New York, Jan 23, 2026, 12:40 PM EST — Regular session
Home Depot shares were up 0.6% at $383.15 in midday trading on Friday, as investors weighed a bullish note from UBS. The bank reiterated its Buy rating and $430 price target and said the retailer could see “outsized gains” when the home-improvement market recovers. Investing.com
The timing matters because the next leg for Home Depot’s demand story still runs through housing and borrowing costs. Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.09% this week, a level that can keep homeowners cautious on big remodels.
Housing signals have been choppy. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 9.3% in December and the pending home sales index dropped to 71.8, the lowest since July, a Reuters report showed. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called inventory the “lowest inventory level of 2025.” Reuters
Washington’s attempts to push rates lower have not convinced everyone. A Reuters analysis on Thursday said the administration’s plan to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed bonds — securities backed by pools of home loans — has shown little evidence of easing housing costs so far. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, called it “mostly an exercise in burning cash.” Reuters
Home Depot itself has tied the cycle back to turnover and confidence. At a December investor event, CFO Richard McPhail said the company had “not yet seen a catalyst or an inflection in housing activity.” It projected fiscal 2026 same-store sales — sales at stores open at least a year — to range from flat to up 2%. Reuters
Rival Lowe’s shares were up 0.1% at $275.21. The pair has tended to trade with shifts in the housing and rates narrative, sometimes more than with day-to-day retail headlines.
Mortgage demand has shown flashes of life. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 14.1% in the week ended Jan. 16 and refinancing climbed 20%. MBA’s deputy chief economist Joel Kan said refi activity reached the “strongest level of activity since September 2025.” MBA
But the downside case is still easy to sketch. About 69% of U.S. homes with an outstanding mortgage have a fixed rate of 5% or lower, Realtor.com data cited by the Associated Press shows, which can keep owners “locked in” if new loans stay expensive. AP News
The next housing readout is close. The National Association of Realtors is due to publish existing-home sales for January on Feb. 12 at 10 a.m. Eastern, a release that can shift sentiment on rate-sensitive consumer names.
For Home Depot, the next hard catalyst is its own quarterly print. The company’s investor relations calendar lists its Q4 2025 earnings release for Feb. 24 at 9 a.m. ET, when investors will look for updated guidance and management’s take on the spring selling season.
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