Home Depot (HD) Stock Today: Q3 2025 Earnings Miss, Dividend Deadline and December 2025 Outlook

As of Wednesday, December 3, 2025, shares of The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) closed at $357.91, up about 1.1% on the day, and roughly 18% below their 52‑week high of $436.36 set in December 2024. Trading volume was slightly above average, reflecting renewed interest after a turbulent November. ^[1]

That renewed interest isn’t random. Over the past few days Home Depot has:

Reported Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings that beat on sales but missed on profit and cut full‑year guidance. ^[2]
Announced a $2.30 quarterly dividend with an ex‑dividend date of December 4, 2025. ^[3]
Seen unusually heavy call option activity, suggesting options traders are leaning bullish. ^[4]
Expanded its Instacart delivery partnership in Canada in time for the holidays. ^[5]
Become the subject of shareholder fraud investigations by at least two law firms following the earnings‑related sell‑off. ^[6]

Here’s a detailed look at what’s happening with Home Depot stock right now, and how Wall Street is framing the outlook into 2026.

1. Home Depot Stock Price and Performance in December 2025

Latest close (Dec 3, 2025): $357.91, +1.1% on the day. ^[7]
52‑week range: roughly $326 – $436, so shares are trading near the lower third of their one‑year range. ^[8]
Valuation: recent articles peg Home Depot around 24× earnings with a PEG ratio above 3 and beta near 1.0, meaning it tends to move roughly with the broader market. ^[9]

Data providers differ a bit on the exact year‑to‑date return, but most show negative to low‑single‑digit performance in 2025, compared with a double‑digit gain for the S&P 500, underlining relative underperformance after the Q3 disappointment. ^[10]

2. Q3 2025 Earnings: Modest Sales Growth, Profit Pressure, Guidance Cut

On November 18, 2025, Home Depot reported results for its fiscal third quarter (three months ended November 2, 2025): ^[11]

Net sales:$41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year.
Comparable sales: up 0.2% overall, 0.1% in the U.S.
Net earnings:$3.6 billion, down about 1% vs. last year.
Diluted EPS (GAAP):$3.62 vs. $3.67 a year ago (‑1.4%).
Adjusted EPS (non‑GAAP):$3.74 vs. $3.78, missing consensus by roughly $0.09. ^[12]

Under the hood:

Customer transactions fell about 1.6%, but average ticket rose about 1.8%, showing shoppers are still spending but making slightly fewer trips. ^[13]
Nine‑month sales grew 5.6% to about $126.5 billion, yet net earnings for that period dipped nearly 2%, signaling margin pressure. ^[14]

Management partially attributed the miss to a “lack of storms” in Q3, which meant weaker demand in categories like roofing and generators, as well as “consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing” that left expected demand upside on the sidelines. ^[15]

Updated Fiscal 2025 Guidance

Alongside Q3 results, Home Depot lowered its outlook for the current fiscal year (a 52‑week year vs. 53 weeks in 2024): ^[16]

Total sales growth: now targeting ≈3% (helped by the GMS acquisition contributing an estimated $2 billion in sales).
Comparable sales: expected to be only slightly positive for the year (previously ~1% growth).
Operating margin: guided to about 12.6%, 13% on an adjusted basis.
Adjusted EPS: now expected to fall around 5% vs. the prior year, deeper than the earlier forecast of about a 2% decline.

The guidance cut and softer margins triggered a single‑day share price drop of roughly 6% to around $336 on November 18. ^[17]

3. Housing Slump, Weather, and the “Structural Reset” Debate

The Q3 story fits into a broader theme: a sluggish housing and remodeling cycle.

Coverage from MarketWatch and others notes that Home Depot’s stock had been down in the mid‑teens percentage range for 2025 at the time of the earnings release, even as the S&P 500 gained over 12%. ^[18]
Management keeps pointing to lower home turnover, slower home price appreciation, and fewer major storms as headwinds to big‑ticket projects. ^[19]

Some analysts now ask whether Home Depot faces a temporary cyclical slowdown or a deeper “structural demand reset.”

