Mumbai/New Delhi, December 26, 2025 — Hindustan Zinc Ltd (NSE: HINDZINC, BSE: 500188) surged to a fresh 52-week high on Friday as the global silver rally turned into a full-blown fireworks show, with spot silver touching the $75/oz milestone for the first time. The stock opened gap-up and climbed to an intraday high of ₹646.50 on the NSE, extending a sharp one-month run-up that has put the metals major firmly on traders’ radar heading into 2026. [1]
The immediate trigger is clear: silver prices are ripping higher in both global and domestic markets. On India’s MCX, silver futures hit a fresh record near ₹2,32,741 per kg, reinforcing the “silver proxy” trade that has increasingly defined Hindustan Zinc’s recent price action. [2]
But the more interesting question for investors is what comes next—because when a stock starts moving with a commodity at record highs, the upside can be powerful…and the reversal risks can get equally dramatic.
Why Hindustan Zinc stock is rising: the silver link is getting stronger
Hindustan Zinc is widely tracked as a play on zinc and lead, but 2025 has pushed silver into the driver’s seat for sentiment. On December 26, spot silver briefly hit $75.14/oz and was still trading around $74–$75/oz early in the session, supported by a mix of industrial demand, investment demand, tight inventories, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of further US rate cuts. [3]
That macro backdrop matters for Hindustan Zinc because silver has become a much larger contributor to profitability over time. A LiveMint analysis published December 26 notes that every $1/oz move in silver can lift Hindustan Zinc’s EBITDA by about 1%, and that silver accounted for 41% of EBIT in H1FY26 (up from ~28% in FY23), with expectations it could rise further over the next few years. [4]
The company’s own investor presentation for 2QFY26 also highlights that silver drives roughly ~40% of overall profit, underscoring why the market is reacting so aggressively when silver prints new highs. [5]
Put simply: Hindustan Zinc is increasingly trading like a leveraged instrument on silver, and December 26 is a textbook example of that relationship tightening.
What happened to the share price on 26 December 2025
By late morning, Moneycontrol reported that Hindustan Zinc:
- opened gap-up ~3.22%
- hit an intraday high of ₹646.50 on NSE (also the 52-week high)
- extended gains for the fourth session in a row
- was up ~35.87% over the past 30 days (BSE Analytics) [6]
The Economic Times, tracking the same move, pegged the broader momentum at roughly 14% over the last 10 trading sessions, again tying the rally directly to silver’s push beyond $75/oz and MCX silver’s new peak. [7]
Meanwhile, brokerage dashboards also reflected the sharp rerating: ICICI Direct’s stock page showed Hindustan Zinc around ₹640 on December 26 and highlighted the stock’s strong run over the last six months and year alongside a new 52-week high near ₹646.5. [8]
The fundamental backdrop: record quarter, low costs, and FY26 guidance
Momentum stories are fun, but Hindustan Zinc’s rally isn’t occurring in a vacuum. The company’s 2QFY26 investor presentation (released after results for the quarter and half-year ended September 30, 2025) pointed to three pillars the market tends to reward in commodity names:
1) Strong financial performance in 2QFY26
The company reported (consolidated) for 2QFY26:
- Revenue from operations of ₹8,549 crore (its highest-ever second-quarter revenue; +10% QoQ)
- EBITDA of ₹4,467 crore (+16% QoQ) with an EBITDA margin around 52%
- Profit after tax of ₹2,649 crore (+19% QoQ; +14% YoY) [9]
2) Cost leadership (the “survive the cycle” advantage)
A key support for the bullish case is cost. The same presentation highlighted a 5-year-low zinc cost of production of ~$994/tonne in 2QFY26 (and a “5-year lowest” cost position across the half-year as well). [10]
3) Clear FY2026 guidance
Hindustan Zinc guided for FY2026 production and capex as follows:
- Mined metal:1,125 (±10) Ktpa
- Refined metal:1,075 (±10) Ktpa
- Silver:680 (±10) metric tonnes
- Zinc COP: ~$1,000/tonne (excluding royalty)
- Growth capex:$350–$400 million [11]
That guidance matters because it frames the debate investors are having right now: How much of the earnings upside will come from prices (silver/zinc) versus volumes (production growth)?
