Home Depot (HD) Stock After Hours on December 9, 2025: Investor Day Shock, 2026 Outlook, and What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10

Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) ended Tuesday’s session under pressure after the company used its long‑awaited Investor & Analyst Day to lay out a cautious roadmap for 2025 and 2026. The stock slipped during regular trading and then stabilized in after‑hours dealing, as investors digested a downbeat near‑term earnings path but also a “market recovery” scenario tied to a future rebound in housing and big‑ticket projects. ^[1]

Below is a detailed breakdown of what happened to Home Depot stock after the bell on December 9, 2025, what the company actually said at Investor Day, how Wall Street is reacting, and the key things to know before the U.S. stock market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

How Home Depot Stock Traded on December 9, 2025

Regular session:
Home Depot shares closed around $345.27 on Tuesday, down roughly 1.3% on the day as the market reacted to management’s preliminary fiscal 2026 guidance. ^[2]
After-hours move:
By about 6:17 p.m. ET, HD had ticked slightly higher to roughly $345.40 in after‑hours trading, essentially flat relative to the closing price and signaling that most of the day’s repricing had already occurred before the bell. ^[3]
Volume and volatility:
Trading volume pushed above 5 million shares, roughly 40% higher than Home Depot’s recent average of about 3.6 million shares, underscoring how closely the Street was watching the Investor Day update. ^[4]
Year-to-date laggard:
Even before today, Home Depot was already having a tough year. The stock is down about 10% in 2025, compared with a roughly 16% gain in the S&P 500, highlighting how housing-sensitive consumer names have trailed the broader market. ^[5]

In short: Tuesday’s session priced in a more muted near‑term growth path, while after‑hours trading showed no additional panic, just consolidation around the new outlook.

Inside Home Depot’s December 9 Investor Day: What Management Actually Told the Market

On Tuesday morning, Home Depot used its Investor & Analyst Conference in Atlanta to deliver a strategic update, reaffirm its fiscal 2025 guidance, and unveil a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook plus a more optimistic “market recovery” case. ^[6]

1. 2025 Guidance Reaffirmed

For fiscal 2025, management did not change its targets. Key points:

Total sales growth: About 3% for the year.
Comparable sales: Expected to be slightly positive on a comparable 52‑week basis.
GMS contribution: The SRS / GMS platform is projected to add about $2 billion in incremental sales. ^[7]
New stores: Roughly 12 new locations planned.
Margins:
- Gross margin: ~33.2%
- Operating margin: ~12.6%
- Adjusted operating margin: ~13.0%
Earnings:
- Diluted EPS expected to decline about 6% from fiscal 2024’s $14.91.
- Adjusted diluted EPS expected to fall about 5% from $15.24. ^[8]

In other words, 2025 is framed as a transition year: modest sales growth, some margin pressure, and a step down in earnings as the company absorbs acquisitions, invests in the business, and waits for a firmer housing backdrop.

2. Preliminary Fiscal 2026 Outlook: Slower Than Wall Street Wanted

The real jolt for the stock came from the 2026 guide, which landed notably below analyst expectations. Home Depot’s preliminary view for fiscal 2026 assumes a home‑improvement market that is basically flat:

Home improvement market growth:–1% to +1%
Comparable sales: Roughly flat to +2%
Total sales growth: About 2.5% to 4.5%
Operating margin:12.4–12.6%
Adjusted operating margin:12.8–13.0%
EPS growth: Diluted and adjusted EPS projected to be flat to up about 4%. ^[9]

By contrast, data compiled by LSEG and Visible Alpha suggested Wall Street had been expecting roughly 2.3% comparable sales growth and about 5.6% EPS growth for 2026. ^[10]

That gap explains why shares sold off: the numbers weren’t disastrous, but they were clearly below consensus.

3. “Market Recovery” and “Accelerated Recovery” Cases

Management also tried to show investors a more optimistic playbook if housing activity improves:

Market Recovery Case (once housing stabilizes and larger projects return):
- Total sales growth: about 5–6%
- Comparable sales growth: about 4–5%
- Operating profit growth faster than sales
- EPS growth: mid‑to‑high single digits ^[11]
Accelerated Recovery Case:
A faster rebound in housing could drive even quicker gains in sales and earnings, though the company did not put precise numbers on this scenario. ^[12]

CFO Richard McPhail stressed that Home Depot still believes housing will eventually become a tailwind again, allowing the home‑improvement market to grow faster than the broader economy once current pressures ease. ^[13]

Why Wall Street Took the Outlook as a Negative Surprise

1. Guidance vs Expectations

Several factors combined to push HD lower:

The company’s flat to 2% comparable sales view and 0–4% EPS growth for 2026 fell short of Street expectations for mid‑single‑digit profit growth. ^[14]
Management also reminded investors that 2025 EPS will decline mid‑single digits, building a picture of two consecutive years of earnings pressure before any real recovery. ^[15]

