Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) finished Wednesday’s session with a rare bright spot for investors in a market that broadly sold off. After the closing bell on December 17, 2025, the home-improvement giant remained in focus not because of an earnings report, but because of (1) renewed analyst commentary on the company’s path to a housing-led demand recovery and (2) a packed U.S. macro calendar set for Thursday morning, December 18, led by Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Home Depot stock after the bell: where HD ended the day
Home Depot shares rose 1.15% to $356.75 at the close on Wednesday, outperforming the major indexes as the S&P 500 fell 1.16% and the Dow slipped 0.47%, according to MarketWatch’s market wrap for the stock. [1]
In extended trading, HD was little changed, hovering around $357 as of late evening hours—suggesting investors were largely waiting for Thursday’s macro catalysts rather than pushing the stock materially in either direction after the bell. [2]
Two additional context points from Wednesday’s tape that matter heading into Thursday:
- HD is still well off its 52-week high (MarketWatch put the distance at about 16% below the peak). [3]
- Volume was lighter than average, a sign the move higher did not come with unusually heavy conviction buying. [4]
Why Home Depot outperformed on Dec. 17 even as the market fell
There wasn’t a major Home Depot corporate headline on Wednesday (no earnings, no guidance update, no acquisition announcement). Instead, HD’s outperformance appears tied to a familiar mix for the name: analyst re-rating talk and macro expectations around rates, inflation, and the housing cycle.
MarketWatch specifically noted HD outperformed several large retail and e-commerce peers on the day, including Lowe’s (up, but less than HD) and Amazon (down). [5]
That relative strength matters because HD has spent much of the last year trading more like a “rate-and-housing” proxy than a pure defensive retailer: when investors feel better about inflation, borrowing costs, and big-ticket project demand, HD tends to benefit.
Analyst spotlight: Truist raises Home Depot price target to $390
One of the most widely circulated analyst updates on Wednesday came from Truist Securities, which raised its price target on Home Depot to $390 from $375 and reiterated a Buy rating. [6]
Truist’s message was nuanced:
- The firm described current demand “stable,” but not accelerating as much as some had hoped earlier in the year. [7]
- Truist argued the setup could still turn favorable if improving conditions (including recent rate-cut dynamics) translate into stronger spending—pointing to a potentially multi-year upcycle once the category inflects. [8]
- It also flagged a tactical catalyst: a potentially strong tax refund season in early 2026 that could lift sentiment and spending in the near term. [9]
From an “HD stock tomorrow” standpoint, the key takeaway is simple: analysts are still debating timing, not direction. Bulls largely agree on Home Depot’s longer-term positioning but remain split on when the spending cycle reaccelerates meaningfully.
The fundamental backdrop: Home Depot’s own 2026 roadmap is already on the table
While Wednesday’s market action was driven by trading and analyst commentary, it’s important to remember Home Depot already laid out a framework for what it expects next year.
At its December 9, 2025 investor conference, Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance and provided a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook. Among the highlights, the company outlined:
- FY2025: total sales growth ~3%, comps “slightly positive” (52-week comparable basis), and EPS expected to decline year over year (with additional detail around margins, capex, and interest expense). [10]
- FY2026 (preliminary): home improvement market roughly -1% to +1%, comparable sales flat to +2%, and diluted EPS flat to +4%. [11]
- A “Market Recovery Case” that assumes a stronger housing-led rebound and higher project spend, with faster profit growth. [12]
This matters for Thursday because it frames how investors will interpret macro data like CPI: if inflation looks cooler and yields fall, traders may lean into the narrative that a housing and renovation recovery becomes more plausible—supporting HD’s longer-duration thesis.
The biggest “before the open” catalysts for HD on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025
If you’re watching Home Depot stock into Thursday morning, the most important thing to understand is that HD may trade more on rates and risk sentiment than on any company-specific headline.
1) CPI hits at 8:30 a.m. ET — and this release has a twist
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) schedule shows the November 2025 CPI is set for release on December 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [13]
But this CPI release is not “business as usual.” BLS has said that due to a 2025 lapse in appropriations that disrupted data collection, the November CPI release will not include 1‑month percent changes for November where October data are missing, and BLS will not publish certain October CPI aggregates (like “all items” and core) at all. [14]
Why that matters for HD and the market:
- CPI often drives Treasury yields and rate expectations in seconds.
