Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) finished Monday’s session under pressure and stayed subdued after the bell as Wall Street digested a fresh price‑target cut, mixed analyst signals, and lingering worries about the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the company’s Investor & Analyst Conference on Tuesday, December 9, 2025.
Below is a detailed look at how Home Depot traded on December 8, what drove the move, and the key storylines investors should watch before the U.S. stock market opens on Tuesday.
1. How Home Depot Stock Traded on December 8, 2025
Regular session
- Close: Home Depot closed Monday at $349.91, down about 1.3% on the day, extending a three‑day slide from last week’s close of $354.61. [1]
- Intraday range: Shares opened at $351.95, hit a high of $352.09, and slipped to an intraday low of $345.70 before recovering some ground by the close. [2]
- Volume: Roughly 6.98 million shares changed hands, almost double the stock’s recent average daily volume near 3.6 million, underscoring how closely traders are watching Home Depot into Tuesday’s event. [3]
After-hours trading
Following the closing bell, after‑hours trading was quiet. By about 6:35 p.m. ET, HD was quoted near $349.60, fractionally below the regular-session close (‑0.1%), suggesting no major new information had hit the tape late Monday. [4]
Bigger picture
Over longer time frames, Home Depot has been a laggard:
- The stock is down roughly 5% over the past month and about 18% over the last 12 months, even as the broader market hovers near record highs. [5]
- HD now trades well below its all‑time high just above $439 set in late 2024. [6]
That context matters heading into an Investor Day that many on the Street view as a chance for management to rebuild confidence in the home‑improvement giant’s growth story.
2. Why Home Depot Sold Off: Oppenheimer’s Cut and Earnings Overhang
Oppenheimer trims target, MarketBeat flags “analyst downgrade” pressure
Monday’s weakness largely traces back to Oppenheimer’s decision to cut its price target on Home Depot from $420 to $405 while maintaining a “market perform” rating. [7]
According to MarketBeat’s recap of the session:
- HD shares fell roughly 1.4% intraday to around $349.54, on a surge in trading volume of nearly 7 million shares—about 92% above the usual average. [8]
- MarketBeat’s data shows a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating on the stock, with 21 Buy, 11 Hold and 2 Sell recommendations and an average price target near $403.50. [9]
In other words, Monday’s sell‑off was not triggered by an outright downgrade to “Sell,” but rather by a tightening of expectations from one of the better‑known firms on Wall Street.
Broker sentiment remains broadly positive
Zacks’ broker‑rating roundup for December 8 notes that Home Depot is still widely recommended by analysts, with the average rating falling in “Buy” territory, although the firm cautions investors not to rely solely on broker enthusiasm when evaluating the stock. [10]
MarketBeat’s news feed reinforces that picture: alongside Oppenheimer’s trim, other analysts have raised or reaffirmed targets and Buy ratings in recent days, leaving investors with a noisy, sometimes contradictory, set of headlines. [11]
That tug‑of‑war is one reason HD’s reaction to Monday’s news was muted rather than panicky: the Street is toning down expectations, not abandoning the story.
3. Fundamentals: Three Straight EPS Misses and Softer 2025 Guidance
The more important driver of sentiment is what Home Depot itself has been saying.
Q3 2025 earnings: sales beat, profit miss (again)
On November 18, 2025, Home Depot reported fiscal Q3 results that beat sales expectations but missed earnings for the third straight quarter: [12]
- Revenue: $41.35 billion vs. analysts’ estimates around $41.10 billion. [13]
- Adjusted EPS: $3.74 vs. consensus around $3.83. [14]
- Comps: Comparable sales were essentially flat, with comparable transactions down about 1.6%, as customers delayed large remodels like kitchen and bathroom projects. [15]
Management cut its full‑year outlook, now guiding:
- Adjusted EPS down about 5% year‑on‑year, vs. a prior forecast for a 2% decline. [16]
- Annual same‑store sales “slightly positive”, below an earlier goal of about 1% growth. [17]
Executives blamed tariff‑driven economic uncertainty, a lack of major storm‑related projects in Q3, and ongoing pressure in the housing market for the shortfall, saying the expected demand boost from lower mortgage rates had not yet materialised. [18]
Legal overhang: shareholder investigation
Those comments have now become part of a shareholder‑rights investigation. On December 3, The Schall Law Firm announced it is examining whether Home Depot misled investors in its Q3 commentary, particularly around attributing weakness to a lack of storms and to “consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing.” [19]
No class action has been filed at this stage, but the headline adds a legal‑risk layer to a story that already features slowing profit growth.
