Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with investors weighing a cautious company outlook, a still-choppy U.S. housing backdrop, and a steady stream of analyst revisions following its December investor conference. The stock ended the latest session at $345, extending a two-day slide and sitting well below its September peak—even as management argues it is positioned to gain share as the market eventually recovers. [1]
Below is a complete, up-to-date roundup of the most important Home Depot stock news, forecasts, and market analysis available on 20.12.2025 (December 20, 2025)—including management’s fiscal 2026 outlook, what Wall Street expects next, and the risks investors are watching.
Home Depot stock price check: where HD stands on December 20, 2025
Home Depot shares most recently traded around $345 (reflecting the latest available market print), following a sharp -2.81% decline in the prior regular session (Friday, December 19), when the broader U.S. equity market finished higher. [2]
That drop left HD roughly 19% below its 52-week high (set in mid-September, according to market data coverage), underscoring how sensitive the stock remains to the housing cycle and expectations for big-ticket project demand. [3]
The biggest HD catalyst right now: Home Depot’s cautious 2026 outlook
The most consequential recent driver for Home Depot stock is management’s December 9, 2025 strategic update at its Investor and Analyst Conference, where the company:
- Reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance, and
- Issued a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, plus a separate “market recovery case.” [4]
Fiscal 2025 guidance (reaffirmed)
In its Dec. 9 update, Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 expectations that include:
- Total sales growth ~3%
- Comparable sales slightly positive (on a comparable 52-week basis)
- Gross margin ~33.2%
- Operating margin ~12.6% (adjusted ~13.0%)
- EPS expected to decline ~6% (adjusted EPS down ~5%) versus fiscal 2024 [5]
Management also said GMS (acquired via its SRS distribution business) is expected to contribute ~$2 billion in incremental sales to fiscal 2025. [6]
Preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook (the headline)
Home Depot’s initial view for fiscal 2026 is notably conservative:
- Home improvement market: -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales growth: flat to +2%
- Total sales growth: ~2.5% to 4.5%
- EPS growth: flat to +4% (including adjusted EPS guidance in the same range) [7]
Why the market reacted: Reuters noted that Home Depot’s implied growth looked below consensus expectations at the time of the outlook, citing LSEG-compiled estimates for comps and EPS growth that were higher than Home Depot’s preliminary ranges. [8]
“Market recovery case”: what could change if housing improves
Alongside the baseline outlook, Home Depot also shared a more optimistic “market recovery case” tied to improving housing activity and larger-project spending:
- Total sales growth: ~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth: ~4% to 5%
- EPS growth: mid-to-high single digits [9]
That framework matters for the stock because it effectively outlines the conditions under which Home Depot believes operating leverage and bigger-ticket demand can return—without requiring investors to guess what “recovery” means in numbers.
Latest earnings snapshot: Q3 fiscal 2025 results show resilience, but not a breakout
The most recent earnings report (Q3 fiscal 2025, released November 18, 2025) painted a familiar picture: stable demand in pockets, but consumers still cautious, and a housing market not yet providing the tailwind many expected.
Home Depot reported:
- Revenue of $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year-over-year
- Comparable sales up 0.2% (U.S. comps up 0.1%)
- Net earnings of $3.6 billion (EPS $3.62)
- Adjusted EPS $3.74 [10]
Management explicitly pointed to consumer uncertainty and continued housing pressure as factors weighing on home improvement demand, and noted that an expected pickup in demand did not materialize. [11]
Reuters’ coverage around that earnings release also highlighted how tariffs and macro uncertainty were complicating the outlook for larger remodel projects and DIY demand. [12]
Home Depot’s “Pro” push: why GMS (and SRS) are central to the long-term HD stock thesis
A key strategic storyline for Home Depot stock in 2025 has been the company’s expansion deeper into professional-grade distribution and jobsite delivery.
GMS acquisition completion (through SRS)
Home Depot announced it completed the acquisition of GMS Inc. on September 4, 2025 through its specialty trade distribution subsidiary, SRS Distribution, for an enterprise value (including net debt) of approximately $5.5 billion. [13]
GMS adds distribution scale in categories such as drywall, ceilings, and steel framing—areas more aligned with professional contractors than weekend DIY shoppers. [14]
Why this matters in a slow housing market
When housing turnover is sluggish, big discretionary remodels can stall—but jobsite supply, maintenance, repair, and smaller professional projects can prove more durable. Reuters has repeatedly framed Home Depot’s acquisition strategy as a way to offset softer DIY demand and capture more “Pro” wallet share. [15]
AI and operations: Blueprint Takeoffs is a near-term “Pro” lever
Home Depot has also leaned into productivity tools aimed at contractors. On November 19, 2025, the company announced an AI-powered “Blueprint Takeoffs” tool intended to generate faster, more accurate material lists and estimates for single-family projects. [16]
Industry coverage characterized the tool as strategically important because it can move Home Depot earlier into the project workflow—where estimating and procurement decisions are made. [17]
For HD stock watchers, the takeaway is straightforward: Home Depot is investing to win Pros not only on price and availability, but also on speed, quoting, and workflow—especially valuable when end-market demand is uneven.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets still point higher, but revisions show caution
Analyst consensus price targets (December 2025)
As of late December, widely followed analyst-aggregation sources show an average price target around the low $400s, implying upside from the mid-$300s share price:
- MarketBeat lists an average target near $402 (with a high target $470 and low $320). [18]
- TipRanks lists an average target around $401.85 (high $450, low $320). [19]
These figures suggest many analysts still expect a rebound over the next 12 months—typically tied to some combination of easing rate pressure, housing turnover improvement, and incremental Pro momentum.
