Date: December 10, 2025 – All data and news as of U.S. market close or latest available.
Key Takeaways for Home Depot (HD) Stock
- Share price: Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is trading around $347 per share, up modestly (about 0.6%) in today’s session.
- 52‑week range: The stock has traded in roughly a $326–$428 band over the past year and is down in the mid‑teens to high‑teens percentage from its 52‑week high, with negative double‑digit total returns over the last year. [1]
- 2025 guidance reaffirmed: Management still expects ~3% sales growth, slightly positive comps and ~5% decline in adjusted EPS in fiscal 2025 versus 2024. [2]
- 2026 baseline outlook is cautious: For fiscal 2026, Home Depot now guides to flat to +2% comparable sales, 2.5–4.5% total sales growth, and EPS growth of 0–4%, assuming a sluggish home improvement market. [3]
- “Recovery case” if housing rebounds: In a stronger housing scenario, management sees 4–5% comp growth and 5–6% total sales growth, with mid‑to‑high single‑digit EPS growth. [4]
- Wall Street reaction: Several banks cut price targets today (RBC to $366, Telsey to $410, UBS to $430), but most maintain positive or neutral ratings. [5]
- Consensus still bullish: Across 24 covering analysts, the average 12‑month price target is about $423, implying around 20–25% potential upside from current levels, with an overall “Buy” consensus. [6]
- Short‑term technicals are weaker: At least one trading model (StockInvest) labels HD as technically weak in a falling trend for the near term. [7]
Below is a deeper look at today’s news, forecasts and analyses affecting Home Depot stock.
1. Home Depot Stock Price Snapshot – December 10, 2025
Home Depot shares are trading around $347 in Wednesday trading, up slightly on the day and roughly in line with broader large‑cap retail peers.
Over the last twelve months, the stock has:
- Delivered a negative total return in the high‑teens percent
- Traded between about $326 at the low and $428 at the high [8]
Several data providers also show a year‑to‑date total return around –11%, underperforming the S&P 500 but still well above many cyclical housing‑exposed names. [9]
In other words: HD is off its highs, not “cheap,” but no longer priced for perfection, which matters when we look at guidance and valuations.
2. Investor Day 2025: What Management Just Told the Market
Home Depot’s Investor & Analyst Conference on December 9, 2025 is the main driver of today’s news cycle around the stock. The company used the event to reaffirm 2025 guidance, unveil a preliminary 2026 outlook, and outline a market recovery scenario tied to housing. [10]
2.1 Fiscal 2025 Guidance (Reaffirmed)
For fiscal 2025 (a 52‑week year vs. 53 weeks in 2024), the company expects: [11]
- Total sales growth: ~3%
- Includes about $2 billion in incremental sales from acquired distributor GMS.
- Comparable sales:Slightly positive
- New store openings: About 12
- Gross margin: ~33.2%
- Operating margin: ~12.6% (adjusted ~13.0%)
- EPS:
- GAAP diluted EPS to decline about 6% vs. 2024’s $14.91
- Adjusted diluted EPS down ~5% vs. 2024’s $15.24
This 2025 guidance broadly matches the post‑earnings cut from November, when the company said full‑year adjusted EPS would fall about 5% instead of the previously guided 2% decline, citing a softer demand environment. [12]
2.2 2026 Baseline Outlook: “Slow Grind” Rather Than Snap‑Back
The new preliminary 2026 outlook is what spooked some investors. Management is effectively saying: don’t expect a big home‑improvement rebound next year. [13]
For fiscal 2026, Home Depot now anticipates:
- Home improvement market growth: Between –1% and +1%
- Comparable sales: About flat to +2%
- Total sales growth: About 2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin:12.4–12.6% (adjusted 12.8–13.0%)
- EPS growth:Flat to +4% (GAAP and adjusted)
That’s a solid, but unspectacular profile: low single‑digit growth in both sales and earnings, even after a 2025 EPS decline.
2.3 Market Recovery & Accelerated Recovery Cases
Investors did get one more hopeful set of numbers: a “Market Recovery Case” and an even more optimistic “Accelerated Recovery Case” tied to stronger housing activity and big‑ticket projects. [14]
In the Market Recovery Case, Home Depot models:
- Total sales growth:5–6%
- Comparable sales:4–5%
- EPS growth:Mid‑ to high‑single‑digits
Management argues that once higher mortgage rates ease and homeowners return to big projects, home improvement can again grow faster than the overall economy, and Home Depot aims to outgrow that market. [15]
What spooked the market is that this recovery scenario is not the base case for 2026 – it’s a “when housing comes back” scenario.
3. Today’s Other Big Corporate Headline: The Home Depot Creator Portal
Separate from the guidance story, Home Depot also launched the Home Depot Creator Portal today, a new platform aimed at digital content creators, influencers and DIY personalities. [16]
Key details:
- It’s a centralized hub where creators can:
- Find campaign opportunities
- Access content ideas and training resources
- Build curated product collections and storefronts
- Use shoppable links to earn commissions
- Thousands of creators are already enrolled, with applications now open broadly.
