Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON) has had a turbulent few weeks. A rare Bank of America double downgrade in mid‑November, a continued share price pullback, and a high‑profile board appointment in December have all reshaped the narrative around the stock heading into 2026. At around $193.9 per share as of December 11, 2025, Honeywell trades well below its 2025 highs, even as its aerospace business grows and the company pushes ahead with a multi‑year breakup plan. [1]
This article pulls together current news, forecasts and analyses from November 21, 2025 onward to help you understand where Honeywell stock stands now, what Wall Street expects, and what risks and opportunities may lie ahead. It is for information only and is not personal investment advice.
1. Where Honeywell stock stands today
- Current price: about $193.9 (intraday high $194.44, low $191.90 on December 11, 2025).
- Market cap: roughly $121–122 billion, based on recent data. [2]
- 52‑week range: approximately $169.21 to $228.04, according to recent MarketBeat data. [3]
Several recent analyses note that Honeywell shares are down roughly 15–16% in 2025, despite a strong Q3 earnings beat and raised full‑year guidance. [4]
In other words: HON is trading in the lower half of its 12‑month range, with the price still digesting the impact of November’s double downgrade and the October spin‑off of its Solstice Advanced Materials business. [5]
2. What triggered the pressure: BofA’s rare double downgrade
Although your requested time window starts on November 21, context matters: three days earlier, on November 18, 2025, Bank of America delivered a rare “double downgrade” on Honeywell, cutting the stock from Buy to Underperform and slashing its price target from $265 to $205. [6]
Key points from that call:
- BofA argued Honeywell faces a “challenging catalyst path” as it prepares to split into an aerospace company and an automation‑focused Honeywell in the second half of 2026. [7]
- Analysts highlighted slower projected earnings growth than peers: they see Honeywell at ~7% EPS growth in 2026 vs about 13% for peers and ~10% for the broader sector. [8]
- Margin performance has slipped from a clear lead to slightly below multi‑industrial peers, which BofA links to weaker profitability in aerospace, industrial automation and energy & sustainability solutions, plus portfolio churn and reinvestment. [9]
- They also noted the Solstice Advanced Materials spin‑off has not (yet) unlocked the valuation uplift investors hoped for. [10]
The downgrade knocked the stock lower on the day and set the tone for the weeks that followed.
Not everyone agreed. CNBC’s Jim Cramer publicly slammed the double downgrade as “shameful”, arguing that Wall Street is being too short‑term and underestimating Honeywell’s transition into a more software‑ and data‑driven industrial technology business. [11]
3. Fresh valuation calls since November 21: undervalued or value trap?
From November 21, 2025 onward, several research pieces have tried to answer the key question: after the sell‑off, is Honeywell undervalued?
3.1 Simply Wall St / Longbridge: fair value well above current price
On November 22, a Simply Wall St valuation note (syndicated via Longbridge) pointed out that: [12]
- HON shares were down about 15.7% year‑to‑date, with total shareholder return of roughly ‑10% over 12 months.
- Fair‑value estimates clustered between roughly $216 and $246 per share, implying a double‑digit upside from prices around the low $190s.
- The analysis highlighted Honeywell’s breakup into multiple companies as a potential value unlock, but flagged economic headwinds and execution risk.
Another Simply Wall St‑style DCF piece (November 2025, updated in early December) put intrinsic value at around $222.67 per share, about 14.6% above the then‑current price (~$190), and noted that Honeywell was trading on a P/E around 19–20x, versus a modelled “fair” P/E of roughly 27x. [13]
3.2 AInvest: DCF suggests 12%+ upside, but warns on rich P/B and P/S
An AI‑assisted analysis published December 6 on AInvest framed the 2025 drop as a potential opportunity: [14]
- It cites a 15.8% 2025 share price pullback.
- A DCF model there estimates intrinsic value at roughly $216.18 per share, about 12% above the current price at that time.
- However, it warns that Honeywell’s price‑to‑book (~7.2x) and price‑to‑sales (~3.0x) multiples are high vs typical industrial conglomerates, leaving little room for disappointment on margins.
3.3 Sahm Capital / Simply Wall St: 2028 forecasts and a ~$242 “fair value”
On November 24, a Simply Wall St piece syndicated by Sahm Capital took a longer‑term view to 2028: [15]
- It projects Honeywell revenue growing at ~4.6% annually to about $45.8 billion by 2028, with earnings rising from roughly $5.7 billion to $7.5 billion.
- On those assumptions, it derives a fair value around $241.67 per share, a roughly 27% upside to the then‑current price.
The authors still stress that the key driver remains successful execution of Honeywell’s separation into multiple entities, and that end‑market demand stability is a major risk.
Bottom line on valuations:
Across recent valuation pieces published since November 21, “fair value” estimates mostly fall in the $216–$242 range, versus a market price around $190–195. That implies 12–25% potential upside if those cash‑flow and margin assumptions prove correct – but these models are sensitive to growth and discount‑rate inputs, and they do not remove the execution and macro risks BofA flagged.
