Home Depot, Inc. (The) stock (NYSE: HD) is back in focus on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as investors weigh a fresh analyst price-target move, the company’s newly set preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, and a cybersecurity headline that has kept risk watchers attentive.
At midday, HD was trading in the mid-$350s, after a volatile stretch that began with management’s Investor and Analyst Conference last week and continued through a wave of analyst revisions. [1]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of today’s key HD stock news, current forecasts, and the most relevant analysis shaping sentiment on Dec. 16.
Home Depot stock price today: Where HD is trading on Dec. 16, 2025
HD opened Tuesday around $356.90 and traded in a range roughly spanning $352–$359 intraday, with the share price down modestly at the time of the latest updates. [2]
For context, HD’s 52-week range has been wide—about $326 to $427—which matters because analyst targets and “recovery timing” debates tend to intensify when the stock sits closer to the lower end of that band. [3]
The headline analyst move on Dec. 16: Daiwa lifts price target to $360, stays Neutral
One of the most-direct stock catalysts today is an updated sell-side call:
- Daiwa Capital Markets raised its price target on Home Depot to $360 (from $348) and maintained a “Neutral” rating, implying limited upside versus where the stock has recently traded. [4]
Why this matters: a “Neutral” rating with a target close to the current share price is typically interpreted as “valuation is roughly fair,” and it can cap near-term enthusiasm unless the macro backdrop (rates and housing turnover) improves faster than expected.
Home Depot stock forecast: What Wall Street targets are signaling now
Across major market-data providers, the direction of travel is consistent even when the exact numbers differ:
- One widely cited consensus snapshot shows a Moderate Buy stance with a mean price target around $401—well above the mid-$350s—reflecting the view that HD is positioned to benefit disproportionately if housing activity and bigger-ticket remodel projects rebound. [5]
- Another provider’s compilation puts the average 12-month price target near $398.5, with a high estimate around $465 and a low around $320. [6]
- A separate analyst aggregation lists a Buy consensus and a $421 12‑month target estimate. [7]
How to read the spread: the wide gap between low- and high-end targets is largely a macro bet. Bulls are effectively underwriting a more durable housing turnover recovery (and stronger “Pro” demand), while cautious forecasts assume a slower path where rate relief arrives but homeowners keep deferring large discretionary projects.
The post–Investor Day wave: RBC, Wells Fargo, and Piper Sandler frame the debate
A cluster of research notes issued after Home Depot’s Investor & Analyst conference helps explain the push-pull around HD stock:
- RBC maintained a Sector Perform view while lowering its target to $366, explicitly pointing to uncertainty around when the housing market recovery arrives and trimming its 2026 adjusted EPS estimate in the process. [8]
- Wells Fargo kept an Underweight rating, nudging its target to $395 (from $400) and highlighting “elusive” recovery timing and flattish category growth assumptions. [9]
- Piper Sandler stayed constructive with an Overweight rating, lowering its target slightly to $441 while emphasizing HD’s positioning in Pro, delivery, merchandising execution, and AI-related initiatives that could support share gains when the cycle turns. [10]
Bottom line on forecasts: even the more bullish notes are generally not arguing that demand has already snapped back. They’re arguing that Home Depot is built to take share and expand earnings power once housing activity and larger projects normalize.
Home Depot’s own forecast: 2025 reaffirmed, preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook set
The single most important forecast input for HD stock right now is management guidance from the company’s Dec. 9 strategic update.
Fiscal 2025 guidance (reaffirmed)
Home Depot reaffirmed expectations including:
- Total sales growth ~3%
- Comparable sales slightly positive for the comparable 52-week period
- Diluted EPS expected to decline ~6% from fiscal 2024
- Adjusted diluted EPS expected to decline ~5% from fiscal 2024 [11]
Preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook (new)
For fiscal 2026, Home Depot outlined:
- A home improvement market in a range of -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales approximately flat to +2%
- Total sales approximately +2.5% to +4.5%
- Diluted EPS (and adjusted diluted EPS) expected to increase ~flat to +4% [12]
The “Market Recovery Case”
Home Depot also provided a “recovery” scenario with:
- Total sales growth around 5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth around 4% to 5%
- EPS growth in the mid‑to‑high single digits [13]
Why investors care: this framework effectively lays out the company’s view of what “normalization” looks like and anchors the range of plausible earnings outcomes. Analysts and portfolio managers then map those outcomes to valuation multiples.
