”.
Key risks to the HUL thesis
Based on recent analyses and sector commentary, several risks stand out: Markets Mojo+1
- Sustained margin compression
- Operating margins have already slipped to around 23.2%, and further pressure from sugar, coffee and other inputs could hurt profitability if HUL cannot fully pass on costs.
- Sluggish volume growth
- Flat underlying volumes in Q2 FY26 and earlier quarters mean growth has been largely price-led, which is harder to sustain in a softer inflation environment.
- Premium valuation
- Even at ~₹2,300, the stock trades near 50x trailing earnings. If growth remains in low single digits, the market could continue to de-rate the multiple.
- Competitive intensity
- Regional brands and digital-first challengers in beauty, skincare and home care are nipping at HUL’s heels, especially in urban markets.
- Execution on demerger and portfolio reshaping
- The Kwality Wall’s spin-off adds value potential, but also brings the challenge of maintaining growth in the core portfolio while investors reprice both entities.
Long-term story: Quality franchise, near-term execution test
Despite the current discomfort, Hindustan Unilever still checks most structural boxes that long-term investors care about:
- Dominant FMCG portfolio across categories and price points
- Deep rural and urban distribution
- Debt-free balance sheet and strong cash generation
- Consistent dividend payout with one of the better yields in large-cap consumer stocks Markets Mojo+1
At the same time, the market is clearly signalling that “great business” is not the same as “great stock at any price”. The combination of:
- low single-digit sales growth,
- flat volumes,
- margins at the low end of guidance, and
- a still‑elevated P/E
means Hindustan Unilever now has to earn back its premium through execution — volume-led growth, margin repair and successful capital allocation post‑demerger.
For investors, the setup as of 10 December 2025 can be summed up as:
- Fundamentals: Solid but not spectacular in the near term.
- Valuation: Still rich, though less extreme after the recent correction.
- Sentiment/Technicals: Oversold and underperforming, but not capitulated.
- Street view: Mostly Buy or Hold with ~20% consensus upside, but growing emphasis on “wait for growth to pick up” or “buy on deeper dips”. Trendlyne.com+2Investing.com India+2
FAQ: Hindustan Unilever stock – key questions answered
Is Hindustan Unilever a buy, sell or hold right now?
Across major brokerages tracked by platforms such as Trendlyne and Investing.com, HUL currently carries a consensus “Buy” rating, though some houses are neutral (Hold/Equal-weight), especially after the ice-cream demerger and soft Q2 numbers. Groww+3Trendlyne.com+3Investing.com India+3
What is the average HUL share price target for the next 12 months?
Most recent consensus targets cluster around ₹2,780–2,800, implying roughly 20–22% upside versus the 10 December price near ₹2,300. Individual targets range from around ₹1,966 on the bearish side to ₹3,200 at the bullish end. Investing.com India+1
How does the Kwality Wall’s demerger impact shareholders?
Shareholders as of the 5 December record date will receive one share of Kwality Wall’s India for every HUL share held. The demerger has mechanically reduced HUL’s quoted price, but investors will ultimately own both HUL and KWIL once the latter lists, which Nuvama expects to happen around February 2026. Moneycontrol+1
Is HUL in an oversold zone on technical indicators?
Yes. Screens based on the 14‑day RSI show Hindustan Unilever below 30, a level many traders consider oversold, following the sharp fall around the demerger date and the subsequent drift lower. Business Standard+1