4. Wall Street’s Honeywell stock forecast for 2026
MarketBeat’s latest analyst consensus, updated through early December, shows a more cautious—but still constructive—view than the BofA call alone might suggest: [16]
- Consensus rating:“Hold”, based on 18 analysts.
- 1 Sell
- 9 Hold
- 8 Buy
- 12‑month average price target:$236.65, implying about 22% upside from a reference price of $194.02 quoted on the page.
- Target range:$195 (low) to $269 (high).
Recent rating actions recorded there include: [17]
- Bank of America (Nov 18): Buy → Underperform, PT $205 (from $265).
- BNP Paribas (Dec 3): initiated at Neutral with a $195 target.
- Barclays (Dec 4): kept an Overweight rating but trimmed its PT from $270 to $269.
- Deutsche Bank (Dec 8): maintained a Buy rating while shaving its target from $265 to $264.
- Weiss Ratings and others: have reiterated variations of Hold.
Earlier in November, before the BofA move, one MarketBeat article still described Honeywell as carrying an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target around $239.38—showing how the double downgrade has nudged sentiment down from “modest bullish” to “cautious”. [18]
5. Q3 2025 beat and raised guidance: fundamentals still solid
Underneath the stock volatility, Honeywell’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025, announced October 23) was fundamentally strong: [19]
- Sales: about $10.4 billion, up 7% year‑on‑year (6% organic), beating analyst expectations (~$10.14 billion).
- Adjusted EPS:$2.82, ahead of estimates (~$2.57) and up around 9% year‑on‑year.
- Aerospace Technologies: sales up roughly 15% to $4.51 billion, driven by robust demand in commercial aftermarket and defense/space.
- Cash generation: operating cash flow of about $3.3 billion and free cash flow around $1.45 billion, despite the spin‑off‑related drag.
Management simultaneously raised full‑year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.60–$10.70, even after factoring in roughly $0.21 per share hit from the Solstice separation. [20]
For many bullish analysts and DCF models, this combination of Aerospace outperformance, solid cash flow, and upgraded guidance underpins the view that the recent share price weakness is more about sentiment and spin‑off noise than deteriorating fundamentals.
6. Spin‑offs and structural change: Honeywell’s breakup story
Honeywell is in the middle of a major portfolio transformation:
- On October 30, 2025, it completed the spin‑off of its Advanced Materials business into Solstice Advanced Materials, following an October 16 board approval and record date announcement. [21]
- On October 22, 2025, Honeywell detailed an updated business segment structure ahead of the planned separation of its Aerospace Technologies business in the second half of 2026. [22]
After the aerospace spin, Honeywell itself will focus on three streamlined segments: [23]
- Building Automation
- Industrial Automation
- Process Automation and Technology
Management positions the post‑spin Honeywell as a pure‑play automation and industrial software leader, while the standalone aerospace business becomes one of the largest pure‑play aerospace suppliers globally.
BofA’s downgrade essentially says: yes, simplification usually creates value, but the road from here to 2026 may be bumpy, with below‑peer growth and execution risk. [24]
Other research, including Sahm Capital’s 2028 scenario and AInvest’s December note, sees the same breakup as a key catalyst for margin expansion, better focus and higher long‑term growth—provided Honeywell delivers on automation and digitalization. [25]
7. Board evolution: Indra Nooyi joins as independent director
On December 10, 2025, Honeywell announced that Indra Nooyi, former Chair and CEO of PepsiCo, has been appointed to its Board of Directors as an independent director, effective January 1, 2026. [26]
Key points:
- Nooyi brings deep experience in global strategy, portfolio transformation, and ESG‑driven leadership from her tenure at PepsiCo.
- The appointment lands just as Honeywell reorganizes its segments and prepares for the aerospace split—precisely the kind of strategic moment when experienced board oversight can matter most. [27]
Investors who favor strong corporate governance view this as a positive, long‑term signal, even though it doesn’t immediately change near‑term financials.
8. Institutional flows since November 21: who’s buying, who’s trimming?
Institutional investors have been rebalancing, not abandoning, Honeywell in recent filings highlighted since November 21:
- Journey Strategic Wealth LLC increased its HON position by 54.9% in Q2, to 6,047 shares (~$1.4 million), according to a November 21 MarketBeat alert. The same piece notes that analysts at the time still assigned Honeywell a “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target around $239.38. [28]
- Daiwa Securities Group Inc. raised its stake by 3.9%, to 227,031 shares worth about $52.9 million, as reported on December 9. That article reiterates that roughly 75.9% of Honeywell shares are owned by institutions and hedge funds and again cites the consensus price target around $236.65. [29]
- On December 11, a MarketBeat note reported that CIBC Asset Management trimmed its HON position by about 3.5%, selling just over 9,000 shares but still holding roughly a quarter‑million shares (worth nearly $60 million). [30]
Taken together, these moves point to fine‑tuning rather than capitulation: some large holders are locking in gains or adjusting exposure after the spin‑off and downgrade, while others are quietly adding on weakness.