Recent rating and target changes (what moved in December)
In mid-December, Daiwa Capital Markets raised its price target on Home Depot to $360 and maintained a neutral stance, according to reports carried by MarketBeat and MarketScreener/MT Newswires distribution. [20]
Other firms also adjusted targets in the days following Home Depot’s investor update, reflecting a broader pattern: not panic, but recalibration to a slower “back half” recovery. [21]
And in November—before the Q3 report—Stifel downgraded Home Depot to Hold, pointing to a slower home improvement recovery. [22]
Macro reality check: housing is improving only gradually—and that’s pivotal for HD stock
Home Depot’s own “market recovery case” is explicitly tied to better housing activity. But macro data in December supports the view that improvement is happening—just not fast.
On December 19, 2025, Reuters reported:
- U.S. existing home sales rose 0.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million
- Median home price increased 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200
- Inventory fell to an eight-month low
- Mortgage rates eased compared with earlier in 2025 but remained around the low 6% range (Freddie Mac data cited) [23]
In plain English for Home Depot investors:
- High prices + still-elevated rates can suppress moves and big financed remodels.
- Low inventory keeps turnover constrained.
- A “flat-to-modest” housing recovery can translate into a slow grind for big-ticket categories—matching Home Depot’s cautious 2026 baseline. [24]
Notable “risk” headlines in December: cybersecurity and other watch items
Cybersecurity: exposure of internal systems (Dec. 12 headline)
One of the more attention-grabbing December stories came from TechCrunch: a security researcher said Home Depot had a leaked GitHub token exposed for an extended period, potentially granting access to internal repositories and systems until the access was revoked after media outreach. [25]
This type of headline doesn’t automatically change near-term sales—but it can:
- raise questions about governance and controls,
- increase scrutiny on tech operations, and
- create headline volatility around the stock.
Insider and institutional headlines
In the “noise but still notable” bucket:
- Market reports flagged an executive share sale tied to a December SEC filing (commonly cited as EVP & CIO Angie Brown selling 1,946 shares on Dec. 12). [26]
- MarketBeat also circulated a small institutional ownership item about a firm increasing its Home Depot stake (based on filings). [27]
These items are typically not fundamental drivers on their own, but they often show up in daily stock news feeds and can influence short-term sentiment.
Dividend profile: steady payout remains part of the HD stock appeal
Home Depot declared a quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share, payable December 18, 2025, and noted this marked its 155th consecutive quarter of a cash dividend. [28]
At a $345 share price, that dividend run-rate implies an annualized payout of about $9.20, or roughly a 2.7% yield (approximate). [29]
What to watch next for Home Depot stock: the February earnings catalyst
The next major scheduled catalyst for HD shares is the company’s next earnings release. Several market calendars currently point to late February 2026, with Zacks listing February 24, 2026 as the expected date. [30]
For HD stock, the key questions going into that report are likely to be:
- Is Pro demand accelerating enough to offset softer DIY traffic?
- Are margins stabilizing as tariffs, wages, and logistics pressures ebb and flow? [31]
- Does management’s 2026 outlook change with the latest housing and rate data? [32]
- How quickly is GMS integrating and contributing to sales growth? [33]
Bottom line: HD stock is a housing-linked blue chip, but management is signaling patience
As of December 20, 2025, Home Depot stock sits in a classic “high-quality, rate-sensitive” setup:
- The company is not forecasting a snapback in 2026—its baseline view is flat to modest comps growth. [34]
- Analysts still see meaningful upside in many published targets, but recent revisions show tempered near-term expectations. [35]
- The macro housing backdrop is improving only incrementally, which is consistent with Home Depot’s cautious tone. [36]
- Strategic investments—especially the Pro push via SRS/GMS and workflow tools like Blueprint Takeoffs—remain central to the longer-term growth narrative. [37]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. ir.homedepot.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. corporate.homedepot.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. www.digitalcommerce360.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. techcrunch.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. ir.homedepot.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.zacks.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. ir.homedepot.com, 33. ir.homedepot.com, 34. ir.homedepot.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. ir.homedepot.com
