Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is under pressure this morning after reporting third‑quarter fiscal 2025 results that missed profit expectations and came with a weaker earnings outlook for the full year. The home‑improvement giant grew sales and turned comps slightly positive again, but margins, guidance and management’s tone on the consumer and housing market are weighing on HD stock today. [1]
Key takeaways for HD stock today, 18 November 2025
- HD shares are trading lower in premarket trade (roughly 2–3% down) after the company missed Wall Street’s Q3 earnings estimates and cut its profit outlook. [2]
- Q3 FY2025 net sales rose 2.8% to about $41.4 billion, slightly ahead of analyst forecasts, helped by the recent acquisition of GMS Inc. [3]
- Comparable sales grew just 0.2% (U.S. +0.1%), well below the roughly 1–1.4% increase many analysts were expecting. [4]
- GAAP EPS slipped to $3.62 and adjusted EPS to $3.74, missing consensus estimates around $3.81–$3.84 and declining slightly year over year. [5]
- Management now expects fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS to fall about 5% vs last year, a sharper drop than its prior forecast of roughly a 2% decline, even as it nudged its sales growth outlook up to ~3%. [6]
- CEO Ted Decker blamed weaker‑than‑hoped demand on a lack of storms, consumer uncertainty and ongoing pressure in the housing market, all of which are cooling some key big‑ticket categories. [7]
Below is a deep dive into what happened, why HD stock is down today, and what it could mean for investors.
HD stock today: how Home Depot is trading on November 18, 2025
Home Depot went into earnings trading around $358 per share, roughly the prior session’s close and around the mid‑point of its 52‑week range of about $326 to $439. [8]
Following this morning’s Q3 release and guidance cut, multiple outlets report that HD shares are down roughly 2–3% in premarket trading, underperforming S&P 500 futures and weighing on Dow futures given Home Depot’s role as a Dow component. [9]
So far in 2025, the stock is down around 8% year to date, compared with a gain of roughly 13% for the S&P 500 Index, reflecting investor concern about a prolonged slowdown in home‑improvement spending. [10]
Q3 2025: sales beat but comps and profits underwhelm
Top‑line growth helped by the GMS deal
For the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended November 2, 2025), Home Depot reported:
- Net sales of about $41.4 billion, up 2.8% from approximately $40.2 billion a year earlier. [11]
- Around $900 million of that revenue came from the acquisition of GMS Inc., representing roughly eight weeks of sales, highlighting that a meaningful chunk of the growth was inorganic. [12]
Stripping out the contribution from GMS, underlying revenue growth was modest – well under 1% – showing how sluggish organic demand remains.
Comps creep positive, but miss the Street
Same‑store performance improved versus last year but still disappointed:
- Global comparable sales increased 0.2%, with U.S. comps up 0.1%. [13]
- That’s a notable improvement from the prior year’s negative comps, but well below expectations. One research summary notes that consensus had been looking for around 1.3% comparable sales growth, so the print was a clear miss on that metric. [14]
Under the surface, the sales mix shows the same pattern we’ve seen all year:
- Comparable customer transactions fell about 1.6%, meaning fewer trips.
- Average ticket rose roughly 1.8%, helped by inflation, mix and pro‑customer projects. [15]
In short: Home Depot is making a bit more per visit, but still seeing slightly fewer shoppers, especially for larger projects.
Profits: EPS slips and misses consensus
On the bottom line, the numbers were softer:
- Net earnings were about $3.6 billion, down roughly 1.3% year over year.
- GAAP diluted EPS declined to $3.62 from $3.67, a drop of about 1.4%. [16]
- Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $3.74, down slightly from $3.78 a year earlier and below analyst estimates of roughly $3.81–$3.84. [17]
Margins took a hit from higher operating expenses and storm‑sensitive categories that didn’t deliver their usual seasonal boost.
What management is saying: storms, housing and a more cautious consumer
CEO Ted Decker was unusually blunt in explaining why results fell short of internal expectations:
- He highlighted an absence of major storms in the third quarter, which normally drive strong demand for categories like roofing, generators and plywood. [18]
- Management also pointed to “consumer uncertainty” and ongoing pressure in the housing market, which are causing customers—especially homeowners contemplating big renovations—to delay or scale down projects. [19]
- Decker noted that day‑to‑day demand was “relatively stable” sequentially, but the company had been counting on a stronger Q3 that never materialized.
