The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is back in focus on December 10, 2025, as Wall Street digests a conservative 2026 forecast, a clear warning about the housing market, and a fresh push into creator-led marketing.
Around midday on Wednesday, Home Depot stock is trading near $346 per share, up slightly on the session but still roughly 9% lower year to date and about 19% below its 52‑week high of $428. [1] With a market cap of about $345 billion, a trailing P/E of ~23.6, and a 2.66% dividend yield, HD remains a premium-priced blue chip under real macro pressure. [2]
At the same time, the company is reaffirming 2025 guidance, laying out a cautious base case for 2026, and dangling a more optimistic “market recovery case” that depends on a turn in U.S. housing. [3]
Below is a detailed look at today’s key news, forecasts, and fresh analysis on Home Depot stock.
HD Stock on December 10, 2025: Price and Valuation Snapshot
According to real‑time data from StockAnalysis, Home Depot shares trade around: [4]
- Price: $346.19 (+0.27% intraday at 12:39 p.m. ET)
- Day’s range: $344.00 – $348.95
- Previous close: $345.27
- 52‑week range: $326.31 – $428.00
- Market cap: $344.6 billion
- P/E (ttm): 23.62
- Forward P/E: 23.18
- Dividend: $9.20 annualized (2.66% yield)
A Wells Fargo note out today highlights that the stock is down about 9% year to date and nearly 19% below its 52‑week high, underperforming a broader S&P 500 that’s up double digits. [5]
This is classic “quality at a price”: investors are still paying a modest premium multiple for a mature retailer whose near‑term earnings are shrinking, in exchange for the expectation that Home Depot will benefit disproportionately when housing and remodeling cycles recover.
Investor Day Recap: 2025 Guidance and a Cautious 2026 Base Case
At its 2025 Investor and Analyst Conference on December 9, Home Depot updated Wall Street on both its current year and its early view of 2026. [6]
Fiscal 2025 guidance (52‑week year vs. 53 weeks in 2024)
From the company’s official release: [7]
- Total sales growth: ~3%
- Includes about $2.0 billion of incremental sales from the GMS acquisition
- Comparable sales:slightly positive for the comparable 52‑week period
- New stores: ~12
- Gross margin: ~33.2%
- Operating margin: ~12.6% (about 13.0% on an adjusted basis)
- EPS:~6% decline vs. fiscal 2024 ($14.91), or ~5% decline on an adjusted basis
- Capex: ~2.5% of total sales
In other words, 2025 is a low‑growth, earnings‑down year in which acquisitions and modest comps offset a sluggish housing backdrop and softer big‑ticket spending.
Fiscal 2026 preliminary outlook: “steady but uninspiring”
Home Depot’s base‑case 2026 guidance, assuming the home improvement market is roughly flat (–1% to +1%), calls for: [8]
- Total sales growth:2.5% – 4.5%
- Comparable sales:0% – 2%
- Operating margin:12.4% – 12.6% (12.8–13.0% adjusted)
- EPS growth: roughly 0% – 4%
Reuters notes that this fell short of analyst expectations for both sales growth and profit, helping to drive Tuesday’s sell‑off. [9] Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal framed the message bluntly: a home‑improvement recovery “is still far off” unless housing activity meaningfully improves. [10]
The “Market Recovery Case”: upside if housing cooperates
Alongside that conservative base case, Home Depot presented a more optimistic “market recovery case” scenario: [11]
- Total sales growth:5% – 6%
- Comparable sales growth:4% – 5%
- EPS growth:mid‑ to high‑single digits, with profit growing faster than sales
CFO Richard McPhail described this recovery case as what management expects once there is clear momentum in housing activity and a rebound in larger renovation projects, driven by pent‑up demand. [12]
In short, 2026 is being framed as “transition year”: muted growth if housing stays stuck, with more attractive upside only if transaction volumes and project spending thaw.
Housing Market Headwinds: A Clear Warning for 2026
Media coverage today is unusually aligned on one point: Home Depot has just issued a fairly stark warning about housing‑linked demand.
A detailed summary from The Motley Fool (syndicated via Nasdaq) notes that management: [13]
- Reiterated slightly positive comps and ~3% sales growth for 2025
- Guided to only modest EPS growth in 2026
- Explicitly tied stronger results to a housing market recovery, not just internal initiatives
The article also highlights external housing data from Redfin showing only a gradual, multi‑year reset ahead, with home sales expected to rise just 3% in 2026 as high prices and still‑elevated mortgage rates keep many buyers sidelined. [14]
TipRanks’ coverage of the investor day adds more color from McPhail: Home Depot believes pressures in housing and home improvement will likely persist into 2026, citing weak existing‑home sales, elevated delistings, and cancellation rates above pre‑pandemic norms. [15]
The Street went even further, framing the message as “Home Depot issues warning on housing market, economy”, underscoring how clearly management linked its slower growth outlook to macro conditions beyond its control. [16]
The takeaway for HD shareholders: management is not promising a near‑term snapback. Instead, it is signaling a prolonged soft patch in home‑improvement demand unless and until the housing market improves.
