New York time check: It’s 12:45 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, which means U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend.
Home Depot shares (NYSE: HD) were last indicated around $349.78, after trading $346.57–$350.05 in the most recent session, with a 52-week range of $326.31–$426.75 and a market cap around $346B (figures reflect the latest available quote stream). [1]
Because it’s Saturday, the next regular trading session is Monday at the NYSE’s standard hours (9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET). [2]
The market backdrop: thin year-end trading meets a housing-sensitive stock
Home Depot is walking into the final stretch of 2025 with Wall Street near record territory, but with post-holiday volume lighter than usual—the kind of tape where a single headline can shove a “steady” stock around more than it deserves. Reuters described the December 26 session as quiet, with major indexes only marginally lower and trading light, amid the year-end “Santa Claus rally” window. [3]
That market mood matters for HD because Home Depot isn’t just a retailer—it’s a real-time sentiment gauge for housing turnover, big-ticket remodeling, and the cost of borrowing.
The big catalyst: Home Depot reset expectations with its early 2026 outlook
Home Depot’s most market-moving recent update wasn’t a product launch or a holiday sales nugget—it was guidance.
At its investor/analyst update in December, the company laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook that effectively says: we’re planning for “meh,” but we’re built for “aha” if housing wakes up.
Home Depot’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook (key points)
Home Depot said it expects, for fiscal 2026:
- The home improvement market to land roughly between -1% and +1%
- Comparable sales approximately flat to +2%
- Total sales growth approximately +2.5% to +4.5%
- Operating margin about 12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted 12.8% to 13.0%)
- Diluted EPS growth approximately flat to +4% (adjusted also flat to +4%) [4]
That’s not the kind of outlook that makes momentum traders do backflips. Reuters reported the forecast came in below analyst expectations for comps and profit growth, and that the stock slipped in premarket on the day of the update—classic “guidance hangover.” [5]
The “Market Recovery Case”: a built-in upside scenario tied to housing
Home Depot also presented what it calls a Market Recovery Case, essentially: here’s what we think we can do when housing activity and big projects recover.
In that scenario, Home Depot modeled:
- Total sales growth roughly +5% to +6%
- Total comparable sales roughly +4% to +5%
- Operating profit growth faster than sales
- EPS growth in the mid-to-high single digits [6]
CFO Richard McPhail framed this as a housing-driven rebound case—pent-up demand that eventually stops being “pent-up” and starts being “purchased.” [7]
What the last earnings report said: stable demand, but housing pressure (and fewer storms)
Home Depot’s Q3 fiscal 2025 results help explain why management is forecasting cautiously.
The company reported:
- Sales of $41.4B (+2.8% year over year)
- Comparable sales +0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
- Net earnings $3.6B / $3.62 per diluted share
- Adjusted EPS $3.74 (slightly lower than the prior-year period) [8]
A notable detail: total sales included about $900M from GMS for roughly eight weeks (because the acquisition closed during the quarter). [9]
CEO Ted Decker attributed the quarter’s miss versus internal expectations to a mix of category-specific weakness (storm-related demand didn’t show up the way it sometimes does) and the bigger theme: consumer uncertainty and housing pressure weighing on home improvement. [10]
Strategy shift that investors are watching: Pro customers, SRS, and the GMS acquisition
Home Depot has been leaning harder into “Pro” (contractors, remodelers, maintenance pros)—customers who buy more consistently than DIY shoppers when the housing cycle gets weird.
A key piece of that strategy is its building-products distribution platform via SRS Distribution, plus the acquisition of GMS Inc. (drywall, ceilings, steel framing, and related products).
- Home Depot completed the GMS acquisition on September 4, 2025, positioning it as a Pro-focused expansion. [11]
- The deal was valued at roughly $5.5B including debt (about $4.3B equity value), according to AP’s reporting at the time of the announcement. [12]
From a stock narrative standpoint, the logic is straightforward: if big DIY remodels are rate-sensitive and cyclical, Pro demand plus distribution can smooth the ride—and potentially take share even in a slow market.