- The initial push is timed around a major global soccer event next year, with a “Starting Lineup” of high‑profile partners including Trinity Rodman and Dude Perfect, among others. [17]
From a stock perspective, this is:
- Unlikely to move the earnings needle near‑term
- More important as a brand and demand‑generation play, reinforcing Home Depot’s reach across DIYers, homeowners and professional audiences on social platforms
For Google News and Discover readers, this highlights that Home Depot is investing in modern marketing and affiliate‑style channels at the same time it is tightening its guidance.
4. Fundamental Backdrop: Q3 Earnings, Housing and Consumer Demand
Today’s outlook update sits on top of a complicated near‑term backdrop.
4.1 Q3 2025 Results and Guidance Cut
On November 18, 2025, Home Depot reported Q3 2025 results that beat sales expectations but missed on earnings, and it cut the full‑year profit outlook. [18]
Selected highlights:
- Revenue: $41.35 billion, up 2.8% year over year and ahead of ~$41.1 billion consensus. [19]
- Comparable sales: Roughly 0.2% growth, better than last year’s 1.3% decline, but well below the ~1.3–1.4% increase analysts expected. [20]
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74, missing expectations of $3.84 and marking the third consecutive quarter of EPS misses. [21]
- New guidance: Full‑year adjusted EPS now seen down about 5%, versus a prior forecast of a ~2% decline, even as sales guidance rose to 3% growth (driven partly by the GMS acquisition). [22]
Management and outside analysts blamed:
- Stalled housing activity
- Consumers delaying big‑ticket renovations
- A cost‑of‑living squeeze that has shifted budgets back toward necessities and services [23]
4.2 Macro Wild Card: The Fed and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve’s December decision is another key overhang. A recent market analysis piece singled out consumer‑discretionary brands like Home Depot as potential beneficiaries if lower interest rates boost disposable income and confidence – but also as vulnerable if the Fed signals a “hawkish cut” and weaker growth. [24]
- Lower rates could help:
- Mortgage refinancing
- Home equity borrowing
- Large project spending
- A cautious Fed tone, by contrast, could extend the soft patch for big‑ticket home improvements into 2026.
5. How Wall Street Is Reacting Today
Following the Investor Day and updated 2026 outlook, analysts have been busy revising their Home Depot models and targets.
5.1 Target Cuts, But Mostly Still Positive Ratings
Notable moves today and in recent days include:
- Telsey Advisory Group
- Rating: “Outperform” (unchanged)
- Price target: Cut to $410 from $430 due to a reduced 2026 outlook, but they still see Home Depot as a long‑term winner. [25]
- RBC Capital Markets
- New price target: $366
- Rationale: Reflects a more cautious stance on housing recovery timing; based on ~24× RBC’s 2026 EPS estimate of $15.25, slightly above the current P/E multiple (~23.7×). [26]
- UBS
- Target: Cut to $430 from $445, signaling some multiple compression and slower earnings growth than previously expected, while still reflecting upside from current levels. [27]
- Earlier in December / late November (summarized via GuruFocus):
- Stifel: “Hold,” PT to $350 from $370
- Oppenheimer: “Perform,” PT to $405 from $420
- Citigroup: “Buy,” PT to $407 from $422 [28]
So the overall pattern is:
Lowered price targets and more conservative numbers, but very few outright bearish calls.
5.2 “Positioned for Continued Share Gains” – But Debates on Timing
A new note today titled “Home Depot ’positioned for continued share gains’ says analyst after meeting” captures the nuanced bullish‑but‑cautious tone. [29]
Key themes from that note:
- The analyst argues that Home Depot is structurally well positioned to keep gaining market share, especially via its Complex Pro strategy (serving larger, professional contractors), omnichannel investments and supply‑chain scale.
- However, they emphasize that the timing of a macro “inflection point” in demand and visible progress in Complex Pro will be the main debate heading into 2026.
- In the near term, they even prefer Lowe’s (LOW) on valuation and cost‑saving potential, highlighting that HD’s premium multiple leaves less room for error. [30]
5.3 Consensus Forecasts and Upside
According to StockAnalysis, which aggregates forecasts from 24 analysts: [31]
- Consensus rating:“Buy”
- Average 12‑month target: ~$423 per share
- Target range:$350 (low) – $497 (high)
- Implied upside: Roughly 20–25% from the current ~$347 price, based on that average target. [32]
That upside reflects:
- A belief that HD can grow earnings again after 2025’s dip, and
- Confidence in its competitive moat – scale, Pro customer focus, and a huge addressable market (~$1.1 trillion by management’s estimate). [33]
6. Valuation Check: Is Home Depot Stock Expensive or Fairly Priced?
Valuation opinions are mixed – and that’s important for anyone reading this through Google News and wondering, “Is HD stock cheap now?”
6.1 Discounted Cash Flow vs. P/E View
A fresh analysis from Simply Wall St suggests that: [34]
- A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model currently finds Home Depot about 16–17% overvalued versus their intrinsic value estimate.