Key News and Analysis Published on December 10, 2025
A wave of new reports and opinion pieces hit today. Here’s how they line up thematically.
1. Analyst target cuts – but mostly still “Buy”
Several firms trimmed price targets this morning while maintaining largely constructive ratings:
- Wells Fargo: Target cut from $400 to $395, Underweight rating maintained. The firm cites “elusive recovery timing,” lower 2026 estimates and flattish category growth, even as it acknowledges Home Depot’s strong business model and “idiosyncratic levers” like digital initiatives and Pro‑focused services. [17]
- UBS: Target cut from $445 to $430 but Buy rating maintained. UBS argues that post‑guidance earnings estimates now look achievable and calls HD’s risk‑reward “compelling,” expecting “outsized earnings gains” when housing recovers. [18]
- Telsey Advisory Group: Maintains “Outperform” while trimming its target from $430 to $410, reflecting a slightly more cautious stance but still positive long‑term view. [19]
- RBC Capital: Keeps a Hold/Sector Perform rating while cutting its target from $376 to $366, emphasizing a more balanced risk‑reward profile. [20]
- Piper Sandler: Maintains Overweight/Buy, nudging its target down from $450 to $441, pointing to Home Depot’s strengths in Pro sales and technology as reasons to stay constructive long term. [21]
Across data providers, the analyst consensus remains “Buy”:
- StockAnalysis reports 24 analysts with an average 12‑month target of $422.50, implying about 22% upside from today’s price. [22]
- TipRanks lists a “Moderate Buy” with a majority of Buy ratings, a handful of Holds, and just one Sell, and an average target in the low $400s. [23]
However, Zacks currently assigns HD a Rank #4 (Sell), warning that near‑term performance may lag the market despite generally positive broker sentiment. [24]
2. Dividend and income angle
A widely shared article titled “The 2 Best Dividend Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever” highlights Home Depot alongside Coca‑Cola as a core long‑term income holding. [25] Key points:
- Home Depot generated about $10.4 billion in free cash flow, versus $6.9 billion in dividend payments, leaving a comfortable coverage cushion.
- Management explicitly prioritizes capital allocation as: invest in the business → pay dividends → repurchase stock. [26]
- The company has raised its dividend every year since 2010, and has paid a cash dividend for 155 consecutive quarters. [27]
On November 20, the board declared a $2.30 quarterly dividend (payable December 18), which annualizes to $9.20 per share – matching the 2.66% yield seen in market data today. [28]
3. Cautious outlook headlines
Several outlets published frankly negative or at least guarded takes today:
- “Home Depot issues cautious outlook for fiscal 2026” – Retail Insight Network summarizes the base‑case guidance of flat to low‑single‑digit comp growth and stresses that management is bracing for continued consumer caution. [29]
- “Home Depot issues warning on housing market, economy” – The Street underscores the company’s clear message that 2026 growth depends heavily on external housing conditions. [30]
- “Home Depot Sees Limited Growth Without Housing Market Rebound” – The Motley Fool reiterates the theme that earnings growth in 2026 looks modest at best without a meaningful pickup in home sales and renovation. [31]
4. More balanced takes
Other analysis tries to balance the near‑term gloom with Home Depot’s structural strengths:
- An Investing.com recap of the Wells Fargo note points out that many analysts still see Home Depot as a “prominent player” with unique levers—such as AI‑driven productivity, omnichannel capabilities, and Pro credit offerings—despite the macro drag. [32]
- Insider‑focused commentary notes that Jim Cramer views Home Depot as highly sensitive to interest‑rate cuts, arguing that a friendlier Fed path could quickly improve sentiment toward the stock. [33]
Earnings Backdrop: Q3 2025 Shows Stable Sales, Lower Profit
All of this guidance sits on top of mixed third‑quarter results reported on November 18: [34]
- Net sales: $41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Includes about $900 million from the GMS acquisition (roughly eight weeks of sales)
- Comparable sales:+0.2% overall; +0.1% in the U.S.
- Net earnings:$3.6 billion, down about 1.3% vs. the prior year
- Diluted EPS:$3.62, down from $3.67; adjusted EPS about $3.74 vs. $3.78 a year ago, slightly below Wall Street estimates. [35]
Management blamed lack of storm activity in key regions (which hurt repair and recovery categories), persistent consumer uncertainty, and ongoing housing pressure for the earnings shortfall. [36]
In short, Q3 confirmed what today’s 2026 outlook reiterates: sales are grinding higher, but margins and EPS are under pressure in a sluggish macro environment.
Strategy Check: Pro Customers, Logistics and the New Creator Portal
Beyond the headline numbers, Home Depot continues to invest heavily in what it sees as its next growth engines: professional customers, modern logistics, and digital reach.
