Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) heads into the Monday, Dec. 15 U.S. market open with investor attention still anchored to two big storylines: a newly issued preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook that came in below many Wall Street expectations, and a run of analyst target changes following the company’s investor conference. [1]
HD was trading around $359.65 late Friday, after touching $360.55 intraday and dipping as low as $356.06, according to the latest market data available.
Below is a practical, investor-focused breakdown of the latest news, forecasts, and key factors likely to shape HD trading as the new week begins.
Where Home Depot stock stands right now
Home Depot shares have lagged the broader market in 2025, reflecting a tougher demand backdrop for big-ticket home projects and a housing market that has yet to produce a clear “all-clear” signal for discretionary renovation spend. Reuters reported the stock has fallen about 10% year to date, versus a 16% rise in the S&P 500 in the same period. [2]
That performance gap matters because the company’s latest messaging suggests management expects a recovery—just not at the pace investors may have been hoping for. [3]
The biggest catalyst: Home Depot’s fiscal 2026 outlook (and why it disappointed)
At its investor event and strategic update, Home Depot laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 framework that implies a slow-growth environment:
- Home improvement market: between -1% and +1%
- Comparable sales:flat to +2%
- Total sales growth:+2.5% to +4.5%
- Operating margin:~12.4% to 12.6%
- Diluted EPS growth:flat to +4% [4]
The market reaction: Reuters noted Home Depot’s flat-to-2% same-store sales outlook was below the analyst average expectation of 2.34% (LSEG data), and its EPS growth view of flat-to-4% was below an analyst expectation of 5.6%. [5]
Management’s core message was essentially “not yet.” CFO Richard McPhail said the company hadn’t seen “a catalyst or an inflection in housing activity,” and that customer uncertainty could persist into next year. [6]
The “Market Recovery Case” investors are watching
Home Depot also published a more upbeat market recovery case—a scenario that assumes housing activity and larger-project spending improve:
- Total sales growth:~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth:~4% to 5%
- EPS growth:mid-to-high single digits [7]
For Monday’s open, a key question is whether investors treat that recovery case as a credible “earnings power” blueprint—or as a longer-dated scenario that doesn’t justify paying up today.
Fiscal 2025 guidance remains intact (and GMS is a major swing factor)
Home Depot reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guide, including:
- Total sales growth: ~3%
- Comparable sales:slightly positive (on a comparable 52-week basis)
- New stores: ~12
- Operating margin: ~12.6%
- EPS: expected to decline ~6% versus fiscal 2024 [8]
A notable detail for investors tracking execution: the company expects GMS (a building products distributor it acquired) to contribute about $2 billion in incremental sales in fiscal 2025. [9]
What the last earnings report said about demand
Home Depot’s most recent quarterly update (third quarter fiscal 2025) underscored how sensitive results remain to housing activity—and even to weather-related categories.
Key numbers from the company’s Q3 release:
- Sales:$41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales:+0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
- GAAP EPS:$3.62 (vs. $3.67 a year earlier)
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74 (vs. $3.78 a year earlier) [10]
Home Depot said results missed expectations partly due to a “lack of storms” pressuring some categories, and that consumer uncertainty and housing pressure were weighing on home improvement demand. [11]
Why “GMS integration” is now part of the core HD narrative
The Q3 report also quantified how meaningful the acquisition is to near-term growth: total sales included about $900 million from the GMS deal, representing roughly eight weeks of sales in the quarter. [12]
Wall Street’s read-through: targets reset, but “housing timing” is the debate
Following the investor day, several analysts adjusted targets and/or ratings—often landing on the same theme: Home Depot’s strategic positioning looks strong, but the timing of a housing-driven rebound remains uncertain.