- Home Depot is sensitive to those moves because the housing ecosystem (mortgages, home equity, big projects) is rate-linked.
- If the data are harder to interpret (because of missing October components), markets could see extra volatility—or at least a more cautious “wait for details” reaction.
2) Jobless claims and Philly Fed: another 8:30 a.m. ET pile-up
Econoday’s U.S. calendar lists Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index also arriving at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, alongside CPI and other releases. [15]
Investing.com similarly previewed Thursday as a morning where CPI, jobless claims, and Philly Fed data could “significantly sway market dynamics,” increasing the odds of broad-market volatility. [16]
For HD investors, these releases matter less as “direct demand indicators” and more as inputs into:
- whether the economy looks strong enough to support discretionary spending, and
- whether the rate environment is likely to ease further in 2026 (supporting housing turnover and large renovation projects).
3) Rate-cut narrative is alive again — listen to the Fed chatter behind it
Even without a major Fed policy decision on Thursday, rate expectations remain headline-sensitive. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would “absolutely” defend central bank independence and argued there is still room to cut rates further as inflation risks decline and job growth weakens. [17]
MarketWatch also highlighted Waller’s view that inflation could start falling in the next 3–4 months and that rates could potentially come down at a moderate pace. [18]
This matters for HD because the bull case increasingly leans on a “gradual normalization” story: easing inflation → lower rates → better housing activity → bigger projects → better sales leverage.
Headline risks and side narratives investors are watching tonight
Not all the attention around Home Depot is purely financial. Two additional stories in Wednesday’s news cycle may not move HD tick-for-tick at the open, but they can influence sentiment and headline risk.
Immigration enforcement spotlight (reputational / foot-traffic risk)
The Financial Times published a report describing Home Depot stores and parking lots as an “unwitting focal point” in immigration enforcement actions, noting protests and boycotts have emerged in some areas and that legal experts debate how much control retailers can exert in public-facing spaces. [19]
For markets, this is typically a second-order factor unless it escalates into widespread disruption. Still, it’s the kind of story that can reappear suddenly, especially if viral footage or local protests spread—so it’s on the radar.
Instacart scrutiny (indirect partner ecosystem risk)
Reuters reported Wednesday that the FTC is probing Instacart over its AI-driven pricing tool, a development that pushed Instacart shares down in after-hours trading. [20]
This is not a direct Home Depot corporate issue, but it’s relevant as part of the broader retail platform and delivery ecosystem—and Home Depot has worked with delivery partners in various markets (including partnerships highlighted by Instacart in other regions). [21]
The practical takeaway: regulatory scrutiny around “digital pricing tactics” is expanding, and that can periodically spill over into how investors think about the retail tech stack, promotions, and customer trust—especially in an inflation-sensitive environment.
Levels to watch: what the technical picture says after hours
If you’re watching HD for a reaction trade around Thursday’s data, the most actionable “levels” often come from where the stock is clustering and where it’s likely to meet supply/demand quickly.
Technical screens late Wednesday pointed to:
- a near-term resistance zone roughly in the $357–$360 area, and
- support in the mid‑$350s (with broader support bands below that depending on timeframe). [22]
Treat these as reference points, not predictions—especially on a CPI morning when correlations can tighten and breakouts can be headline-driven.
What to know before the market opens Thursday: a quick checklist for HD investors
Here’s the clean “tomorrow morning” setup:
- HD closed at $356.75 (+1.15%) on Dec. 17, beating the market on a down day. [23]
- After-hours trading was essentially flat around $357 later in the evening. [24]
- Truist raised its price target to $390 and reiterated Buy, emphasizing long-term appeal even as near-term demand remains “stable” rather than surging. [25]
- Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET is the macro flashpoint: CPI (with known data-collection caveats), jobless claims, and the Philly Fed index hit at once—prime conditions for index and rates volatility. [26]
- The key debate remains timing: whether 2026 becomes the year Home Depot’s recovery case starts to look more like a base case—or stays deferred. [27]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. corporate.homedepot.com, 11. corporate.homedepot.com, 12. corporate.homedepot.com, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. us.econoday.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.ft.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.instacart.com, 22. www.chartmill.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.bls.gov, 27. corporate.homedepot.com