How Home Depot’s 2026 outlook compares with analyst expectations
Coverage following the Investor Day messaging highlighted that Home Depot’s preliminary 2026 outlook set a relatively conservative bar versus some Street models—especially on EPS growth. [14]
That conservatism can cut both ways:
- It can weigh on the stock near term if investors were positioned for faster acceleration.
- It can also reduce the risk of “miss-and-cut” cycles if the housing market remains sluggish longer than hoped.
Cybersecurity headline risk: leaked credential reportedly exposed internal systems
Beyond forecasts and price targets, HD stock has had an additional narrative risk in circulation: a report that a leaked GitHub access token—apparently posted by an employee—could have provided access to internal systems for an extended period.
Key points reported by TechCrunch and echoed by cybersecurity trade press:
- A researcher said a private access token was exposed online and could access hundreds of private repositories, with the ability to modify contents, and potentially reach infrastructure tied to order fulfillment and inventory management. [15]
- The exposure was reportedly fixed after media outreach, with the token no longer online and access revoked. [16]
Investor takeaway: even without evidence of customer harm in the reporting cited above, cybersecurity issues matter for a retailer at Home Depot’s scale because they can translate into elevated spending, operational scrutiny, and brand/reputation questions—especially when investors are already focused on operational efficiency and margin resilience.
Insider and institutional activity: what filings and alerts are saying on Dec. 16
Insider activity (Form 4-related)
Recent reporting tied to filings indicates:
- Home Depot EVP & CIO Angie Brown reported option exercises and a share sale dated Dec. 12, 2025, according to a filing summary. [17]
- Multiple roundups also referenced a sale of 1,946 shares at about $357.63 per share (roughly $696K), tied to the same executive. [18]
It’s important not to over-interpret insider sales in isolation—executives sell for many reasons (taxes, diversification, scheduled plans)—but in a “macro-sensitive” stock like HD, investors often track filings for timing signals.
Institutional positioning (13F-based updates hitting wires today)
Several Dec. 16 automated filing updates highlighted changes among smaller or mid-sized holders, including:
- A report that Rydar Equities initiated a new position valued around $2.12 million (as of the referenced filing period). [19]
- Another update that Texas Permanent School Fund Corp reduced its stake by about 31% (as of the referenced filing period). [20]
These are backward-looking regulatory snapshots rather than real-time trading signals—but they do reinforce that HD remains widely held across institutional portfolios.
Dividend watch: payout date is close
Income-focused investors have another near-term marker: Home Depot’s quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share (annualized $9.20) has a pay date of Dec. 18, 2025, following an ex-dividend date of Dec. 4, 2025. [21]
Other current corporate developments investors are tracking
While not a direct “stock-mover” on its own, Home Depot has also been investing in demand generation and digital reach:
- The company announced the launch of The Home Depot Creator portal, intended to connect creators with Home Depot campaigns and monetization tools (commissionable links, tracking, and program resources). [22]
- Marketing industry coverage frames this as part of a broader push by major retailers to participate in the creator economy and affiliate-driven commerce. [23]
For HD stock investors, this initiative is best viewed as a supporting lever: it may help capture DIY interest earlier in the project-planning funnel, but it’s unlikely to override the bigger drivers (rates, housing turnover, and Pro spending).
What to watch next for Home Depot stock
Here are the main items that typically matter most for HD shares from here:
- Interest rates and housing turnover signals
Home Depot’s own “market recovery case” is explicitly tied to an inflection in housing activity and larger project spend. [24] - Updates to 2026 earnings expectations
The Street is still recalibrating around management’s preliminary 2026 range, and additional analyst revisions can shift the consensus narrative quickly. [25] - Next earnings date
Multiple market calendars list the next earnings report around Feb. 24, 2026. [26] - Operational risk headlines (cybersecurity, supply chain, shrink)
As recent reporting shows, unexpected risk stories can appear even when the macro story dominates. [27]
Bottom line for Dec. 16, 2025
Home Depot stock is trading in the mid-$350s as investors digest a mixed set of inputs: a fresh but cautious analyst move (Daiwa’s Neutral stance), broadly higher long-term consensus targets that assume an eventual housing-driven recovery, and a headline risk around cybersecurity controls that has kept some investors defensive.
The stock’s next clear directional catalyst is likely to come from either (a) macro data that changes the “recovery timing” debate, or (b) company commentary that tightens the wide range around fiscal 2026 outcomes.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. techcrunch.com, 16. techcrunch.com, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. www.marketingdive.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. techcrunch.com