RBC: target trimmed on “recovery timing”
RBC Capital lowered its price target to $366 from $376 and kept a Sector Perform rating, citing concerns that the housing recovery “might be further in the future than many are hoping for.” [13]
UBS: still bullish on the risk-reward
UBS lowered its price target to $430 from $445 but maintained a Buy rating, arguing the updated framework resets expectations to attainable levels and improves the stock’s risk-reward profile. [14]
Stifel: downgrade to Hold
Stifel downgraded Home Depot from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $370 from $440, pointing to caution around the home improvement category and the possibility that demand remains “stagnant” into difficult seasonal comparisons. [15]
For Monday morning, investors will be watching whether additional banks follow with target cuts (short-term sentiment pressure) or whether the market treats the reset as a “cleaner base” for 2026–2027 upside if housing turns.
Strategic pillars: “Win the Pro,” expand the ecosystem, keep opening stores
A key reason Home Depot can maintain a long-term bull case even during a sluggish cycle: management is framing the company as an underpenetrated share gainer in a huge market—especially with Pros.
From the investor conference transcript, Home Depot said it estimates:
- Total addressable market: about $1.1 trillion
- Consumer TAM:$500 billion
- Pro TAM:$600 billion
- Market share: only around 15% [16]
It also highlighted the scale of its footprint and growth plan, including a commitment to open roughly 15 to 20 new stores per year “for the foreseeable future,” while also emphasizing its large e-commerce operation (more than $25 billion in sales, per the transcript). [17]
Those figures don’t guarantee near-term upside—but they help explain why many analysts still frame HD as a “quality compounder” if/when the macro cycle turns.
New headlines investors may be weighing heading into Monday
1) Cybersecurity exposure reported by TechCrunch
TechCrunch reported that a security researcher found a published access token tied to a Home Depot employee, which allegedly enabled access to private GitHub repositories and potentially to internal systems related to fulfillment and inventory management. The report said the issue was fixed after TechCrunch contacted the company, and that Home Depot did not provide substantive comment on follow-up questions. [18]
For HD stock, this is less about immediate financial impact (none has been quantified publicly in that report) and more about reputational risk, potential remediation costs, and whether investors begin applying a higher “operational risk discount” to large retailers with complex tech stacks.
2) Retail theft ring headlines
Separately, a national theft-ring case tied to alleged thefts from over 100 Home Depot stores has been in the news, with reported losses around $2.2 million and significant recoveries by law enforcement. [19]
Retail theft is not new to big-box operators, but headlines can revive investor focus on shrink and loss prevention spending—especially if broader data later suggests rising incidents.
3) Creator economy push: “Home Depot Creator” portal
Home Depot also announced the launch of a “creator-first” portal designed to connect digital creators with the brand, including commissions through shoppable links and tools to track performance—part of a broader effort to keep traffic flowing through digital channels and product discovery. [20]
This isn’t likely to move the stock by itself on Monday, but it fits the longer-term narrative around interconnected retail and marketing efficiency.
What to watch after the opening bell on Dec. 15
Housing and consumer-spending signals remain the main driver
Home Depot’s leadership has been explicit that housing activity is still missing a clear inflection point. [21]
That makes the week’s economic data especially relevant for sentiment around housing-linked retailers.
A week-ahead preview from S&P Global flagged U.S. building permits and housing starts (Nov) as key upcoming releases, alongside other major U.S. data points. [22] Market calendars also list key U.S. releases and Fed-speaker events beginning Monday. [23]
Dividend payment date
Home Depot’s next dividend is scheduled as $2.30 per share, payable Dec. 18, 2025, with an ex-date of Dec. 4 (already passed). [24]
That means Monday’s buyers won’t capture the upcoming payment, but the dividend remains a support point for longer-term holders who focus on income and capital returns.
The bottom line for HD stock before Monday’s open
Home Depot enters Monday with a clearer—but more conservative—near-term outlook. The company’s preliminary 2026 framework points to a slow-growth home improvement environment, and Wall Street is actively resetting targets around the question of when housing activity rebounds. [25]
The bull case is still rooted in scale, Pro penetration, acquisitions, and share gains in a very large market. The bear case is that the housing catalyst takes longer than investors expect, keeping big-ticket demand and comps subdued. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. techcrunch.com, 19. people.com, 20. ir.homedepot.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.spglobal.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com