The big friction point: production constraints vs price tailwinds
One reason investors keep returning to Hindustan Zinc is that the company can look like a “clean” way to express a silver view in Indian equities. The problem is that mining and refining output doesn’t always scale smoothly.
LiveMint flagged this directly: while higher prices are lifting the earnings outlook, production constraints remain a key watchpoint, and management’s guidance implies only modest growth in zinc+lead output and slightly lower silver output versus FY25. The same piece notes that in H1FY26, metals output fell and silver production declined more sharply—exactly the kind of operational drag that can cap upside if commodity prices cool. [12]
This is the classic commodity-producer tension:
- Prices can surge overnight
- Volumes usually can’t
So the market is rewarding Hindustan Zinc for the price windfall, while simultaneously watching whether operations can keep up.
Broker forecasts and price targets: bullish on silver, split on valuation
Jefferies: “Buy” with ₹660 base target—and a higher upside case
Jefferies has been the headline driver on the analyst side in December, initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a ₹660 target price, describing Hindustan Zinc as a major beneficiary of rising silver and zinc prices and emphasizing its position on the low end of the global cost curve. [13]
Two details from Jefferies’ thesis have stood out in market coverage:
- Jefferies valued the company at about 10x Sep-2027E EV/EBITDA for its base case target of ₹660.
- It also laid out an upside scenario target around ₹740 (at ~11x EV/EBITDA), assuming stronger commodity prices. [14]
The hedge wrinkle: why the “full” silver benefit may show up later
A Moneycontrol report (shared via a Vedanta-hosted PDF) noted that Jefferies assumed silver prices in the $56–$60/oz range for 2HFY26–FY28 (below then-current spot), and highlighted that Hindustan Zinc had hedged ~37% of its 2HFY26 silver volumes at $37/oz, implying that a bigger portion of the price benefit may flow through later (for example, into FY27) as hedges roll off. [15]
In other words: the company can benefit enormously from silver—but depending on hedge coverage and timing, the earnings translation may be less immediate than the spot price chart suggests.
The valuation pushback: consensus targets imply downside from current levels
Not everyone is cheering at these levels. Aggregated analyst-tracking platforms show a much more cautious “consensus math”:
- Trendlyne’s consensus target has been cited around ₹510 (implying downside versus late-December prices). [16]
- INDmoney, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst data, showed a target around ₹518 with a wide range (high target near ₹660, low near ₹380), reflecting just how split the Street is on the sustainability of the current run. [17]
Kotak Securities: a published “Sell” call with ₹415 target
Adding to the divergence, Kotak Securities’ long-term view showed a SELL recommendation with a ₹415 target price (target date: Oct 23, 2026 as displayed on its page). [18]
The takeaway for investors is not that one number is “right,” but that Hindustan Zinc is currently priced at a point where commodity assumptions dominate the valuation argument—and that creates unusually wide dispersion in targets.
Technical and chart-based views: momentum is strong, but “pause risk” is rising
A late-December rally can be driven by both fundamentals and positioning. Technical analysts have weighed in too:
- Economic Times’ “Stock Radar” coverage (Dec 17) described Hindustan Zinc as breaking out after a consolidation phase, with experts targeting levels above ₹600 over the next 1–2 months, while also noting near-term overbought conditions can trigger pullbacks even in a broader uptrend. [19]
- An NDTV Profit opinion piece on long-term charts emphasized that long accumulation patterns can persist for years and suggested the stock may be in an advancing wave of a new uptrend—but also cautioned that steep trend phases often end in corrective pauses, and discussed a possible silver pause zone in the $78–$81 area. [20]
For Google Discover readers who don’t live inside candlestick charts: this translates to “trend is up, volatility risk is also up.”
