Home Depot, Inc. (The) stock closed Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 at $359.65, finishing a volatile week with a late rebound after investors digested the retailer’s Investor and Analyst Conference outlook, fresh corporate headlines, and a shifting macro backdrop tied to interest rates and housing. [1]
Below is a detailed recap of what moved Home Depot (NYSE: HD) this week, what Wall Street is focused on now, and the key events that could shape the week ahead.
Home Depot stock price action this week
HD shares spent the week moving in two phases: an early dip following cautious forward guidance, then a steadier climb into Friday’s close.
- Monday (Dec. 8): $349.91
- Tuesday (Dec. 9): $345.27
- Wednesday (Dec. 10): $351.13
- Thursday (Dec. 11): $357.46
- Friday (Dec. 12): $359.65 [2]
From Monday’s close to Friday’s close, Home Depot stock gained about 2.8%, a notable recovery after Tuesday’s pullback.
The big driver wasn’t a single earnings report—Home Depot’s next major financial catalyst is still ahead—but rather how investors interpreted management’s message: the company believes it can keep gaining share, yet it’s not counting on a rapid re-acceleration in the broader home-improvement market in the near term.
The biggest catalyst: Home Depot’s Investor Day and its fiscal 2026 outlook
The most market-moving development in recent days was Home Depot’s strategic update and preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, delivered around its Dec. 9 Investor and Analyst Conference. [3]
What Home Depot guided for in fiscal 2026
In its preliminary view of fiscal 2026, Home Depot indicated it expects:
- Home improvement market:-1% to +1%
- Comparable sales (comps):flat to +2%
- Total sales growth:~2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin:~12.4% to 12.6%
- Adjusted operating margin:~12.8% to 13.0%
- Diluted EPS growth:flat to +4%
- Adjusted diluted EPS growth:flat to +4% [4]
In other words: modest top-line growth, modest comp growth, and modest earnings growth—not a collapse, but not the kind of snapback that would typically ignite a sustained rerating in a cyclical retail name.
Home Depot’s “Market Recovery Case”
Management also laid out a more optimistic scenario tied to a stronger housing/home-improvement recovery. In that “Market Recovery Case,” Home Depot said it could see:
- Home improvement market growth:~3% to 4%
- Comparable sales growth:~4% to 5%
- Total sales growth:~5% to 6%
- Adjusted EPS growth:mid- to high-single digits [5]
Investors often treat scenarios like this as a framework for what could happen if mortgage rates fall further and housing turnover improves—two factors that tend to unlock bigger-ticket projects and pro demand.
Fiscal 2025 guidance reaffirmed
Home Depot also reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook (including expectations for sales growth, slightly positive comps, and EPS decline), positioning 2026 as a year where the company wants to keep outperforming its market even if the market itself stays sluggish. [6]
Why the outlook mattered: it came in below what analysts expected
A key reason the market reacted sharply earlier in the week is that the fiscal 2026 guideposts trailed consensus expectations tracked by LSEG, according to Reuters.
Reuters reported that Home Depot’s preliminary outlook for:
- Comps (0% to 2%) was below analysts’ average expectation of ~2.34%
- Adjusted EPS (flat to +4%) was below the expectation of ~5.6% EPS growth [7]
That gap between “steady but cautious” guidance and “faster rebound” expectations often explains why a stock can sell off even when management is still talking about share gains and long-term opportunity.
Strategic roadmap: “Win the Pro,” build the connected experience, keep investing in the base
Beyond near-term numbers, Home Depot’s investor-day messaging reinforced a familiar long-term strategy: drive the core retail business, build an interconnected physical-and-digital experience, and expand its share with professional customers (“Pros”).
In the conference transcript, CEO Ted Decker described:
- A total addressable market (TAM) estimate of about $1.1 trillion (with ~$500B consumer and ~$600B Pro opportunity), and Home Depot market share “only around 15%,” implying room for continued share gains. [8]
- A large e-commerce footprint generating over $25 billion in sales. [9]
- A continued commitment to physical expansion, with a plan to open roughly 15 to 20 new stores per year “for the foreseeable future,” according to the transcript. [10]
This matters for HD stock because it frames Home Depot less as a pure housing-cycle lever and more as a scale operator trying to compound share and productivity through better fulfillment, digital tools, and deeper Pro capabilities—even in a flat market.
Other current Home Depot news: Creator Portal launch
Another company headline in recent days was Home Depot’s launch of a new creator-focused platform.
