Honeywell (HON) Stock Today: Price, Earnings, Breakup Plan and 2026 Forecast (December 1, 2025)

Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON) ended Monday, December 1, 2025 at $190.22, down about 1.0% on the day and roughly 16% below its 52‑week high near $228. ^[1]

Despite a soft share price in 2025, the company just delivered a Q3 2025 earnings beat, raised its full‑year guidance, completed the Solstice Advanced Materials spin‑off, and is preparing a high‑profile breakup into separate Aerospace and Automation companies by 2026. ^[2]

At the same time, Honeywell faces growth concerns and mixed analyst sentiment: Bank of America recently double‑downgraded the stock to Underperform, while most Wall Street firms still rate HON a Buy/Moderate Buy with 20–30% upside over the next 12 months. ^[3]

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at Honeywell stock as of December 1, 2025—covering the latest price action, Q3 2025 results, breakup strategy, analyst forecasts, and key risks for investors.

Honeywell (HON) share price on December 1, 2025

• Close: $190.22
• Day change: roughly ‑1.0%
• Intraday range: high around $192.15, low near $190
• Market cap: about $120–122 billion ^[4]
• Volume: ~3.2 million shares vs. ~4.6 million average daily volume (lighter‑than‑usual trading). ^[5]

Over the past 12 months, HON has traded between roughly $169 and $228, and sits about 16–17% below its 52‑week high and ~13% above its low. ^[6]

A MarketWatch recap of Monday’s session notes that Honeywell fell 1.03% to $190.22, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.53% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%—meaning HON underperformed slightly less than some major industrial peers like GE Aerospace and Johnson Controls. ^[7]

From a volatility perspective, Honeywell remains relatively defensive: its beta is around 0.9–1.0 (and its rolling one‑year beta is 0.73 in one low‑volatility screen), signalling lower swings than the broader market. ^[8]

2025 performance: Honeywell is lagging the industrials rally

Honeywell’s 2025 performance has been disappointing relative to the industrial sector:

• One recent analysis pegs year‑to‑date performance at –10.9%, with shares down 12.6% over the past 52 weeks, versus a +16% YTD gain and +6.3% one‑year return for the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). ^[9]
• Danelfin data shows Perf YTD –14.9% and Perf Year –16.7%, with the stock trading about 15–16% below its 52‑week high of $227.74. ^[10]

The IndexBox/Barchart review highlights that HON has traded below its 50‑day moving average since late July, despite a sharp 6–7% rally after Q3 earnings on October 23, 2025. ^[11]

In other words: fundamentals have improved, but the share price hasn’t followed through, reflecting investor skepticism about near‑term growth and the complex breakup plan.

Q3 2025 earnings: beat, record backlog and raised guidance

Honeywell’s Q3 2025 report was fundamentally strong:

• Revenue:$10.41 billion, +7% year‑over‑year; +6% organic. ^[12]
• GAAP EPS:$2.86, up 32% vs. $2.16 a year ago. ^[13]
• Adjusted EPS:$2.82, up 9% and beating consensus of about $2.57. ^[14]
• Operating margin:16.9%, down 220 bps;
• Segment margin:23.1%, down 50 bps, reflecting cost inflation and mix. ^[15]
• Free cash flow:$1.45 billion, down 16% year‑on‑year due to capex timing and working capital, but operating cash flow surged 65% to $3.29 billion. ^[16]

Demand and backlog were bright spots:

• Orders: up 22% to $11.9 billion, with book‑to‑bill >1. ^[17]
• Backlog: at a record level of roughly $39 billion, providing strong revenue visibility into 2026. ^[18]

By segment:

• Aerospace Technologies:
  • Organic sales +12%, led by +19% growth in commercial aftermarket and +10% in defense & space. ^[19]
  • Segment margin still a robust 26.1%, despite inflation and acquisition drag. ^[20]
• Building Automation:
  • Organic sales +7%, with segment margin expanding 80 bps to 26.7%; fire products posted a fourth straight quarter of double‑digit growth. ^[21]
• Industrial Automation:
  • Organic sales +1%, but segment margin slipped 150 bps to 18.8% on inflation and weak European demand. ^[22]
• Energy & Sustainability Solutions (ESS):
  • Organic sales –2%, with UOP licensing delays and lower catalyst sales offsetting growth in advanced materials; segment margin held flat at 24.5%. ^[23]

