Home Depot (NYSE: HD) heads into Friday’s session (December 26, 2025) with investors still digesting a cautious early outlook for fiscal 2026, a mixed most-recent quarter, and a housing-and-rate backdrop that management says is still weighing on big-ticket home improvement demand.
Here’s what to know before the U.S. stock market opens on Dec. 26—including the freshest company updates, Street expectations, and the catalysts most likely to matter when trading resumes after Christmas.
First, a quick reality check on the calendar and the setup
U.S. equity markets were closed on Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day), and the NYSE closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24. Normal NYSE core trading hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with a pre-opening session beginning at 6:30 a.m. ET. [1]
Home Depot shares last traded around $347 in the most recent session ahead of Christmas.
Holiday-week trading can amplify moves on headlines because liquidity is often thinner than usual—something to keep in mind if you’re watching HD at the open.
The headline investors are focused on: Home Depot’s early fiscal 2026 outlook
The biggest current driver for Home Depot stock isn’t a single product announcement—it’s the company’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook delivered at its Investor and Analyst Conference on Dec. 9, 2025.
Home Depot’s early view for fiscal 2026 includes:
- Home improvement market:-1% to +1%
- Comparable sales (comps):flat to +2%
- Total sales growth:+2.5% to +4.5%
- Operating margin:~12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted ~12.8% to 13.0%)
- Diluted EPS growth:flat to +4% (also flat to +4% on an adjusted basis) [2]
Why this matters: that range effectively tells the market that management expects another “grind” year unless housing activity improves meaningfully.
How that compares to Wall Street expectations
In coverage of the investor-day outlook, Reuters reported that Home Depot’s implied comp/EPS expectations for 2026 came in below what analysts were modeling at the time (with Reuters citing Street expectations around +2.34% comp growth and about +5.6% adjusted EPS growth). [3]
That gap—company caution vs. Street optimism—is often where near-term stock volatility comes from. If Home Depot can show even small signs that demand is stabilizing, the stock can react sharply because expectations have been reset lower; if the housing market stays sluggish, investors may keep pressure on the multiple.
Don’t miss this: Home Depot also laid out a “market recovery case”
Alongside the base outlook, Home Depot also published a market recovery case—essentially, “what results could look like if housing activity and bigger-project spend return with momentum.”
That scenario calls for:
- Total sales growth:~5% to 6%
- Total comparable sales growth:~4% to 5%
- Operating profit growth faster than sales
- EPS growth:mid-to-high single digits [4]
This is important context for HD investors: management is acknowledging that the upside is still there, but it’s explicitly tied to housing turning—not simply to better execution.
What Home Depot reaffirmed for fiscal 2025—and what it implies heading into the next earnings cycle
At the same Dec. 9 update, Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance (noting fiscal 2025 is a 52-week year vs. fiscal 2024’s 53 weeks).
Key fiscal 2025 guideposts include:
- Total sales growth: ~3% (with GMS expected to contribute ~$2 billion incremental sales)
- Comparable sales:slightly positive on a comparable 52-week basis
- Gross margin: ~33.2%
- Operating margin: ~12.6% (adjusted ~13.0%)
- Diluted EPS: expected to decline ~6% vs. fiscal 2024
- Adjusted diluted EPS: expected to decline ~5% vs. fiscal 2024 [5]
The takeaway: Home Depot is still guiding to sales growth, but it’s also guiding to earnings pressure, which keeps the market’s attention on margins, mix (DIY vs. Pro), and cost inflation.
The most recent quarter: Q3 fiscal 2025 showed modest sales growth, but demand remained uneven
Home Depot’s latest reported quarter (Q3 fiscal 2025, reported Nov. 18, 2025) included:
- Sales:$41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Comps:+0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
- GAAP EPS:$3.62
- Adjusted EPS:$3.74
- The company said total sales included ~$900 million from the GMS acquisition (about eight weeks of sales in the quarter) [6]
Management attributed the miss versus expectations largely to a lack of storms (which can boost repair demand), plus continued housing-related pressure on larger discretionary projects. [7]
Reuters also highlighted that Home Depot reported flat comps and a decline in comparable transactions, with executives noting a widely expected pickup from easing rates had not shown up as hoped. [8]
Strategic moves still in play: “Win the Pro,” acquisitions, and tools that increase wallet share
Even with near-term housing pressure, Home Depot continues to lean into a strategy built around professional contractors (“Pro”) and faster, more integrated fulfillment.
1) Building-supply expansion: GMS + SRS
Home Depot announced that it and its subsidiary SRS Distribution completed the acquisition of GMS on Sept. 4, 2025, describing it as expanding capabilities in specialty building products distribution. [9]
The company has also been very clear that fiscal 2025 sales growth is being supported by the acquisition contribution (with GMS called out explicitly in guidance). [10]
2) New AI tool aimed at contractor workflows
On Nov. 19, 2025, Home Depot announced an AI-powered Blueprint Takeoffs tool aimed at professional renovators/remodelers/builders. The company says it can produce a full materials list and quote for a single-family project blueprint within days, versus a process that historically could take weeks—while steering purchasing back through Home Depot. [11]
For HD stock watchers, this fits a familiar investment question: can Home Depot keep expanding its “Pro ecosystem” enough to grow share even when the overall market is flat?