9. Growth forecasts: what models say about Honeywell’s future
9.1 Analysts’ earnings and revenue projections
Simply Wall St’s forecast data (referenced in several of the November and December notes) indicates that: [31]
- Honeywell revenue is expected to grow in the low‑single to mid‑single digits annually through 2027 (roughly 3–5% per year).
- Earnings are forecast to grow somewhat faster than revenue, helped by mix shift and spin‑off effects, with EPS growth around the mid‑single digits annually.
- By 2028, several models see revenue near $45–46 billion and earnings around $7.5 billion, up from ~ $5.7 billion today.
These projections align with the DCF fair values in the $216–$242 band discussed earlier.
9.2 Quantitative price forecasts
Various algorithmic or purely quantitative sites offer shorter‑ and longer‑term price projections:
- PandaForecast cited a near‑term target around $189 for early December 2025, with “negative dynamics” and modest expected volatility—essentially calling for range‑bound or slightly weaker trading around current levels. [32]
- Long‑range sites like Longforecast publish multi‑year Honeywell price paths that differ substantially but generally imply moderate appreciation over several years, rather than explosive gains. [33]
These purely numeric forecasts can be useful as a reference but often ignore qualitative catalysts like management changes, spin‑off execution and macro shocks, so they should be taken with caution.
10. Key risks investors are watching
Across the research published since November 21, several common downside risks recur: [34]
- Below‑peer earnings growth
- BofA’s thesis hinges on Honeywell’s EPS growth trailing that of aerospace and industrial peers in 2026–2027, limiting re‑rating potential even after the breakup.
- Margin pressure and capital intensity
- Elevated P/B and P/S ratios plus slipping EBITDA margins mean Honeywell doesn’t have huge room for error on margins, particularly in Industrial Automation and Energy & Sustainability Solutions.
- Spin‑off execution risk
- The Solstice spin‑off is complete, and aerospace is next. Integration, separation costs, and market reception could all swing sentiment, especially if early results disappoint.
- Macro and end‑market exposure
- Honeywell sells into cyclical industries—aviation, manufacturing, energy, commercial real estate. A weaker global economic backdrop or prolonged industrial slowdown could dampen demand.
- Valuation risk
- Even after the pullback, Honeywell still trades at a premium to the broader industrials sector by some metrics, which can magnify downside in a risk‑off environment.
11. The bull case: why some see Honeywell stock as a 2026 opportunity
Recent bullish pieces—from Simply Wall St to AInvest and Jim Cramer’s commentary—build their case on a few common pillars: [35]
- Aerospace momentum: double‑digit growth and strong demand in commercial and defense aerospace are expected to continue, especially as Honeywell spins out a pure‑play aerospace giant.
- Automation and digitalization tailwinds: Honeywell’s push into AI‑assisted industrial automation (e.g., its Experion Operations Assistant pilot with TotalEnergies) and the Honeywell Forge platform provide recurring, software‑like revenue streams. [36]
- Portfolio focus: shedding Solstice and ultimately aerospace should leave a leaner, automation‑centric Honeywell, which many investors prefer to a diversified conglomerate.
- DCF‑based upside: multiple independent models show double‑digit upside to current prices if projected growth and margins materialize.
- Strong balance sheet and dividend: Honeywell continues to return cash to shareholders via a growing dividend (annualized around $4.76 per share, a yield near 2.5%), supported by robust cash flow. [37]
For long‑term, fundamentally oriented investors, these factors make HON look like a quality cyclical that’s temporarily out of favor.
12. So is Honeywell stock a buy after the 2025 pullback?
Whether Honeywell is attractive at current levels depends on how you weigh the risks vs. the potential reward:
On the plus side:
- The stock trades well below recent highs and below most fair‑value estimates from DCF‑style models. [38]
- The core businesses—especially aerospace—are growing and profitable, with Q3 showing robust demand and a guidance raise despite spin‑off noise. [39]
- Wall Street’s consensus still implies 20%+ upside over 12 months, even after factoring in BofA’s underperform rating. [40]
- Strategic moves (spin‑offs, segment reorg, Indra Nooyi’s appointment) support the narrative of a sharper, more focused Honeywell in the second half of this decade. [41]
On the minus side:
- The BofA double downgrade crystallizes legitimate worries about below‑peer growth and margin pressure over the next couple of years. [42]
- Spin‑off execution and macro uncertainty could easily delay or dilute the value‑unlock thesis. [43]
- Even after the pullback, Honeywell still isn’t “cheap” on every metric compared with industrial peers. [44]
For short‑term traders, HON may remain sensitive to every new analyst note and macro headline. For long‑term investors comfortable with moderate cyclicality and execution risk, the combination of high‑quality assets, structural tailwinds in aerospace and automation, and a discounted price vs. many fair‑value estimates could make Honeywell a candidate for deeper research.
Again, this overview is not financial advice. Before investing, consider your risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio mix—and, ideally, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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