Guidance raised for 2025

Despite spinning off Solstice Advanced Materials in October, management raised full‑year 2025 guidance: ^[24]

• Sales:$40.7–$40.9B (up from $40.1–$40.6B post‑spin).
• Organic growth: about 6%, vs prior 4–5%.
• Adjusted EPS:$10.60–$10.70, up from an adjusted $10.24–$10.44 (after Solstice spin impact).
• Segment margin:22.9–23.0% (essentially steady vs prior guidance).
• Free cash flow:$5.2–$5.6B, unchanged.

Management did trim operating cash‑flow guidance to $6.4–$6.8B, acknowledging working‑capital and spin‑related effects. ^[25]

Overall, Q3 painted a picture of solid demand, strong cash generation and slightly pressured margins, with Honeywell using a robust order book to support higher 2025 earnings targets.

Breakup strategy and Solstice spin: three Honeywells by 2026

Honeywell is in the middle of a major portfolio transformation:

• The board has approved a plan to separate Automation and Aerospace into independent companies, alongside the spin‑off of Solstice Advanced Materials, creating three publicly listed businesses by the second half of 2026. ^[26]
• The company is reorganising its automation operations into three segments—Building Automation, Process Automation & Technology, and Industrial Automation—from 2026 onwards to align with the post‑separation structure. ^[27]

The Solstice spin‑off was completed on October 30, 2025, reducing 2025 sales guidance by about $0.7 billion and adjusted EPS by around $0.21, but leaving organic growth and margin ambitions intact. ^[28]

A Barchart analysis notes that Honeywell shares are down nearly 12% year‑to‑date and about 15% over the last six months, despite this transformation, as investors worry that the break‑up might not immediately accelerate growth, even if it sharpens strategic focus. ^[29]

At the same time, the breakup is seen as a potential value‑unlocking catalyst: RBC Capital, for example, has argued that the eventual Aerospace/Automation separation should unlock value and recently upgraded Honeywell to Outperform with a higher price target. ^[30]

Dividend and cash returns: a steady income story

Honeywell remains a dividend‑reliant total‑return story:

• The quarterly dividend was raised to $1.19 per share in late 2025, payable on December 5, 2025, bringing the annualized dividend to $4.76. ^[31]
• At the December 1 close of $190.22, that implies a dividend yield of roughly 2.5%. (Some services quote closer to 2.9% based on slightly lower recent prices.) ^[32]
• With free cash flow guided to $5.2–$5.6 billion, the dividend consumes only a portion of cash generation, leaving room for R&D, capex, M&A and share buybacks. ^[33]

Fintool highlights a free‑cash‑flow yield in the mid‑single digits on current valuation—around the 4–5% area when you compare ~$5.4B in FCF to a market cap near $120B. ^[34]

For long‑term income investors, Honeywell still looks like a “quality industrial dividend compounder,” albeit with some cyclical and restructuring noise in the near term.

Institutional flows: high ownership, some trimming at the margin

MarketBeat’s latest 13F round‑ups show that institutions own roughly 76% of Honeywell’s shares, underscoring its status as a core large‑cap industrial holding. ^[35]

Recent moves include:

• Shelton Capital Management trimmed its position by 3.1% in Q2, ending the quarter with about 76,500 shares worth $17.8 million. ^[36]
• Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management reduced its stake by 12.3%, to nearly 100,000 shares worth $23.3 million. ^[37]
• Okabena Investment Services initiated a new position of 1,334 shares, while several other firms—including Vanguard, Wellington, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs and Invesco—either added to or modestly increased their stakes over recent quarters. ^[38]

Taken together, the picture is one of broad, sticky institutional ownership with selective de‑risking on the margins rather than a wholesale exodus.