Other current news investors are tracking in December 2025
The silver-driven rally is the headline, but several corporate updates also landed in the market’s field of view this month:
ESG rating disclosure (Dec 23, 2025)
Hindustan Zinc disclosed to exchanges that ESG Risk Assessments and Insights Limited assigned the company an ESG rating of ‘62’ as part of its annual assessment, and noted the rating was prepared independently using publicly available information (i.e., Hindustan Zinc said it did not engage the firm for the assessment). [21]
GST-related order disclosure (Dec 14, 2025)
In another exchange filing, the company disclosed receipt of a GST-related order confirming a penalty of ₹45,98,335 along with tax demand and applicable interest (related to input tax credit matters for FY2018–19 and FY2019–20). Hindustan Zinc said it intends to appeal and does not expect a material financial impact. [22]
Postal ballot results / governance update (Dec 2025)
A postal ballot scrutinizer’s report shows the process concluded on December 20, 2025, including a resolution related to appointing a Government Nominee Director on the board, with the resolution marked as passed in the report. [23]
These items didn’t drive the stock on December 26 the way silver did—but they’re part of the broader “investability” picture institutional investors monitor (governance, compliance, disclosures).
What to watch next: catalysts and risks into 2026
Key catalysts
- Silver price direction after $75/oz
If silver holds elevated levels or pushes higher, Hindustan Zinc may continue to attract inflows as a listed, liquid Indian silver-linked name. [24] - Hedge unwind / earnings translation
If hedge coverage is meaningful (as Jefferies-related coverage indicates), investors will watch when the spot move more fully hits reported realizations and margins. [25] - Cost discipline and execution on projects
The company’s low cost positioning (sub-$1,000/tonne COP highlighted in 2QFY26) is a competitive advantage—especially if metals cool. [26] - Volume and guidance credibility
FY26 guidance (including silver at ~680 tonnes) sets expectations. Any miss—especially in a high-price environment—can become a stock volatility trigger. [27]
Key risks
- Commodity reversal risk: If silver corrects sharply from record highs, the same “proxy” behavior that powered the rally can work in reverse. [28]
- Operational constraints: Production softness can dilute the benefit of higher prices. [29]
- Valuation compression: With consensus targets on some platforms sitting well below current prices, any disappointment can trigger derating. [30]
Bottom line
Hindustan Zinc’s December 26 move is the market screaming one message: silver matters more than ever for this stock. With spot silver breaking $75/oz and MCX silver printing fresh records, HINDZINC has surged to new highs on the view that earnings and cash flows can remain strong if the “silver wave” persists. [31]
At the same time, forecasts and targets are unusually split—Jefferies’ bullish framing (₹660 base, ₹740 upside scenario) sits alongside more conservative consensus signals and at least one prominent sell call, largely because valuation now hinges on how long record silver prices can last and how cleanly they translate into reported earnings given hedging and production realities. [32]
References
1. www.moneycontrol.com, 2. www.moneycontrol.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.livemint.com, 5. www.hzlindia.com, 6. www.moneycontrol.com, 7. m.economictimes.com, 8. www.icicidirect.com, 9. www.hzlindia.com, 10. www.hzlindia.com, 11. www.hzlindia.com, 12. www.livemint.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.financialexpress.com, 15. www.vedantalimited.com, 16. trendlyne.com, 17. www.indmoney.com, 18. www.kotaksecurities.com, 19. m.economictimes.com, 20. www.ndtvprofit.com, 21. www.hzlindia.com, 22. www.hzlindia.com, 23. www.hzlindia.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.vedantalimited.com, 26. www.hzlindia.com, 27. www.hzlindia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.livemint.com, 30. trendlyne.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.financialexpress.com