Pro‑focused M&A and distribution build‑out
A Retail TouchPoints feature published today highlights Home Depot’s emphasis on professional (“Pro”) customers and its long‑term market share ambitions: [37]
- The total addressable home‑improvement market is estimated at $1.1 trillion
- ~$500 billion from consumers
- ~$600 billion from Pros
- Home Depot’s current share is about 15% (~$110 billion), leaving substantial runway.
To deepen its reach with Pro contractors and specialty trades, Home Depot has:
- Acquired International Design Group / Construction Resources in 2023
- Acquired roofing and building‑products distributor SRS Distribution in 2024
- Completed the acquisition of specialty distributor GMS in 2025
- Opened multiple Pro‑focused distribution centers to support larger, job‑site‑oriented orders. [38]
These moves, plus the incremental GMS revenue already showing up in Q3, are central to the “market recovery case” where Pro spending rebounds and operating leverage improves.
Instacart partnership in Canada
Earlier this month, Home Depot Canada and Instacart announced a nationwide same‑day delivery partnership covering more than 175 stores, with support for heavy “big & bulky” items. [39] This extends the retailer’s omnichannel reach and gives Canadian customers more flexible fulfillment options, from in‑store to app‑based delivery.
New Creator Portal launched today
Today’s most eye‑catching brand initiative is the official launch of The Home Depot Creator portal, announced via a company press release: [40]
- The portal is a creator‑first platform designed to connect digital content creators with Home Depot and its suppliers.
- Creators can access campaign opportunities, curated product collections, training resources, branded hashtags, and performance dashboards, and earn commissions through shoppable links.
- Thousands of creators are already enrolled; applications are now open to the public.
- The program debuts with a “Starting Lineup” of influencers—including Dude Perfect, Trinity Rodman, DIY Huntress and others—and is explicitly tied to the surge in attention expected around next year’s FIFA World Cup.
CMO Molly Battin describes the portal as a community built to help talented personalities give customers confidence to tackle home‑improvement projects, while deepening engagement with the brand. [41]
For investors, this is not an immediate earnings driver, but it fits a clear strategic pattern: shift marketing toward measurable, shoppable, creator‑driven content that links inspiration directly to product purchases.
What the Forecasts Say: Revenue, EPS and Valuation
Beyond company guidance, consensus forecasts offer a numbers‑driven view of where HD might be headed.
StockAnalysis aggregates analyst estimates as follows: [42]
- Revenue this year (FY 2025): ~$169.5 billion, up 6.3% from ~$159.5 billion
- Revenue next year (FY 2026): ~$177.2 billion, up 4.5%
- EPS this year:$14.95, essentially flat vs. $14.91
- EPS next year:$15.80, up 5.7%
That EPS trajectory is somewhat more optimistic than management’s low‑single‑digit 2026 guidance, reflecting expectations that margins can recover a bit more quickly or that the macro may surprise to the upside.
On valuation, Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow model concludes that Home Depot may be modestly overvalued, estimating the stock trades at a premium of roughly the mid‑teens percent relative to its modeled fair value. [43] Other analysts argue the opposite—that the recent slide has created a reasonable entry point into a high‑quality compounder with a strong dividend and structural share‑gain story. [44]
As usual, the truth likely depends on how long the housing slump lasts and how much you’re willing to pay for durability plus a 2.6% yield.
Risks and Wild Cards for HD Stock
Several factors stand out for investors tracking HD after today’s news:
- Housing & rates: Management has now explicitly tethered its bullish case to a recovery in housing activity. Rates, affordability, and transaction volumes will likely drive the narrative as much as store‑level execution. [45]
- Consumer budgets & tariffs: Macro strain on household budgets and tariff‑driven cost pressures remain a headwind for big projects, as highlighted in multiple earnings recaps. [46]
- Legal and reputational noise: A shareholder‑rights firm has announced an investigation into Home Depot following the stock’s recent volatility—standard fare after guidance cuts but still worth noting. [47] No findings have been made, and such probes often go nowhere.
- Execution on Pro & digital: The payoff from acquisitions (SRS, GMS), Pro‑oriented supply chain investments, the Instacart partnership, and the new Creator portal will take time to show up in comps and margins. [48]
Bottom Line: How Today Changes the Home Depot Story
As of December 10, 2025, the Home Depot story looks like this:
- Near term: A mature retailer in a cyclical downturn, with flat‑to‑low growth and pressured earnings. Management is not trying to “talk up” 2026.
- Medium term: A still‑dominant operator with meaningful structural advantages in Pro, logistics and omnichannel, and a credible plan to accelerate once housing improves.
- Shareholder profile: A stock with a solid, growing dividend, strong free cash flow, and a valuation that assumes a housing recovery within a reasonable timeframe—but not an immediate boom.
None of today’s updates fundamentally change who Home Depot is. What they do is make the hinge point explicit:
If housing stays cold, HD is a slow‑growth dividend compounder. If housing thaws, it could quickly look under‑owned again.
References
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