What Wall Street is saying: ratings and price targets

Across major data providers, Honeywell’s consensus view is cautiously positive:

Street consensus

• MarketBeat:
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on 17 analysts (1 Sell, 7 Hold, 8 Buy, 1 Strong Buy).
  • Average 12‑month price target:$239.38, with a range of $205–$270, implying about 26% upside from $190.22. ^[39]
• StockAnalysis.com:
  • 13 covering analysts; consensus rating “Buy.”
  • Average target:$242.15 (range $205–$270), implying ~27% upside.
  • Forecast 2025 revenue of $41.2B (+7.0%) and 2026 revenue of $40.3B (–2.1%), with EPS of $10.77 in 2025 (+23.6%) and $10.78 in 2026 (flat). ^[40]
• MarketWatch / TradingView / Danelfin:
  • Average target around $236–$236.11, again suggesting low‑ to mid‑20s percentage upside. ^[41]
• IndexBox/Barchart recap:
  • 22 analysts with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a mean price target of $240.75, roughly 26–27% above current levels. ^[42]

Notable upgrades and downgrades

The headline divergence comes from high‑profile rating moves:

• Bank of America:
  • Double‑downgraded HON from “Buy” to “Underperform” in November 2025, cutting its target from $265 to $205. BofA argues that while the planned split into Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation may enhance focus, it is unlikely to be an immediate growth catalyst. ^[43]
• RBC Capital:
  • Upgraded Honeywell to “Outperform” and raised its target to around $253, explicitly citing the upcoming separation as a value‑unlocking event for shareholders. ^[44]
• HSBC, TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley and others have trimmed price targets (e.g., HSBC from $290 to $266, TD Cowen from $250 to $240, Morgan Stanley from $245 to $235) but still sit in the Buy or Equal‑Weight camp. ^[45]
• Zacks Investment Research currently carries a Rank #3 (Hold) on HON, highlighting better near‑term value elsewhere in the industrial universe. ^[46]

AI and quant views

Danelfin’s AI‑driven model gives Honeywell an AI Score of 7/10 (Buy), estimating a 61% probability that HON outperforms the S&P 500 over the next 3 months, about 6 percentage points above the average US stock. ^[47]

It pegs the average analyst target at $236.11, implying roughly 23% upside over 12 months, and notes that the stock is down about 12% over the past quarter and ~15–17% over the past year, with a 52‑week range of $168.99–$227.74. ^[48]

A more cautious take: StockStory’s “think twice” argument

Not every research outlet is bullish. A December 1, 2025 note from StockStory lists Honeywell among two low‑volatility stocks to sell (or avoid), citing several concerns: ^[49]

1. Underperforming core business – Organic revenue growth has been patchy over the last two years, pushing management towards acquisitions to sustain growth.
2. Forecast revenue decline – Their model points to an expected 3.3% revenue drop over the next 12 months, suggesting demand may soften.
3. Eroding returns on capital – A gradual decline in returns suggests Honeywell’s historical profit engines are maturing.
4. Valuation – At a recent price near $191.70, they put Honeywell at about 18.7× forward earnings, which they see as rich given the growth profile. ^[50]

The StockStory note concludes that investors should “think twice” about including HON in a long‑term portfolio, preferring other opportunities with faster growth and stronger return trajectories.

Financial forecasts and valuation snapshot

Putting the pieces together:

• Earnings trajectory:
  • Honeywell’s own guidance and Sell‑Side forecasts both point to double‑digit EPS growth in 2025 (roughly +24%), followed by flat to slightly positive EPS in 2026 as the Solstice spin and separation costs flow through. ^[51]
• Revenue outlook:
  • 2025 revenue is expected to grow around 7%, then contract slightly (about –2%) in 2026 in consensus models as the portfolio reshapes and macro growth cools. ^[52]
• Valuation:
  • Using consensus 2025 EPS of roughly $10.7, the current price of $190.22 implies a forward P/E in the high‑teens (about 17–18×).
  • Trailing metrics show a P/E near 20× and a PEG around 2.7, according to recent MarketBeat data. ^[53]
  • Dividend yield sits near 2.5%, and free‑cash‑flow yield is around the mid‑4% range. ^[54]

Relative to many “quality industrials,” that leaves Honeywell trading at a premium to average cyclicals but a discount to some high‑growth peers, which helps explain why some analysts call it a “safe but not cheap” way to play aerospace, automation and energy transition themes.