Reuters noted that Home Depot now expects consumer spending pressure to persist into 2026, as the company still hasn’t seen an inflection in housing activity despite easing mortgage rates. ^[16]

2. Macro Headwinds: Housing, Rates, and Big-Ticket Projects

Analysts have increasingly framed Home Depot’s slowdown as a mix of cyclical and structural pressures:

Weaker demand for DIY projects and big-ticket items as borrowing costs stay elevated and home prices remain historically high. ^[17]
A housing market that is still “choppy”, with affordability at multi‑decade lows. ^[18]
Some commentary has also pointed to one‑off weather factors: fewer major storms this year meant less emergency rebuilding, which historically drives spikes in sales for home‑improvement chains. ^[19]

Multiple recent analyses—from outlets like Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool and others—argue that Home Depot is still digesting a post‑pandemic demand reset after consumers pulled forward a tremendous amount of home-improvement spending in 2020–2021. ^[20]

3. A Consumer Shift Toward Value and Experiences

Investing.com’s comparison of Dollar Tree’s recent surge with Home Depot’s slide paints a clear picture: lower‑income and value‑oriented shoppers are prioritizing essentials and discounters, while big‑ticket home projects get pushed out. ^[21]

That backdrop makes Home Depot’s cautious tone for 2026 feel less like temporary noise and more like realistic acknowledgment of a slower-growth environment—at least until housing and consumer confidence improve.

How Analysts Are Reacting to Home Depot’s Update

Even with Tuesday’s disappointment, Wall Street is far from abandoning HD. Analyst coverage looks mixed but tilted positive.

1. Consensus Ratings and Price Targets

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they tell a similar story:

StockAnalysis.com:
- 24 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $423
- Implied upside: roughly 23% from Tuesday’s close around $345. ^[22]
TipRanks:
- “Moderate Buy” consensus
- 18 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell in the past 3 months
- Average target near $408, about 16–17% above current levels. ^[23]

In other words, the Street generally sees upside, but expectations have been drifting down.

2. Recent Single-Stock Calls

Some notable calls around and ahead of the Investor Day:

DA Davidson reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $430 price target, positioning Home Depot as a core long‑term holding despite near‑term sluggishness. ^[24]
Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and $406 price target, describing the new 2026 outlook and recovery case as a reasonable base from which upside could emerge if housing improves. ^[25]
Stifel recently reiterated a Hold rating and cut its target from $370 to $350, reflecting lower confidence in outperformance at current valuations. ^[26]

Overall, analysts are converging around a view that Home Depot remains a high‑quality franchise, but near‑term returns may be more a function of macro conditions than company-specific execution.

Strategy and Growth Levers: What Management Emphasized

Despite the cautious numbers, Home Depot did not come across as defensive. At Investor Day, the company leaned into its strategic strengths and long‑term growth levers.

1. “Drive the Core, Win the Pro, and Deliver a Frictionless Experience”

Management reiterated three core pillars:

Drive core and culture – continue to reinforce Home Depot’s brand and in‑store execution.
Deliver a frictionless interconnected experience – invest in digital capabilities, fulfillment, and omnichannel tools that make it easy for customers to shop across online and physical channels.
Win the Pro – deepen relationships with contractors and professional customers, a segment that tends to be higher‑ticket and more recurring. ^[27]

CEO Ted Decker highlighted a roughly $1.1 trillion total addressable home‑improvement market, arguing that Home Depot’s scale and investments give it an edge in taking share even in a sluggish demand environment. ^[28]

2. Store and Network Expansion

The company reminded investors that:

GMS and SRS acquisitions are expected to add about $2 billion in 2025 sales.
Around 12 new stores are planned this year, with over 2,356 retail stores and more than 1,200 SRS locations already in operation across the U.S., Canada and Mexico. ^[29]

These moves are geared toward strengthening Home Depot’s position with Pro customers and large projects, even if consumer DIY demand remains subdued.

3. Digital and Delivery Initiatives

Beyond Investor Day, Home Depot has also been expanding its digital reach. For example, a recent partnership with Instacart in Canada aims to offer same‑day delivery from more than 175 Home Depot Canada stores, underscoring the company’s push toward faster, more convenient e‑commerce options. ^[30]

The Macro Backdrop Heading Into December 10: Fed, Rates, and Market Sentiment

Home Depot doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Tuesday’s broader market narrative matters for how HD might trade tomorrow.

1. Fed Meeting and Rate Cut Odds

The Federal Reserve began its final two‑day policy meeting of 2025 on Tuesday, with a rate decision due Wednesday afternoon.
Markets widely expect another rate cut, with one live blog estimating the probability of a cut at roughly 90%. ^[31]
Investors are watching not just the move itself, but also the Fed’s updated projections for growth, unemployment, and inflation—and the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

A more dovish Fed that signals sustained easing ahead would generally support rate‑sensitive sectors like housing and home improvement over time, but the short‑term reaction could be volatile.