On Dec. 10, Home Depot announced a Home Depot Creator Portal, describing it as a “creator-first” platform designed to connect digital creators with the brand and help creators monetize home improvement content and partnerships. [11]
Marketing industry coverage has characterized the portal as a hub for campaign opportunities and affiliate-style monetization, with Home Depot expanding into the creator marketplace to drive engagement and product discovery. [12]
For HD stock watchers, this is unlikely to move near-term earnings on its own. But it fits a broader retail trend: large chains are increasingly trying to influence consumer purchase decisions earlier in the journey—through inspiration, planning content, and digital ecosystems—rather than competing only at the point of sale.
Another headline investors noticed: report of exposed internal systems access
One more development drawing attention into Friday: a cybersecurity-related report.
A CSO Online brief (citing TechCrunch reporting) said an exposed private credential (a GitHub access token) allegedly granted a security researcher significant access to private repositories and other systems, before the issue was fixed. [13]
While this is not the same as a confirmed customer data breach, cybersecurity headlines can affect investor sentiment for retailers because they raise questions about operational resilience, potential remediation costs, and reputational risk—especially for businesses that increasingly rely on integrated digital fulfillment and order-management systems.
Macro backdrop: the Fed cut rates this week—helpful, but not a quick fix for housing
Home Depot’s outlook is tightly linked to interest rates, mortgage rates, and housing turnover. That’s why investors paid close attention to the Federal Reserve this week.
On Dec. 10, 2025, the Fed said it lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, while noting inflation remained “somewhat elevated” and uncertainty stayed high. [14]
Lower policy rates can, over time, ease financing conditions and support housing activity. But Home Depot’s investor-day tone suggests management isn’t ready to call a near-term inflection point—especially for bigger discretionary projects that often depend on home sales, refinancing, or major remodeling budgets.
Week ahead: what could move Home Depot stock next
With the investor-day guidance now in the market, the next week’s action in HD stock may hinge less on company-specific events and more on macro data tied to housing and consumer demand—plus any follow-through from analysts updating models.
Here are two data points in the coming week that home-improvement investors often watch closely:
1) Homebuilder sentiment: NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec. 15)
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is scheduled for release on Dec. 15, 2025. [15]
Even though Home Depot is not a homebuilder, builder sentiment can influence expectations for new construction, renovation pipelines, and overall housing-related spending.
2) U.S. Retail Sales timing: next release (Dec. 16)
The U.S. Census Bureau has indicated that the October 2025 “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services” release (and the September 2025 “Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services” release) was rescheduled for Dec. 16, 2025. [16]
Retail-sales data doesn’t isolate Home Depot specifically, but it can shift sentiment around consumer discretionary spending, big-ticket demand, and the broader retail tape—especially if markets are already on edge about the pace of a consumer slowdown.
The setup for HD stock: what bulls and bears are arguing now
Home Depot stock is increasingly trading on a straightforward debate:
The bullish case
- Home Depot continues to emphasize share gains, especially with Pros, supported by scale, logistics, and acquisitions that broaden trade capabilities. [17]
- If housing activity improves, management has outlined an upside framework where comps and earnings growth accelerate beyond the baseline outlook. [18]
- The company’s combination of store footprint and digital sales engine remains a competitive moat.
The cautious case
- Management’s baseline fiscal 2026 view implies the home improvement market stays close to flat, with only modest comp growth and modest earnings growth. [19]
- Reuters’ summary of consensus expectations suggests investors had been positioned for faster improvement than the company is willing to underwrite right now. [20]
- Housing affordability and turnover remain key swing factors—and they don’t always respond quickly to Fed policy moves.
Bottom line: Home Depot stock ends the week stronger, but the “when does housing turn?” question remains
Home Depot (HD) finished the week at $359.65, recovering from an early-week dip as investors looked past the initial reaction to investor-day guidance and refocused on longer-term strategy and macro direction. [21]
For the week ahead, the most important swing factors look macro: housing sentiment, retail spending data, and interest-rate expectations. Meanwhile, company-specific headlines—like the creator portal initiative and the cybersecurity report—add narrative risk, but the stock’s larger trend will likely remain tied to whether the housing-related spending cycle firms up in 2026.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. corporate.homedepot.com, 4. corporate.homedepot.com, 5. corporate.homedepot.com, 6. corporate.homedepot.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. www.marketingdive.com, 13. www.csoonline.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.nahb.org, 16. www.census.gov, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. corporate.homedepot.com, 19. corporate.homedepot.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. stockanalysis.com