AP and other outlets describe the quarter as “mixed”: sales grew and comps turned slightly positive, but a storm‑light season, softer housing market and more cautious shoppers kept results below what Home Depot and Wall Street were hoping for. [20]
Guidance reset: sales a bit better, profits clearly lower
The most market‑moving part of today’s update is the cut to full‑year earnings guidance, even as the company nudged its sales outlook slightly higher.
According to Home Depot’s updated fiscal 2025 guidance: [21]
- Total sales are now expected to grow about 3.0% for the year (vs a prior forecast of ~2.8%), with GMS expected to add around $2 billion in incremental sales.
- Comparable sales are now expected to be only “slightly positive”, down from a previous forecast of roughly +1%.
- Reported diluted EPS is expected to decline around 6% from $14.91 in fiscal 2024.
- Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to fall about 5% from $15.24, worse than the company’s earlier expectation of about a 2% decline.
In other words:
Home Depot expects a bit more revenue but meaningfully less profit per share than it previously guided, as margin pressure, mix shifts and integration costs weigh on earnings.
External coverage from outlets like Bloomberg and Dow Jones frame this as Home Depot “cutting its outlook” amid an extended slowdown in home‑improvement activity. [22]
What Wall Street expected vs what Home Depot delivered
Heading into today’s earnings:
- Nasdaq’s pre‑market preview showed analysts were looking for Q3 EPS of about $3.81, a small increase year on year, after two consecutive quarters of minor earnings misses. [23]
- Options markets were pricing in roughly a 4.1% move (up or down) in HD stock on the report—about double its typical post‑earnings swing over the past year. [24]
- Several previews had penciled in revenue around $41.1–$41.2 billion and adjusted EPS near $3.84. [25]
Compared with that setup, today’s results look like this:
- Revenue: Slight beat. Reported sales of ~$41.4 billion edged above consensus. [26]
- Comps: Clear miss. 0.2% vs expectations around 1.3%. [27]
- Adjusted EPS: Miss. $3.74 vs estimates around $3.81–$3.84. [28]
- Guidance: Significant downgrade to adjusted EPS, modestly higher sales. [29]
That combination—soft comps, an EPS miss and a profit warning—explains why the stock is trading lower this morning despite the revenue beat.
Analyst sentiment and recent downgrades
Even before today’s numbers, not everyone on Wall Street was fully comfortable with Home Depot’s near‑term outlook:
- Stifel downgraded HD from “Buy” to “Hold” four days ago, citing expectations for weaker same‑store sales and concerns about the home‑improvement slowdown. The firm also cut its price target to about $370. [30]
- A GuruFocus snapshot put HD’s P/E near 25x ahead of earnings—rich for a retailer facing decelerating growth and cyclical headwinds. [31]
That said, broader analyst consensus remains constructive:
- A recent summary shows an average 12‑month price target in the ~$438–$440 range, implying around 20–22% upside from pre‑earnings levels, with a “Buy” / “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. [32]
Today’s report will likely trigger a round of estimate cuts and target tweaks, but as of now the Street still generally views Home Depot as a high‑quality, long‑term compounder facing a difficult part of the cycle.
What big investors are doing with HD stock
Alongside the earnings headlines, there are also fresh signals from institutional investors filed around today’s date:
- Empowered Funds LLC increased its HD stake by 16% in the second quarter, adding just over 12,000 shares to bring its holding to roughly 87,800 shares (valued at about $32 million at the time of filing). [33]
- Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC lifted its position by about 45% in Q2, according to another MarketBeat‑summarized filing released today. [34]
- In October, the Parnassus Value Equity Fund made Home Depot one of its more significant additions, purchasing over 255,000 shares and giving HD around 2.2% weight in its portfolio. [35]
These moves suggest that some long‑term, fundamentals‑focused investors are willing to add to HD on weakness, even as short‑term sentiment has turned more cautious.