2. Market Tone: Futures, Risk Appetite, and Volatility

Investopedia reported that stock futures were roughly flat Tuesday morning as investors awaited the Fed decision; indexes slipped the day before after flirting with record highs. ^[32]

24/7 Wall St’s live coverage noted that markets were essentially marking time—briefly turning higher but mostly hovering around unchanged levels—as traders waited to see whether the Fed would “grease the rails” for a year‑end rally or tamp down expectations. ^[33]

That context matters: Home Depot’s stock is being repriced against a backdrop of macro uncertainty, not in isolation.

Key Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens on December 10, 2025

Here’s a concise pre‑open checklist for anyone watching HD on Wednesday morning.

1. The New Baseline for 2026 Is Set — and It’s Lower Than Before

The Street now has hard numbers from management: flat to 2% comp growth and up to 4% EPS growth in 2026, with a flat or slightly shrinking overall home‑improvement market. ^[34]
Any pre‑market or early‑session moves in HD are likely to revolve around how investors recalibrate their models to those figures.

2. Watch for Fresh Analyst Notes and Target Revisions

Some firms (e.g., DA Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Stifel, Citi) have already updated their stances in recent days, but more reactions could hit before or just after the open—including target cuts or reiterations. ^[35]
Positive notes emphasizing the “recovery case” could support the stock; more cautious takes focusing on flat EPS could add pressure.

3. Technical Levels Around the Mid‑$340s

After Tuesday’s move, $345ish has become a key reference area—roughly where HD settled both at the close and in after‑hours trading. ^[36]
On the downside, traders will be watching recent lows in the low‑$340s as potential support. On the upside, the mid‑$350s (Tuesday’s intraday highs) now stand out as near‑term resistance, especially if the broader market rallies. ^[37]

4. Fed Decision Looms Over the Entire Session

Even though the Fed announcement comes later in the day, pre‑open futures and early trading may be muted as investors avoid making big bets ahead of the decision. ^[38]
A dovish surprise (or very soft economic projections) could benefit interest‑rate‑sensitive names like HD over the next few weeks; a more hawkish tone could keep pressure on housing and discretionary spending.

5. Keep an Eye on Housing and Retail Peers

Moves in Lowe’s, big‑box retailers, homebuilders, and housing‑related ETFs may create sympathy flows into or out of HD. Reuters highlighted that retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s are under pressure as consumers cut back on expensive renovations and remodels. ^[39]
If housing‑linked stocks show strength ahead of the Fed decision, that could help HD stabilize or rebound.

6. Short-Term vs Long-Term Mindsets

Short‑term traders will likely focus on:
- Pre‑market quotes for HD and U.S. equity futures
- Any overnight analyst upgrades/downgrades
- Early order‑book imbalance (heavy sell or buy interest at the open)
Long‑term investors will be asking:
- Is a high‑quality, category‑dominant retailer now priced for low expectations?
- Does a 2–4% EPS growth profile in 2026 plus the possibility of a market‑recovery scenario justify stepping in while sentiment is subdued?

Longer-Term Takeaways for Home Depot Investors

Stepping back from the tick‑by‑tick moves, Tuesday’s Investor Day leaves us with a few big-picture conclusions:

Quality business, cyclical headwinds
Home Depot remains the dominant U.S. home‑improvement retailer, with strong brand recognition, Pro relationships, and a massive addressable market. But housing affordability, cautious consumers, and high borrowing costs are real barriers to near‑term growth. ^[40]
2025–2026 will likely be a grind, not a surge
Management is effectively guiding investors to expect steady but unspectacular top‑line progress and modest EPS growth at best—unless the housing market improves faster than expected. ^[41]
Upside is tied to housing and Fed policy
If Fed rate cuts ease mortgage rates, housing transactions pick up, and homeowners gain confidence to tackle big projects, the company’s “market recovery case” could come into play, with earnings growth stepping up to mid‑single‑digits or better. ^[42]
Valuation vs. expectations is now front and center
With HD trading in the low‑$340s to mid‑$340s and consensus price targets clustered in the $400–$425 range, the stock offers mid‑teens to low‑20% implied upside—but only if earnings eventually track closer to the recovery scenario than the flat‑growth base case. ^[43]

Final Word (and a Quick Reminder)

For December 10’s opening bell, the crucial context is this:

The story has shifted from “when does the rebound start?” to “what if the rebound is slower and flatter than hoped?”
Yet, Home Depot still commands a powerful franchise, strong cash generation, and a long runway tied to housing, renovation, and professional construction demand.

As always, this article is for information and education only, not individualized financial advice. Before making any trading or investment decisions in Home Depot (HD) or any other stock, consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and the possibility that both macro conditions and company guidance can change quickly.

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