- On a P/E basis, HD trades around 23.6× earnings – above the broader specialty retail average (~18.9×), but slightly below a peer group average around 25.9×.
- They calculate a “fair” P/E of roughly 23.8× for Home Depot, implying the stock is in the right ballpark on earnings, not dramatically mispriced.
So under DCF, HD looks somewhat expensive; under P/E relative to peers, it looks reasonably valued for a high‑quality, mature retailer.
6.2 Technical / Trading Perspective
Short‑term trading service StockInvest is more negative in tone: [35]
- It highlights several negative technical signals and a wide, falling trend,
- Concluding that the stock may continue to perform weakly over the next several days or weeks.
That’s a reminder that fundamental investors and technical traders can see the same stock very differently.
7. Home Depot Stock Forecast for 2026 and Beyond
Putting guidance and analyst commentary together, here’s what the current market narrative around Home Depot looks like.
7.1 Base Case: Slow Normalization, Not a Boom
Under Home Depot’s own 2026 baseline:
- Sales and EPS growth are low single‑digit, reflecting a muted home improvement market. [36]
- Margins stay solidly in the low‑teens, but not back to peak pandemic levels.
- Growth is supported by:
Analysts broadly model EPS growth returning to the mid‑single digits beyond 2026, assuming housing activity gradually recovers.
7.2 Market Recovery Scenario: Housing Comes Back
If mortgage rates ease and housing transactions normalize:
- Management’s Market Recovery Case points to:
- 4–5% comp growth,
- 5–6% total sales growth, and
- mid‑ to high‑single‑digit EPS growth. [39]
That’s closer to the pre‑2022 “steady compounder” profile that made HD a core holding for many portfolios.
Several bullish analysts therefore see current weakness as positioning Home Depot for the next housing upcycle, especially given:
- An aging U.S. housing stock
- Structural demand for maintenance and remodeling
- The company’s strong balance sheet and consistent dividend record [40]
7.3 Short‑Term Overhangs
However, the near‑term forecast is clouded by:
- Soft demand for big‑ticket projects like kitchen and bathroom remodels [41]
- Higher interest rates and consumer caution
- Margin pressures from wages, logistics and tariffs [42]
- Ongoing integration of acquisitions and investments that weigh on profitability before contributing fully to growth [43]
That’s why even some bullish analysts are dialing back targets and tempering expectations for 2026.
8. Key Risks to Watch for HD Stock
For readers tracking Home Depot on Google News and Discover, the main risks currently in focus are:
- Housing and interest‑rate risk
- If mortgage rates stay high or housing transactions remain depressed longer than expected, both baseline and recovery scenarios could prove optimistic. [44]
- Consumer spending mix
- Households may continue to prioritize experiences, travel and services over large home projects, a trend several retail analysts have flagged this holiday season. [45]
- Competitive pressures
- Lowe’s remains a strong rival, and at least one analyst currently prefers LOW on valuation and cost‑saving potential, even while calling HD a long‑term share‑gainer. [46]
- Execution and integration risk
- The success of acquisitions like SRS and GMS, as well as strategies like Complex Pro and the new Creator portal, will determine whether HD can grow faster than the sluggish market it’s modeling. [47]
- Macro and Fed policy risk
- A “hawkish cut” or signs of a harder economic landing could further pressure discretionary categories, including home improvement. [48]
9. What This Means for Investors
To sum up today’s picture for Home Depot stock:
- Near term (next 6–12 months):
- Fundamentals are choppy – sales are growing modestly, but profits are under pressure and guidance is conservative.
- The stock trades at a premium but not extreme multiple, with mixed short‑term technical signals and some skepticism about the timing of a rebound. [49]
- Medium to long term (2026+):
- Management and most of Wall Street still view Home Depot as a structural winner in a very large market, with strong Pro and omnichannel positioning and a clear road map for growth once housing normalizes. [50]
- Valuation & risk‑reward:
- Consensus targets suggest meaningful upside if the company delivers its baseline and recovery cases.
- More cautious views, including DCF‑based models and short‑term trading tools, argue that the stock may not yet fully reflect the risks of a slow recovery. [51]
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Anyone considering HD stock should weigh these factors against their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio diversification needs – and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. corporate.homedepot.com, 3. corporate.homedepot.com, 4. corporate.homedepot.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockinvest.us, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.financecharts.com, 10. corporate.homedepot.com, 11. corporate.homedepot.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. corporate.homedepot.com, 14. corporate.homedepot.com, 15. corporate.homedepot.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.emarketer.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. markets.financialcontent.com, 25. m.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. corporate.homedepot.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. corporate.homedepot.com, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. www.barrons.com, 39. corporate.homedepot.com, 40. simplywall.st, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. corporate.homedepot.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. businessofhome.com, 46. www.investing.com, 47. corporate.homedepot.com, 48. markets.financialcontent.com, 49. simplywall.st, 50. corporate.homedepot.com, 51. simplywall.st