4. What Wall Street Expects From Tuesday’s Investor & Analyst Conference
The biggest near‑term catalyst for HD stock is Home Depot’s 2025 Investor & Analyst Conference, scheduled for Tuesday, December 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a live webcast available through the investor relations site. [20]
Piper Sandler: Overweight with a $450 target
In a note published Monday morning, Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and a $450 price target on Home Depot, framing Investor Day as an opportunity to re‑anchor the long‑term growth narrative: [21]
- The firm expects comparable‑sales improvement starting in early Q1 2026, with potential acceleration as the year progresses.
- It believes Home Depot will focus on multi‑year opportunities in housing recovery and market‑share gains, which Piper thinks can translate into high‑single‑digit EPS growth over time.
- At the same time, the broker does not expect management to offer an especially bullish 2026 outlook, suggesting investors should brace for a still‑cautious near‑term tone. [22]
Piper also highlights that Home Depot has paid dividends for 39 consecutive years and currently yields around 2.6%, underscoring the stock’s appeal to income‑oriented investors even in a choppy macro backdrop. [23]
UBS and others: long‑term positive, near‑term bumpy
Elsewhere on the Street:
- UBS recently reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $445 target, arguing that while the home‑improvement sector is in a period of moderation, Home Depot’s scale, Pro relationships and digital capabilities give it a “solid foundation” to capture underlying demand. [24]
- Other firms, including Evercore ISI and DA Davidson, have reiterated Buy or Market Perform stances with targets generally in the mid‑$300s to mid‑$400s, while Stifel has taken a more cautious view, cutting its target to $350 and keeping a Hold rating. [25]
Taken together, analysts are telling investors to look through the near‑term slowdown while acknowledging that 2025 earnings are under pressure and that the stock’s margin of safety is not as wide as it used to be.
5. Strategic Updates: Instacart, AI Tools and the Pro Customer
Even as macro headwinds bite, Home Depot is investing in technology and partnerships that could support growth when demand eventually normalises.
Instacart partnership in Canada
On December 2, Instacart announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership with The Home Depot Canada, covering more than 175 stores across the country. [26]
Key details:
- Home Depot Canada becomes the first nationwide home‑improvement retailer available on Instacart in Canada, offering delivery in as fast as an hour. [27]
- The collaboration includes Instacart’s “Big & Bulky” fulfillment solution, enabling same‑day delivery for items up to 60 pounds such as tools, home‑furnishing items and renovation supplies. [28]
- A launch promotion offering $20 off purchases of $80 or more (via Instacart) runs through December 8, aimed at capturing holiday‑season projects. [29]
While the revenue impact will be modest initially, the deal shows Home Depot continuing to expand its omnichannel reach, particularly in categories where convenience and speed are becoming decisive for customers.
New AI “blueprint” tools for Pro contractors
A separate report on Monday highlighted that The Home Depot is rolling out a new AI‑powered blueprint tool aimed at professional contractors, designed to make it easier to interpret plans and streamline ordering for complex projects. [30]
The Pro segment remains one of Home Depot’s most important growth engines, and tools that help contractors:
- reduce time spent on estimating,
- minimise material errors, and
- integrate digital ordering more tightly with job‑site workflows
could deepen loyalty and increase wallet share over time, even if the immediate financial impact is limited.
6. Macro Backdrop: Fed, Housing, and a “K‑Shaped” Consumer
Market tone on December 8
Monday’s trading session across Wall Street was cautious:
- U.S. equity markets closed lower as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025 later this week. [31]
- Technology was the only S&P 500 sector to finish positive, while economically sensitive groups such as consumer discretionary and housing‑linked names underperformed. [32]
- The 10‑year Treasury yield edged up to around 4.17%, keeping borrowing costs and mortgage rates elevated relative to the pre‑pandemic era. [33]
For Home Depot, which is tightly tied to housing turnover, renovation activity and consumer confidence, this macro mix is challenging: rates are still high enough to cool big‑ticket projects, even if they’ve retreated from their peaks.
