Home Depot Stock (NYSE: HD) Week Ahead: 2026 Outlook, Analyst Targets, Technical Levels, and Key Catalysts for Dec. 22

Home Depot, Inc. (The) enters the Christmas-shortened trading week with Wall Street still digesting the company’s cautious preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook—and with investors watching whether housing data and interest-rate expectations can finally provide the “inflection” the home-improvement sector has been waiting for.

HD shares last traded around $345 after Friday’s session (Dec. 19), and the stock has been volatile in December as the market recalibrates around slower recovery assumptions for big-ticket home projects. ^[1]

Below is a week-ahead, Google News/Discover–ready briefing on the latest Home Depot news, forecasts, and market analysis as of Dec. 21, 2025, plus the catalysts that could move the stock into year-end.

Where Home Depot stock stands heading into the week

HD closed Dec. 19 at $345.00, down 2.81% on the day, capping a choppy multi-week stretch in which the stock has swung between the mid-$330s and mid-$360s. ^[2]

Zooming out:

Over the past year, HD is down about 12%, and Investing.com lists a 52-week range of ~$326 to ~$427. ^[3]
From a trader’s perspective, the stock is entering a week where liquidity can thin quickly (holiday conditions), sometimes amplifying moves that start with macro headlines or sector rotations rather than company-specific news.

The big fundamental driver right now: Home Depot’s 2026 outlook (and why it mattered)

The most market-moving HD catalyst in mid-December was Home Depot’s Dec. 9 strategic update, which included:

1) A cautious base-case view of the home-improvement market

Home Depot said it expects the home improvement market in fiscal 2026 to fall in a range of -1% to +1%—a notable signal that management does not see an imminent demand snapback. ^[4]

2) Preliminary fiscal 2026 guidance (base case)

Home Depot’s preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook includes:

Comparable sales: ~flat to +2%
Total sales growth: ~+2.5% to +4.5%
Operating margin: ~12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted ~12.8% to 13.0%)
Diluted EPS growth: ~flat to +4% (adjusted also flat to +4%) ^[5]

3) A “Market Recovery Case” (the upside scenario)

Home Depot also laid out a “Market Recovery Case” with:

Total sales growth: ~+5% to +6%
Comparable sales: ~+4% to +5%
EPS growth:mid-to-high single digits
And an expectation that operating profit growth can run faster than sales if housing momentum returns. ^[6]

4) Strategy framing: share gains + pro focus

Management emphasized three strategic priorities—drive core and culture, deliver a frictionless interconnected experience, and win the pro—and positioned Home Depot as a share gainer in an estimated $1.1 trillion total addressable market. ^[7]

Why the stock reacted: Reuters reported that the 2026 outlook landed below analysts’ expectations for comps, sales, and earnings growth, reinforcing the narrative that housing and big-ticket demand are taking longer to recover than bulls hoped. ^[8]

The “carryover” fundamentals investors are still anchoring to: FY2025 guidance and Q3 results

Even though the market’s attention has shifted to fiscal 2026, Home Depot also reaffirmed and/or detailed key fiscal 2025 items that continue to shape valuation debates:

Fiscal 2025 guidance (reaffirmed)

Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance including:

Total sales growth: ~3%
Comparable sales: “slightly positive” for the comparable 52-week period
EPS: down ~6% vs. FY2024 (adjusted EPS down ~5%)
Capex: ~2.5% of sales
And the inclusion of GMS, expected to contribute about $2.0B in incremental sales. ^[9]

Q3 FY2025: modest growth, but mixed demand signals

In its Q3 FY2025 release, Home Depot posted:

Sales:$41.4B, up 2.8% year over year
Comparable sales:+0.2% (U.S. comps +0.1%)
Adjusted EPS:$3.74 (vs. $3.78 year prior) ^[10]

Management also pointed directly to consumer uncertainty and housing pressure as factors disproportionately impacting home-improvement demand. ^[11]

Other current HD headlines investors may be pricing in

Not all headlines move the stock equally—but in a holiday week, even secondary stories can affect sentiment.

Cybersecurity headline: exposed GitHub access token

TechCrunch reported that a security researcher found an exposed Home Depot GitHub token that allegedly provided access to internal systems and repositories, and that the issue was fixed after TechCrunch contacted the company. ^[12]

Week-ahead relevance: cybersecurity stories can influence risk perception (and occasionally legal/PR overhang), even without evidence of a customer-data breach in the public reporting.

Brand/reputation risk in the news cycle

The Financial Times reported that Home Depot locations have become focal points tied to U.S. immigration enforcement activity, protests, and online boycott calls—an unusual headline risk for a home-improvement retailer. ^[13]

Product/Pro ecosystem investments (longer-term, but supportive)

Home Depot has continued to invest in tools aimed at professionals:

An AI-powered “Blueprint Takeoffs” tool intended to speed up materials lists/estimates for single-family blueprints, targeting pro efficiency and capture of project spend. ^[14]
A Creator Portal initiative designed to connect content creators with the brand and product ecosystem—more marketing than macro, but part of customer acquisition and loyalty strategy. ^[15]

Home Depot stock forecasts: what analysts are saying right now

Analyst views remain broadly constructive on the long-term franchise, but they differ on timing.

Consensus price targets (two widely cited aggregations)

Benzinga lists a consensus price target of $423.78 based on 27 analysts, with a high of $497 and a low of $350; it also notes recent December actions including a DA Davidson target of $407 (Dec. 10) and a Stifel low target of $350 (Dec. 1). ^[16]
MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average price target around $402.07 (34 analysts), implying meaningful upside from mid-$300s prices—though that upside is contingent on demand normalization. ^[17]

How to interpret this for the week ahead: targets are typically 12-month views, so they won’t predict this week’s tape—but they can influence where dip-buying emerges (especially around widely watched support zones).