3) Creator Portal: marketing meets commerce
On Dec. 10, 2025, Home Depot also launched a Creator portal designed to connect content creators with the Home Depot brand and suppliers, including shoppable links and commission opportunities—explicitly framed as driving “new revenue opportunities.” [12]
This is unlikely to move the stock alone, but it reinforces a broader push to make Home Depot more “digitally native” in how it acquires demand.
Dividends and buybacks: what income investors should know right now
Dividend: $2.30 quarterly (and a long streak)
Home Depot declared a $2.30 per share quarterly cash dividend payable Dec. 18, 2025 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 4, 2025, marking the 155th consecutive quarter of paying a cash dividend. [13]
At roughly $347 per share, that run-rate dividend implies an annualized yield in the neighborhood of ~2.6% (math based on $2.30 x 4). [14]
Buybacks: still paused
One critical detail that can get overlooked in casual “HD stock” conversations: share repurchases remain paused.
In Home Depot’s fiscal Q3 2025 Form 10‑Q, the company stated that:
- It had a $15.0 billion repurchase authorization approved in August 2023
- As of Nov. 2, 2025, about $11.7 billion remained available
- But it paused share repurchases in March 2024 and had not resumed repurchase activity as of Nov. 2, 2025 [15]
Implication: in the near term, EPS growth is more dependent on operations and margins than on financial engineering from buybacks.
Analyst forecasts: where the “bar” is set for HD stock heading into 2026
Analyst targets shift constantly, but they’re still useful as a “sentiment temperature check.”
- MarketBeat shows an average 12‑month price target around $402 (with a wide high/low range). [16]
- TipRanks similarly shows an average target around $402, and labels the consensus as Moderate Buy (based on the set of analysts it tracks). [17]
A practical way to read this: despite near-term caution from management, many analysts still see HD as a high-quality compounder—but the stock’s next major leg up likely requires either (1) a clearer housing recovery, or (2) evidence that Home Depot can grow share and protect margins in a flat market.
What to watch specifically on Friday, Dec. 26, when the market opens
1) The holiday-week tape (and seasonality)
MarketWatch noted that Dec. 26 has historically been a reliably positive trading day for the S&P 500, though seasonality is never a guarantee. [18]
That matters because HD often trades with broader consumer-discretionary sentiment during thin holiday liquidity.
2) Housing and consumer confidence signals
Home Depot’s demand is tightly linked to housing turnover, financing conditions, and consumer willingness to take on large projects.
- AP reported that U.S. consumer confidence slipped in December, with tariffs and inflation among top concerns—an environment that can make big-ticket renovations easier to postpone. [19]
- Investopedia summarized several 2026 home-price forecasts (including NAR, Fannie Mae, Zillow), underscoring that housing is expected to rise in some outlooks but with meaningful uncertainty by region and rate levels. [20]
3) Scheduled macro releases (light day, but not “nothing”)
The New York Fed’s Economic Indicators Calendar shows the New York Fed Staff Nowcast scheduled for 11:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 26. It’s not typically a market-mover on its own, but it contributes to the broader “growth expectations” narrative. [21]
4) Where the stock sits versus its recent extremes
Home Depot closed well below its 52‑week high earlier this year; MarketWatch previously cited a 52‑week high of $426.75 (reached Sept. 17) and a Dec. 19 close around $345. [22]
When a mega-cap retailer is meaningfully off highs, the market can become more sensitive to incremental improvements in comps, transactions, or margin commentary.
5) The next big catalyst: earnings (estimated)
Home Depot has not confirmed its next earnings date publicly, but MarketBeat lists an estimated next report date of Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026, based on prior-year timing. [23]
For many investors, that means the period from now until late February is primarily about:
- any revisions to the housing/rate narrative,
- channel checks on home improvement demand,
- and any company-specific updates on Pro momentum and integration benefits.
The balanced bull-and-bear case for Home Depot stock into the open
Reasons bulls stay interested
- A dominant brand with scale and logistics advantages, reinforced by “interconnected retail” execution.
- A clear strategy to “win the Pro,” supported by acquisitions and workflow tools that can pull more contractor spend into the ecosystem. [24]
- A durable dividend track record. [25]
What bears focus on
- Management itself is signaling a potentially flat home improvement market in fiscal 2026, and the initial 2026 outlook came in below some Street expectations. [26]
- Continued sensitivity to housing turnover, financing costs, and consumer confidence—especially for big-ticket discretionary projects. [27]
- Limited EPS “support” from buybacks while repurchases remain paused. [28]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market conditions can change quickly, especially around holidays and major macro headlines.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. ir.homedepot.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. ir.homedepot.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. ir.homedepot.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.newyorkfed.org, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.sec.gov