A bifurcated consumer
Several recent analyses suggest that the U.S. consumer is split into two realities:
- Research from MarketBeat comparing Dollar Tree’s surge to Home Depot’s slide argues that budget‑conscious shoppers are trading down, boosting dollar stores while squeezing more discretionary retailers. [34]
- An Economic Times summary of dollar‑store earnings notes that Dollar Tree and Dollar General shares are up 55% and 65% year‑to‑date, respectively, with strong same‑store sales, while many mainstream retailers report negative comps—evidence of a deepening affordability squeeze. [35]
- McKinsey’s latest read on the U.S. consumer describes the 2025 holiday season as marked by economic unease, tighter budgets and “pragmatic” spending, with households trading down in some areas to afford modest splurges in others. [36]
This environment is not ideal for Home Depot:
- Big remodels are easy to postpone.
- DIY customers may scale back projects or opt for cheaper materials.
- Pro contractors can experience project delays as financing conditions tighten.
At the same time, necessary repairs, small projects, and professional maintenance work continue, helping to stabilise revenue even in a tougher macro climate—one reason analysts expect comparable sales to turn slightly positive rather than plunge.
7. Valuation Check: Is HD Cheap Enough?
From a valuation standpoint, Home Depot sits in an in‑between zone: neither a bargain‑basement stock nor an obvious bubble.
- TradingView and Morningstar data show HD at roughly 23–24 times normalised earnings, a modest premium to the overall U.S. equity market. [37]
- The stock sports a dividend yield around 2.5%–2.6%, supported by nearly four decades of uninterrupted dividend payments. [38]
- Analyst price targets range from the low $330s to the mid‑$400s, with the average near $403–$405, implying mid‑teens percentage upside from Monday’s after‑hours level around $350 if forecasts prove correct. [39]
The key question for investors heading into Tuesday is whether management can justify that premium by convincing the market that:
- 2025 truly represents an earnings bottom; and
- initiatives in Pro, digital, and supply‑chain efficiency can restore a more attractive growth and margin profile from 2026 onward.
8. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 9, 2025
Here’s a concise checklist for HD watchers heading into Tuesday’s session:
1. Investor & Analyst Conference (8:30 a.m. ET)
- Tone of guidance: Does management frame 2026 as a transition year with modest growth, or do they outline a more aggressive recovery path?
- Long‑term algorithm: Look for updated multi‑year targets around comparable sales, operating margins, and EPS growth.
- Capital allocation: Any hints of dividend growth, buyback acceleration, or big‑ticket capex (for supply chain, tech, or store remodels) will matter for valuation. [40]
2. Commentary on demand drivers
- Housing and rates: How do executives characterise the impact of mortgage rates and home‑turnover trends on large projects? [41]
- Pro vs. DIY: Are Pro customers holding up better than do‑it‑yourself shoppers, and what does that mean for mix and margins?
- Big projects vs. small jobs: After describing a pull‑forward of pandemic‑era remodel demand, does management see evidence that big projects are returning to “normalised” levels heading into 2026, as Piper Sandler suggests? [42]
3. Strategic initiatives
- Digital & delivery: Any update on Instacart performance in Canada or similar partnerships in the U.S., and how these channels affect profitability. [43]
- AI & productivity tools: Details on the new AI blueprint tools and how Home Depot plans to monetise or differentiate its Pro offering with technology. [44]
4. Legal and governance topics
- Shareholder investigation: While companies rarely comment in depth, investors will watch for any acknowledgement of the Schall Law Firm’s probe or broader governance updates, especially around disclosure practices and risk management. [45]
5. The macro overlay
- Futures and rates: Overnight moves in equity index futures and Treasury yields, as markets continue to handicap the Fed’s December 9–10 policy meeting, could amplify whatever reaction HD gets to its Investor Day messaging. [46]
9. Bottom Line
After Monday’s close, Home Depot stock is stuck in the middle of a complex story:
- The numbers show slowing profit growth and repeated earnings misses.
- The analysts still largely see upside, but are trimming targets and tempering expectations.
- The strategic moves—from Instacart delivery to AI tools for contractors—are promising but will take time to flow through financials.
- The macro backdrop of cautious consumers and elevated rates continues to weigh on big‑ticket home‑improvement spending.
Tuesday’s Investor & Analyst Conference won’t answer every question, but it will help determine whether HD’s recent slide is a buying opportunity or a warning sign that the market’s patience is wearing thin.
For now, investors heading into the December 9 open should focus less on minute‑by‑minute price moves and more on what management says about 2026 and beyond—because that’s what will ultimately drive whether Home Depot’s next big project is a durable recovery in its share price.
References
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