Zacks recently made Home Depot its “Bear of the Day”, citing three straight EPS misses, the EPS guidance cut, and lingering concerns that post‑pandemic demand was pulled forward, leaving a softer baseline. ^[20]
A separate Zacks piece questions whether today’s softer comps hint at a new, lower growth trend if housing and consumer confidence stay weak. TS2 Tech

On the other side, management and several bulls argue that under‑investment in repair and remodel has built up a backlog of demand:

CEO Ted Decker has talked about a sizeable “underspend” in normal repair and remodel activity, estimated by some industry analyses at tens of billions of dollars, which could support future growth once housing and rates stabilize. ^[21]
Housing research cited in recent news flow suggests a gradual U.S. housing market recovery starting around 2026, which would provide a more favorable backdrop for big‑ticket home improvement. ^[22]

For now, the market is caught between those two narratives: cyclical slowdown vs. structural reset.

4. “Bold Move” on Pricing: Home Depot’s Low‑Price Strategy

At a time when inflation remains a major consumer pain point, Home Depot is leaning hard on its price‑leadership story.

A widely circulated article from TheStreet, syndicated via Yahoo Finance, describes the company’s pricing push as a “bold move to keep prices low”, highlighting efforts to preserve value for shoppers even as costs rise. ^[23]

Key components of that strategy include:

Price match guarantees:
- In the U.S., Home Depot’s Price Match Guarantee lets shoppers request a match to qualifying competitors’ prices, including online, for identical items. ^[24]
- In Canada, the company goes further: if a customer finds a lower price on an identical in‑stock item from a local retailer, Home Depot will match it and beat it by 10%. ^[25]
Third‑party analyses note that this “low price guarantee” is central to Home Depot’s “nobody beats our prices” posture in a price‑sensitive retail environment. ^[26]

Why this matters for the stock:

Pros: Reinforcing price competitiveness can protect traffic and market share at a time when DIY shoppers are trading down and pros are scrutinizing every job’s cost structure.
Cons: Strong price competition can pressure margins, especially when sales growth is modest and big‑ticket items are slowing. That tension—volume vs. margin—is at the heart of many cautious analyst notes.

5. Instacart Partnership: Expanding Convenience and Omnichannel Reach

On the growth side, Home Depot is pushing deeper into delivery and digital fulfillment.

On December 3, trade outlet Hardlines reported that Home Depot Canada has partnered with Instacart to offer same‑day delivery—sometimes in as little as an hour—from about 176 of its 182 Canadian stores, just in time for the holiday season. ^[27]
Instacart’s own newswire and brokerage news feeds frame it as a nationwide partnership that puts “thousands of home improvement products” into the Instacart app, following earlier U.S. initiatives. ^[28]

This matters because:

It broadens last‑mile options for smaller repair jobs and urgent needs, potentially capturing incremental DIY and pro orders.
It adds another layer to Home Depot’s omnichannel strategy, which already includes buy‑online‑pickup‑in‑store (BOPIS), curbside, and direct‑to‑jobsite delivery.
Q3 commentary also highlighted double‑digit online comp growth, showing that digital remains a relative bright spot even as store traffic is under pressure. ^[29]

6. Dividend Snapshot and December 4, 2025 Ex‑Dividend Date

Income‑oriented investors are watching Home Depot’s dividend carefully this week.

According to MarketBeat and brokerage news feeds: ^[30]

Quarterly dividend:$2.30 per share.
Annualized dividend:$9.20, implying a yield around 2.5–2.6% at current prices.
Ex‑dividend date:Thursday, December 4, 2025.
Payment date:Thursday, December 18, 2025.
Payout ratio: currently in the low‑60% range of earnings.

Home Depot has a long record of dividend growth and aggressive buybacks, which is why many investors view it as a core “blue‑chip income” holding despite near‑term macro noise. ^[31]

7. Options Market: Unusual Call Activity Signals Speculative Bullishness

One of the most striking headlines on December 3 is the surge in HD call option volume.