Is HD stock attractive after this earnings miss? Key factors to consider (not financial advice)
Whether HD is a buy, hold or avoid after today’s sell‑off depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance. A few balanced points to weigh:
Reasons some investors stay bullish
- Dominant market position
Home Depot remains the largest home‑improvement retailer in the world, with more than 2,300 stores plus over 1,200 SRS locations and a massive pro‑customer network. [36] - Long‑term housing tailwinds
Even with today’s soft housing market, the long‑run need for repairs, remodeling and household formation hasn’t disappeared—just been delayed. Eventually, lower rates and improved affordability could unlock pent‑up demand for home projects. - Solid balance sheet, strong cash generation and dividends
GuruFocus data show HD with a forward dividend yield around 2.5–2.6%, along with a long history of dividend growth and share buybacks. [37] - Ongoing strategic investments
The company continues to invest in its “Complex Pro” initiatives, supply chain improvements and acquisitions like GMS, aiming to deepen its relationship with professional contractors and capture more large‑project spend over time. [38]
Risks and bear‑case arguments
- Cyclical headwinds could last longer than expected
If high rates and weak housing activity persist, Home Depot could face several more quarters of sluggish comps and margin pressure. Today’s guidance cut is a reminder that management itself is bracing for a tougher environment. [39] - Valuation isn’t cheap for a decelerating grower
A mid‑20s earnings multiple leaves less room for error if profit growth remains negative in 2025 and only modestly recovers in 2026. - Storm‑driven categories add volatility
This quarter shows how weather‑dependent categories can swing results. A lack of storms hurt Q3; unusually heavy storms in the future can help—but they also make forecasting more complex. [40] - Competition and project mix pressure
With Lowe’s reporting tomorrow and smaller chains and online players fighting for share, any missteps in execution or pricing could erode Home Depot’s advantage. [41]
Because I can’t assess your personal situation, I can’t say whether you specifically should buy, sell or hold HD. But broadly:
- Short‑term traders may see more volatility as the market digests guidance cuts, analyst downgrades and macro worries.
- Long‑term investors who believe in the housing cycle and Home Depot’s competitive moat may view today’s weakness as an opportunity—provided they’re comfortable with potentially choppy results over the next few quarters.
If you’re considering a position, it’s wise to:
- Compare HD’s valuation and fundamentals with peers like Lowe’s.
- Stress‑test your thesis against scenarios where rates stay higher for longer.
- Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making large or leveraged bets.
What to watch next for HD stock
Here are the key catalysts and data points likely to matter for Home Depot shares after today:
- Lowe’s earnings (tomorrow)
Lowe’s is set to report its own results on Wednesday. If Lowe’s confirms the same pressures—weak big‑ticket demand, cautious consumers—markets may treat the slowdown as sector‑wide. If Lowe’s looks stronger, investors might question whether Home Depot is losing share at the margin. [42] - Home Depot’s earnings call later today
The company is hosting its conference call this morning, where investors will listen closely for color on:- Pro vs DIY trends
- Big‑ticket vs smaller projects
- Early signs for Q4 and holiday‑season demand
- Synergies and integration risks around GMS and SRS. [43]
- Macro data: housing, rates and consumer confidence
- Mortgage rates, housing starts and existing‑home sales data over the coming months will shape expectations for 2026 demand.
- Any change in Fed rate‑cut expectations could quickly shift sentiment on HD, which Jim Cramer and others have framed as a stock that benefits if investors become more confident in near‑term rate cuts. [44]
- Further analyst revisions and rating changes
Watch for target and rating updates over the next few days. Another wave of downgrades could keep pressure on the stock, while stabilizing or more constructive notes might help HD find a floor.
References
1. ir.homedepot.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. ir.homedepot.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. ir.homedepot.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.bloomberg.com, 10. www.bloomberg.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. www.smartkarma.com, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. ir.homedepot.com, 19. ir.homedepot.com, 20. www.newsday.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. www.bloomberg.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com, 27. www.smartkarma.com, 28. ir.homedepot.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.gurufocus.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. ir.homedepot.com, 37. www.gurufocus.com, 38. ir.homedepot.com, 39. www.morningstar.com, 40. ir.homedepot.com, 41. www.marketscreener.com, 42. www.marketscreener.com, 43. ir.homedepot.com, 44. www.insidermonkey.com