Management’s own fiscal 2025 guidance explicitly bakes in GMS as a growth driver, projecting about $2B in incremental sales from the acquisition. [13]
The housing-rate reality check: mortgage rates are easing… but the “lock-in effect” persists
The most important “external chart” for Home Depot isn’t HD’s stock chart—it’s the 30-year mortgage rate and home turnover.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.18% as of Dec. 24, 2025, down slightly from the prior week (6.21%). [14]
Rates drifting down should, in theory, help housing activity. In practice, the U.S. is still dealing with the lock-in effect: millions of homeowners sitting on ultra-low mortgages from 2020–2021 and refusing to trade them for something above 6%. The Wall Street Journal recently noted that a large share of homeowners are locked into rates at or below 4%, keeping turnover sluggish even as rates improve. [15]
That matters for HD because low turnover tends to mean fewer “new house, new projects” spending bursts—especially for bigger, financed remodels.
What Wall Street thinks now: targets still point higher, but expectations have cooled
Analyst views on Home Depot remain broadly constructive, but the vibe has shifted from “easy growth machine” to “high-quality compounder… once housing unfreezes.”
MarketWatch’s compiled analyst snapshot shows:
- Average recommendation: Overweight
- Average target price: ~$401
- Number of analyst ratings: 37 [16]
That spread between the current price area (~$350) and a ~$401 average target is why HD still shows up on “core holdings” lists. But the December guidance reset explains why the stock can feel like it’s waiting for a macro green light.
Reuters captured the same tension: Home Depot’s 2026 outlook came in below consensus on key metrics, with management citing softer demand for DIY and large-ticket categories and linking upside to housing recovery. [17]
Dividends and capital return: steady payout, buybacks still a watch item
For income-focused investors, Home Depot’s dividend has remained a meaningful part of the thesis.
Home Depot’s IR dividend history shows the company declared a $2.30 quarterly dividend (declared Nov. 20, 2025, paid Dec. 18, 2025). [18]
On buybacks, credit analysts have noted Home Depot’s repurchase pace has been constrained relative to prior periods—S&P Global Ratings said it forecast share repurchases would remain paused until the end of fiscal 2025 (in the context of leverage and capital allocation). [19]
If you’re looking ahead to Monday: what investors should know before the next session
With the exchange closed right now, here’s the practical investor checklist heading into the next open:
1) Weekend headline risk is real (and amplified by thin year-end liquidity).
This is the “Santa Claus rally” stretch, but it’s also the “one random headline can move the tape” stretch. Reuters highlighted the thin post-holiday environment in the latest session. [20]
2) The most important HD variable remains housing turnover, not holiday foot traffic.
Mortgage rates have eased to the low-6% zone, but the lock-in effect and affordability pressures keep turnover muted—directly relevant to big-project demand. [21]
3) Guidance is the new “earnings.”
Home Depot has already put numbers on the table for fiscal 2026—flat-to-low growth unless housing improves. Any new macro datapoint that shifts the market’s housing expectations can reprice HD quickly because expectations have been reset. [22]
4) Know the next major catalyst date.
Earnings calendars currently point to February 24, 2026 for Home Depot’s next quarterly report (timing can change, so treat this as “expected” unless confirmed by the company). [23]
5) Don’t forget the holiday schedule is still in play.
NYSE holiday/early-close calendars matter around year-end (for example, Christmas week had an early close on Dec. 24 and a full close on Dec. 25). Lower liquidity can exaggerate moves. [24]
Bottom line: Home Depot is priced like a housing-cycle debate
Home Depot stock is currently trading in the uncomfortable zone between two stories:
- Story A (base case): housing stays sluggish, comps grind, margins stay under pressure, and the stock behaves like a high-quality but rate-sensitive retailer. [25]
- Story B (recovery case): housing activity inflects, big projects return, and Home Depot’s scale + Pro distribution investments translate into faster sales and EPS growth. [26]
The company has essentially told investors: “We can execute either way—but we’re not pretending the macro is fixed yet.” [27]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. corporate.homedepot.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. corporate.homedepot.com, 7. corporate.homedepot.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. www.freddiemac.com, 15. www.wsj.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. ir.homedepot.com, 19. www.spglobal.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.freddiemac.com, 22. corporate.homedepot.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. corporate.homedepot.com, 26. corporate.homedepot.com, 27. corporate.homedepot.com