Technical analysis: key HD levels traders may watch this week

Technical dashboards are flashing bearish-to-oversold signals, which often sets up a “battle” between momentum sellers and value buyers.

TipRanks snapshot (as of Dec. 21)

TipRanks shows:

Overall technical consensus: Strong Sell
RSI (14): 41.14 (neutral/weak)
MACD: -2.65 (sell signal)
Pivot levels that place notable zones roughly around $339–$351 (support) and $359–$370+ (resistance), depending on the pivot methodology. ^[18]

Investing.com snapshot (based on Dec. 19 data timestamp)

Investing.com’s daily technical view shows:

“Strong Sell” summary
RSI(14) around 29.3 (oversold reading on that timestamp)
Pivot points clustered in the mid-$340s to upper-$340s ^[19]

Why the difference? Different platforms can use different inputs/timestamps and calculation conventions. What matters for the week ahead is the shared takeaway: trend/moving averages are bearish, while some oscillators are approaching (or already in) oversold territory.

The week-ahead catalyst map (Dec. 22–26): holiday trading + housing-linked macro

This is a holiday-shortened week:

U.S. stock markets have an early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and are closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas. ^[20]
Lower liquidity often means HD can trade more like a macro proxy for rates/housing sentiment than a company-specific story.

Economic data that can move “rates + housing” narratives

Investopedia’s week-ahead preview flags a busy (if compressed) U.S. macro calendar, including:

A delayed report on Q3 GDP (Tuesday)
Durable goods orders
Industrial production
Consumer confidence
And jobless claims (Wednesday) ^[21]

Reuters’ Morning Bid preview similarly points to GDP, confidence, factory-related data, and jobless claims as key inputs for market sentiment into the holiday. ^[22]

S&P Global’s week-ahead list also includes U.S. new home sales among the notable releases. ^[23]

Why this matters for Home Depot stock: Home Depot has explicitly tied demand softness to housing pressure and the lack of a catalyst in housing activity. In a week with heavy macro prints, HD can move with:

shifts in rate-cut/rate-hold expectations, and
housing-cycle “green shoots” (or lack thereof). ^[24]

Housing backdrop update: existing home sales improved—still a long way from “normal”

The housing market is delivering mixed signals—small improvements, but still constrained.

What just hit the tape (fresh data)

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose 0.5% in November to 4.13 million (SAAR), while inventory fell to 1.43 million units (about 4.2 months of supply) and the median price was $409,200. ^[25]

Reuters’ coverage added context: sales were modestly higher, but uncertainty and labor-market softness remain constraints, and the report highlighted ongoing affordability pressures. ^[26]

Mortgage rates: easing, but “lock-in” is real

A Wall Street Journal report noted mortgage rates near a one-year low around the low-6% range, but argued the lock-in effect still discourages many homeowners from selling. ^[27]

Meanwhile, a Reuters housing outlook piece cited expert expectations for the 30-year mortgage rate averaging ~6.18% next year and ~5.88% in 2027, down from roughly the mid-6% level at the time of the survey—suggesting gradual relief, not a sudden unlock. ^[28]

Translation for HD investors: If the housing market improves only slowly, Home Depot’s own base-case 2026 framing (flat-ish market, modest comps) is easier to defend—while the bull case depends on rates declining enough to restart turnover and bigger remodel projects.

Three scenarios for HD stock this week (not a prediction—an investor framework)

Bull case (HD bounces)

Macro data cools rate fears and supports a “soft landing” narrative.
Housing indicators surprise to the upside or mortgage-rate expectations drift lower.
Oversold technicals trigger bargain-hunting, especially if HD holds the mid-$340s support zones highlighted by pivot/price-history tools. ^[29]

Base case (range-bound, headline-driven)

Light holiday volume keeps HD choppy.
Investors continue to anchor on 2026 guidance (flat-to-low growth), making rallies harder without a macro catalyst.
Stock trades in a broad mid-$340s to mid-$350s band as buyers and sellers wait for January liquidity and the next earnings runway.

Bear case (another leg down)

Macro data revives inflation or growth fears, pushing yields higher.
Housing headlines re-confirm stagnation.
Negative sentiment from non-fundamental headlines (cybersecurity/PR) adds risk premium in thin trading. ^[30]

What to watch day-by-day (practical checklist)

Monday (Dec. 22):

Holiday liquidity conditions start; watch pre-holiday positioning and sector flows.

Tuesday (Dec. 23):

GDP / durable goods / confidence-heavy day per week-ahead previews—rates can swing, and HD often follows the direction of housing-sensitive sentiment. ^[31]

Wednesday (Dec. 24 — early close):

Jobless claims + early close dynamics; moves can be exaggerated into 1 p.m. ET. ^[32]

Thursday (Dec. 25):

Market closed. ^[33]

Friday (Dec. 26):

Post-holiday repositioning (often still thin); watch whether HD holds or breaks key support.

Bottom line for the coming week

Home Depot stock goes into the Christmas week with the debate clearly framed:

Management’s base case says the home-improvement market is basically flat (±1%) and growth is modest in 2026. ^[34]
The upside case depends on a housing recovery that reignites larger projects and drives faster-than-market growth. ^[35]
The tape this week is likely to be dominated by macro prints (GDP/consumer confidence/durable goods/jobless claims) and holiday trading conditions—rather than new company-specific events. ^[36]