MarketBeat reports that traders bought 49,246 Home Depot call options—about a 65% jump over typical call volume—on a day when the stock rose around 1.1% to the mid‑$350s. ^[32]
A detailed options column on Barchart notes heavy trading in short‑dated out‑of‑the‑money calls at the $367.50 strike expiring December 5, with over 5,400 contracts changing hands. ^[33]

The Barchart piece interprets this flow as bullish positioning and builds a valuation case based on free cash flow (FCF):

Home Depot generated about $10+ billion in free cash flow over the first nine months of fiscal 2025, with an FCF margin above 8%. ^[34]
Using FCF yield and Street forecasts, the author derives price targets in the high‑$370s to low‑$410s, implying mid‑single to mid‑teens upside from mid‑$350 levels. ^[35]

While short‑term option activity is not a guarantee of future price direction, it does show renewed speculative interest in the name following November’s sell‑off.

8. Institutional Ownership and New Legal Overhang

Invesco’s Trim, but Strong Institutional Base

A new MarketBeat report on December 3 highlights updated institutional holdings: ^[36]

Invesco Ltd. trimmed its Home Depot stake by about 2.3% in Q2, but still owns roughly 3.1 million shares, worth about $1.14 billion and representing ~0.31% of the company.
A host of smaller funds have initiated or increased positions, and in aggregate, about 71% of HD shares are held by institutions and hedge funds.

That level of institutional ownership is typical for a Dow component and tends to stabilize the shareholder base, even when short‑term sentiment swings.

Securities‑Fraud Investigations

On the legal side, two law firms have announced investigations related to the November 18 earnings release:

On November 21, Pomerantz LLP said it was examining whether Home Depot and certain officers engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful practices, citing the Q3 guidance cut and the stock’s 6% drop after management attributed the miss largely to weather and housing headwinds. ^[37]
On December 3, The Schall Law Firm launched a similar investigation, again focusing on whether prior statements adequately reflected the risks that later materialized in Q3 and 2025 guidance. ^[38]

These announcements are investigations only—not court findings. Such law‑firm press releases are common after earnings‑related drops in large‑cap stocks, and many never lead to material settlements. Still, they add a headline overhang that some institutional investors will monitor.

9. What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying About Home Depot Stock

Despite the wobbly 2025 performance, most equity analysts remain positive on HD—but with more nuanced language and lower targets.

Consensus Ratings and Price Targets

Several data platforms give a snapshot of current Street expectations:

StockAnalysis.com:
- 23 analysts cover HD.
- Consensus rating:“Strong Buy.”
- Average 12‑month price target:$424.22, implying about 18.5% upside from recent prices.
- Target range: $350 (low) to $497 (high). ^[39]
TipRanks:
- 24 analysts in the last three months.
- Consensus:“Moderate Buy” (18 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell).
- Average target:$409, with a high of $497 and low of $320, implying roughly 15% upside from the mid‑$350s. ^[40]
MarketBeat / Insider‑linked surveys:
- Show a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target around $403–404, reflecting target cuts after Q3. ^[41]

Taken together, the Street is broadly saying: “High‑quality business, some upside left, but not a screaming bargain.”

Recent Target Cuts

Several high‑profile firms have trimmed targets following the November results:

Citigroup: Buy rating maintained but price target cut from $422 to $407, citing softer earnings and guidance. ^[42]
Stifel: Holds a Hold rating, lowered target from $370 to $350, signaling limited upside near current prices. ^[43]
RBC, Evercore ISI, UBS, TD Cowen and others have adjusted targets into roughly the $376–$445 range, mostly retaining Buy or Outperform ratings but acknowledging near‑term headwinds. ^[44]

On the more cautious side:

A Seeking Alpha contributor recently rated HD “Hold” with a $378 target, arguing that while rate cuts and housing recovery should help, the stock may only track the market from here at current valuations. ^[45]
Quant platforms like AlphaSpread estimate intrinsic value closer to the high‑$270s, implying 20%+ overvaluation if growth doesn’t accelerate. TS2 Tech+1

10. Long‑Term Perspective: Dividend Giant or Overpriced Compounder?

Recent commentary from outlets like Motley Fool and independent blogs sets up a classic bull vs. bear framing for long‑term investors. ^[46]

Bullish Arguments

Supporters of the stock typically point to:

Category dominance: Home Depot remains the largest home‑improvement retailer in North America with strong scale advantages, vendor relationships, and brand recognition. ^[47]
Robust profitability: Net margins around 9%, gross margins in the low‑30% range, and operating margins near 12–13% are impressive for a brick‑and‑mortar retailer. TS2 Tech+1
Capital returns: The combination of a 2.5%+ dividend yield and consistent buybacks has historically driven strong total returns for patient shareholders. ^[48]
Housing cycle leverage: If home turnover, remodeling, and pro construction reaccelerate in 2026+, earnings growth could normalize to the mid‑single‑digit range or better, supporting current valuations. TS2 Tech+1

Bearish Arguments

Skeptics counter with:

Valuation vs. growth: With the stock around 24× earnings and EPS expected to decline this year and grow modestly next, some argue the multiple is rich for a mature retailer facing macro headwinds. ^[49]
Structural risk: Zacks and others warn that softer comps and repeated misses could reflect a new, lower demand baseline after the pandemic boom, not just a temporary air pocket. ^[50]
Leverage: Debt‑to‑equity above 4× (reflecting years of buybacks) means HD is leveraged, even if cash flow comfortably covers interest today. ^[51]
Legal and reputational noise: Ongoing shareholder investigations, periodic protests, and viral PR moments (like a widely shared “tiny house built in‑store”) add headline risk, even if they aren’t yet denting sales. ^[52]

11. Key Catalyst: Home Depot’s December 9, 2025 Investor & Analyst Day

Looking ahead, one of the next major information events is Home Depot’s 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on December 9. TS2 Tech

Analysts and investors will listen closely for:

Updated housing and macro commentary: Any signs that home turnover and renovation demand are stabilizing—or worsening.
Integration progress on the GMS acquisition and strategy for pro customers, including new AI‑driven estimating tools meant to keep contractors “on time and on budget.” ^[53]
Early results from the Instacart Canada partnership and insights on digital growth. ^[54]
Thoughts on future dividend growth and buybacks, given elevated leverage and a softer earnings trajectory. ^[55]

What management says—and how the market reacts—could set the tone for HD into early 2026.

12. Bottom Line: How to Read Home Depot Stock on December 3, 2025

Putting all of today’s news and recent analysis together:

Fundamentals: Home Depot remains a highly profitable, cash‑generative franchise, but Q3 showed that even this giant is not immune to a weak housing cycle and cautious consumers. ^[56]
Valuation: Most analysts see mid‑teens upside from current levels, yet quant models suggest the stock may already be pricing in a fair amount of recovery, leaving less margin of safety if growth disappoints. ^[57]
Sentiment:
- Options traders are leaning short‑term bullish, as seen in the spike in call volume. ^[58]
- Analysts are mostly bullish but more cautious than a year ago, with a cluster of target cuts since Q3. ^[59]
- Law firms have opened investigations, adding a modest legal overhang, though nothing has been proven. ^[60]

For long‑term investors evaluating HD, the key questions now are:

Do you believe in a housing and remodeling rebound over the next few years that justifies paying a premium multiple today?
How much weight do you put on structural vs. cyclical risk in home‑improvement demand?
Is a ~2.5% dividend yield plus mid‑single‑digit EPS growth attractive enough at current prices, given competing opportunities in the market?

Those are inherently personal, risk‑tolerance‑dependent judgments. This article is for information and news purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering an investment in Home Depot should review the company’s filings, listen to upcoming management commentary, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial professional.