Key risks to the Honeywell bull case

Investors following HON should keep several risks in mind:

1. Execution risk on the breakup
   • Separating Solstice, Aerospace and Automation into three listed companies is complex and expensive. Missteps could erode margins, delay synergies or lead to multiple contraction if markets worry about stranded costs. ^[55]
2. Margin pressure in Industrial Automation and ESS
   • Q3 showed margin compression in Industrial Automation and a small organic decline in ESS, with management already guiding to additional ESS margin pressure in Q4 2025. ^[56]
3. Macro and industrial cycle risk
   • Honeywell is leveraged to global capex, aerospace cycles and energy spending. A sharper‑than‑expected industrial slowdown or delayed project awards could dent the backlog conversion story. ^[57]
4. Regulatory and tariff headwinds
   • Management continues to flag tariff‑related cost inflation for aerospace and some ESS businesses, with pricing only expected to fully catch up into 2026. ^[58]
5. Valuation vs. slower growth
   • If 2026 revenue does indeed dip while EPS flattens, the market may be reluctant to pay an 18× multiple even for a high‑quality name, especially if interest rates remain elevated. ^[59]

Key catalysts to watch in 2026 and beyond

On the positive side, there are several potential upside catalysts:

• Aerospace strength – Double‑digit organic growth and high margins in Aerospace could support earnings even in a slower macro backdrop. ^[60]
• Backlog conversion – With a record backlog and strong orders, Honeywell has line‑of‑sight to sustained revenue growth if execution and supply chains hold. ^[61]
• Automation & software – Investments in Honeywell Forge and industrial software, plus higher R&D (about 4.6% of sales), aim to tilt the portfolio toward higher‑margin, recurring‑revenue streams. ^[62]
• Spin and separation – Completion of the Aerospace and Automation separation in 2026 could lead to multiple expansion if investors assign higher valuations to more focused pure‑plays. ^[63]
• Dividend growth and buybacks – With a stepped‑up dividend and strong FCF, Honeywell has room to continue returning cash, which may support total returns even if the share price grinds rather than surges. ^[64]

Is Honeywell (HON) stock a buy, hold, or sell right now?

As of December 1, 2025, the weight of public research and forecasts suggests:

• Quality & stability: Honeywell remains a high‑quality industrial franchise with diversified end‑markets, a strong balance sheet and a long dividend track record.
• Earnings momentum: 2025 numbers look solid, with raised guidance, a record backlog and improving aerospace and building automation trends.
• Valuation: The stock trades at a respectable but not bargain‑basement valuation—roughly a high‑teens forward P/E and a ~2.5% dividend yield.
• Street view: Most analysts see low‑to‑mid 20% upside over 12 months, but with a wide range of outcomes (targets from $205 to $270) and at least one major house (BofA) firmly in the Underperform camp. ^[65]
• Risk–reward: Quant and AI models tilt bullish (Danelfin’s 7/10 score), yet some fundamental shops like StockStory argue that slowing growth and weakening returns on capital justify caution. ^[66]

For long‑term, dividend‑oriented investors who can tolerate industrial cyclicality and restructuring risk, Honeywell still looks like a defensible, cash‑generative compounder that might re‑rate higher if the breakup goes smoothly.

For more growth‑ or momentum‑focused investors, the combination of sluggish 2026 growth forecasts, recent underperformance vs. peers, and complex restructuring may justify waiting for either clearer acceleration or a better entry price.

Either way, Honeywell is likely to remain a closely watched industrial bellwether through 2026 as Wall Street weighs the trade‑off between near‑term execution risk and longer‑term value creation from its portfolio overhaul.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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